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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:50:41 PM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5372
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From: The Zone™
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
When this is over we need to confiscate every dollar in the Chicom national wealth fund. [blah blah more lunacies]


India is gunna confiscate too the Americapital[ist] national wealth fund, eh little ignorant troll? After all the Spanish Flu orignated in Kansas and claimed most of its victims in India.

See the pic below, ignorant. Put that in your pipe and smoke it




Attachment (1)

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a nu cheeki breeki iv damke

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Post #: 2551
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:53:46 PM   
MakeeLearn


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6 feet enough for social distancing? MIT researcher says droplets carrying Coronavirus can travel up to 27 feet

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/30/coronavirus-social-distancing-mit-researcher-lydia-bourouiba-27-feet/5091526002/


"Lydia Bourouiba, an associate professor at MIT, has researched the dynamics of exhalations (coughs and sneezes, for instance) for years at The Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory and found exhalations cause gaseous clouds that can travel up to 27 feet."

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Post #: 2552
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:56:12 PM   
MakeeLearn


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My county just got it's first case.
I live in a very rural county. We only have 2 red lights.

Went to town, stopped at 3 stores. The people with the most overloaded carts, were the most unhealthy looking people. Some so over weight they were on scooters.


Disgusting behavior from some people. Others were very friendly.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/31/2020 3:58:25 PM >


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Post #: 2553
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:08:32 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Six months in jail, $11,000 fine for leaving home without a 'reasonable excuse’
March 31, 2020

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/six-months-in-jail-11-000-fine-for-leaving-home-without-a-reasonable-excuse-20200330-p54fg8.html

"Anyone in NSW who leaves their house without a "reasonable excuse" could spend up to six months in prison and face an $11,000 fine under an emergency ministerial directive gazetted overnight.

The public health order, which enacts Sunday's recommendations of the national cabinet, gives police sweeping power to enforce the latest round of restrictions designed to limit the spread of Coronavirus in Australia."

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Post #: 2554
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:13:52 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MindMessing, I explained myself clearly and accurately above. I'm not going to sidetrack this thread further to deal with your malcontent, misreporting, and bad faith.


Malcontent? au contraire, mon ami. I am quite sanguine.

Misreporting? I shall dispute that - my comments are referenced, and I challenge you to argue against a vein of American exceptionalism that is present in this thread.

Bad faith? Come now, you can do better than that. Try, perhaps, some evidence?

I am genuinely disappoint that you'll stoop to "Oh but you're acting in bad faith mind_messing" to avoid actually engaging with any hard facts.

< Message edited by mind_messing -- 3/31/2020 4:15:36 PM >

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Post #: 2555
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:16:01 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
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From: Southern California
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One can't glibly make claims about health system superiority based on mortality figures or numbers of cases. It has a lot more to do with geography and international connectedness (especially to ground zero in China). How many South Korean firms operate in China? Then you have geography. One border has about 200,000 land mines and the rest is surrounded by 45 degree F sea water. Then you add "cultural differences". Take Wuhan, when the police van drives by and blasts "everyone stay in home!"...everyone gets the message..because they bloody well know from experience what happens if you don't follow the "advice"

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Post #: 2556
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:23:45 PM   
HansBolter


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What EXACTLY the "f" is the issue with the belief on the part of Americans in American exceptionalism?

Why should evidence of it in a thread Americans are participating in be any kind of a surprise or any kind of an issue to anyone?

Our generation grew up being indoctrinated in the belief in American exceptionalism. It's perfectly NATURAL for it to be in evidence here.

Work on getting that chip off your shoulder.

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Hans


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Post #: 2557
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:24:21 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
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The CCP did a great job "restoring order" at Tienanmen too. The have about 150,000 full time troops with heavy weapons who answer only to the Central Committee and whose job it is to maintain "order".

North Korea has ZERO cases. Anyone planning on a trip to Pyongyang for your colonoscopy?

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 3/31/2020 4:27:51 PM >

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Post #: 2558
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:27:24 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 706
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Please, people: if you want to be involved in the "Great Math War of 2020" you can enlist in the derailed thread on the GD Forum. Let's keep the pissing contests out of here.






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< Message edited by RFalvo69 -- 3/31/2020 4:28:19 PM >


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Post #: 2559
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:29:13 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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Good point. Solve the problem and THEN exact revenge. Of course, planning ahead is a good thing too.

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Post #: 2560
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:29:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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Hans, don't take the bait. The premise was false in the first place and going down this road will derail an excellent thread. There hasn't been any suggestion of "American exceptionalism" in here. There have been clearly qualified statements that we have excellent healthcare (and we do) and that we have the benefit of going later in this than so many other countries, so that we have more information to work with and more time to work with it. There hasn't been any spirit of "we are better than you." That doesn't stop folks from misperceiving but there you have it.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/31/2020 4:31:12 PM >

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Post #: 2561
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:34:51 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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My wife, an RN, has a man-hating nursing director pushing 350 (estimated) who has the personal skills of Nazi camp guard.

She blasts out a group email. "All vacations in April are cancelled. You need to sign up for shifts for those vacation days by Thursday"

Of course, it is a necessary step but she left out the Churchillian component and even a hint of thanks or appreciation. Idiot.


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Post #: 2562
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:37:22 PM   
obvert


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This is a really extensively researched map from the NY Times which goes by county records. It's pretty granular for a large visual.

What is interesting to me is that this is getting everywhere now. Even small, isolated rural areas. I would like to see a similar one for where the testing is happening. If anyone sees that let me know.






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Post #: 2563
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:38:56 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

What EXACTLY the "f" is the issue with the belief on the part of Americans in American exceptionalism?

Why should evidence of it in a thread Americans are participating in be any kind of a surprise or any kind of an issue to anyone?

Our generation grew up being indoctrinated in the belief in American exceptionalism. It's perfectly NATURAL for it to be in evidence here.

Work on getting that chip off your shoulder.


It seems a reasonable expectation that anything coming close to a realistic assessment of the current situation would involve some degree of self-awareness of both conscious and unconscious bias.

Instead we get claims touted that the US is going to be the exception to the international norm for COVID. Explanations offered (superior US healthcare) have been challenged with evidence (WHO report into healthcare performance). Waiting for the debate to actually get to the evidence instead of just focusing on my personal failings as an individual.

Happy to wait...

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 2564
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:43:03 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Governor Hogan issues Stay at Home directive for Maryland

But there are enough loopholes that it has no effect, other than all the maggots re-storming the stores and grabbing all the Toilet Paper, again. Way to go Hogan, you slob.

Meanwhile, local home improvement company Window Nation is offering special COVID-19 deals to help out the citizens of Md. in these trying times. Similarly, a local carpet cleaning company is offering a 'two rooms for one deal' in order to do their part in keeping homes clean, a requisite in fighting off the virus.

Go Maryland !!


Window Nation always has "deals". Neat about the carpet cleaning, but AFAIK it's hard surfaces and not carpets that you have to worry about for infection... and anybody in a house who is infected should be sequestered. So I'm not sure what difference it makes.

I don't like Hogan either, but he's done a fine job of handling this. The "loopholes" are the same as the guidance before, except that now if you don't follow them you are subject to receiving a citation with a fine (up to $5,000) and potential jail time (presumably they'd only do this if you were doing like that guy who got arrested in Howard County for throwing a bonfire party last week). I think people should probably care less what the "maggots" are doing.


quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

quote:

I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible?


For me it's just about looking at the current rates and making estimates based on expectations from China and Italy's reported progress (Increasingly have less confidence in China's accuracy, but Italy seems to possibly be following it).

US *has* slid from deaths doubling every 3 days to every 4 days according to our world in data (which is good!), so I shifted my numbers from 1.26 per day to 1.19 (this does make a pretty big difference) and updated the initial number to 3156. Assuming a plateau of about 10 days:

If we plateau in 7 days, 27k deaths when the US starts its decline.
If we plateau in 14 days, it's 93k deaths


To see how big of a difference a change in the rate makes, at doubling every 3 days it'd be:

7 days: 49k deaths
14 days: 245k deaths


The biggest x-factor for US I think is it's geography and how far had the virus spread to places that we are less aware of. The geographical distance is good to mitigate infection, but there may have been travel that delayed some of the outbreaks. It also will do weird things to the aggregate US numbers as a place like NY state may decline while for example Michigan's numbers get worse. I could see this meaning a peak that doesn't get as high but a plateau that lasts longer.


Thanks for your back-of-the-envelope estimates/maths. Your reasoning is on the same track as mine. I think part of the reason, perhaps the biggest reason, we are below the "Italian curve" (while other countries are almost exactly on it) as a whole country is because we are so geographically large and the spread of the virus is going to take some time. That's a good thing for the overall impact on us, in terms of number of deaths. Obviously, isolation and stay-at-home orders help, too.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MindMessing has misrepresented the truth of what has been said by his fellow Forumites and the spirit in which things have been said.


You should probably delete this and the subsequent posts. I think maybe you didn't have your morning caffeine yet?

As an American, there has been an undercurrent of "American exceptionalism" to some posts - perhaps unintentionally, but it's been there.


Back on topic - really concerning news out of Wuhan today that dashes at least some of the "this might not be as bad as estimates have been making it out to be" optimism, via WaPo (emphasis mine in an attempt to preempt any "reopening is happening in Wuhan" headlines):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-revs-its-engine-to-move-past-coronavirus-but-its-stuck-in-second-gear/2020/03/31/13c81b20-7230-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html

quote:


People are allowed out of their residential complexes only if they have a return-to-work pass issued by their employer, and only if the government-issued health code on their cellphone glows green — not orange or red — to show that they are healthy and cleared for travel. Residents report that some complexes deemed infection-free have quietly lost that status, without explanation.

In the malls that opened this week, people must stand five feet apart on escalators, and clothes that customers have tried on must be sprayed with disinfectant. Subway passengers must wear masks and sit two seats apart; footage on state media showed near-deserted cars and stations.

...

Chinese authorities are discovering that allowing people — even those without fevers who are wearing surgical masks and are doused in hand sanitizer — to get too close to each other risks a new rise in infections. Recent media reports have focused on “silent carriers,” and studies have found that as many as one-third of people infected with the coronavirus show delayed or no symptoms. “The possibility of a new round of infections remains relatively high,” National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said Sunday.


< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 3/31/2020 4:44:03 PM >

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Post #: 2565
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:44:04 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Yesterday's numbers sorted by deaths per MM. The Netherlands' climb up this chart bothers me. The United States and Germany still looking pretty good by comparison. Again, my US-centric 'landmark' for a really bad flu season's mortality would be 147/MM population.





I'm still not sure that you can equate that flu statistic to the 'deaths per million' numbers in the chart.

Using a rough estimate of the flu season as lasting 120 days the 147/million figure equates to 1.2 deaths per day per million pop.

Say if we use the UK as an example. We had our 10th death on 13th March. As of yesterday we had reported 1408 deaths - or 21 per million population. That is in a 17 day period so 1.3 deaths per million per day. So by that measure mortality is already as bad as the flu, which is not what you would take from the chart.

We (and the US) are early in our 'curve' and hoping we don't suffer as bad as Italy. But if you run a similar calculation for their numbers - 10th death reached on Feb 25th and by the 30/03 they had reported 11500 deaths or 188/mill. Over 34 days that works out as 5.5 deaths/day/million population - 5 times worse than the flu. On their worst day so far they had 919 deaths, or 15 per million population.

[edit - I'd used the wrong number for the UK - today's new cases and not total deaths. Now corrected]


< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 3/31/2020 5:04:11 PM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2566
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:44:10 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2694
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hans, don't take the bait. The premise was false in the first place and going down this road will derail an excellent thread. There hasn't been any suggestion of "American exceptionalism" in here. There have been clearly qualified statements that we have excellent healthcare (and we do) and that we have the benefit of going later in this than so many other countries, so that we have more information to work with and more time to work with it. There hasn't been any spirit of "we are better than you." That doesn't stop folks from misperceiving but there you have it.


So again, not the case.

The premise was not false, as outlined in my post # 2532 (wherein references can be found to some relevant comments).

No disagreement on the general good nature of American healthcare, but a challenge to the impact that will have on COVID in the US given that:
- US healthcare structural issues discussed previously
- WHO paper (referenced in post # 2532) which found that the US overall performed quite poorly on in general healthcare performance when compared internationally.

Not quite what CR would have the jury believe, but those posts are there. Feel free to read and judge for yourself.

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Post #: 2567
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:47:43 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9080
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

What EXACTLY the "f" is the issue with the belief on the part of Americans in American exceptionalism?

Why should evidence of it in a thread Americans are participating in be any kind of a surprise or any kind of an issue to anyone?

Our generation grew up being indoctrinated in the belief in American exceptionalism. It's perfectly NATURAL for it to be in evidence here.

Work on getting that chip off your shoulder.


It seems a reasonable expectation that anything coming close to a realistic assessment of the current situation would involve some degree of self-awareness of both conscious and unconscious bias.

Instead we get claims touted that the US is going to be the exception to the international norm for COVID. Explanations offered (superior US healthcare) have been challenged with evidence (WHO report into healthcare performance). Waiting for the debate to actually get to the evidence instead of just focusing on my personal failings as an individual.

Happy to wait...



I think some folks find references to American exceptionalism to be something that is linked to all sorts of other connotations and emotions, making them feel that they are under attack.

As far as evidence, I think there is some evidence that the US might stay under the "Italian curve" long term, but I think the most likely explanation for this is not that the US health care system is better (although it does have more intensive care beds per capita than any other country, save for Germany*). The other Occam's razor explanation (beds being the first) for why we might be under the curve is geography.

* Germany may also be under the Italian curve, although not by much. It could also just be noise in early data.

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 3/31/2020 4:52:50 PM >

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Post #: 2568
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:50:51 PM   
Canoerebel


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I don't drink coffee, Loka, but exception is taken when people misrepresent what was said, the spirit in which it has been said, and persistently wish to sidetrack a thread to engage in personal disagreements.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/31/2020 4:51:08 PM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2569
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 4:59:06 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't drink coffee, Loka, but exception is taken when people misrepresent what was said, the spirit in which it has been said, and persistently wish to sidetrack a thread to engage in personal disagreements.



Citations please? I've seen citations from one side that directly contradict your claim of misrepresentation, but nothing to support that claim from you besides your assertions. I'm rather disappointed by attempts to control the narrative in this way.

FWIW, I don't think he was bringing it up with any malicious intent or assumption of malice on your part. It's just something worth pointing out, and it does everyone good to examine the heuristics behind what they're saying, regardless of where they're from.

How about tea? That's got caffeine. *shrug*

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2570
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:06:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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I don't wish to sidetrack this thread with lengthy political and personal disagreements and long posts and counter-posts of "you said this" and "I said that." I see no profit in doing so when discussing things not pertinent to the topic of this thread. With that in mind, I replied to his three "American exceptionalism" assertions with as much brevity as possible. We'd do well to let this go and move back to the main topic.





< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/31/2020 5:07:08 PM >

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Post #: 2571
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:13:22 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2694
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't wish to sidetrack this thread with lengthy political and personal disagreements and long posts and counter-posts of "you said this" and "I said that." I see no profit in doing so when discussing things not pertinent to the topic of this thread. With that in mind, I replied to his three "American exceptionalism" assertions with as much brevity as possible. We'd do well to let this go and move back to the main topic.






What is your genuine expectation here?

"Canoerebel doesn't like the turn the thread has taken. Canoerebel says we need to discuss something else. Quick folks, let's discuss something else!"

Really?

At any rate, Loka hits the nail on the head. I've cited my evidence. People can read for themselves.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2572
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:15:15 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

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So far, the only big question is to what extent you gain immunity after you got the virus.

I still haven't found clear answers regarding this, maybe some of you has more resources or studies available.


I believe that's the only possible game changer we have at the present time. Vaccinations and cures will take long. However, if at least a part of the population can go back to work, it can really help the restrictions to be done properly. What I mean is that, with the current situation, no country can resist in total lockdown for more than few weeks.
Instead, if at least a good share of the population can go back to work, economical disruption would be far less and, therefore, countries would have more time to stay in lockdown before going bankrupt.
I guess that's the main element.


Also, honestly, I don't see how the quality of some healthcare system compared to another can be helpful in analysing this tragedy. I think that most of the developed western countries are around the same level, some "points" more or less in a ranking don't change much. In general,

Maybe it's my humanitarian worker's fatalism, but in case of troubles I believe it's more a matter of dumb luck than anything else.


For example: in WHO statistics, Czech Republic is quite far behind (46th I believe) and Italy 2nd. Still, I wouldn't be unconfortable in getting cured here instead of Italy (a part from the huge language barrier, of course). I suppose there are strong differences, but they're not as impacting as we might think.

I guess we should consider rankings relatively unimportant in exceptional situations such as the one we are living.


PS. Yes, you Americans are all very proud of your country, don't know whether it is enough to say there is some kind of "exceptionalism", but that's it. I suppose everyone has some kind of "exceptionalism" toward his or her own country.

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Post #: 2573
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:18:43 PM   
DD696

 

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Mind_Messing, I think I can safely say that your little pissing contest has grown tiresome.

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Post #: 2574
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:18:54 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 706
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
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Oh boy. Someone visited the General Discussion forum and catched the STATSvid-20 virus. Now we all need to be checked...

_____________________________

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"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2575
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:22:09 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I'm still not sure that you can equate that flu statistic to the 'deaths per million' numbers in the chart.

Using a rough estimate of the flu season as lasting 120 days the 147/million figure equates to 1.2 deaths per day per million pop.


I recognize that the duration of the typical flu season is *much* greater than the duration of this mortality curve is likely to be. Cumulative deaths per million would be a constant comparing these two disease seasons. The only difference would be the length of the seasons. I'm not attempting to extrapolate comparative deaths/MM/day, which is what you are suggesting.

Another way to interpret what Italy is seeing in mortality would be that "Italy has already had-in 3 weeks-the mortality associated with a really bad flu season spread out over several months." That's meaningful, as it reflects the surge in cases.

_____________________________


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Post #: 2576
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:23:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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The thread is dedicated to coronavirus. There are many differences in opinion and the vast majority of Forumites manage to get along, or so it seems to me, and there's been alot of vigorous back and forth for weeks. I don't understand the sudden urge to get sidetracked to veer off on unproductive tangents. We know what'll happen. We'll fracture into different camps, argue, and eventually the thread will dry up. Where's the sense in doing that?

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 2577
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:31:30 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it's still deadlier than seasonal flu
March 31, 2020


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

"How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.
The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die."

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Post #: 2578
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:31:48 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is a really extensively researched map from the NY Times which goes by county records. It's pretty granular for a large visual.

What is interesting to me is that this is getting everywhere now. Even small, isolated rural areas. I would like to see a similar one for where the testing is happening. If anyone sees that let me know.




The granularity of using counties as a means of tracking reporting has me scratching my head a little bit. I like it better than just statewide data, but not all states' counties are the same. For example, Texas has 254 counties, more than any other state. California (with a larger population) only has 58 counties, with most of the population in less than a dozen of them.

So looking at a visual map of cases based on county data would suggest that Texas' infections are more spread out than they are and California's are more cloistered than they are. Iowa, with 99 counties and a lower population would look really spread out. I don't know which is the right answer...

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 3/31/2020 5:32:05 PM >


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(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2579
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 5:35:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Originally, the death rate figure widely circulated was 3% to 4%. Eventually, that dropped to 1%, which has been the benchmark for several weeks now. If it's actually at 0.66%, that's a major change.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it's still deadlier than seasonal flu
March 31, 2020


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

"How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.
The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die."


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 2580
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