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OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 5:39:58 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2093
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
Gents,

I'm going to start this hopefully non-political thread with some good news from Korea. I hope the moderators don't mind.

That Itaewon club cluster we had from May 1 has all but died down. They counted about 170 cases as coming from it in all. Our nationwide tally of new cases on Sunday was 15, with 10 of those coming in at the airport. As I predicted, the system here handled the outbreak pretty well and we are back to single-digit domestic cases. Although the panic level has reached a higher plane for some people, and there's some increased pessimism in polls, I personally am reassured by how this played out.

Here's today's news story: Virus cases stay low amid respite from club infections

Here's a story which shows some pessimism amongst the Korean populace: More Seoul residents worried about COVID-19 lasting longer: poll

Here's an interesting snippet from that poll story:

"Despite the less optimistic outlook, the poll showed that the city's residents were mostly against going back to social distancing.

"Some 59.2 percent favored sustaining the current degree of 'everyday quarantine,' while 39.3 percent opted for returning to the social distancing campaign that ended on May 5."


One thing to note is these "campaigns" are really just guidelines. They give cover to people or entities who wish to act a certain way, such as Costco requiring customers wear masks or people requesting Zoom rather than face-to-face meetings. With very few exceptions (nightclubs for part of this) private businesses have always been free to stay open. Things the government controls directly are returning to normal, as public museums, palaces and the like just opened last weekend and public schools are set to re-open in two days.

I have another possible post on East vs. West responses to all this. I'll read the tea leaves (no pun intended) before posting anything. Maybe tomorrow. There are a lot of interesting theories, but knowing for sure as to what has caused the disparate impact of this virus on different countries will take months or years of studies.

EDIT: I'd be interested to hear what kind of easing (or un-easing) is going on in your respective necks of the woods.

Cheers,
CB

< Message edited by CaptBeefheart -- 5/18/2020 5:41:29 AM >


_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.
Post #: 1
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 7:35:37 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14026
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Gents,

I'm going to start this hopefully non-political thread with some good news from Korea. I hope the moderators don't mind.

That Itaewon club cluster we had from May 1 has all but died down. They counted about 170 cases as coming from it in all. Our nationwide tally of new cases on Sunday was 15, with 10 of those coming in at the airport. As I predicted, the system here handled the outbreak pretty well and we are back to single-digit domestic cases. Although the panic level has reached a higher plane for some people, and there's some increased pessimism in polls, I personally am reassured by how this played out.

Here's today's news story: Virus cases stay low amid respite from club infections

Here's a story which shows some pessimism amongst the Korean populace: More Seoul residents worried about COVID-19 lasting longer: poll

Here's an interesting snippet from that poll story:

"Despite the less optimistic outlook, the poll showed that the city's residents were mostly against going back to social distancing.

"Some 59.2 percent favored sustaining the current degree of 'everyday quarantine,' while 39.3 percent opted for returning to the social distancing campaign that ended on May 5."


One thing to note is these "campaigns" are really just guidelines. They give cover to people or entities who wish to act a certain way, such as Costco requiring customers wear masks or people requesting Zoom rather than face-to-face meetings. With very few exceptions (nightclubs for part of this) private businesses have always been free to stay open. Things the government controls directly are returning to normal, as public museums, palaces and the like just opened last weekend and public schools are set to re-open in two days.

I have another possible post on East vs. West responses to all this. I'll read the tea leaves (no pun intended) before posting anything. Maybe tomorrow. There are a lot of interesting theories, but knowing for sure as to what has caused the disparate impact of this virus on different countries will take months or years of studies.

EDIT: I'd be interested to hear what kind of easing (or un-easing) is going on in your respective necks of the woods.

Cheers,
CB


Thanks for starting this and posting such interesting stuff!

The UK is easing measures slowly, but it appears the London area is quite low in transmission rate, or Ro, compared to other parts of the UK. We're starting to be able to go out and meet some people, one at a time, but even that is a relief. Hard not to see friends for this long.

I look forward to reading the first section of E v W. I started and then had to go on diaper duty here.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 2
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 7:37:43 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14026
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
This is a different view of the effects of the virus. This guy works for the Centre for Tropical medicine, and knows his stuff when it comes to exotic diseases. He has had a long drawn out struggle with Covid showing multiple different symptoms over the course of seven (!) weeks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/15/weird-hell-professor-advent-calendar-covid-19-symptoms-paul-garner

Garner refers to himself wryly as a member of the “Boris Johnson herd immunity group”. This is the cluster of patients who contracted Covid-19 in the 12 days before the UK finally locked down. He assumed his illness would swiftly pass. Instead it went on and on – a rollercoaster of ill health, extreme emotions and utter exhaustion, as he put it in a blog last week for the British Medical Journal.

There is growing evidence that the virus causes a far greater array of symptoms than was previously understood. And that its effects can be agonisingly prolonged: in Garner’s case for more than seven weeks. The professor at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine says his experience of Covid-19 featured a new and disturbing symptom every day, akin to an “advent calendar”.


< Message edited by obvert -- 5/18/2020 1:56:52 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 3
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 7:43:30 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9164
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
Thanks for starting this CB, hopefully folks can stay on track.

Here in Maryland USA the phased 're-opening' is mostly creating confusion, and many are upset over losing their businesses and jobs, which is completely understandable. It appears that the hospitals have been ready for a possible influx of patients for a couple weeks, so using their inability to handle such an event as a reason for continued shutdowns is not agreeing with everyone.

The Mayor of our big beach area, Ocean City, Md, announced that he was opening the beach and the next day the Governor of Maryland announced that he was starting 'Phase 1' of the re-opening, causing speculation that the Gov didn't want to deal with O.C. going their own way. However, several counties disagreed with the Gov and will not begin to reopen.

Overall, I don't see any change that would encourage a reopening [O.C. needs to be open for Memorial Day just like the beach in Jaws]. Here in Md every day there are hundreds of 'new cases' discovered and more importantly 40-70 people die. Every Day. No personal testing is available [except for the privileged and the sick], no medication for the cytokine storm is available, there are no N95 masks anywhere [ok the helath care folks have them as they should]. Dozens of us can mill about in Walmart or Price Club, but the Automatic Car Wash is closed. And we still have no paper products or cleaning products, and they are predicting [and some are reporting] food shortages and price increases. However, Gas is $1.80/Gallon, woohoo

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 4
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 11:50:14 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
House Party In Minnesota Creates 17 New COVID-19 Cases: Officials
Officials say the outbreak from the house party "demonstrates the highly contagious nature of COVID-19."

quote:

OLMSTED COUNTY, MN — Seventeen people contracted coronavirus following a house party in southern Minnesota last month, health officials announced Friday. Olmsted County Public Health launched an investigating after a recent outbreak of COVID-19 they say stemmed from the gathering in mid-April.

People who attended the party then brought the virus to other households and workplaces, according to a news release.

"Without the work of our epidemiologists and the full and honest cooperation of all individuals involved, this situation could have been much worse," stated Graham Briggs, Olmsted County Public Health Services Director.

"On behalf of Public Health, and the community, we thank them for helping stop further spread of this virus in our community."


https://patch.com/minnesota/southwestminneapolis/s/h479b/house-party-minnesota-spawns-17-new-covid-19-cases-officials

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 5
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 11:58:03 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Sly Thieves, Young Heroes

quote:

A delightful mystery has been solved in a Fairfax City, Virginia. During the coronavirus health crisis, people have been stepping out of their shoes at the door at night, only to find the next morning their footwear was stolen as they slept.

What the heck is going on?

Police wondered, too.

The sly culprits?

Foxes have been taking the shoes to their dens and using them as toys.
.
.
.
3 Brothers Save The Day

Three young brothers (top photo) were playing in their yard in Colorado when they noticed a fire at their neighbor's house. They didn't hesitate. They found a fire extinguisher from the garage and gave it their mother to help extinguish the blaze before the fire department could arrive. Their dad is a firefighter, and they've learned a lot from him, and the oldest drew pictures to help investigators pinpoint the source of the fire. By Amber Fisher on Arvada Patch.


https://patch.com/minnesota/across-mn/s/h46qh/13-good-news-stories-sly-thieves-young-heroes-haircut-helper

There are more good, short stories there.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 6
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 12:33:17 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
FREE DRUGS!

How To Get Free Or Discounted Prescription Drugs During The Coronavirus Crisis
Pharmacies across the U.S. are stepping up to help consumers find affordable medications.

quote:

Even before Dustin Quinn, 33, became one of the 30 million Americans to lose their jobs during the coronavirus pandemic, she was just getting by. Working 24 hours a week for $12.25 per hour at the front desk of a hotel in Fargo, N.D., she made enough, barely, to cover expenses.

So being laid off quickly triggered her own financial crisis. First, Quinn's car was repossessed when she could no longer make car loan payments. Next, she was threatened with eviction from her apartment.

Another worry: How would she pay for her two anti-anxiety prescriptions?

At $60 for a three-month supply, it was sometimes a challenge to cover them even before she lost her part-time job. And now, with no income, no car, and possibly no place to live, she had no idea how she would be able to pay for her needed medication. And the prospect of being without them seemed frightening.

"Not having that secure paycheck every two weeks was tough," Quinn says. "I was worried."

Thankfully, for people in Quinn's situation help is available.

For example, some small independent pharmacies are stepping up to help people in their communities get medication during the ongoing emergency. "Our first and only responsibility is to take care of our customers and our community," says Tom DePietro, Pharm.D., owner of DiPietro's Pharmacy in Dunmore, Pa., who started offering free prescriptions to the unemployed in March. "It's worth it."

Other pharmacies, including some large ones, such as certain CVS and Walgreens stores, are highlighting long-standing but not well-known programs that allow them to register with federal or state health clinics to provide prescriptions free or at sharply reduced prices.

Several hundred nonprofit pharmacies located across the country, often run by charities such as the Society of St. Vincent de Paul, say they have seen a spike in the people seeking their help, which can include providing free prescriptions to people in need.

There are other ways to get help with your drugs, too, including registering for programs offered by drugmakers and signing up for Medicaid.

That's what ultimately helped Quinn. Her state, North Dakota, was one of 36 that, since the last recession in 2007 to 2009, has made it easier for people to sign up for Medicaid. Her application was quickly processed and approved, she says. And her next prescriptions will cost her only $2 each.

Here's more about the ways you can get free or low-cost drugs during the ongoing crisis.
Talk With Your Local Pharmacist

DiPietro remembers the exact moment he decided to offer unemployed people in his community free prescriptions. He was standing outside his house, watching his daughter drawing with chalk on the sidewalk, thinking how lucky he was—and how worried he was about people who had lost their jobs.

Soon after, he announced a new program: Show proof of unemployment and he will give local patients a 90-day supply of any generic drug they need. "I'm taking a loss on every prescription," DePietro says.

"No one is paying me for this." He estimates it will cost him upward of $10,000. But, he says, "It's worth it."

News of his response to the crisis spread to Pittsburgh, prompting another store, Asti's Pharmacy, to offer a similar program for its local customers. Provide proof you lost your job, and co-owner Chris Antypas, Pharm.D., will give you a 90-day supply of most generic drugs free of charge.

Even though the pharmacy has promoted its new program, "most patients still may not be aware we offer it," Antypas says.

So if you're struggling financially to get the drugs you need, he recommends asking your local independent pharmacist if they can help out. "Ask if they have any specific savings programs that could help you," he says, "otherwise they might not be aware you're facing a hardship."

Even if you haven't lost your job, "pharmacists are experts at finding low-cost, affordable options for patients," Antypas says.


https://patch.com/us/across-america/how-get-free-or-discounted-prescription-drugs-during-coronavirus-crisis

There is more information there if you need it.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 1:11:18 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15024
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
Here in Canada the outbreak has reached its peak but the decline is looking gradual - as expected. The border with the US is "closed" until June 21 (although it was always open for "trade", thank goodness).
Food stores have stayed open throughout the lockdown but have had to limit the number of patrons at a time. It was a nasty experience lining up for an hour in record low temperatures for our spring in April, but shirtsleeve weather is finally here and the lineups aren't bad because people will go in the morning (when it was bitterly cold before almost no one did).

Most people have a mask of some kind now, but only put it on when they are going into the lineup or in the store. They spray your hands before entry but I have taken to wearing nitrile gloves anyway. I want them on for the elevator buttons and door handles when I get home to my high-rise apartment.

The virus seems pretty much contained except for care homes which are being hit very hard - attributed to close quarters, communal facilities like dining rooms and TV/games lounges, poor staff training before the virus arrived and lack of PPE for staff.

Each province is handling the easing of the lockdown in their own way. Two weeks ago Manitoba opened sports stores , nail salons and such with limits on the number of customers and measures like plexiglass shields for the nail salons. The customer sticks their hands through an opening and both customer and esthetician wear masks. Premiers are worried about opening bars because the whole point of the bar experience is for people to mix and the alcohol ensures no one will pay attention to any rules.

Lots of people out jogging and cycling, but we have lots of space in our urban sprawl.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 8
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 1:20:12 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Here in Canada the outbreak has reached its peak but the decline is looking gradual - as expected. The border with the US is "closed" until June 21 (although it was always open for "trade", thank goodness).
Food stores have stayed open throughout the lockdown but have had to limit the number of patrons at a time. It was a nasty experience lining up for an hour in record low temperatures for our spring in April, but shirtsleeve weather is finally here and the lineups aren't bad because people will go in the morning (when it was bitterly cold before almost no one did).

Most people have a mask of some kind now, but only put it on when they are going into the lineup or in the store. They spray your hands before entry but I have taken to wearing nitrile gloves anyway. I want them on for the elevator buttons and door handles when I get home to my high-rise apartment.

The virus seems pretty much contained except for care homes which are being hit very hard - attributed to close quarters, communal facilities like dining rooms and TV/games lounges, poor staff training before the virus arrived and lack of PPE for staff.

Each province is handling the easing of the lockdown in their own way. Two weeks ago Manitoba opened sports stores , nail salons and such with limits on the number of customers and measures like plexiglass shields for the nail salons. The customer sticks their hands through an opening and both customer and esthetician wear masks. Premiers are worried about opening bars because the whole point of the bar experience is for people to mix and the alcohol ensures no one will pay attention to any rules.

Lots of people out jogging and cycling, but we have lots of space in our urban sprawl.


If you tear or forget your gloves, use a copper or brass key on the elevator buttons. Copper zaps the virus.

The alcohol might ensure that some people completely ignore the social distancing guidelines. If fact, they might get very close . . .

Manitoba is a nice city . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 9
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 1:22:20 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Wisconsin COVID-19 Case Total Tops 12,500
Wisconsin added more than 350 new COVID-19 cases to its total, but reported no new fatalities from the virus.
May 17, 2020

quote:

MADISON, WI — The total number of COVID-19 cases in Wisconsin jumped Sunday to more than 12,500, an increase of more than 350 from Saturday. Total fatalities from tjhe virus remained at 453 as of Sunday afternoon.

The increase of 353 new COVID-19 cases in the state over the last 24 hours is down fro tje inceeae of more than 500 Saturday.

Here are the latest COVID-19 figures in Wisconsin as of Sunday:

Positive Test Results: 12,543
Negative Test Results: 139,674
Hospitalizations: 2,038
Deaths: 453


https://patch.com/wisconsin/hudson-wi/s/h48bk/wisconsin-covid-19-case-total-tops-12-500

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 10
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 1:28:20 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Does this much rain wash the corona virus away?

Wisconsin Town Saw 6 Inches Of Rain Sunday
Here are the rainfall totals from this weekend in Wisconsin.

quote:

6 CEDAR GROVE, WI
5.76 BELGIUM, WI
5.2 FREDONIA, WI
4.5 RACINE, WI
4.5 RIPON, WI
4.21 SHEBOYGAN, WI
4.14 PORT WASHINGTON, WI
4.13 BERLIN, WI
4 MEQUON, WI


https://patch.com/wisconsin/hudson-wi/s/h49tx/wisconsin-town-saw-6-inches-rain-sunday

There are more towns listed but it appears that the area between Milwaukee and Chicago got hit hard. I am sure that it kept people inside. With that much moisture in the air, the airborne viral load probably really went down.

So, have a nice day no matter the weather because it can get worse!

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 11
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 1:29:38 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
With all of the problems at the meat packing plants, here are the US rules again if anybody wants to read them:

Meat and Poultry Processing Workers and Employers
Interim Guidance from CDC and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/organizations/meat-poultry-processing-workers-employers.html

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 12
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 1:31:15 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19012
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Open revolt accelerating in Philadelphia area, which should be in full lockdown, but all around businesses & social groups even gyms opening up without permission. Some towns are opening without county permission or state permission. Traffic is returning to heavy levels.

My wife talked to her hair dresser this morning (hair dresser called), turns out she has been treating people for at least the last 2 weeks in her home, or making house visits. She says all the hair dressers have been doing this all along but they are being bold now working thru their customer lists.

Lawsuits, counter lawsuits, criminal investigations, some draconian enforcement and other areas law enforcement siding with the business.

It is a mess.






(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 13
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 1:53:14 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 6847
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Does this much rain wash the corona virus away?

Wisconsin Town Saw 6 Inches Of Rain Sunday
Here are the rainfall totals from this weekend in Wisconsin.

quote:

6 CEDAR GROVE, WI
5.76 BELGIUM, WI
5.2 FREDONIA, WI
4.5 RACINE, WI
4.5 RIPON, WI
4.21 SHEBOYGAN, WI
4.14 PORT WASHINGTON, WI
4.13 BERLIN, WI
4 MEQUON, WI


https://patch.com/wisconsin/hudson-wi/s/h49tx/wisconsin-town-saw-6-inches-rain-sunday

There are more towns listed but it appears that the area between Milwaukee and Chicago got hit hard. I am sure that it kept people inside. With that much moisture in the air, the airborne viral load probably really went down.

So, have a nice day no matter the weather because it can get worse!


I live north of Chicago, and I can testify it rained a ****-ton over the last 48 hours! I live near the north branch of the Chicago River, and it's way over it's banks into the adjacent forest. My house still dry, thankfully.....but supposed to crest later today

_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 14
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 3:01:38 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Does this much rain wash the corona virus away?

Wisconsin Town Saw 6 Inches Of Rain Sunday
Here are the rainfall totals from this weekend in Wisconsin.

quote:

6 CEDAR GROVE, WI
5.76 BELGIUM, WI
5.2 FREDONIA, WI
4.5 RACINE, WI
4.5 RIPON, WI
4.21 SHEBOYGAN, WI
4.14 PORT WASHINGTON, WI
4.13 BERLIN, WI
4 MEQUON, WI


https://patch.com/wisconsin/hudson-wi/s/h49tx/wisconsin-town-saw-6-inches-rain-sunday

There are more towns listed but it appears that the area between Milwaukee and Chicago got hit hard. I am sure that it kept people inside. With that much moisture in the air, the airborne viral load probably really went down.

So, have a nice day no matter the weather because it can get worse!


I live north of Chicago, and I can testify it rained a ****-ton over the last 48 hours! I live near the north branch of the Chicago River, and it's way over it's banks into the adjacent forest. My house still dry, thankfully.....but supposed to crest later today


I knew some people living in Waukegan a long time ago. I presume that she is now deceased, I know that he is. At least he was a nice guy, she was a . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 15
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 3:47:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
First, thanks to Captain Beefheart for resurrecting this topic. It's been a lot of fun and very useful, despite the occasional blemishes. We all have very strong feelings about political and related matters, but its doubtful that in expressing ourselves strongly we changed anybody's mind on major issues.

As you know, I have a personal interest in how the state of Georgia is doing. It's also of general interest because, as John Dillworth pointed out many weeks ago, it is the bellwether for how easing countermeasures may go in the US.

As of this morning, Georgia's Rt has dropped to 0.77, tied for 5th lowest in the country. This a month after easing countermeasures began and three weeks after shelter-in-place measures expired. Too, this is despite the one hotspot that cropped up (in the Gainesville area, related to a poultry-processing plant). While the wheels could still come off it seems that under the circumstances present here, the right decisions were made to try to get the state moving forward again.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 16
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 4:54:17 PM   
Nomad

 

Posts: 4651
Joined: 9/5/2001
From: West Yellowstone, Montana
Status: offline
One thing I like about that picture is that Montana ( MT ) is the lowest.

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Post #: 17
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 5:01:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
A week or two back, Montana schools were given the option of re-opening (per a radio news item). I know that some did but the news blurb didn't make it clear if all did. How is that going?

(in reply to Nomad)
Post #: 18
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 5:14:07 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19012
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
CDC Data All deaths, Covid Deaths (covid either tested or presumed).

The cumulative death rate going forward for a while will be below average...IF the virus is exhausted. The law of averages re-asserting itself.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/18/2020 5:21:20 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 19
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 6:23:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Italy reported 99 mortalities today - the lowest number since March 9, which was before the lockdown there. Very encouraging. I think Italy has eased a lot of countermeasures, but I don't know exactly which ones and when.




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(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 20
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 6:27:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
The UK number continues to decline and is also markedly lower than previous weeks (lowest total since March 24). I don't know what if any easing has been done there.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 21
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 6:34:05 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2804
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The UK number continues to decline and is also markedly lower than previous weeks (lowest total since March 24). I don't know what if any easing has been done there.


It's fairly messy. The UK as a whole announced a easing of restrictions a fortnight ago, along with a new public health message "Stay Alert".

Problem was that apparently the devolved administrations (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) weren't in the loop, leading to divergent messages between England and the rest of the UK.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 22
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 6:46:59 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The UK number continues to decline and is also markedly lower than previous weeks (lowest total since March 24). I don't know what if any easing has been done there.


It's fairly messy. The UK as a whole announced a easing of restrictions a fortnight ago, along with a new public health message "Stay Alert".

Problem was that apparently the devolved administrations (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) weren't in the loop, leading to divergent messages between England and the rest of the UK.


Failure to communicate is a common issue. One of my stepbrothers and his wife both spent the same money. That lead to problems, with the bank as well. But he just had to get a new CB radio . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 23
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/18/2020 8:58:14 PM   
Nomad

 

Posts: 4651
Joined: 9/5/2001
From: West Yellowstone, Montana
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A week or two back, Montana schools were given the option of re-opening (per a radio news item). I know that some did but the news blurb didn't make it clear if all did. How is that going?


Willow Creek school opened the 7th of May. 46 students and 18 staff and no known infections.
The state of Montana did a phase 1 opening starting the 26th of April and there have been no
flood of new cases, we are still showing mostly 0-2 new cases per day. There were 4 new
cases reported in Big Horn county last Friday. Big Horn county is where most of the Crow Reservation
is and I suspect that is a family cluster, there is no real information except that it was 2 teenage
girls, a teenage boy and a man in his 30's. There have been no deaths in the state of Montana
during the month of May.

< Message edited by Nomad -- 5/19/2020 12:05:21 AM >


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 24
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/19/2020 1:10:04 AM   
PaxMondo


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Guys, I just want to caution this group against reading too much into any published data on COVID-19. The issue centers around the testing. When some of the testing in use has 40% false positives and some approaching 20% false negatives, you just have to treat all of the data as suspect.

I can tell you that we don't use any of it. All of our outlooks are based upon inferential data that is far more solid. Example: # and % of ICU beds occupied by state and city.

Death Certificates (DC's) are a similar issue. Every state, and then county/city/hospital/doctor has their own form and guidelines for completing a DC. So, unless you understand the jurisdiction that the DC was issued in, you cannot judge how to use it. Example: some jurisdictions only allow for ultimate diagnosis, which for most COVID-19 patients will be pneumonia. There is no space for anything else. Others allow for additional complications. It depends. Now factor in the high rate of deaths, lack of storage AND poor testing quality ….

Just saying, don't put too much time and/or energy into any data yet. It will be August before we have reliable data and the Jan->Jun data will all get restated.

PS: I'm not suggesting that this is a hoax or anything like that. Quite the contrary, we've got 1800 Nurses/Medics on the front lines. I know what this beast is. I read charts half of my day. Trust me, HIPAA prohibits me from sharing any specifics, but this is a nasty bugger.

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(in reply to Nomad)
Post #: 25
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/19/2020 1:49:15 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2093
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
PaxMondo: Great information. Percent of ICU beds being used seems like the key metric to pay attention to in this whole thing. Apologies, but the other thread was so long that I don't recall what it is you do (or I missed it).

The numbers are still looking good here in Korea but I just got a call from the missus saying an OR nurse at a competing hospital [Samsung Medical Center in Gangnam] got the Vid. So, apparently they shut down the whole operating room facility on that basis (not sure if they shut the whole hospital). If an article gets written on it later today I'll post it. The upshot is the missus, who is a nurse practitioner at one of the three largest hospitals in Seoul, warned me not to go drinking with my mates this Friday lest I pass something on to her which will cause her hospital to get shutdown. We'll see if some kind of accord can be reached by then.

Here's today's story: S. Korea still vigilant over community spread; club cluster brought under control

EDIT: Here's a story on the hospital outbreak (it's four nurses now): 4 nurses at major Seoul hospital infected with COVID-19, facilities partially suspended

Cheers,
CB

< Message edited by CaptBeefheart -- 5/19/2020 5:26:12 AM >


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(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 26
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/19/2020 2:02:27 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6861
Joined: 11/16/2015
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I just saw that Ely, MN, has a case. It is an entry point for the Boundary Waters Wilderness Canoe Area which is a misnomer since it is not a wilderness. A lot of it got logged out a long time ago (100+ years) and it takes 400 years of growth for it to be back to a true wilderness. That is the area where a bear researcher named Rodgers set up a bear center and had a facebook page for Lily the Bear. There is also a Wolf Center in that area.

There is also a resort that caters to Disabled Veterans in that area but anybody can go there. It is called Veterans on the Lake.

That whole area is a tourist hot spot for fishing, boating and canoe trips. I would hate to be a week or so away from civilization and get seriously ill. No motor boats except for some lake area on the edges of the BWCA. To the west is the Voyageurs National Park (rent a houseboat!) and to the north is a Canadian park as well. Don't expect cell phone reception in the BWCA nor the Canadian side.


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 27
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/19/2020 4:31:42 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9164
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
CDC Confirms COVID Link to Inflammatory Syndrome in Kids; 145 Potential Cases in NYC

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cdc-confirms-link-of-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-to-covid-19-145-potential-cases-in-nyc/2421547/

The CDC calls it multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). The syndrome has now been reported in nearly half the nation's states, cases were confirmed in young people ages 3-18.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 28
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/19/2020 1:53:39 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19012
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
An article on testing methods, growth in testing, accuracy.

The Latest in Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing Methods and Availability

https://www.goodrx.com/blog/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-updates-methods-cost-availability/

(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 29
RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version - 5/19/2020 3:37:00 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15024
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Guys, I just want to caution this group against reading too much into any published data on COVID-19. The issue centers around the testing. When some of the testing in use has 40% false positives and some approaching 20% false negatives, you just have to treat all of the data as suspect.

I can tell you that we don't use any of it. All of our outlooks are based upon inferential data that is far more solid. Example: # and % of ICU beds occupied by state and city.

Death Certificates (DC's) are a similar issue. Every state, and then county/city/hospital/doctor has their own form and guidelines for completing a DC. So, unless you understand the jurisdiction that the DC was issued in, you cannot judge how to use it. Example: some jurisdictions only allow for ultimate diagnosis, which for most COVID-19 patients will be pneumonia. There is no space for anything else. Others allow for additional complications. It depends. Now factor in the high rate of deaths, lack of storage AND poor testing quality ….

Just saying, don't put too much time and/or energy into any data yet. It will be August before we have reliable data and the Jan->Jun data will all get restated.

PS: I'm not suggesting that this is a hoax or anything like that. Quite the contrary, we've got 1800 Nurses/Medics on the front lines. I know what this beast is. I read charts half of my day. Trust me, HIPAA prohibits me from sharing any specifics, but this is a nasty bugger.


This is why I have stopped trusting all the statistical analysis that is being posted on the net - the reliability of tests, the methodology of testing, the extent of testing and the reporting of results have been all over the map, sometimes with deliberate manipulation to make things look better or worse.

Same for death statistics - the latest news that many organizations are changing the guidelines on which deaths are considered part of COVID-19 stats appears to be politically motivated to make reopening look less risky.

With so much playing with the info (what is collected and how), the data itself is useless. That is why I have become partial to anecdotal stories whether they be good news or bad news, as long as the facts are accurate. It's closer to how we assess risk in normal day-to-day living.


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(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 30
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