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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:00:36 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Coronavirus updates: Navy hospital ship reaches COVID-19 epicenter New York
March 30, 2020

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-latest-news-2020-03-30/


"More than 143,500 people have tested positive in the U.S. — almost a fifth of the roughly 740,000 cases worldwide. Doctors and nurses in New York, the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, continue to face shortages of vital protective equipment and ICU beds. To help ease the burden on New York's beleaguered health care facilities, the U.S. Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort docked at New York Harbor Monday with 1,000 more beds.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has warned the disease is spreading "like fire through dry grass" at senior care facilities across the country."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/30/2020 3:44:20 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:10:17 PM   
Zorch

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

A machete is especially effective.


Machete, lots of history and styles for such a simple tool/weapon

https://www.machetespecialists.com/products/machetes/

The Gurkhas have the Kukri knife. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kukri

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Post #: 2462
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:16:03 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

A machete is especially effective.


Machete, lots of history and styles for such a simple tool/weapon

https://www.machetespecialists.com/products/machetes/

The Gurkhas have the Kukri knife. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kukri


Very Macedonian/Greek.

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Post #: 2463
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:20:46 PM   
MakeeLearn


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US coronavirus cases top 139,000 as Trump extends social distancing guidelines until April 30
Updated 10:51 PM ET, Sun March 29, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/health/us-coronavirus-wrap-sunday/index.html

"US has the most cases worldwide

Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a key member of the White House coronavirus task force, said on CNN's "State of the Union" that, based on modeling, 100,000 or more could die from the coronavirus in the United States.
Fauci reiterated that comment in that evening's White House briefing, telling reporters, "What we're trying to do is not to let that happen."

The United States surpassed China and Italy this week, becoming the country with the most confirmed cases worldwide. And the growing number of cases has also revealed new demographics facing severe illness.

Cases of young adults developing severe illnesses have been more widely reported, but children were thought to be avoiding the harshest effects.

On Saturday, state officials reported the death of an infant under age 1 who tested positive for coronavirus and is believed to be the youngest person to die of the virus in the United States.
An investigation is underway to determine the cause of death, the Illinois Department of Public Health said. "

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Post #: 2464
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:28:48 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled
We as a family now eat about 1/2 as much meat as we used to, and make stews/curries/bolognese type dishes with lentils and meats.


Aye. Ours too. That's great. But it's a far cry from 'diversify your diet' to 'meat=murder' and 'big=bad'. Unfortunately, the militant vegan screed preys on an uncertain public to opportunistically promote their drivel.

They are seizing the moment, and others are as well.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

Climate change? Yeah throw that in there right now. Revolution? Give me a break.

Increasing evidence to the contrary, only emotion and personal attacks on the unholy. The dark side of human nature.

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Post #: 2465
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:30:28 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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The observation about the supermarket is funny and true. I was looking for frozen pizzas and burritos but the only thing left was frozen vegetarian crap like "Organic vegetarian lasagna with compressed and formed dehydrated zucchini noodles. GMO free! Gluten free!" The entire section was untouched.

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Post #: 2466
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:41:52 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
Yes, you need the Army but they need to BRING something with them to eat. That is skirting close to a breakdown in social order. If the infrastructure still works the UN brings in bakeries (like they did in Sarjevo).


I just read the news, and the government is doing just that: 400 millions Euro are being set aside to provide food for families everywhere. They devised a scheme that gives more money to the needy (basically, if your family income is lower that the national average you get more money for food).

I can't comment on the numbers. My feeling is that 400 millions Euro is too little - but it is a step in the right direction.

And I still wonder what this will mean for illegal workers. Can they honestly say that they are maintaining a family with - officially - zero or close to zero income?


At least it is a start. Once they get a better idea of how much is needed, then they can provide more money.

As far as the illegal workers go, maybe they will have to start being legal. Maybe going through a temporary agency to get a record of the earnings. Of course, the criminal element will still be criminal. I read about that community north of Naples where the African immigrants are.

This whole economic mess has been building for decades because of two global factors:
1. The global population has been growing at an accelerating rate with more people living longer. That in itself is an economic demand on food/clothing/shelter and services like health care.

2. Economic disparity has been growing exponentially as a few powerful people concentrated more and more wealth in their hands while wiping out the median income middle class. This is NOT a cry for socialism - it is an observation that these people broke the capitalist system envisage by Locke and Adams and Smith.

The concept originally was for small, local businesses to compete with one another in a fair market for the ultimate benefit of the people. When the millionaires of last century decided they should be billionaires, they used their power to wipe out competing business by throttling the supply chain (demanding suppliers only deal with the big business or else) and buying up any small business that had innovative ideas (Microsoft did this extensively). And of course, they used political influence to ensure that the anti-trust laws were weak or not enforced.

So now we have a world disaster that requires financial resilience everywhere and it doesn't exist because the very rich hold the money that is needed and governments have to hope they can borrow from them. The masses have fewer financial reserves than they should because their well paying jobs have been eliminated and most are paid just enough to get by. This means greater dependence on the government which cannot handle the demands.

So what's next? What always happens when the masses cannot have their needs met - revolution by violent means, throwing out the old system, including parts of it that were working well. In Italy's example, the Mafia could take over the role of the government. Some would argue that organized crime might do that in other western countries as well. And Russia is waiting for opportunities, but might find itself busy holding down their own long-suffering peoples.

China? It has found stability in a capitalist economy by using cheap labour and adaptability to make wealthy nations dependent on it. The sudden downsize of the world economy is hurting them but they will get by for now. But if every country gets protectionist and cuts off dealing with China, we can expect all manner of troubles.

So I agree with RFalvo69 that handling this economic disaster as a worldwide wake-up call for getting away from the alligators and then draining the swamp to get a more equitable and resilient economy is crucial. And BTW, dealing with climate change might be a necessary part of that realignment of human effort. There is much work to be done, so there is money to be made and spent!

On your points 1 and 2:

1. The global population is growing at a greatly decelerating rate. It has been found conclusively that as a country's standard of living increases its birth rate decreases. The very large improvements in people's standard's of living around the world has dissolved the specter of global overpopulation as projections show the world's population leveling off far below what is believed to be the planet's carrying capacity.

2. The number of people around the world who live below the poverty line has vastly decreased in recent decades. That is according to the UN. Continuing progress has been evident and not slowed down. The current economic effects of the pandemic obviously are up in the air.

Economic disparity has not been growing exponentially. If you are referring to the presence of billionaires among us, the truth has always been that some humans have more than others. Governments/economies such as communism, etc have always had the very same and merely pretended otherwise, their real characteristic being that they oppress and economically hold down the vast majority of people. They do not limit or eliminate economic disparity, but they do hold down nearly everybody economically. That's not better.

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Post #: 2467
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:42:05 PM   
Canoerebel


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When Italy really, truly turns the corner - when there's no doubt left - we can all rejoice. At that point, whenever it happens, we can use the famous quote from the Battle of Guadalcanal: "It's not the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning."

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:42:26 PM   
MakeeLearn


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One chart shows New York City's Coronavirus cases, deaths, and hospitalizations by age bracket as the city's cases near 30,000
Mar 28, 2020, 8:10 PM

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases-deaths-hospitalizations-by-age-chart-2020-3


"New York City has reported more than 25% of the US's coronavirus cases.

Nearly 30,000 people there have been infected (though that's only those who have been tested), and at least 517 people across New York's five boroughs have died — accounting for about one-quarter of all US COVID-19 deaths. The city reported its first case on March 1."





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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:46:39 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Back to the topic at hand:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk


ETA: The article also does a very nice job in distinguishing between the "Case Fatality Rate" and the "Infection Fatality Rate". Very often (and the author cites a particularly craptastic piece of journalism by the New York Times) the media misstates what they're looking for and misapplies the terms.


A good read and although I wasn't clear on the precise use of terms before, I get them now, and realise most reports I've read use the two ideas whether they use the terms or not.

I just read the referenced NY Times article, which I'read a the time as well. I found the graph showing fatality rates useful as it distinguished between many known diseases in their transmission capability vs fatality rate. As far as I could tell the article steers clear of BOTH terms, probably so as not to confuse the general reader while still getting across that main piece of knowledge at the time, which is that this Coronavirus is more lethal than the flu and they show a range in the graph below.

At the bottom of the graph the term Case Fatality Rate is used with a disclaimer that these numbers "vary" and that the Covid numbers were preliminary, which seemed exactly what the writer of the outworldindata piece was trying to assert.

So I can't figure out what is wrong with trying to provide some early estimates and comparisons to more known diseases while cautioning that it was still too early to tell for sure. Seemed pretty responsible to me.

There is a lot of incomplete, irresponsible journalism out there but I don't find this NY Times article to fall in that category.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/30/2020 3:55:52 PM >


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Post #: 2470
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:54:01 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last year, I re-read Stephen King's The Stand. It's a terrific novel about a bio-weapon escape that kills most of humanity. The few survivors begin having dreams.

Last week, there were reports in the news of people having dreams!


I did a double take when reading this. For the last two nights-I'm not making this up-I've had exceptionally vivid, graphic and disturbing dreams. I've had them from episodically over the years and wholly ascribe them to 'stress', just like anybody else who might be undergoing a stressful period. I'm sure that my dreams are no worse than combat survivors with PTSD or some other traumatic experience. And I'm certain that they're not some sort of 'sign' or call to action like they are in The Stand. But still...

How's everybody sleeping? I'm particularly interested in how the 'essential worker' cohort on this forum has been getting on (Cap?).


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

We are all (or at least the large majority) human and our brains have had 100-200K years to get ready for danger..and our hominid brethren before that..and their simian brethren before them. This is the most fearful time of my lifetime. Surgeries..spinning a sports car in the rain..rock climbing..getting pounded by a big-ass wave and wondering if you are going to make it to the surface..threat of getting nuked by the Russians..sliding on an icy mountain road in a bus...earthquakes..getting challenged by cholos with guns. Most of those things were at least partly fun. This is different. I think it is the sinister invisibility of the damn thing. I too am having very vivid, long lasting and exquisitely detailed anxiety dreams. Our daytime thoughts are priming our brains to be more alert at night in order to arouse when the leopard is sneaking up on us. I tried alcohol. It doesn't work. I think what works best is hard physical exercise or yard work until everything hurts. A machete is especially effective. No caffeine after noon either.


Bought a new mattress. Yesterday hiked more than 5 hours, large elevation gain, 30 pound backpack. I slept great.

Just trying to remain realistic on this disease itself; being diligent (but not nutty) about avoiding getting it; being even more diligent about not somehow giving it to loved ones, especially those in their later years (up to 87); trying to help those around me remain grounded; realize that the economic consequences are unknown to the point they are in a fog bank so don't worry just watch...

And I have TP.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:55:42 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When Italy really, truly turns the corner - when there's no doubt left - we can all rejoice. At that point, whenever it happens, we can use the famous quote from the Battle of Guadalcanal: "It's not the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning."


Dan, I do believe that is a Churchill quote.........although I do believe this is the end of the beginning


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Post #: 2472
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:59:02 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When Italy really, truly turns the corner - when there's no doubt left - we can all rejoice. At that point, whenever it happens, we can use the famous quote from the Battle of Guadalcanal: "It's not the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning."


Dan, I do believe that is a Churchill quote.........although I do believe this is the end of the beginning



After El Alamein

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Henceforth Hitler's Nazis will meet equally well armed, and perhaps better armed troops. Hence forth they will have to face in many theatres of war that superiority in the air which they have so often used without mercy against other, of which they boasted all round the world, and which they intended to use as an instrument for convincing all other peoples that all resistance to them was hopeless....


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Post #: 2473
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:00:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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You're right, John: Today, the Guadalcanal campaign is memorable for two reasons. First, it was the closest the U.S. came to losing the war in the Pacific, but second, its victory put America on the offensive against Japan for the rest of the war. It was, as Winston Churchill said, “not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/08/battle-guadalcanal-end-beginning/

I've always thought the quote specifically applied to Guadalcanal, though the source/quote above doesn't make that absolutely clear.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:06:05 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right, John: Today, the Guadalcanal campaign is memorable for two reasons. First, it was the closest the U.S. came to losing the war in the Pacific, but second, its victory put America on the offensive against Japan for the rest of the war. It was, as Winston Churchill said, “not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/08/battle-guadalcanal-end-beginning/

I've always thought the quote specifically applied to Guadalcanal, though the source/quote above doesn't make that absolutely clear.


Its from November 42.

Audio is here https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1941-1945-war-leader/alamein-the-end-of-the-beginning/

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Post #: 2475
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:12:31 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right, John: Today, the Guadalcanal campaign is memorable for two reasons. First, it was the closest the U.S. came to losing the war in the Pacific, but second, its victory put America on the offensive against Japan for the rest of the war. It was, as Winston Churchill said, “not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/08/battle-guadalcanal-end-beginning/

I've always thought the quote specifically applied to Guadalcanal, though the source/quote above doesn't make that absolutely clear.


Guadalcanal quote:

“G*dd**n it, you’ll never get the Purple Heart hiding in a foxhole! Follow me!”
USMC Capt. Henry Pierson Crowe

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/30/2020 4:14:09 PM >


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Post #: 2476
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:22:07 PM   
MakeeLearn


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French Official Says Quarantine Should Not be Enforced in Migrant Areas to Avoid Riots
27 March, 2020

https://summit.news/2020/03/27/french-official-says-quarantine-should-not-be-enforced-in-migrant-areas-to-avoid-riots/


"A top government official in France has admitted that draconian lockdown measures being imposed on the rest of the population shouldn’t be implemented in the country’s migrant-heavy ghettos in order to prevent riots.

In a letter leaked to magazine Le Canard Enchaine, French Secretary of State to the Ministry of the Interior Laurent Nunez advises, “It is not a priority to enforce closings in certain neighborhoods and to stop gatherings.”"

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:43:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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Mixed news from Italy. On the good side, no spike in cases or deaths. Even better, a sharp drop in New Cases. On the bad side, mortality remains stubbornly high.




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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:02:54 PM   
obvert


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An encouraging sign that US testing is nearing a million. If the US continues to test at this rate it could be so useful as a large benchmark similar to South Korea early and Germany in the middle of this outbreak.

Canada and Norway are doing a bang up job on testing, as are Australia and Germany of course still.

In all of these countries the positives/1000 are also much less than places like Italy and NY state, and it makes me think they're getting a more accurate picture of how many cases might be in the population.





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< Message edited by obvert -- 3/30/2020 5:46:55 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:21:05 PM   
alanschu

 

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Wife is feeling ill (cough, aches, runny nose) and she called health service early in the morning. They feel that it's probably not Covid, but have asked us to isolate for 10 days as a precaution.

Primarily only affects her (she still had to go to work, now is not), but will mean we don't do any provision runs (we should be okay though).

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/30/2020 5:22:09 PM >

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Post #: 2480
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:34:27 PM   
RangerJoe


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Went to a Target store to buy something. Not very bust but some people were there. The person in charge of the tellers was sanitizing the handles of the shopping carts - properly, that is, making sure that the part where the fingers wrap around was also sanitized.

When I left the apartment building today, a maintenance man working for the landlord said "Stay 6 feet away **^*%*@ucker, social distancing . . . " With that language, we almost got a lot closer . . .

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:36:10 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Back to the topic at hand:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk


ETA: The article also does a very nice job in distinguishing between the "Case Fatality Rate" and the "Infection Fatality Rate". Very often (and the author cites a particularly craptastic piece of journalism by the New York Times) the media misstates what they're looking for and misapplies the terms.


A good read and although I wasn't clear on the precise use of terms before, I get them now, and realise most reports I've read use the two ideas whether they use the terms or not.

I just read the referenced NY Times article, which I'read a the time as well. I found the graph showing fatality rates useful as it distinguished between many known diseases in their transmission capability vs fatality rate. As far as I could tell the article steers clear of BOTH terms, probably so as not to confuse the general reader while still getting across that main piece of knowledge at the time, which is that this Coronavirus is more lethal than the flu and they show a range in the graph below.

At the bottom of the graph the term Case Fatality Rate is used with a disclaimer that these numbers "vary" and that the Covid numbers were preliminary, which seemed exactly what the writer of the outworldindata piece was trying to assert.

So I can't figure out what is wrong with trying to provide some early estimates and comparisons to more known diseases while cautioning that it was still too early to tell for sure. Seemed pretty responsible to me.

There is a lot of incomplete, irresponsible journalism out there but I don't find this NY Times article to fall in that category.



On the limited example you've provided, they've clearly mislabeled the chart. The IFR/CFR for 2009 flu was not "0". Technically, neither is Chickenpox. So there's that.

By having a poorly defined concept of 'fatality rate' (what's that defined as for this chart-there's no subtext?) on a logarithmic chart-that most people don't understand well-they could very well be overstating the likelihood of worst outcomes by a factor of 20. Intentionally misleading? Probably not. But they could have done a better job at conveying probable outcomes.

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Post #: 2482
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:48:48 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He was referring to cases in general, not mortality.


Ah - a mid-April peak on number of new cases roughly tracks with everything else I've seen.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Looking at this again, the irrationality of the numbers we're getting from the media and the experts seems apparent.

Most of them are estimating infection rates of 50% to 70% in the US. That means about 170,000,000 to 238,000,000 should be infected. Using the "standard" (nearly universally accepted) mortality rate of 1% yields and expected death toll of 1,750,000 to 2,380,000.

Since those totals are 10x or more what the experts are now floating, there's something wrong. Either the 50% to 70% is way off or the mortality rate is way off. If it's the latter, and if Dr. Fauci is right at 100k to 200k mortality, that means the mortality rate is something like 0.1% or less, which is the same or less than seasonal flu.

So if it isn't the mortality rate that's off, its the infection rate. Instead of 50% or 70% of the nation being infected it would be more like 5%! (5% of 340,000,000 x 1% yields 170k, a figure within Dr. Fauci's range).

Or it could be that both numbers are off considerably.

Not matter what, the numbers don't add up. They never add up. The media and the experts are so focused on working with numbers that they torture them and don't realize the outcomes contradict each other. Either we're going to have a lot less infected than they're predicting or the mortality rate is going to be much less than 1%....or both. My bet is the latter.



I think part of this is that the mortality rate is only among symptomatic cases. I don't think the 50% to 70% exposure/infection rate when this is all over (months/years from now) is at all unlikely or unreasonable if the R0 (number of people it spreads to for each infected person) on this is in the 2.5 - 3.1 range (the flu is usually around 1.3 or so). Right now, social distancing and quarantine measures will depress that R0, but unless we're able to quarantine and eradicate every instance of the virus, it's going to spread among the general population eventually.

Given that there are widespread reports of asymptomatic cases (which may not be contagious) as well as cases with very mild symptoms that would be indistinguishable from a common cold, it's easy to see how the eventual overall infection rate could be half or more of the population.

For all I know, I could have it right now but be asymptomatic and I would never know. And if my partner were also to be asymptomatic, nobody would ever know. Unless/until we got tested for antibodies.

FWIW, it looks like Italy is going to reach their death rate peak in about a week.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last year, I re-read Stephen King's The Stand. It's a terrific novel about a bio-weapon escape that kills most of humanity. The few survivors begin having dreams.

Last week, there were reports in the news of people having dreams! Zoiks, thinks I!

Anyhow, The Stand is a great read but might be too rattling right now.

THere was also a miniseries starring Molly Ringwald and Gary Sinese. I don't know if it is any good, as I've never seen it. But it's apparently available on YouTube, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e64sPHWnsY

I might watch it, but I definitely won't encourage my wife to.


One of my favorites. Although I did not care for the miniseries all that much. Flagg was great, and Sinise was alright, but I didn't feel like it really captured the energy of the novel all that well.

When this first started happening about a month or two ago, I jokingly told my board that everybody should read it while they were isolating themselves.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It's doubtful that I'll have time tomorrow during work hours (and after that I'm going outside), but if we can agree on a source to use (Johns Hopkins?), I can put these into Excel for daily visualization.


This source, as well as these below, have been my daily stalwarts:

covidtracking.com/data/ (which has the state by state data in 'data as a spreadsheet') and

worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (for the global picture)




Cool - the state by state one wasn't one that I was aware of yet. The CDC has a page but I haven't had time to fully explore its functionality.

I'll try to start on a spreadsheet today.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If your dreams involve "Mother Abigail" sitting on the front porch of an old ramshackle house set in a Nebraska cornfield, you're one of the good guys. If, on the other hand, the subject is "The Walking Dude" aka Randall Flagg, go to church immediately with sincerity and purity of heart and stop dreaming about naked Buddy Hacketts.

P.S. I dream a lot. Usually nightmares that I'm still a lawyer (seriously). But my dreams are no more or less frequent.


A reasonable fear.

Same. After my bout with insomnia in 2007ish, my body seems to have altered the way I sleep. I now basically only have REM sleep and am able to get right back into it if I'm awakened, as long as I haven't been awake for too long (more than 15 minutes or so). It's great for continuing whatever dream I was having. Additional bonus is that I seem to only require ~6.75 hours of sleep this way as my REM cycles appear to be about 3 hours each. I started keeping a daily sleep log 627 days ago.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Back to the topic at hand:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk

Really good discussion of issues impacting CFR. Many of these have been bandied about here, but this is a well-written and concise article. Highly recommended to check out the 'slider' on the lower right corner of the page that compares different regional / national CFRs over time.

ETA: The graph at the bottom right of the page with the slider is actually reflective of the "Infection Fatality Rate" rather than the Case Fatality Rate so misused in the media. I'm more interested in the IFR as it reflects what most people are interested in: "If I get this, what are the odds that it will make me sick enough to die?" The Case Fatality Rate includes nebulous factors such as willingness to go to hospital, quality of medical care locally, what one's definition of a 'case' is and so forth.

I think a salient point the authors made was that as the number of positive tests increase exponentially, if deaths only increase linearly then that drops the CFR. In other words, more testing = more 'ground truth' for what this virus really means for a given population. Since the bodies are harder to hide (except in China apparently), if you want to drop the CFR, find more positive people in your burgeoning testing program. Those that only preferentially test the sickest hospital admissions cases will artificially elevate their CFR.

ETA: The article also does a very nice job in distinguishing between the "Case Fatality Rate" and the "Infection Fatality Rate". Very often (and the author cites a particularly craptastic piece of journalism by the New York Times) the media misstates what they're looking for and misapplies the terms.


+10 for this succinct and helpful clarification of what we're talking about.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right, John: Today, the Guadalcanal campaign is memorable for two reasons. First, it was the closest the U.S. came to losing the war in the Pacific, but second, its victory put America on the offensive against Japan for the rest of the war. It was, as Winston Churchill said, “not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/08/battle-guadalcanal-end-beginning/

I've always thought the quote specifically applied to Guadalcanal, though the source/quote above doesn't make that absolutely clear.


Churchill is good for a good quote, but IMO he's incorrect here. The end of the beginning was June 4-5, 1942. Guadalcanal was the beginning of something else - not the end, but the middle act of the war for sure. Without going too much off topic, I'd place the beginning of the end at the Tarawa/Makin invasion with the first "combat trial" of the combined arms amphibious tactics that would be used for the rest of the war.

I think Ian Toll's book, Pacific Crucible, would be a fairly good read for anyone who's curious about why the end of the beginning would properly be placed at the Battle of Midway.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2483
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:51:55 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Virus–virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold
December 26, 2019 116 (52) 27142-27150; first published December 16, 2019

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/27142


A study in Scotland, from 2005 to 2013, where they did mass tests on the various forms of winter virus that cause the flu, and found that 7-15% of flu cases are caused by Coronaviruses. At least that was the case in Glasgow from 2005 to 2013.




"Our study provides strong statistical support for the existence of interactions among genetically broad groups of respiratory viruses at both population and individual host scales.

Our findings imply that the incidence of influenza infections is interlinked with the incidence of noninfluenza viral infections with implications for the improved design of disease forecasting models and the evaluation of disease control interventions.

Future experimental studies are required to decipher the biological mechanisms that underpin virus–virus interactions and their effects on the within-host dynamics of infection."






< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/30/2020 5:53:56 PM >


_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2484
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:54:26 PM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14185
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline

This latest assessment of the Covid-19 best strategies in the US comes from the American Medical Association:

The Allergists were in favor of scratching it, but the Dermatologists advised not to make any rash moves.
The Gastroenterologists had sort of a gut feeling about it, but the Neurologists thought the Administration had a lot of nerve.

Meanwhile, Obstetricians felt certain everyone was laboring under a misconception, while the Ophthalmologists considered the idea shortsighted.

Pathologists yelled, "Over my dead body!" while the Pediatricians said, "Oh, grow up!”

The Psychiatrists thought the whole idea was madness, while the Radiologists could see right through it.

Surgeons decided to wash their hands of the whole thing and the Internists claimed it would indeed be a bitter pill to swallow.

The Plastic Surgeons opined that this proposal would "put a whole new face on the matter.”

The Podiatrists thought it was a step forward, but the Urologists were pissed off at the whole idea.

Anesthesiologists thought the whole idea was a gas, and those lofty Cardiologists didn’t have the heart to say no.

In the end, the Proctologists won out, leaving the strategy to the assholes in Washington.



_____________________________

Currently fighting for the Emperor against AW1Steve. As of 5/20 it is 10/44.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 2485
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:56:50 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24986
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
And, because some of them were catty, nobody listened to the dogged optimism of the Veterinarians.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 3/30/2020 5:57:14 PM >


_____________________________


(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 2486
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:01:45 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24691
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

And, because some of them were catty, nobody listened to the dogged optimism of the Veterinarians.

Chicken Littles!

Go Chickenboy!

_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2487
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:04:48 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41726
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right, John: Today, the Guadalcanal campaign is memorable for two reasons. First, it was the closest the U.S. came to losing the war in the Pacific, but second, its victory put America on the offensive against Japan for the rest of the war. It was, as Winston Churchill said, “not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2017/08/battle-guadalcanal-end-beginning/

I've always thought the quote specifically applied to Guadalcanal, though the source/quote above doesn't make that absolutely clear.
warspite1

I've always understood this wonderful line referred to El-Alamein.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2488
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:05:03 PM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert


...

In the end, the Proctologists won out, leaving the strategy to the assholes in Washington.




gorgious!

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 2489
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:08:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
OT: For the past ten years, I've taught an adult Sunday school class at my li'l ol' country church. On occasion, I'll draw quotes from Churchill, Twain, Franklin, and the Book of Proverbs. I'll mix 'em up and invite the class to guess the author, as I read through them. It's always fun.

General William T. Sherman, the Yankee juggernaut, was another quote machine.

(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 2490
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