Right here goes.
Before piling into the North Sea, there are a couple of vulnerabilities to address in the event of an Italian DoW on impulse 3. The ports on the East Med are exposed to surprise invasion, particularly Port Said where you have the British fleet. To get them covered while still taking a naval move means either leaving the Queens exposed in the East Med 1-box or leaving Damietta open.
Damietta open has a 6 speed CA bringing the INF Div from Plymouth to Port Said. If the landing succeeds and assuming there will be other ships to provide defensive shore bombardment, you have the option of a 3:1 counter-attack using the INF Div, TERR and ART but this has a 30% chance of failure and almost certain disorganisation. You can get 4.5:1 by leaving the ART at Alex and using Wavell. If the fractional fails, it's 10% failure but 70% likely disorganised. At 5:1 the Italian Div will be destroyed but there's still a 50% chance of disorganisation. If that happens, Alex will fall to the Italians advancing from Libya and reinforcements can be brought in.
I think a combined move is necessary for CW. Use the Queens to bring the TERR up to Suez (keeps them as safe as we can). In your land moves, bring Wavell back to Damietta, move the Egyptian TERR to Port Said and the SA TERR to Alex'.
That leaves one naval move. You could use it to put the RN in the North Sea or send the Polish DD's raiding in the Baltic. However, another idea would be to use one of the 4 range CA's at Plymouth to bring the INF Div to Oran. If the Italians want a port in Algiers on the surprise move, it would have to be Bone, which is the right side of Algiers for us. They could still try a landing on the west side, hoping to be able to debark an HQ later but it could be counter-attacked first and the HQ and TRANS run the gauntlet in West Med without the advantage of surprise.
France will take a naval and put Bearn and CA in the North Sea 3-box and send everything to West and East Med as high a sea box as possible. I'll send out the 2 CP's at Casablanca as they can help you with the chain from Dutch Guyana or Belgium Congo when they become available. It's also then a port to bring the Nigerian TERR's into if it looks like they are doing a 'close the Med'.
Suggest Gort to Bordeaux in preparation of going to Bayonne once I have shifted the oil. If you can take a naval on our second impulse then great but that leaves Calais open until our third impulse. Need to look at the situation. Combined on our second impulse would be okay and use other naval move depending on whether Italians have gone to war.
Opening air stikes I suggest the French will try Saarbrucken. RAF try the DB-7 on the 8-6 ARM and the Harrows on the 5-5 MOT and FTR if it hasn't gone to North Sea and 6-5 MOT if it has.
What do you think?
< Message edited by AllenK -- 4/12/2020 12:40:39 PM >