So, the British CAN win, after all!! It really helps if you know roughly where the Russians are and what they're going to do and, even with these conditions, it's far from a sure thing. This is how I did it..
The first thing to realise is that your orders are suicidal and that you cannot possibly defeat the Kiev Task Force with the Invincible group. So, don't try - in fact, avoid them like Covid-19! All ships and subs were ordered to retire S of Iceland at Flank, keeping their radars off but using AEW aircraft.
Second thing, only use your choppers for local ASW patrol and don't use the Lynxes at all. The AI can't handle the Bingo Fuel calculation when you are steaming away from the patrol zone and I had to start again when this led to several choppers crashing. Lynxes have no sonar, anyway.
You need to concentrate on hitting the Soviets where they are vulnerable - their subs, aircraft and the supply ship Boris Chilikin, which trails the main task force outside the SAM umbrella. Doing this and avoiding losses, you can score enough points to win.
For some fine-tuning, use the Formation Editor to move HMS Cleopatra away from her exposed position and towards the centre or SW of your task force. She'll probably survive the Backfires that way, with the competent Edinburgh (my home town), Newcastle and Boxer to shield her.
Vitally, send three Nimrods to patrol the area E of Jan Mayen Island and search for the Oscar before it can attack you.
The Soviets sent-out their recon Badger, but it wasn't so lucky this time and died quickly. This didn't prevent the Backfire attack, but I had Harriers in position, timed it about right and shot down one of the bombers and a Bear D. This reduced the number of incoming Kitchens and, with Cleopatra out of harm's way, my destroyers were able to cope. Of course, this wasn't a given.
This time, I knew the Backfires weren't coming back and that there were no other bombers. One threat removed.
Crucially, the Oscar then rose to fire, but was promptly pounced upon by a Nimrod and sunk with two homing torpedoes. At this point, I began to believe. Maybe I was lucky and it could well be that this won't always work.
Note that any planes approaching from directions other than the North Cape are going to be neutrals, though one or two Bears worked their way round to the NW. The number of civilian/commercial air contacts causes a constant nuisance, along with the myriad neutral ships out there.
Rationing my Harrier sorties, I picked-off the Bears and recon Badgers one-by-one. Found that you really need all four Sidewinders to (almost) guarantee a kill, one Badger being missed twice on 81% and spoofing a third missile on 10%.
As there was little to lose, I mounted a Buccaneer strike on the Soviet fleet, being very careful in respect of the Slava Ustinov's out-of-range shooting last time. This didn't recur, but all 20 Sea Eagles aimed at the two Udaloys (which I considered realistic targets, being sinkable with 1-2 hits and at the edge of the enemy formation) were shot down by SAMs. However, I hedged my bets and sent two Buccaneers round to sink the Boris Chilikin, which they did easily enough. This got me into Minor Victory territory.
Having Harriers to spare, I sent some to harrass enemy choppers while disposing of the last few Bears (the Russians didn't use their Bear F ASW planes). It needed care near the edge of the SAM umbrella but, without Eboreg's ammo problems, I took a steady toll with Sidewinders. Nimrods with Sidewinders were useful in this role, as they have greater endurance. This process got me to the 5,000-point Major Victory threshold.
Eventually launched the second Buccaneer strike (you only get two). Having read Eboreg's post, I surmised that turning my radars off might give me an element of surprise. Doubt if it did, really. Tried to fire all missiles at the Slava, but issues with game mechanics delayed six missile launches and I re-directed these at the Udaloy Admiral Spiridinov, on the basis that the Slava would be distracted. While this was going on, a neutral blundered through the Russian fleet, delaying the attack. While I was distracted by this, one of my ASW Nimrods mindlessly flew into the SAM umbrella under AI direction and was downed - my only loss of the playthrough.
I watched the Soviet emissions closely and found that, while their radars were, indeed, off to begin-with, they came on as soon as missiles were spotted. Of the 16 missiles aimed at the Slava (Ustinov), one managed to hit and this was ultimately fatal to the cruiser. Disappointingly, though, it was only worth 1,000 points (the same as the Cleopatra). All 6 shots at the Spiridinov failed. That SAM cover is really quite something...in my reality, anyway.
The rest of the game dragged a bit. I shot down some more choppers (15 in all) and a Nimrod put a Harpoon into the Spiridinov, leaving her dead in the water. Disappointingly, a second Nimrod Harpoon attack failed to finish her off despite being planned to avoid SAM cover - the Udaloy still had some SAMs left and they saved her.
So it ended as a Triumph, with a score of 6,500 and just one plane lost. Satisfying, but I maintain what I said about play balance. If I hadn't sunk the Oscar or if I'd been unlucky with the Backfires, it might have been a different outcome.