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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 7:48:12 AM   
Yaab


Posts: 4061
Joined: 11/8/2011
From: Poland
Status: offline
I had a lucid-covid dream last night.

Russell Crowe meets the infamous colonel Shiro Ishii and yells at him "Are you not entertained?!".

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 2521
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 9:13:03 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
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quote:

I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible?


For me it's just about looking at the current rates and making estimates based on expectations from China and Italy's reported progress (Increasingly have less confidence in China's accuracy, but Italy seems to possibly be following it).

US *has* slid from deaths doubling every 3 days to every 4 days according to our world in data (which is good!), so I shifted my numbers from 1.26 per day to 1.19 (this does make a pretty big difference) and updated the initial number to 3156. Assuming a plateau of about 10 days:

If we plateau in 7 days, 27k deaths when the US starts its decline.
If we plateau in 14 days, it's 93k deaths


To see how big of a difference a change in the rate makes, at doubling every 3 days it'd be:

7 days: 49k deaths
14 days: 245k deaths


The biggest x-factor for US I think is it's geography and how far had the virus spread to places that we are less aware of. The geographical distance is good to mitigate infection, but there may have been travel that delayed some of the outbreaks. It also will do weird things to the aggregate US numbers as a place like NY state may decline while for example Michigan's numbers get worse. I could see this meaning a peak that doesn't get as high but a plateau that lasts longer.

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 2522
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 11:34:39 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7236
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

I had a lucid-covid dream last night.

Russell Crowe meets the infamous colonel Shiro Ishii and yells at him "Are you not entertained?!".

Then Joaquin Phoenix stabs him, right? Or was it Jared Leto?

(in reply to Yaab)
Post #: 2523
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 11:59:02 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2695
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible? Let me see what I can do to buttress Canoerebel's optimism.

Look, in Korea, although there are fears of a second round, we've been dropping about 200 cases a day (there are about 100 new ones and about 300 get well). I look outside from my office window and there are plenty of people out and about. We've still had zero government-mandated closures, although on a voluntary basis there are no concerts and cinemas are closed. Almost all churches have virtual services and shops have always had an adequate supply of tree-based products. The one thing being rationed is masks.

What seems to work? Well, about 95% of the people here wear masks in public. Our government has seen fit to allocate two masks per person per week, so that's 100 million a week at $1.25 each (KF94 for adults and KF80 for kids, if anyone cares). That's a lot of masks, but what's keeping 600,000,000 masks a week from being available in the U.S.? Not top-quality 3M N95 ones, but regular ones the general public can wear?

Another thing that seems to help a lot is very extensive contact tracing, by means of phone location, credit card usage, CCTVs, etc. The government will send an alert to your phone if someone nearby has the virus (maybe within 1/2 km), with details of when and where they've been since they returned to the country or since they were likely to have picked it up from someone in country. The government also has the manpower to individually contact everyone suspected of personally being in contact with each virus carrier. I think this system has given the general populace the confidence to go to work, go shopping and go out drinking and eating. People have some concept of the actual risks. Is Korea's contact tracing program a draconian loss of liberty? Well, you might argue the forced closure of business is worse. To me, it's a grey area.

Other things like testing have been well discussed. Today, I see an opportunity for the copious availability of masks and thorough contact tracing to make a difference in certain places.

Anyway, good luck and know that this thing is quite beatable.

Cheers,
CB




Comparing the US approach with that of South Korea is comparing apples and oranges.

As an outsider, there's been a strong vein of American exceptionalism in this thread. Things akin to "the US health service amazing and will easily cope", and other claims that aren't really supported by the international health rankings.

Granted, it's nearly twenty years old, but it does challenge these assumptions

https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf

Also, if anyone knows any more recent comprehensive comparison work on healthcare performance, please let me know.

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 2524
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 12:28:05 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible? Let me see what I can do to buttress Canoerebel's optimism.

Look, in Korea, although there are fears of a second round, we've been dropping about 200 cases a day (there are about 100 new ones and about 300 get well). I look outside from my office window and there are plenty of people out and about. We've still had zero government-mandated closures, although on a voluntary basis there are no concerts and cinemas are closed. Almost all churches have virtual services and shops have always had an adequate supply of tree-based products. The one thing being rationed is masks.

What seems to work? Well, about 95% of the people here wear masks in public. Our government has seen fit to allocate two masks per person per week, so that's 100 million a week at $1.25 each (KF94 for adults and KF80 for kids, if anyone cares). That's a lot of masks, but what's keeping 600,000,000 masks a week from being available in the U.S.? Not top-quality 3M N95 ones, but regular ones the general public can wear?

Another thing that seems to help a lot is very extensive contact tracing, by means of phone location, credit card usage, CCTVs, etc. The government will send an alert to your phone if someone nearby has the virus (maybe within 1/2 km), with details of when and where they've been since they returned to the country or since they were likely to have picked it up from someone in country. The government also has the manpower to individually contact everyone suspected of personally being in contact with each virus carrier. I think this system has given the general populace the confidence to go to work, go shopping and go out drinking and eating. People have some concept of the actual risks. Is Korea's contact tracing program a draconian loss of liberty? Well, you might argue the forced closure of business is worse. To me, it's a grey area.

Other things like testing have been well discussed. Today, I see an opportunity for the copious availability of masks and thorough contact tracing to make a difference in certain places.

Anyway, good luck and know that this thing is quite beatable.

Cheers,
CB




Comparing the US approach with that of South Korea is comparing apples and oranges.

As an outsider, there's been a strong vein of American exceptionalism in this thread. Things akin to "the US health service amazing and will easily cope", and other claims that aren't really supported by the international health rankings.

Granted, it's nearly twenty years old, but it does challenge these assumptions

https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf

Also, if anyone knows any more recent comprehensive comparison work on healthcare performance, please let me know.


"Overall efficiency in all WHO member states"
#1 France
#2 Italy
...
#37 USA

Well. the proof will be in the pudding.

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2525
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 12:30:25 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
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Coronavirus: Questions over true death toll as hospital records almost three times more deaths than official figures show
30 March 2020


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/coronavirus-questions-true-death-toll-london-hospital-records/


"The official death toll for Coronavirus is lower than the true number of casualties reported by hospitals, it was claimed on Sunday night."

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Post #: 2526
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 12:33:02 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
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True number of UK Coronavirus deaths could be 24% MORE than official figures: Government reveals 40 more people died outside hospitals up to March 20th compared with official death toll of 170 - and 93% were aged over 65
31 March 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8171025/UKs-TRUE-coronavirus-death-toll-revealed.html

"he true death toll of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK could be 24 per cent higher than NHS figures show, according to statistics released today.

Patients who had COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificates numbered 210 in England and Wales up to March 20, the Office for National Statistics revealed.

This was 24 per cent higher than the 170 deaths recorded by NHS England and Public Health Wales during the same time frame.

If the ratio has stayed true since that time, the true current number of fatalities could be around 1,739 instead of the official 1,408."


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Post #: 2527
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 12:35:36 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Covid-19’s meant to be a new Black Death, but in Britain no more people are dying than NORMAL. What does this say about the virus?
31 Mar, 2020

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/484548-coronavirus--people-die-outcome/


"Many people are waking up to the fact that the Covid-19 “pandemic” is not turning out as billed. When we finally emerge from it, the big question will be how many people have died from the virus. Here’s the most likely outcome.

You can bet that the institutions of international government, and the “experts” advising them, will try to massage and cherry-pick statistics to present the version of events that most closely matches their worst-case scenarios. The fact is, according to their early predictions, we are already long overdue millions of Covid-19 deaths that have failed to materialise.

But even when Covid-19 deaths are recorded, we have seen how it could be that people are dying with coronavirus rather than dying of it. This concept is easy enough to understand, and it encourages one to take a closer look at the breakdown of deaths across an entire society. The more you follow this rabbit hole down, the more interesting the numbers become. It may be somewhat morbid, but it is nonetheless very important."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/31/2020 12:43:24 PM >


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Post #: 2528
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 1:05:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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MindMessing has misrepresented the truth of what has been said by his fellow Forumites and the spirit in which things have been said.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 2529
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 1:09:54 PM   
obvert


Posts: 13952
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible? Let me see what I can do to buttress Canoerebel's optimism.


I think you're just getting a wider range of information. It's not pessimism as much as reading the data out there and finding it discouraging. We'd all like to be optimists here, but it's hard right now if data doesn't support that. There are some encouraging signs, but some disheartening ones too.

quote:



What seems to work? Well, about 95% of the people here wear masks in public. Our government has seen fit to allocate two masks per person per week, so that's 100 million a week at $1.25 each (KF94 for adults and KF80 for kids, if anyone cares). That's a lot of masks, but what's keeping 600,000,000 masks a week from being available in the U.S.? Not top-quality 3M N95 ones, but regular ones the general public can wear?

Cheers,
CB



After watching a NY doctor talk about how to protect myself and family (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxyH1rkuLaw) I've come to the conclusion that the most important things I can do are clean my hands like a fanatic, wipe surfaces touched by anyone who delivers, comes back inside, and every package arriving, and not touch my face.

He made the valid point that for most people a mask is very useful as a way of stopping you from touching your face. That's it. Unless you're in a situation with a person who is infected for a long duration, a mask isn't really needed. But it does help keep you from touching your face and if you're positive without knowing it, it protects others. So I also wear one all of the time now.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


Comparing the US approach with that of South Korea is comparing apples and oranges.

As an outsider, there's been a strong vein of American exceptionalism in this thread. Things akin to "the US health service amazing and will easily cope", and other claims that aren't really supported by the international health rankings.

Granted, it's nearly twenty years old, but it does challenge these assumptions

https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf

Also, if anyone knows any more recent comprehensive comparison work on healthcare performance, please let me know.


I posted an article a number of pages back on the relative strengths of different health care types and systems across the world. It picked five of the top ones and ranked them in different categories. The US was one of them and it's research/innovation came out very high if I recall correctly. I think it was France on top though.

It's not always which works best in normal circumstances here, though. It's which can upscale, adapt, learn and grow based on other countries' experiences. South Korea has done that. Germany seems to be doing that well. Possibly some others.

I'm very encouraged, actually, by recent moves happening in the US to scale care, create more facilities and equipment. And testing.


< Message edited by obvert -- 3/31/2020 1:16:39 PM >


_____________________________

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(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2530
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 1:16:57 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

quote:

I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible?


For me it's just about looking at the current rates and making estimates based on expectations from China and Italy's reported progress (Increasingly have less confidence in China's accuracy, but Italy seems to possibly be following it).

US *has* slid from deaths doubling every 3 days to every 4 days according to our world in data (which is good!), so I shifted my numbers from 1.26 per day to 1.19 (this does make a pretty big difference) and updated the initial number to 3156. Assuming a plateau of about 10 days:

If we plateau in 7 days, 27k deaths when the US starts its decline.
If we plateau in 14 days, it's 93k deaths


To see how big of a difference a change in the rate makes, at doubling every 3 days it'd be:

7 days: 49k deaths
14 days: 245k deaths


The biggest x-factor for US I think is it's geography and how far had the virus spread to places that we are less aware of. The geographical distance is good to mitigate infection, but there may have been travel that delayed some of the outbreaks. It also will do weird things to the aggregate US numbers as a place like NY state may decline while for example Michigan's numbers get worse. I could see this meaning a peak that doesn't get as high but a plateau that lasts longer.


I'm on track with your thinking alanschu.

Went through the state by state numbers this morning and the overall national numbers. I believe that we're showing pretty convincing evidence of approaching a peak in national new cases per day. I'm going to say we get there in 3 days. Deaths per day will, of course, lag but maybe within 7-10 days for the national numbers.

There are other troublesome state trends, but the data is wonky. California is still reporting >50,000 'pending' tests. It's been that way for at least the last week. I don't know if that represents backlog of tests that haven't been performed or some reporting profile glitch.

Michigan is also troublesome in terms of wonky data. Between 27-28 March, they performed roughly 2500 tests, but had *no* positives. There's also a note on the COVID Tracking Project site that states that on 26 March Michigan changed their reporting to 'total specimens tested' instead of the more intuitive 'total people tested'. So without knowing how many samples per person are tested, I can't tell what a 'positive' result from Michigan translates to.

On a state-by-state basis, most states are tracking well below a 10% attack rate (number of positives / number of tests). In addition to New York / New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan, Florida are doubling cases more rapidly than the national norm. Illinois is doubling cases circa every 4 days, which is a positive trend. Texas is in good shape.

I am starting to be optimistic about the next 4 days.

_____________________________


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Post #: 2531
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 1:26:16 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2695
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MindMessing has misrepresented the truth of what has been said by his fellow Forumites and the spirit in which things have been said.


Is that so?

Happy to reference:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4773117

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4784923

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4773597

I do recall similar sentiments echoed from others, but the Matrix search function makes it challenging to do a text search for relevant terms.

Mayhaps I have misrepresented, but then you should try to develop a counter-argument to the evidence presented?

quote:

I posted an article a number of pages back on the relative strengths of different health care types and systems across the world. It picked five of the top ones and ranked them in different categories. The US was one of them and it's research/innovation came out very high if I recall correctly. I think it was France on top though.

It's not always which works best in normal circumstances here, though. It's which can upscale, adapt, learn and grow based on other countries' experiences. South Korea has done that. Germany seems to be doing that well. Possibly some others.

I'm very encouraged, actually, by recent moves happening in the US to scale care, create more facilities and equipment. And testing.


IIRC, the US tops out at the top in terms of spending, so the R&D being in pole position makes sense.

What I find most interesting is that doesn't translate into positive health outcomes in the US, which lags behind quite a few nations that you normally wouldn't consider on par with the US.

Of course, in any sort of comprehensive comparison there will be caveats, but it's surprising to see the US (and even the UK!) ranked so low. There's obviously a great many factors, but it has been a bit of a shock to my complacency.

I'll reiterate if anyone knows of work along these lines that's more recent, as it's all I've came across that takes a generalist approach as opposed to a collection of KPI's (mammography, for example, which is of less relevance here).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2532
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 1:58:20 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
MindMessing, we can sidetrack this thread with our personal views, but that'll be a disservice to everybody.

To everyone else viewing, click on MindMessing's links above supporting his claim of American exceptionalism run amock. Enough said.

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 2533
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:06:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Spain's really been taking it on the chin of late, but the chart of daily new cases seems to be trending positively. (Assuming, as is universally the case, that the reporting data is accurate.)




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Post #: 2534
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:09:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
France's new cases daily fluctuates wildly, likely a result of when and how new cases are reported. Seems like France is still on the upswing, however.




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Post #: 2535
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:11:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Italy showing strong trending.**

**As always, anxiously awaiting today's report.




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Post #: 2536
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:14:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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It looks like the UK is comparatively early into the progression.




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Post #: 2537
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:16:47 PM   
Canoerebel


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Germany seems early in its progression, too, though the past two days have trended good.




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Post #: 2538
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:20:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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US also early in its progression.

The explosion in testing makes it hard for me to use the New Cases chart of the USA (I still prefer mortality, even though it has weaknesses). But its helpful to get insight from a Forumite like JohnDillworth, given his position, and from statisticians (like alanschu).

Speaking of stats fellows, where has Kull been the past few days?






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Post #: 2539
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:26:19 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
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From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

US also early in its progression.

The explosion in testing makes it hard for me to use the New Cases chart of the USA (I still prefer mortality, even though it has weaknesses). But its helpful to get insight from a Forumite like JohnDillworth, given his position, and from statisticians (like alanschu).

Speaking of stats fellows, where has Kull been the past few days?







The US has been performing ~100,000 tests per day for the last week or so. From here, there's a slight expansion forecast, but I don't envision us getting to a place where we'll be testing 1,000,000 / day.

Still-in light of an expanding testing capacity, we're starting to inflect new cases per day to the plateau phase. If we expand our testing but keep a proportionally tame number of new cases per day, I think that bodes well and will reflect a decreasing national prevalence (which is good!).

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Post #: 2540
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:30:47 PM   
Canoerebel


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So, if I understand, New Cases is more reliable now and that will progress as we continue. That makes sense. Thanks.

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Post #: 2541
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:42:43 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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Yesterday's numbers sorted by deaths per MM. The Netherlands' climb up this chart bothers me. The United States and Germany still looking pretty good by comparison. Again, my US-centric 'landmark' for a really bad flu season's mortality would be 147/MM population.




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Post #: 2542
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:48:29 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
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Isn't every death a "new death" to the victim? Unless you are talking about cats.

When this is over we need to confiscate every dollar in the Chicom national wealth fund. They may resist, but the aggrieved parties need to persist.*


*I stole this from the Lizzie Warren campaign, sort of.

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Post #: 2543
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:55:49 PM   
witpqs


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Thailand's king self-quarantining in Germany with 20 women, servants: reports

It's good to be the king.

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Post #: 2544
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:03:22 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2695
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MindMessing, we can sidetrack this thread with our personal views, but that'll be a disservice to everybody.

To everyone else viewing, click on MindMessing's links above supporting his claim of American exceptionalism run amock. Enough said.


I see you did not take note of my careful choice of words. Let me make that explicit.

quote:

As an outsider, there's been a strong vein of American exceptionalism in this thread.


I'm not sure how you managed to interpret that the way you did.

FWIW, I think denizens of the forum can draw their own conclusions without your prompts.

Still to hear any counter-arguments from you on the point, or are we doubling down on ad hominems?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2545
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:04:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
MindMessing, I explained myself clearly and accurately above. I'm not going to sidetrack this thread further to deal with your malcontent, misreporting, and bad faith.

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Post #: 2546
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:14:14 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
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From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
When this is over we need to confiscate every dollar in the Chicom national wealth fund.


Well there's not many there. Dollars that is. Now Renminbi/Yuan on the other hand...

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Post #: 2547
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:21:27 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 14365
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Thailand's king self-quarantining in Germany with 20 women, servants: reports

It's good to be the king.

Well, it depends on how many of those 20 women are wives ...

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Post #: 2548
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:23:42 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24691
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Thailand's king self-quarantining in Germany with 20 women, servants: reports

It's good to be the king.

Well, it depends on how many of those 20 women are wives ...

The article says it's uncertain if any of his 4 wives are there, but it does describe the 20 women as concubines...

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Post #: 2549
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 3:24:12 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Isn't every death a "new death" to the victim? Unless you are talking about cats.

When this is over we need to confiscate every dollar in the Chicom national wealth fund. They may resist, but the aggrieved parties need to persist.*


*I stole this from the Lizzie Warren campaign, sort of.



It does sounds like someone who took an axe, and gave her mother forty whacks, and when she saw what she had done, gave her father forty-one, would say.

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
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