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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:18:22 PM   
obvert


Posts: 13952
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Wife is feeling ill (cough, aches, runny nose) and she called health service early in the morning. They feel that it's probably not Covid, but have asked us to isolate for 10 days as a precaution.

Primarily only affects her (she still had to go to work, now is not), but will mean we don't do any provision runs (we should be okay though).


Runny nose is rarely a symptom, but who knows these days for the mild cases. Stay well and hope she feels better soon.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 2491
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:32:44 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24691
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Wife is feeling ill (cough, aches, runny nose) and she called health service early in the morning. They feel that it's probably not Covid, but have asked us to isolate for 10 days as a precaution.

Primarily only affects her (she still had to go to work, now is not), but will mean we don't do any provision runs (we should be okay though).


Runny nose is rarely a symptom, but who knows these days for the mild cases. Stay well and hope she feels better soon.

Here is the list of symptoms from that Johns Hopkins page.
quote:


Symptoms

Fever (44%–98%)
Range may be lower at initial hospital presentation or in the outpatient setting
Cough (46–82%, usually dry)
Shortness of breath at onset (31%)
Myalgia or fatigue (11–44%)
Less common symptoms:
Pharyngitis
Headache
Productive cough
GI symptoms
Have been described as a presenting symptom, and potentially heralding more severe illness.
Hemoptysis

https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_#1

_____________________________


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Post #: 2492
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:35:26 PM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline
Wish I could really share the optimism? Hesitated two days to post this.
You are sitting comfortable, please?

Meanwhile, a leaked strategy paper from the German Interior Ministry as quoted by trustworthy newspapers and state TV.

"According to experts, by far the most important measure against the virus is "testing and isolating the infected persons".

The ministry compares three scenarios on the course of the epidemic.
The "Worst Case" scenario assumes that the doubling of the number of infected persons will increase from 3 days at the beginning to 6 days in mid-April and to 9 days at the end of April (currently it is almost 5 1/2 days and rising). In this case, about 70 percent of the population would have been infected by the end of May. Up to 350,000 people would require intensive medical care at the same time - which, given the available capacities, would mean that 85 percent of those who need it would have to be turned away. In this scenario, almost 1.2 million people would die from the corona virus within two months. Based on projections from other countries, the Ministry of the Interior assumes a mortality rate of 1.2 percent(*), provided that sufficient hospital care is available; at times when capacities are insufficient, a mortality rate of 2 percent is assumed.

In a [second] scenario known as "stretching", it is assumed that the doubling of the number of infected persons will increase to 6 days by the beginning of April and to 9 days by mid-April as a result of stricter measures to reduce physical contact. In this case, only about 20 percent of the population would be infected. The demand for intensive care beds would only slightly exceed the capacity, so that only 16 percent of patients would have to be turned away. In this scenario, only about 220,000 people would die. However, the state of emergency with extensive contact restrictions would have to last about 7 months.

STRATEGY PAPER OF THE INTERIOR MINISTRY "To make testing faster and more efficient, the use of Big Data and location tracking is essential in the longer term." The third scenario is called "Hammer and Dance", apparently in reference to a much quoted article on containment strategies for the corona epidemic. This assumes that in addition to extending the doubling time, the spread of the virus can then be greatly reduced by extensive testing and isolation of infected persons. This will reduce the number of infected persons to a total of around 1 million and the number of dead to 12,000.

"The experts hope that the test capacity in Germany can be increased "very quickly". They are running a scenario in which 50,000 tests per day are possible from 6th April, 100,000 from 13th April and 200,000 at the end of April. 300,000 to 500,000 coronavirus tests per week are currently possible, according to Health Minister Jens Spahn." (SZ 27th March)

Besides the health consequences, the Ministry of the Interior also warns in drastic words of the economic and social consequences. In the best case scenario of rapid containment and control of further spread, the gross domestic product would only fall by 4 percent. In the worst case, a slump of 32 percent is conceivable. The paper describes what this could mean as follows: "It threatens to change the community into a completely different basic state, up to anarchy."




What does this mean for other countries?


Source: suddeutsche, NDR, WDR - translation via Deepl.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/coronavirus-tests-strategie-1.4858950?sc_src=email_1451247&sc_lid=130281898&sc_uid=oDSIkHeApY&sc_llid=16047
---
(*) very optimistic IMHO, even South Korea confirmed 3%

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 2493
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:22:49 PM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Runny nose is rarely a symptom, but who knows these days for the mild cases. Stay well and hope she feels better soon.


Yeah, I suspect that that symptom in particular is why the person on the phone told her it likely was not Covid-19. Fortunately we're able to endure a minor quarantine without loss of income.

Although working from home when I'm not alone is a lot more difficult just due to distractions.

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/30/2020 7:24:38 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2494
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:24:27 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5188
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Look at the date when this started:

How 3M Plans to Make More Than a Billion Masks By End of Year

quote:

Aberdeen, S.D., got the call from headquarters on Tuesday, Jan. 21. He gathered about 20 managers and supervisors into a conference room, where they sat, unworried, less than 6 feet apart. Rehder told them that a new virus was spreading rapidly in China and that 3M was expecting demand for protective gear to jump.

The Aberdeen plant had already ramped up production of respirator masks in response to demand from first responders battling wildfires in Australia and contending with a volcano in the Philippines. Now, Rehder told his charges, Aberdeen would shift to “surge capacity.” Idle machinery installed for precisely this purpose would be activated, and many of the plant’s 650 employees would immediately start working overtime. “We knew it wouldn’t be a two-week blip, it would be longer,” Rehder says. “But I had no idea.”
relates to How 3M Plans to Make More Than a Billion Masks By End of Year
Featured in Bloomberg Businessweek, March 30, 2020. Subscribe now.
Photo illustration: 731; Photographer: Jamie Chung for Bloomberg Businessweek

This is 3M’s moment, one for which the staid, 118-year-old Minnesota manufacturing giant—the maker of Post-its, Scotch tape, touchscreen displays, and scores of other products—has been preparing for almost two decades. Coming out of the SARS epidemic of 2002-03, the company realized it wasn’t fully equipped to handle unexpected explosions of demand in the event of a crisis, or what it calls an “X factor.” It decided to build surge capacity into its respirator factories around the world.

Over the years, with X factors such as the Ebola panic and the H1N1 flu virus generating flash floods of demand, the company kept refining its emergency response. When the world started clamoring for respirator masks to help confront coronavirus, 3M was ready.

People everywhere are scrambling for ventilators, Covid-19 test kits, bleach, and toilet paper. But almost no item is as scarce—and as vital to addressing this medical emergency—as the N95 respirator masks made by 3M, Honeywell, Medicom, and a smattering of other companies. Without respirators, doctors, nurses, and other medical personnel are at increased risk of contracting the affliction they’re treating.

China, where this coronavirus originated, also happens to produce half the world’s respirators. As the outbreak spread, the Chinese government halted mask exports and demanded that all in-country manufacturers, including 3M, crank up production. Shortages swiftly developed as Covid-19 cases appeared in Asia, Europe, and the U.S., forcing health-care workers to reuse old respirators and cobble together ersatz masks from materials bought at craft stores. In America, states are bidding against one another for masks priced as much as 10 times the usual cost of 60¢ to 80¢ apiece.

3M can’t save the day on its own, but it’s promising a remarkably large contribution. The company has in two months doubled global production of N95 masks to about 100 million a month, and it’s planning to invest in new equipment to push annual mask production to 2 billion within 12 months. On March 22, Chief Executive Officer Mike Roman said in a news release that 3M had sent 500,000 respirators to hard-hit Seattle and New York City, and that it was ramping up production of hand sanitizers and disinfectants as well. Two days later, Roman said 3M would work with Ford Motor Co. to produce powered air purifying respirators, waist-mounted devices that blow air into helmets that shield wearers. Honeywell is also increasing N95 production, saying it will hire at least 500 people to expand capacity at a facility in Rhode Island.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-25/3m-doubled-production-of-n95-face-masks-to-fight-coronavirus?utm_source=pocket-newtab

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 2495
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:26:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Last week, a Brit university revised expected mortality in the UK to 20k, down from something like 500k in earlier projections. No way Germany is going to let the UK kick its butt.

(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 2496
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:36:17 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Two days.... April 1..... All them monthly Guber'ment checks will be hitting accounts.


Mad Max at the stores?!

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/30/2020 7:37:25 PM >


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Post #: 2497
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:39:58 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
RI has 132 cases of COVID-19; stores must limit crowds of customers
Mar 25, 2020

https://www.wpri.com/health/coronavirus/march-25-coronavirus-update/

"She (Gov. Gina Raimondo) said the state was getting too many reports of “big box stores” with too many people inside in close proximity.

“The only way I can continue to keep these big stores open is if we try a little bit harder to avoid crowds,” Raimondo said. She acknowledged that it might result in lines outside stores, and said people would be asked to space themselves out in line as they wait to go inside."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/30/2020 7:40:19 PM >


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Post #: 2498
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:44:47 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
ID2020 and partners launch program to provide digital ID with vaccines
Sep 20, 2019

https://www.biometricupdate.com/201909/id2020-and-partners-launch-program-to-provide-digital-id-with-vaccines

"The ID2020 Alliance has launched a new digital identity program at its annual summit in New York, in collaboration with the Government of Bangladesh, vaccine alliance Gavi, and new partners in government, academia, and humanitarian relief.

The program to leverage immunization as an opportunity to establish digital identity was unveiled by ID2020 in partnership with the Bangladesh Government’s Access to Information (a2i) Program, the Directorate General of Health Services, and Gavi, according to the announcement.

Digital identity is a computerized record of who a person is, stored in a registry. It is used, in this case, to keep track of who has received vaccination."

_____________________________


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Post #: 2499
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:46:24 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
"The ID2020 Alliance is setting the course of digital ID through a multi-stakeholder partnership, ensuring digital ID is responsibly implemented and widely accessible."


"Steering the market towards good digital ID solutions through our Certification Mark."



https://id2020.org/

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/30/2020 7:47:04 PM >


_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 2500
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:59:34 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 14365
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

On your points 1 and 2:

1. The global population is growing at a greatly decelerating rate. It has been found conclusively that as a country's standard of living increases its birth rate decreases. The very large improvements in people's standard's of living around the world has dissolved the specter of global overpopulation as projections show the world's population leveling off far below what is believed to be the planet's carrying capacity.

2. The number of people around the world who live below the poverty line has vastly decreased in recent decades. That is according to the UN. Continuing progress has been evident and not slowed down. The current economic effects of the pandemic obviously are up in the air.

Economic disparity has not been growing exponentially. If you are referring to the presence of billionaires among us, the truth has always been that some humans have more than others. Governments/economies such as communism, etc have always had the very same and merely pretended otherwise, their real characteristic being that they oppress and economically hold down the vast majority of people. They do not limit or eliminate economic disparity, but they do hold down nearly everybody economically. That's not better.

What I see happening (and did not explain well) is that the food (and potable water) supply is under pressure from population and climate change. The recent migrant crises in various parts of the world are either because there is not enough food for the poor or because conflicts (over control of land, and hence food) have driven people off their lands. They are not going to go away because the economic system does not have a reliable system for dealing with them. The pandemic merely amplifies the problems.
So the one clear consequence is that starving people will not sit quietly when told to stay where they are and starve/die of disease, etc. To a certain extent that will occur with refugees within our countries who will move to what they perceive is a safer area. We saw that with New Yorkers fleeing the city to Long Island and upstate towns when they realized the virus was going to spread rapidly.

If this disease does not go away in a few months we may have a ping-pong transmission as people move around for jobs or safety. If more people had savings they could fall back on, they could stay in place longer. It's the reduction of the middle class that bothered me more than the existence of billionaires. Read again RFalvo's post about Italy having very rich people and poor people and not much in between. The implications mean great social instability is looming.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 2501
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:09:35 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 14365
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

An encouraging sign that US testing is nearing a million. If the US continues to test at this rate it could be so useful as a large benchmark similar to South Korea early and Germany in the middle of this outbreak.

Canada and Norway are doing a bang up job on testing, as are Australia and Germany of course still.

In all of these countries the positives/1000 are also much less than places like Italy and NY state, and it makes me think they're getting a more accurate picture of how many cases might be in the population.





We may have started testing earlier and more broadly, but Canada is in the early stages and the numbers have grown significantly in the past week as the snowbirds returned from (mostly the US) warmer climes. They have been asked to self-quarantine for two weeks but we know some will not do so.

The mortality stat is clearly ~1% of positive tests.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2502
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:09:47 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy




If this disease does not go away in a few months we may have a ping-pong transmission as people move around for jobs or safety. If more people had savings they could fall back on, they could stay in place longer. It's the reduction of the middle class that bothered me more than the existence of billionaires. Read again RFalvo's post about Italy having very rich people and poor people and not much in between. The implications mean great social instability is looming.




Kampfgruppen Coronavirus

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





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Post #: 2503
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:11:55 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Anyone feeling lonely...




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/30/2020 8:13:26 PM >


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Post #: 2504
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:16:50 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last week, a Brit university revised expected mortality in the UK to 20k, down from something like 500k in earlier projections. No way Germany is going to let the UK kick its butt.


[inserts tongue firmly in cheek]

Why not? The Brits have kicked Germany's butt consistently over the past 106 years.

_____________________________


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Post #: 2505
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:25:04 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5188
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Anyone feeling lonely...





My avatar would quickly put them out of their misery . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 2506
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:28:59 PM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline
I wasn't familiar with Roza! (Lyudmila tends to be the most famous of the women snipers at least in my circles)

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 2507
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:32:30 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5188
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Hey, does anybody think that this could have helped now? Especially if the inventory of the masks would be used on a Last In, First Out basis in regards to using the masks before they due date is up? Those used being replaced by fresh ones?

California once had mobile hospitals and a ventilator stockpile. But it dismantled them

quote:

They were ready to roll whenever disaster struck California: three 200-bed mobile hospitals that could be deployed to the scene of a crisis on flatbed trucks and provide advanced medical care to the injured and sick within 72 hours.

Each hospital would be the size of a football field, with a surgery ward, intensive care unit and X-ray equipment. Medical response teams would also have access to a massive stockpile of emergency supplies: 50 million N95 respirators, 2,400 portable ventilators and kits to set up 21,000 additional patient beds wherever they were needed.

In 2006, citing the threat of avian flu, then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced the state would invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a powerful set of medical weapons to deploy in the case of large-scale emergencies and natural disasters such as earthquakes, fires and pandemics.


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-27/coronavirus-california-mobile-hospitals-ventilators


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 2508
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:39:38 PM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9074
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
Governor Hogan issues Stay at Home directive for Maryland

But there are enough loopholes that it has no effect, other than all the maggots re-storming the stores and grabbing all the Toilet Paper, again. Way to go Hogan, you slob.

Meanwhile, local home improvement company Window Nation is offering special COVID-19 deals to help out the citizens of Md. in these trying times. Similarly, a local carpet cleaning company is offering a 'two rooms for one deal' in order to do their part in keeping homes clean, a requisite in fighting off the virus.

Go Maryland !!

< Message edited by sPzAbt653 -- 3/30/2020 8:40:21 PM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2509
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 9:22:17 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24691
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

On your points 1 and 2:

1. The global population is growing at a greatly decelerating rate. It has been found conclusively that as a country's standard of living increases its birth rate decreases. The very large improvements in people's standard's of living around the world has dissolved the specter of global overpopulation as projections show the world's population leveling off far below what is believed to be the planet's carrying capacity.

2. The number of people around the world who live below the poverty line has vastly decreased in recent decades. That is according to the UN. Continuing progress has been evident and not slowed down. The current economic effects of the pandemic obviously are up in the air.

Economic disparity has not been growing exponentially. If you are referring to the presence of billionaires among us, the truth has always been that some humans have more than others. Governments/economies such as communism, etc have always had the very same and merely pretended otherwise, their real characteristic being that they oppress and economically hold down the vast majority of people. They do not limit or eliminate economic disparity, but they do hold down nearly everybody economically. That's not better.

What I see happening (and did not explain well) is that the food (and potable water) supply is under pressure from population and climate change. The recent migrant crises in various parts of the world are either because there is not enough food for the poor or because conflicts (over control of land, and hence food) have driven people off their lands. They are not going to go away because the economic system does not have a reliable system for dealing with them. The pandemic merely amplifies the problems.
So the one clear consequence is that starving people will not sit quietly when told to stay where they are and starve/die of disease, etc. To a certain extent that will occur with refugees within our countries who will move to what they perceive is a safer area. We saw that with New Yorkers fleeing the city to Long Island and upstate towns when they realized the virus was going to spread rapidly.

If this disease does not go away in a few months we may have a ping-pong transmission as people move around for jobs or safety. If more people had savings they could fall back on, they could stay in place longer. It's the reduction of the middle class that bothered me more than the existence of billionaires. Read again RFalvo's post about Italy having very rich people and poor people and not much in between. The implications mean great social instability is looming.

Food production continues very high, no pressure from climate change despite continuing predictions of such, and potable water the same. Wars and conflicts that aren't called wars are the real problem you identify, and are not caused by minute changes in climate.

If people migrate to avoid more densely packed areas like NYC, food, et al distribution will have to catch up. That's already true where violence either makes people starve (as you point out) or drives people away from the areas of violence.

_____________________________


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 2510
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 10:07:20 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 706
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
It is official: the lockdown of Italy has been extended at least to Easter. A new decree for the Coronavirus emergency will be issued within 16 days.

_____________________________

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"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 2511
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 10:15:50 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Hey, does anybody think that this could have helped now? Especially if the inventory of the masks would be used on a Last In, First Out basis in regards to using the masks before they due date is up? Those used being replaced by fresh ones?

California once had mobile hospitals and a ventilator stockpile. But it dismantled them

quote:

They were ready to roll whenever disaster struck California: three 200-bed mobile hospitals that could be deployed to the scene of a crisis on flatbed trucks and provide advanced medical care to the injured and sick within 72 hours.

Each hospital would be the size of a football field, with a surgery ward, intensive care unit and X-ray equipment. Medical response teams would also have access to a massive stockpile of emergency supplies: 50 million N95 respirators, 2,400 portable ventilators and kits to set up 21,000 additional patient beds wherever they were needed.

In 2006, citing the threat of avian flu, then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced the state would invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a powerful set of medical weapons to deploy in the case of large-scale emergencies and natural disasters such as earthquakes, fires and pandemics.


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-27/coronavirus-california-mobile-hospitals-ventilators



Absolutely, it could have helped.

[remaining commentary about California edited in the interests of reducing political content on this thread]

_____________________________


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Post #: 2512
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 10:47:49 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
Jerry Brown spent 1000x the amount Scharzenegger spent on masks on his stupid Browndoggle "high-speed rail" project that now runs between two cities nobody wants to go to.

How must it feel to be outwitted by an Austrian guy with a big jaw who ruined his life by screwing the homely maid and now lives with two miniature horses.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2513
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 11:02:11 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 265
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
A bit of light relief...

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2514
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 11:03:31 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1015
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last week, a Brit university revised expected mortality in the UK to 20k, down from something like 500k in earlier projections. No way Germany is going to let the UK kick its butt.


[inserts tongue firmly in cheek]

Why not? The Brits have kicked Germany's butt consistently over the past 106 years.

Ahem... a small detail: the Brits were allied with... The World.

_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2515
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:04:56 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
What's a Chinese urn?

About 4200 a week and they still aren't done handing them out. Each crematorium in Wuhan typically does about 200 cremations a day and they had to bus in workers to run the things 24 hrs a day during the worst of it...that's maybe 600-1000 a day in Wuhan alone.

One crematorium received a shipment 5000 empty urns in one day. That is a year's worth of usage delivered in one day.

I call bullshit and so do quite a few posters in Wuhan.

quote:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-residents-say-coronavirus-figures-released-by-china-dont-add-up


Hmmm.....

quote:

Another online estimate is based on the cremation capacity of funeral homes in Wuhan, which runs 84 furnaces with a capacity over a 24-hour period of 1,560 urns. That estimate puts the number of estimated deaths in Wuhan at 46,800.


< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 3/31/2020 2:06:59 AM >

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 2516
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 2:23:53 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

What's a Chinese urn?

About 4200 a week and they still aren't done handing them out. Each crematorium in Wuhan typically does about 200 cremations a day and they had to bus in workers to run the things 24 hrs a day during the worst of it...that's maybe 600-1000 a day in Wuhan alone.

One crematorium received a shipment 5000 empty urns in one day. That is a year's worth of usage delivered in one day.

I call bullshit and so do quite a few posters in Wuhan.

quote:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-residents-say-coronavirus-figures-released-by-china-dont-add-up


Hmmm.....

quote:

Another online estimate is based on the cremation capacity of funeral homes in Wuhan, which runs 84 furnaces with a capacity over a 24-hour period of 1,560 urns. That estimate puts the number of estimated deaths in Wuhan at 46,800.



Another "AHA!" moment for me when I read a similar article yesterday. A very CCP solution: Downplay the significance of the people's suffering to buttress your marginal competence? Check. Lie to everyone-domestically and abroad about it? Check. Bribe people into silence so they don't lose their "social points"? Check. Try to deflect or lay the blame at the feet of the US Army? Check.

All part of their "deny, deflect, counteraccusation" manifesto. Chairman Mao must be very pleased.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-official-says-us-army-maybe-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan-2020-3

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 3/31/2020 2:27:33 AM >


_____________________________


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2517
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 6:53:02 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41726
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Olorin


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last week, a Brit university revised expected mortality in the UK to 20k, down from something like 500k in earlier projections. No way Germany is going to let the UK kick its butt.


[inserts tongue firmly in cheek]

Why not? The Brits have kicked Germany's butt consistently over the past 106 years.

Ahem... a small detail: the Brits were allied with... The World.
warspite1

...and what does that sentence tell you?

But I'm sure every right-thinking, decent German is rather pleased the British (and their allies) got rid of that rather odd Kaiser fellow and the malodorous runt Hitler.

And the Germans can be happy in the knowledge they have kicked our butt at just about everything else since: economics, manufacturing, science, education and of course just about every important football match (with just one notable exception) since - how does the song go? Three Lions on a shirt, Jules Rimet still gleaming, 54-years (and counting) of hurt, Never stopped me dreaming (except of course every defeat after miserable defeat 1970, 1972, 1982, 1990, 1996, 2010 has stopped me dreaming) .


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 2518
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 7:06:28 AM   
Yaab


Posts: 4061
Joined: 11/8/2011
From: Poland
Status: offline
Three Lions on the shirt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=899FawCx_gw


(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 2519
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/31/2020 7:12:56 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2005
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible? Let me see what I can do to buttress Canoerebel's optimism.

Look, in Korea, although there are fears of a second round, we've been dropping about 200 cases a day (there are about 100 new ones and about 300 get well). I look outside from my office window and there are plenty of people out and about. We've still had zero government-mandated closures, although on a voluntary basis there are no concerts and cinemas are closed. Almost all churches have virtual services and shops have always had an adequate supply of tree-based products. The one thing being rationed is masks.

What seems to work? Well, about 95% of the people here wear masks in public. Our government has seen fit to allocate two masks per person per week, so that's 100 million a week at $1.25 each (KF94 for adults and KF80 for kids, if anyone cares). That's a lot of masks, but what's keeping 600,000,000 masks a week from being available in the U.S.? Not top-quality 3M N95 ones, but regular ones the general public can wear?

Another thing that seems to help a lot is very extensive contact tracing, by means of phone location, credit card usage, CCTVs, etc. The government will send an alert to your phone if someone nearby has the virus (maybe within 1/2 km), with details of when and where they've been since they returned to the country or since they were likely to have picked it up from someone in country. The government also has the manpower to individually contact everyone suspected of personally being in contact with each virus carrier. I think this system has given the general populace the confidence to go to work, go shopping and go out drinking and eating. People have some concept of the actual risks. Is Korea's contact tracing program a draconian loss of liberty? Well, you might argue the forced closure of business is worse. To me, it's a grey area.

Other things like testing have been well discussed. Today, I see an opportunity for the copious availability of masks and thorough contact tracing to make a difference in certain places.

Anyway, good luck and know that this thing is quite beatable.

Cheers,
CB



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Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
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