The situation in the US is interesting and counterintuitive. Something has to give, soon.
1. The 7-day rolling average continues its long decline. That's good.
2. The 7-day rolling average of new cases is increasing, as the improving situation in NY and vicinity is more than countered by increases elsewhere. That's not good.
3. With cases rising, how can mortality be dropping? If it's the lag period, then mortality will soon increase. The gradual decline in new cases ended about two weeks ago, so rising mortality should kick in soon, if there's a correlation (as you'd expect).
4. Cases have been rising in Georgia since about May 25, but mortality continues to decline steadily. If there is a lag in Georgia, it's nearing a month. That's long enough to begin to strain credibility.
5. Could the new cases be more often asymptomatic or mild, so that not as many are hospitalized or dying? Maybe. In my county, we've had a steady increase in new cases over the past month or more, but the number of hospitalizations is holding steady at seven. Ditto total mortality at 15 (no new deaths since late May).
But maybe this county and state are outliers, the data flattering only to deceive. We should know soon - local, state and nationwide.
Dan, I think part of the disparity can be explained by the high concentration of cases in the NYC area and others that overwhelmed their medical systems back in April. I believe that many of those deaths could have been avoided if the capacity to treat them properly was available. Despite the widespread rising case numbers now, they are just that... widespread.
Using NC as an example, we have had record numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations for the last week or more, with the numbers still slowly climbing. Despite that, we are still at no more than 10% of the ICU bed capacity in the state. Everyone who needs medical care has it available, for now and likely for a long time, in NC.
So, I think the 7 day moving average of Daily Deaths is decreasing toward something resembling the actual mortality rate of the virus from it's inflated earlier peak.
At no time were New York hospitals overwhelmed. At no time was a bed or treatment unavailable. No one in New York did not get a bed if they needed one. No one in New York was denied a ventilator. New York got killed because we thought we had a couple more weeks only to learn the virus was already here for a month plus density. There is not other place in the country as dense as NYC, particularly the neighborhoods that got hit hardest.
< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 6/24/2020 6:11:14 PM >
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly