I wanted to test whether German recon over-usage (now limited to two sorties per hex) would contribute significantly to VVS readyiness, morale, experience, or fatigue.
Setup: Smolensk 1941 scenario to avoid turn one effects. Ran 214-242 manual recon flights without selecting units with and without fighter escort. Soviets have 2 MiG groups and 8 other fighter-specified FB groups active. Ran three times and exported commander reports from Soviet turn 1 and German turn 2. Soviets have about 170 planes ready to fly after logistics phase. Not sure how these numbers match up to a real game, but I imagine this is an extreme case of recon use.
Conclusions: Plane losses are negligible for SU but not Germans. SU will have ~1 operational loss per 30 German recon flights. Germans will have ~1 operational fighter/FB loss per 35 recon flights (so definitely not worth it). Only one recon plane in 1200 flights was actually shot down rather than lost operationally.
No effects on Soviet fighters unless an isolated F-B group (say guarding a distant strategic target)
Soviet fighters will rack up 1-2 fatigue, while fighter bombers in intercept mode will get upwards of 5 fatigue. Readiness, morale, and experience were hardly affected. The larger MiG regiment of 19 planes gained 3 morale, the other regiments not significantly changed. However, this is at a huge saturation of approximately 1 recon flight per ready plane. Therefore, the German player will likely not have any detriment to over-reconning, and it IS technically still viable to minorly fatigue out local groups if the Soviet side somehow has only 1-2 regiments defending a large space, moreso if this regiment is a fighter-bomber.
Data is here for anyone interested in parsing further stuff (like German fighter gains). Bolded groups are either in Natl' reserve or in bomber mode.