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US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 1:39:18 PM   
DWReese

 

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Here's a REAL potential conflict that could actually happen.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-instructs-us-navy-destroy-130031321.html
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RE: US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 2:14:38 PM   
BeirutDude


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A swarm of Boghammers, Tir II or Thondar-class missile boats could cause some damage to a USN (minesweeper especially), or more likely, USNS vessel. It would be Pyrrhic at best. Over and above the 50 cals the CIWS can be depressed enough to disrupt any attack not to mention ships helios firing Hellfires. The small Gir class submarines are too slow to do much damage to anything but a merchant/tanker, but their three Kilos are a threat. I would assume one one is operational at any given time.

The real threat is the mines and coastal ASMs.

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 4/22/2020 2:16:23 PM >


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RE: US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 2:32:26 PM   
kevinkins


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Well that clarifies the ROE I suppose. I played around with gunboat swarms in large numbers (probably not realistic numbers, but fun). They can be a challenge to defend against - but mostly suicidal against the USN.

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 2:50:42 PM   
BeirutDude


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The Hormuz scenario I did covers the IRGC coming out to disrupt shipping. To give the IRGC a chance I have cut the GCC and Western military assets in the area in half. Don't get me wrong they can do some damage, especially with the coastal ASMs, but they will take a lot more then they give.

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 4/22/2020 2:54:50 PM >


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RE: US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 4:33:53 PM   
Gunner98

 

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Did the same in IO Fury #1 Persian Pounce. The little buggers die like flies but some will likely get through.

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 7:12:08 PM   
BeirutDude


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Agreed and bringing a high value asset like a carrier through the Straits is the height of insanity and unnecessary with air bases in the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar. A swarm attack in the straits with restricted maneuverability could do some real damage. Not saying they could sink one, I doubt that, but could be damaging.

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 11:32:55 PM   
1nutworld


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

Agreed and bringing a high value asset like a carrier through the Straits is the height of insanity and unnecessary with air bases in the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar. A swarm attack in the straits with restricted maneuverability could do some real damage. Not saying they could sink one, I doubt that, but could be damaging.



None of those could sink a CVN target, but certainly there could be enough damage caused for risk of flooding would make it so that the CVN would need to return to base or port for "x" length of time, for even superficial repairs to the hull to eliminate it from being mission capable. OPFOR mission denied? mission accomplished.

< Message edited by 1nutworld -- 4/22/2020 11:34:22 PM >


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RE: US versus Iran - 4/22/2020 11:57:20 PM   
Gunner98

 

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quote:

mission accomplished.


All it takes these days is a few seconds of good video, some grainy stills and an quick and imaginative story teller - you have mission accomplished.



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RE: US versus Iran - 4/23/2020 2:52:11 PM   
ParachuteProne

 

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The issue is when your enemy becomes hostile. If they are simply unfriendly and are able to come within 100 yards or less before turning hostile and you can engage anything could happen.

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/24/2020 11:48:03 PM   
guanotwozero

 

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There seem to be elements within the Guards that have the same mentality as during the Iran-Iraq war, who would happily lose significant lives & materiel just to achieve some visible short-term success. As The Iranian people slowly drift away from supporting the Islamic regime, it seems possible that the Guards (& Supreme Leadership) might well try such an attack to try to gain local support, much as the Galtieri leadership did in Argentina during the Dirty War.

Combined with orders like in the article like linked above, that might make for an interesting scenario e.g. pinpricks from swarming Boghammars provoke a response and escalate to a missile/sub war. Iran expects to lose a fair amount of equipment & lives before a cease-fire, but remains uninvaded and hopes to bolster support from the people. The growing critics of the regime are labelled unpatriotic, repressed and silenced for quite some time. However that plan could backfire badly on them too, e.g if Hormuz or Kish Island is occupied and the regime is seen to be humiliated.

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/25/2020 1:22:11 AM   
kevinkins


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For some reason, Iranian gunboats bring out the "boy" in so many who sandbox this game. Not sure why. Is it the David vs Goliath thing? Or maybe they are just a reason to escalate into more wide spread combat?

Kevin

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/25/2020 10:48:15 AM   
Gunner98

 

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quote:

Is it the David vs Goliath thing?


Probably - the asymmetric situation. It's difficult to see a similar scenario developing anywhere - there is no way you would put big, valuable ships in such a situation if you could avoid it. But you can't - you must go through.

Bab al Mandab is another but the threat hasn't evolved the same way. Straights of Malacca perhaps but there are ways around.

So I think the boat swarms represent an easy win - with a palpable chance of catastrophic loss that you cannot always replicate in the open ocean where you can hide.

Zombie movies come to mind...

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/25/2020 11:05:03 AM   
BeirutDude


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I always think of it as Fire Ants/Army Ants, one can sting, but 20 and you have a real problem! Iran, and especially the IRGC/IRGC(N), have banked soooooo much on asymmetrical warfare that they think they can do anything with it. Historically, I think they're like the Japanese on Dec 7th, they can actually run wild and cause great damage for a week, maybe two, but after that the effort will be largely Pyrrhic. Problem is, I don't think the fanatics see it that way, judging from many of their Twitter posts...

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

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RE: US versus Iran - 4/25/2020 11:39:49 AM   
c3k

 

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The key to an interesting scenario (to me) would be to simulate some initially restrictive US ROE...as it is IRL.

I'd start with several swarms, each harassing some different ships. Some USN, some USNS, some just tankers/cargo being protected by USN. Then, the swarms coordinate their timing and begin the attacks, already very close. Since, today, these boats already are allowed to close within 100 yards or closer, it would make sense to allow that type of closure in any CMO scenario.

Perhaps then send in some more swarms and use the various other tools available to Iran. (Coordinated suicide drones; false-flag ships; shore-based missiles, including ballistic launches (targeting would be an issue); mines?; etc.)

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Post #: 14
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