Yeah, totally can't believe how close this one has been. I really thought the fight was over when the Russians gave in and French morale dipped so low - but had the Russians lasted a few more turns then British/Greek reinforcements after the victory over the Ottomans might have pushed back the CP? And had the fall of Constantinople been delayed a few more turns then the CP might have broken the Serbian front beyond all repair? And had US entry into the war been delayed just a turn or two the French would have surrendered?
Just so many point where it might have turned out differently. And its easy to see how each could have happened. Had I simply moved one of the units investing Adrianople in September 1916 toward Constantinople I could have blocked the two infantry corps that crossed the straits from building the line that ended up slowing me down for 2-3 turns. Constantinople would have fallen earlier and the defeat of the Ottomans would have boosted Russian morale, delaying their surrender, allowing British/Greek units to join an offensive in Serbia etc. etc..
Even with the Teutonic Powers on the back foot, though, France might still surrender in ~5-6 turns (i.e., mid-summer) if more German cities don't fall. Strasbourg and Mulhouse are in reach during that time, though, and each should raise French morale by ~2% or so. Hopefully a few German ships can get sunk with the French putting in the last blow as well.
(Full disclosure: I've been intervening in the AI's running of the naval war and Western Front since late 1916, though AI control is still switched on so suicide attacks/unit shuffling etc. still happen. Had I not done so, this war would have been over long ago)
< Message edited by FOARP -- 9/7/2020 7:49:12 AM >
American Front: a Work-in-progress CSA v USA Turtledove mod for SC:WW1 can be seen here.