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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

 
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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 7:59:38 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Don't make any hard plans yet. The situation is pretty fluid and there's immense pressure to act, so countermeasures might be reinstated, any place, any time.

To this point, mortality continues to drop steadily nationwide and in many states, so it doesn't yet seem that the increasing number of cases is similar to what we faced in February, March, April. I hope that proves true.

warspite1

Lol, no we are making no plans yet after the cancelling of plans for 2020... The idea of visiting Florida under the present conditions - even if the parks do open - holds zero appeal.

We have this strange situation where the contagiousness of the disease remains as powerful as ever, but I don't get any feel for how bad the disease actually is.

In Northern Italy, parts of Spain, the UK, France and the USA (to name but 5) you had large numbers of cases, leading to a great many deaths - including for so many doctors and nurses.

But now that does not seem to be the case. Why? I must confess I don't really know what is going on. But what I do know is that the seemingly reducing death rate is not helping when trying to impose lockdown on people who seem to have lost the fear factor. This, allied to the human need for people to get out and about means that getting people to obey social distancing (if re-imposed) may be difficult.

Just what the hell is going on with this thing?


What seems to be going on is that the young clubbing crowd who were locked out of Spring Break carousing saw a chink of light in the door opening and rushed out to make up for lost time. The fear factor was never really there, because the teenage/early 20s years are the age of invincibility (imagined). And of course, they were getting a steady message about how harmless the virus is to young people. They barely thought about the other people they would be coming in contact with after the club/beach/bar.
And now there is a rising chorus among physicians that after infected young people seem to be free for virus symptoms, they are exhibiting signs or organ damage and/or chronic fatigue syndrome. This thing is just nasty in every way.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 451
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 8:40:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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From everything I've read, the incidence of permanent damage is sporadic and relatively small.

All of the hullabaloo in the press and by politicians makes me nervous, thinking that the steady decline in mortality may level off or reverse. Thus far, no signs of that.

From a personal perspective, my level of concern remains 1, on a scale of 1-10. It peaked in March at 3, when there was so much unknown and the sky seemed to be the limit. The virus isn't a major concern but collateral damage (the cascade effect) is.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/26/2020 8:41:09 PM >

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 452
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 8:50:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here are the latest charts from Georgia. Steady increase in new cases for weeks now. Steady decrease in mortality since late April.

That's really remarkable. It's the reason I've posted so many comments the past few days about "something has to give." If cases go up, mortality has to also, right? Well, not so here (to date).

Many other states are in a similar situation.

That's why I have a concern level of 1 in a scale of 1-10. Protect the elderly and the vulnerable. But unless this thing is fatal to the working generations, okay, we continue working, just as we did during prior pandemics. Arguably, we had to shut the country down when skyrocketing mortality was the issue. If it isn't, no, we have to forge ahead.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/26/2020 9:29:42 PM >

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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 9:16:43 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From everything I've read, the incidence of permanent damage is sporadic and relatively small.

All of the hullabaloo in the press and by politicians makes me nervous, thinking that the steady decline in mortality may level off or reverse. Thus far, no signs of that.

From a personal perspective, my level of concern remains 1, on a scale of 1-10. It peaked in March at 3, when there was so much unknown and the sky seemed to be the limit. The virus isn't a major concern but collateral damage (the cascade effect) is.


Mortality as a percentage of infection rate should never be as high as it was. There is much that is not known but the medical establishment knows much more than it did. There is at least one anti-viral that has helped and at least one steroid. We knew nothing in the beginning, now we know many of the vectors it attacks along. We have learned, we are protecting the most vulnerable as best we can. The danger of being overwhelmed remains. Houston and Phoenix and Miami are close to the edge. We, the collective we, the entire country, will not let that happen. In some respects however, we ar3 further behind than we were in April. 92-95% of the population is still vulnerable to this. The average time to develop an effective vaccine is 20 years. The fastest vaccine ever developed, the one for mumps, took 4 years. There will not be a vaccine this year, it is unlikely there will be one next year. It is unlikely because it never has been done. Even if one is developed next year manufacturing hundreds of millions, if not billions of doses, will take time. Yes, mortality rate is lower, but, as Stalin said, Quantity has a Quality all it's own. Unless we slow the rate of infection there will be many millions infected, and we have not done much to slow this thing down. Every day is a new record. We are not winning

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 454
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 9:51:10 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


That's why I have a concern level of 1 in a scale of 1-10.



On what level though? The US as a whole? The USA as a whole with the caveat of higher concern about the apparent trouble spots? Georgia in isolation? Your home county and your own personal situation?

I'm not trying to have a pop - just trying to get a handle on where you are coming from. My own 'concern levels' vary pretty wildly depending on what perspective I look at the situation from.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 455
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 10:01:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yeah, I meant it personally - me, my family, my community.

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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 10:39:05 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I meant it personally - me, my family, my community.


That's fair enough. On an individual level I'm at 1 also. On a family level maybe 4 but that's through individual circumstance rather than the big picture.

On the numbers in the US at the moment I think things do remain up in the air. Looking at the case fatality rates I've got:

NY 7 day case peak vs 7 day death peak 10,000 vs 950 (daily) - 9.5%
US overall cases vs deaths 2.54mill vs 127,000 - 5%
7 day (daily) average for cases on 05/06 vs deaths on 15/06 - 25.4k vs 757 - 3.0%
7 day (daily) average for cases on 15/06 vs deaths on 25/06 - 22.4k vs 609 - 2.7%

So the good news is that the CFR is going down.

The reason for concern would be that the current CFR is 'only' 4 times lower than the peak CFR was in NY over two months ago. If cases in a certain area are doubling every week then to keep mortality stable the CFR would have to halve every week. On the current data that doesn't look like it is happening. Obviously we hope that in 2-3 weeks it will show otherwise. But for the moment we can only work with what we have.

One slightly counter-intuitive way of looking at the situation in the US is that you could almost argue that some states might have actually locked down too early. Potentially they have expended the large majority of their behavioural and economic 'wriggle room' at a time when the local risks were pretty low and are now in a situation where the numbers are looking grim but there is far less behavioural/economic resilience to the types of measures that might be required to get things back under control.



< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 6/26/2020 11:03:41 PM >

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Post #: 457
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 11:11:44 PM   
Canoerebel


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I agree with you. My wife and I were just discussing that. Compliance was high with the March lockdown, but I don't think it'll be as widespread if there's another. Certain areas (areas hard hit, or people perceiving a high risk), but in many areas, especially rural, semi-rural and suburban, no way.

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Post #: 458
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/26/2020 11:17:32 PM   
RangerJoe


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I agree as well about the lockdowns. With the closest known cases 30 kilometers or 20 miles away, why should we be locked down here? The apartment building that I live in has a common kitchen and dining room yet it was closed. It is now open with half of the chairs stacked up. Few people are using it, no puzzles have started, nor any BINGO games either. I will call bingo when it happens but they might have to tell me to lower my voice . . .

How do you get a bunch of old ladies to swear? Call BINGO before they do!

_____________________________

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
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Post #: 459
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 12:04:08 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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It's a difficult one though isn't it. We are blessed with 20/20 hindsight. If I'm an elected official in the US in late March, having seen what had already happened in Wuhan and Northern Italy and seeing that progression beginning to repeat itself in Spain/New York etc I'm going to find it very difficult to say lets carry on and wait till we start to get hit harder.

That more political angle aside I do think that as difficult as things might get in the next couple of months in Florida/Texas/California etc it is better to have an epidemic curve at 2-3% case mortality now than one at 5%+ a month or two ago.

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Post #: 460
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 12:25:36 AM   
RangerJoe


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With 20/20 hindsight, it would have been known to lock down the nursing homes and assisted living facilities and not force them to accept Covid-19 patients. It would have also been known to check the staff of those facilities at the start of every shift as well as during the shift if needed. Any business, governmental entity or organization should have also made it clear that if you are sick, stay home!

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 461
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 12:50:10 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

With 20/20 hindsight, it would have been known to lock down the nursing homes and assisted living facilities and not force them to accept Covid-19 patients. It would have also been known to check the staff of those facilities at the start of every shift as well as during the shift if needed. Any business, governmental entity or organization should have also made it clear that if you are sick, stay home!


Certainly agree on the care homes. I can't really comment on what happened in NY but in the UK at least I think the government got spooked by seeing the hospitals get overwhelmed in Italy and reacted by 'clearing the decks' on the wards. That almost certainly cost far more lives in the care homes than it saved in the hospitals. I don't think the 'hindsight' argument gets the UK government of the hook for that.

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Post #: 462
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 1:09:01 AM   
RangerJoe


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I have been a patient in a nursing home. The staff does not have the training for the care needed except for maybe the nurses but there are no quarantined rooms with a negative pressure with exhaust sent to the outside. That is the type of room needed and the staff needs to be trained with constant training for that type of situation so skill don't get old and forgotten. Assisted living facilities are even worse as far as the number of nurses per resident. Been there are well.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 463
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 2:08:48 AM   
RangerJoe


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This makes sense:

quote:

Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson will isolate from wife, Catherine, for entire football season


https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2020/06/26/wake-forests-dave-clawson-isolate-wife-catherine-cancer-football-season/3262622001/

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 464
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 2:28:21 AM   
Canoerebel


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He's got it backwards.


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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 3:01:30 AM   
Canoerebel


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The media has finally begun picking up on the disparity between rising cases and falling mortality, which we've been discussing here in great detail for a week or two. Today there were stories in The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. The latter seemed to miss the main focus in our discussions = that the biggest reason is protection of the elderly and vulnerable. Bloomberg is also all over the fact that death is a lagging indicator, stressing over and over that it can be "14 or 15 days," but missing the point that many states have had rising cases but falling mortality for far more than 14 or 15 days.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 466
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 3:04:47 AM   
Canoerebel


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And daily mortality in the US continues to decline. The rate of decrease seems to be slowing - the curve flattening. Over the next week, it'll be instructive to see if it begins to rise. Again, hoping for the best but wondering.




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Post #: 467
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 7:01:24 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The media has finally begun picking up on the disparity between rising cases and falling mortality, which we've been discussing here in great detail for a week or two. Today there were stories in The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. The latter seemed to miss the main focus in our discussions = that the biggest reason is protection of the elderly and vulnerable. Bloomberg is also all over the fact that death is a lagging indicator, stressing over and over that it can be "14 or 15 days," but missing the point that many states have had rising cases but falling mortality for far more than 14 or 15 days.


In the early stages of this, before the evidence was out on how it behaved, we failed to lock down early enough not knowing the spread was accelerated by a predominance od mild or asymptomatic cases as well as a lack of testing for symptomatic cases.

As predicted in the earlier thread, opening risky indoor businesses (bars, restaurants, hair cutting, tattooing, etc) before cases are low, Ro is below one and testing is high to provide possibility of track and trace, this will take off again.

You're stuck on mortality at a time when we know we won't see mortality figures. The rising of cases has happened in the past two weeks for the most part. With 3-14 day incubation (now thought to be sometimes longer), by the time you see the cases it's already well into exponential growth without extensive testing and then some isolation. By the end of the second week the severity usually sets in and it's only then most severe cases actually begin going to hospitals.

There is no silver lining in this recent second wave. It's bad. We hoped summer and measures would lessen it. That isn't happening.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 9:16:37 AM   
JohnDillworth


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Lower mortality in and of itself is a hollow victory. Lets exaggerate the numbers for a moment.
10% of 1 million is 100,000 dead
1% of 100 million is 100,000 dead

I know people that survived this are are back at work. They were really sick for a long time and may have permanent effects. We had one back in 2 weeks but most were out 6 weeks or longer. Some still can't stand or walk for long. Not dead is better then dead but hardly a victory. Many people are going to get sick. I'm starting to think that all those people that made all those sacrifices, the hundreds of thousands that got sick, the millions that lost their jobs, the lost business have all been for nothing. We are no better off then we were in March. The country did not quarantine long enough or effectively enough. Hope is a terrible strategy and it failed completely in the United States. Had we locked down hard in the first place, and I don't think much of the country did, and for just another 4 weeks, we would not be where we are now. Where we are now is not good.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 469
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 10:31:46 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


That's why I have a concern level of 1 in a scale of 1-10.



On what level though? The US as a whole? The USA as a whole with the caveat of higher concern about the apparent trouble spots? Georgia in isolation? Your home county and your own personal situation?

I'm not trying to have a pop - just trying to get a handle on where you are coming from. My own 'concern levels' vary pretty wildly depending on what perspective I look at the situation from.


Our concerns vary over time here. With a baby in mum's tummy for much of the pandemic, and a birth that happened days after the peak here in the UK our fears were mostly for my wife and child. We still all think we may have had it already, but not sure if there would be any protection for the little one from mum's antibodies. He did get his BCG immunization two weeks ago which is thought to offer some protection.

In my Borough of London we've fared relatively well, and since 99% of our time and interactions have taken place here during the past almost four months, we've felt somewhat less worried about seeing our friends once allowed and going to the store and parks. Waltham Forest has a 1 per 388 infection rate at present.

Wandsworth, where Sammy5IsAlive is based has 1 in 303. The hardest hit in London has been Southwark, at 1 in 223.

Personnel perspective is potentially misleading in terms of actual risk. In the States obviously the NYC area has a very high per capita infection rate, at 1 in 39 in NYC but even higher at 1 in 28 in Westchester County.

For Dan, Floyd County is much lower than NYC at 1 in 199 people infected. That is however, a higher rate than any area in London, another of the hardest hit urban areas. Georgia now as a whole has a higher new case rate per day than all of the UK over the past 7 days, with the highest of those being the past three days. The partying summertime festivities here might change that soon, although I hope the low case rate, sun, and outdoors keep the spread low.

We might all feel less risk in our own bubbles, but the data supports some care in terms of continued social distancing in many areas that haven't lowered case numbers or are seeing a daily increase, including mask wearing and other precautions, until this recent new wave is under control.





< Message edited by obvert -- 6/28/2020 8:10:23 PM >


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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 10:39:01 AM   
fcooke

 

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That's a tough one JD. I think it will be years before we really have the data (accurate that is) to figure out what the best approach to this thing would be. You really cannot lockdown. Still need to buy food unless you are on a farm. It will slow the spread and 'crush the curve', but until there is a vac it will be out there and the heartless part of me says we got to get out there again. And as stated earlier, the vac probably is not coming for a while. Meanwhile all kinds of collateral damage is occurring, and it going to take the over-taxed medical community a while to figure everything out, though as you mentioned, they are learning many things in the crucible.....tough way to learn.


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RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 11:56:37 AM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

That's a tough one JD. I think it will be years before we really have the data (accurate that is) to figure out what the best approach to this thing would be. You really cannot lockdown. Still need to buy food unless you are on a farm. It will slow the spread and 'crush the curve', but until there is a vac it will be out there and the heartless part of me says we got to get out there again. And as stated earlier, the vac probably is not coming for a while. Meanwhile all kinds of collateral damage is occurring, and it going to take the over-taxed medical community a while to figure everything out, though as you mentioned, they are learning many things in the crucible.....tough way to learn.



Yes, you can really lockdown. One only need to look at NYC. look at Korea, look at most of Western Europe............They didn't need to be prefect, they just needed to be good. They were good and the results speak for themselves. They are where the rest of the country needs to be. Not perfect, but any uptick can quickly be tamped down until there is a vaccine. Texas and Florida can lockdown again now, or lockdown again later, but there is not other way forward. They tried the easy way. There is not easy way. Infections are higher than they were in March. That is astonishing. That should not have happened. You know what else is years away? Single digit unemployment, manageable deficients, restoration of the economic ruin of many lives and business, economic growth, tourists, nice vacations, safely going to gyms, bars, restaurants, sporing events and movie theaters. But hey, we got haircuts.

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 6/27/2020 8:16:36 PM >


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 472
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 4:40:53 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

JohnDillworth: But hey, we got haircuts.


You forgot manicures, pedicures and massages!

Lockdown here has never meant not being able to go out for essentials. Grocery stores limited the number of customers in the store, required masks, set up one-way aisles and disinfected hands and carts. It worked well, except for the queueing in the cold before spring. I hope we don't have to do it in the depths of winter.

I think the comment on mortality not being the key consideration is correct when looking at getting the economy moving again. Europe is already banning travel from the USA because of the outbreaks which indicate the epidemic is not controlled enough to take a chance on travel from there. Here in Canada, we changed the border lockdown to allow some residents of Alaska who were in the lower 48 to pass through on their way back to Alaska. But the rule was, no tarrying on the way back - get gas, get takeout food and rest in the vehicle at rest stops. Within a few days, Alaskan vehicles were seen spending days at Banff National Park. That stirred a considerable resentment against US visitors. I haven't followed closely enough to know if restrictions were re-imposed for Alaskan pass-through, but opening of the border to general travel is certain to be delayed.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 473
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/27/2020 5:00:13 PM   
BBfanboy


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The race for a vaccine seems to have a few good candidates. A week or so back, the UK announced that trials on hamsters had shown a vaccine they were developing (at Oxford?) had proven very effective and they were moving on to human trials immediately. Because of the lag time on giving a large number of people the vaccine and then comparing with the spread of the virus in the general population months later, they estimated the earliest possible production would be April 2021. The good news was that the vaccine type is very easy to produce and could be scaled up very rapidly with producers around the world.

Meanwhile, Brazil is so desperate for a way out of its epidemic that it is going to use a new vaccine right away:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/27/world/americas/27reuters-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine.html

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 474
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/28/2020 12:15:33 AM   
RangerJoe


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Well, I guess that the hamsters are feeling safer now that there is a vaccine for them . . .

Either that, or move to the Lake of the Woods county in the very northern Minnesota:

quote:

Lake of the Woods County, the only county in the state that is yet to record a single COVID-19 case, is one of the state’s most northern, bordering Canada and the eponymous lake. Cook County — also in far northern Minnesota — recorded its first positive case of COVID-19 in early June.

The region’s biggest county, St. Louis County, has so far seen a total of 75 cases per 100,000 residents throughout the entire epidemic. Put in context, Stearns County has seen its COVID-19 case rate grow by more than 75 cases per 100,000 in a single day — four different times.


https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/06/25/four-ways-covid19-has-hit-different-parts-of-the-state

With so few cases, why should that area be locked down and its economy trashed?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 475
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/28/2020 12:18:05 AM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's got it backwards.




He got it the right way. He may see over 100 people a day and his wife had cancer so she is at a greater risk.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 476
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/28/2020 12:21:10 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15482
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's got it backwards.




He got it the right way. He may see over 100 people a day and his wife had cancer so she is at a greater risk.

I think Dan meant that the Coach should have decided to spend the time with his wife rather than with the football team. She has cancer, after all.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 477
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/28/2020 1:05:02 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's got it backwards.




He got it the right way. He may see over 100 people a day and his wife had cancer so she is at a greater risk.

I think Dan meant that the Coach should have decided to spend the time with his wife rather than with the football team. She has cancer, after all.


Had cancer, it left her blood counts low.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 478
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/28/2020 7:37:53 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The race for a vaccine seems to have a few good candidates. A week or so back, the UK announced that trials on hamsters had shown a vaccine they were developing (at Oxford?) had proven very effective and they were moving on to human trials immediately. Because of the lag time on giving a large number of people the vaccine and then comparing with the spread of the virus in the general population months later, they estimated the earliest possible production would be April 2021. The good news was that the vaccine type is very easy to produce and could be scaled up very rapidly with producers around the world.

Meanwhile, Brazil is so desperate for a way out of its epidemic that it is going to use a new vaccine right away:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/27/world/americas/27reuters-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine.html


The Oxford and Astrazeneca vaccine was in human trials about two months ago after some success in chimpanzee trials.

They're looking at going into production much sooner than next spring should the phase three trials prove successful.

The British drugmaker has already begun large-scale, mid-stage human trials of the vaccine, which was developed by researchers at University of Oxford.

This week, AstraZeneca signed its tenth supply-and-manufacturing deal.

“Certainly in terms of how advanced they are, the stage at which they are, they are I think probably the leading candidate,” WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan told a news conference.

“So it’s possible they will have results quite early.”

Swaminathan said Moderna’s (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccine candidate was “not far behind” AstraZeneca’s, among more than 200 candidates, 15 of which have entered clinical trials.

“We do know that Moderna’s vaccine is also going to go into phase three clinical trials, probably from the middle of July, and so that vaccine candidate is not far behind,” she said.

“But I think AstraZeneca certainly has a more global scope at the moment in terms of where they are doing and planning their vaccine trials.”


< Message edited by obvert -- 6/28/2020 7:38:19 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 479
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 6/28/2020 2:50:43 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15482
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The race for a vaccine seems to have a few good candidates. A week or so back, the UK announced that trials on hamsters had shown a vaccine they were developing (at Oxford?) had proven very effective and they were moving on to human trials immediately. Because of the lag time on giving a large number of people the vaccine and then comparing with the spread of the virus in the general population months later, they estimated the earliest possible production would be April 2021. The good news was that the vaccine type is very easy to produce and could be scaled up very rapidly with producers around the world.

Meanwhile, Brazil is so desperate for a way out of its epidemic that it is going to use a new vaccine right away:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/27/world/americas/27reuters-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine.html


The Oxford and Astrazeneca vaccine was in human trials about two months ago after some success in chimpanzee trials.

They're looking at going into production much sooner than next spring should the phase three trials prove successful.

The British drugmaker has already begun large-scale, mid-stage human trials of the vaccine, which was developed by researchers at University of Oxford.

This week, AstraZeneca signed its tenth supply-and-manufacturing deal.

“Certainly in terms of how advanced they are, the stage at which they are, they are I think probably the leading candidate,” WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan told a news conference.

“So it’s possible they will have results quite early.”

Swaminathan said Moderna’s (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccine candidate was “not far behind” AstraZeneca’s, among more than 200 candidates, 15 of which have entered clinical trials.

“We do know that Moderna’s vaccine is also going to go into phase three clinical trials, probably from the middle of July, and so that vaccine candidate is not far behind,” she said.

“But I think AstraZeneca certainly has a more global scope at the moment in terms of where they are doing and planning their vaccine trials.”


Thanks - that clarifies the connection between Oxford and the drug company. It gets confusing with all the various research efforts reporting their progress and the media giving hopeful broadcast of their chances. The hamster results I was mentioning came in a BBC broadcast, but I didn't make a note at the time of the research group that achieved it.

And far from making hamsters happy that they can be immune to the virus, it makes them nervous that we now have a contamination free source of food ...

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to obvert)
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