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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II

 
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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 1:07:17 AM   
jaimewolf2980

 

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That isn't the death rate anyway, to calculate the death rate you need to know the denominator (total number of cases). Iceland data suggests as much as 50% of cases are asymptomatic or unreported, new study from Germany suggests only 6% of worldwide cases are being reported. While the true scale of undetected cases is currently unknown, what IS known is that severity is inversely proportional to age - this tends to indicate a large number of younger asymptomatic carriers - meaning any approximation of death rate from cases (or recovered) is meaningless atm. Idiots dividing column X by column Y on a spreadsheet to come up with death rates are scaremongering - no offense intended.

LOL - a death rate of 20%, I have no problem with someone having a column with 20% in it, but THAT is NOT the death rate (CFR), call it something more appropriate. Ebola's CFR can be as high as ~60%... FFS, this thing is therefore 33% as bad as EBOLA... /s.. LOL I think not.


The deathrate for this virion is much lower than 20%, but the rate of transmission is ridiculously high and all the scientists are desperate to know the asymptomatic numbers but for that we need ELISA/antibody tests. rtPCRs are reasonably reliable, quick but detect the viral RNA, which can still be present some time after they have recovered (eg virus coated in neutralizing IgG, IgM will still give a positive result in a rtPCR), conversely someone who had the virus and mild or no symptoms a month ago may not test positive in the PCR. These kinds of test results were responsible for all the "reinfection stories" in the media a few weeks ago (and probably that dog in Hong Kong - though animal infection remains a real concern - this is zoonotic after all, and there are alot of mammals on the phylogentic tree between bats / pangolins??/ humans). People can test positive way after. Better to look at their symptoms if you are concerned about reinfection. Only immunocompromised individuals would be at risk of real reinfection.

< Message edited by jaimewolf2980 -- 4/10/2020 1:57:17 AM >

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Post #: 31
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 2:37:54 AM   
RangerJoe


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He has been informed of this many times.

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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 12:37:54 PM   
rico21


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Post #: 33
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 1:47:16 PM   
MrRoadrunner


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"Idiots dividing column X by column Y on a spreadsheet to come up with death rates are scaremongering - no offense intended."
jaimewolf2980

Thanks for your contribution. Two posts and you resort to name calling?
Step up your game, please.

RR

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Post #: 34
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 2:26:49 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Today's worldwide figures:




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Post #: 35
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 2:31:13 PM   
RangerJoe


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Minnesota doctor blasts 'ridiculous' CDC coronavirus death count guidelines

quote:

Jensen then told Ingraham that under the CDC guidelines, a patient who died after being hit by a bus and tested positive for coronavirus would be listed as having presumed to have died from the virus regardless of whatever damage was caused by the bus.

"That doesn't make any sense," he said.

Jensen also reacted to Dr. Anthony Fauci's response to a question about the potential for the number of coronavirus deaths being "padded," in which the NIAID director described the prevalance of "conspiracy theories" during "challenging" times in public health.

"I would remind him that anytime health care intersects with dollars it gets awkward," Jensen said.

"Right now Medicare has determined that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you’ll get paid $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator, you get $39,000; three times as much. Nobody can tell me, after 35 years in the world of medicine, that sometimes those kinds of things [have] impact on what we do.


https://www.foxnews.com/media/physician-blasts-cdc-coronavirus-death-count-guidelines

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Post #: 36
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 3:25:38 PM   
rico21


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To avoid contagion, it is better to run side by side than one behind the other

Science & Techno
Belgium
Netherlands
Het Laatste Nieuws - Brussels

Posted on 10/04/2020 - 12:34

If physical activity is a great help in supporting containment, Belgian and Dutch researchers warn: greater safety distances must be observed and care must be taken not to run behind one another.
Our services

The safety distance of 1.5 meters, recommended by the authorities, is entirely valid "for people who are inside or outside in calm weather", confirms Het Laatste Nieuws. "But when you walk, run or cycle, you have to be a little more careful." The Belgian newspaper spoke with Professor Bert Blocken, aerodynamics researcher at the University of Louvain (Belgium) and the University of Eindhoven (Netherlands), both of whom are behind a new study joint.

As the researcher explains:

When a jogger expires or coughs, droplets remain suspended behind it. The person running behind - in what is called the slipstream - therefore passes through this cloud of droplets. ”

"The slipstream," he says, "is the area just behind a person who runs or rides a bike," his wake, where you can feel a suction effect, useful in other circumstances. , to cyclists.
Three scenarios

As the Flemish daily details, the Belgian and Dutch researchers studied the dispersion of the droplets using simulations that clearly show the movement of the cloud left by a moving person. They studied different layouts (one person next to the other, one right behind the other, one far behind the other). Their conclusions are clear:

These simulations indicate that the situation of two people playing sports next to each other in calm weather is one where social distancing matters the least. In this configuration, the droplets fly behind the two people. The risk of being hit by another sportsperson's droplets is also fairly low when standing behind him or her at a distance. It’s when you’re right behind a person, in their slipstream, that the risk of contamination is greatest. ”

In light of these results, concludes Het Laatste Nieuws, Professor Blocken recommends observing a distance of “at least four to five meters” from the person in front when walking, ten when running or cycling, and “at least 20 meters” when riding a bicycle at high speed.
Source

Het Laatste NieuwsBrussels
www.hln.be

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Post #: 37
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 4:13:50 PM   
RangerJoe


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Yes, if you can smell their pharts, then you are in the danger zone . . .

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Post #: 38
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/10/2020 5:20:38 PM   
MrRoadrunner


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97,039/1,617,204 = 6%

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Post #: 39
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/11/2020 2:54:49 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Today's worldwide figures:




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Post #: 40
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/11/2020 3:01:41 PM   
MrRoadrunner


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102,136/1,684,833 = 6%

RR

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Post #: 41
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/11/2020 3:21:06 PM   
rico21


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Deon Meyer: "Many scientists have warned that a pandemic is brewing, and no one has seemed to listen to them"

In his novel "The Year of the Lion", published in France in 2017, the South African writer Deon Meyer had anticipated the current epidemic due to the coronavirus
An abandoned car on a deserted road, some expired food. It is in this environment that a father and his son, both survivors of the "viruscorona" which has just decimated 95% of the world population, are attacked by wild dogs. Thus begins The Year of the Lion, a novel by Deon Meyer that France took in 2017 for a postapocalyptic account. No one imagined at the time that this fiction was already telling the story of the current coronavirus pandemic. Not even its author.

The South African writer had yet scientifically validated that the coronavirus was indeed the most dangerous pathogen for the human race and the planet. He had worked on its transmission and its consequences on our globalized societies, from the passage from animals to humans to intercontinental contamination, through the closing of borders or the diversion of protective masks, which have become weapons of this funny war…
Three years after the translation of the novel into French, the framework that underlies it, improbable yesterday for an average imagination, has become reality. Funny foreshadowing! Including Deon Meyer, who plunged back into his notes, himself a little afraid to discover that his novel had anticipated a planetary catastrophe.
Humanity decimated by a coronavirus is the starting point for The Year of the Lion. How did you get that idea ?

To be honest, with The Year of the Lion, I wanted to explore our world first after a virus wiped out the world's population, not so much the pandemic itself. It turns out that the stories of the chaotic experience of the characters during the pandemic did not stop inviting themselves into the book, which forced me to do research on the nature of pandemics and try to imagine what that it would be to experience such a situation.
Newspaper "Le Monde".

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Post #: 42
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/12/2020 5:35:47 AM   
rico21


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Coronavirus could travel up to 4 meters from patient, says Chinese study

The main mode of spread of the new coronavirus is the relatively large droplets produced when coughing or sneezing.
The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus contaminates both surfaces and air near patients, and up to four meters from them, according to a study carried out in a Wuhan field hospital and published by the Centers on Friday American Disease Prevention and Control (CDC).
An important limitation of the study, published by the CDC journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, is that the test used detects the presence of the virus, but not the quantity of viable virus. In other words, just because the virus ejected into the air by sneezing or breathing patients can fly up to four meters does not mean that there will be enough of these particles to infect someone.
Samples from the prefabricated hospital.
Chinese researchers took samples from an intensive care unit (15 patients) at the Huoshenshan field hospital in Wuhan between February 19 and March 2, as well as from a general care unit with less serious patients (24 patients). ).
This is the prefabricated hospital which had been built in 10 days by an army of workers at the start of the epidemic in the city. Samples were taken from the floors, computer mice, trash cans, bed rails, patient masks, caregiver protective equipment, air vents, as well as from the air in the rooms. several places.
"SARS-CoV-2 was widely distributed in the air and on the surface of objects in the intensive care and general care departments, which implies a potentially high risk of contamination for healthcare workers and other close contacts"
, write the researchers.
The most contaminated areas were near intensive care patients. The most contaminated objects were mice, followed by garbage cans and beds and door handles.
But half of the soles of the nursing staff's shoes also had traces of the virus. "We strongly recommend that people disinfect the soles of their shoes before leaving services where Covid-19 patients are found," the researchers conclude. They also recommend disinfecting the masks after use, before throwing them away.
Microscopic droplets
The virus has also been detected in the air: more often near the patient's bed than near doctors' workstations. But they found it once four meters from the patient, which makes them write that "the maximum transmission distance of an aerosol of SARS-CoV-2 could be four meters".
The virus was also found on the air vent through which room air is exhausted. Given the significant contamination of the patient environment, the researchers believe that "isolating people with a suspected Covid-19 at home may not be an effective control strategy."
The main mode of spread of the new coronavirus is the relatively large droplets produced when coughing or sneezing.
But we also emit microscopic droplets by speaking and breathing, and the presence of sufficient coronavirus inside these droplets (aerosols) is the subject of intense scientific debate.
As a precaution, the United States has recommended covering their faces to prevent people with the virus but without symptoms from infecting others by talking or breathing.

www.nouvelobs.com.

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Post #: 43
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/12/2020 9:57:49 AM   
ncc1701e


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Few articles I am reading about aggravating factors of COVID-19:

quote:

Obesity adds to health risks in general, with an increase in the incidence of diabetes and hypertension -- both identified as aggravating factors of COVID-19 in Italian and Chinese studies, along with age and to a lesser extent heart cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease.

This raises a particular concern for the United States, where some 42 percent of adults are obese, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has warned people with a BMI over 40 could be at higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19.


And also here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/u-k-may-warn-the-obese-they-re-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus

Stay safe

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Post #: 44
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/12/2020 4:47:05 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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Today's worldwide figures:




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Post #: 45
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/12/2020 10:27:28 PM   
Lobster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

Benefit of being a woman, is I don't need to argue.

I'm always right. Trust me, always right. If you are smart, you'll agree, I'm always right.


As a married man I can say you are, as you say, correct.

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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/12/2020 10:29:19 PM   
Lobster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Yes, if you can smell their pharts, then you are in the danger zone . . .





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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/12/2020 10:36:39 PM   
Lobster


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Coronavirus: US death toll overtakes Italy as world's highest
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52258284

So the U.S. has the highest number of immune in the world I guess.


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Post #: 48
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/12/2020 11:05:03 PM   
Toby42


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To do a comparison, do it right!




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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 12:44:47 AM   
ernieschwitz

 

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You're wrong and right Toby42. Italy shouldn't just be compared to USA when it comes to total deaths. BUT it shouldn't be compared by area either. It should be compared by looking at population size instead.

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Post #: 50
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 3:40:59 AM   
Lobster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ernieschwitz

You're wrong and right Toby42. Italy shouldn't just be compared to USA when it comes to total deaths. BUT it shouldn't be compared by area either. It should be compared by looking at population size instead.


U.S. ~328.2 million
Italy ~60.36 million

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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 11:15:30 AM   
Toby42


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Probably should look at deaths as a percentage of population? But this whole pandemic is more than just a bunch of numbers! It's real people suffering....

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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 2:00:04 PM   
MrRoadrunner


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110,892/1,800,791 = 6%

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Post #: 53
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 2:37:48 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 13060
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From: Houston, TX
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Today's worldwide figures:




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Post #: 54
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 3:01:24 PM   
MrRoadrunner


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115,286/1,864,629 = 6%

RR

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Post #: 55
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 3:18:50 PM   
RangerJoe


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5,833/1,864,629 = 0.313%

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Post #: 56
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/13/2020 5:57:16 PM   
RangerJoe


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A long but very good article:

Facts about Covid-19
Published: March 14, 2020; Updated: April 12, 2020
Fully referenced facts about Covid-19, provided by experts in the field, to help our readers make a realistic risk assessment. (Regular updates below)

“The only means to fight the plague is honesty.” Albert Camus, The Plague (1947)

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

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Post #: 57
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/14/2020 2:42:00 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 13060
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
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Today's worldwide figures:




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Post #: 58
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/14/2020 4:48:35 PM   
MrRoadrunner


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120,914/1,935,646 = 6%

RR

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Post #: 59
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus Part II - 4/14/2020 10:48:05 PM   
Zovs


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So it seems that the WHO is to blame for most of this pandemic along with China.




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