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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:07:42 AM   
Canoerebel


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Then Finland should have roughly 30k cases (1218 confirmed x 25). Mortality lags behind onset by a week or two, but given 30k cases, the expected mortality (in a week or two) will be 300. Right now, Finland has had 11. (Those are comparatively small numbers, so probably far more prone to wild fluctuations than bigger, more mature outbreaks.)

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Post #: 2431
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:24:53 AM   
Canoerebel


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Last year, I re-read Stephen King's The Stand. It's a terrific novel about a bio-weapon escape that kills most of humanity. The few survivors begin having dreams.

Last week, there were reports in the news of people having dreams! Zoiks, thinks I!

Anyhow, The Stand is a great read but might be too rattling right now.

THere was also a miniseries starring Molly Ringwald and Gary Sinese. I don't know if it is any good, as I've never seen it. But it's apparently available on YouTube, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e64sPHWnsY

I might watch it, but I definitely won't encourage my wife to.

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Post #: 2432
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 6:48:10 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1880
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A better example. Double a penny every day and in 20 days you have a few dollars. In 30 days you have something like 11 million dollars.

I understand exponents.

I do not understand the correlation between the numbers being reported and 100k or 200k in the USA.

How do we get from Governor Cuomo's peak "the second week of April" to a six month cataclysm? I know he's talking about New York, but still. Cities in California and Washington have dealt with it longer and didn't explode.

And with all the increases coming in hospital beds and ventilators, ideas for treatments and skill at treating, we're not gonna get on top of this?

I don't see it.




Hi Dan,

So these are numbers I have floating around on my scratchpad. You can play with them in many different scenarios; this is just what I'm looking at and thinking...

US Population roughly 329.34 million

Total Cases = 142,178
Total Deaths = 2,484 <-- these are part of the 142k above

Say there are 20 cases that go unreported for every case (A total WAG):

142,178 x 20 = 2,843,560

Let's say only 1/2 of the population gets the virus (Just a WAG) - that's about 165 million people.

Let's round up 2,843,560 to 3 million (this is 20x the total cases plus the original 142,178 cases detected. )

165 / 3 = 55

So three million goes into 1/2 of our 329.34 population roughly 55 times

So let's multiply the current deaths by 55

2,484 x 55 = 136,620 deaths if the virus goes through 1/2 of the US population…









This is a good website for tracking this

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Post #: 2433
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 7:39:44 AM   
Ian R

 

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Anybody else getting this message:



< Message edited by Ian R -- 3/30/2020 7:43:05 AM >


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Ian R

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Post #: 2434
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:34:02 AM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 706
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
As far as the illegal workers go, maybe they will have to start being legal. Maybe going through a temporary agency to get a record of the earnings. Of course, the criminal element will still be criminal. I read about that community north of Naples where the African immigrants are.

Premise: I'm against illegal work, and all my employees are registered. Having say that, the problem, in Italy, is more complex than a "get legal" answer.

First and foremost, those offering illegal work often offer only illegal work. If you disagree they will not employ you again - and good luck in finding a new job in Italy ("former") current market. Also, employers who follow this practice are more competitive - until the "Guardia di Finanza", the Financial Crimes Unit) - sniffs something funny and discovers what you are doing. This, however, doesn't happen often enough.

Second, with illegal work you renounce long term benefices for a bigger income up stat. I'll give you an example I saw with my eyes. John Doe is a guy who runs a XY service in my zone. He offers both legal and illegal work - your choice. With legal work you get 6 Euro/hour, pension, UHC and other benefits. With illegal work you get 12 Euro/hour and good luck to you (you don't pay taxes, but you can access services ranging from UHS to unemployment checks). Most people choose illegal work. This is sadly true for the rest of Italy, but in the South the problem is more marked.

Now, to return in topic, while I fully agree that the practice of illegal work must be fought, the stark reality of the current situation is that a lot of people are jobless and with nothing in their pockets. This breeds desperation. Remember: we are not talking about small numbers: a whole strata of the Italian population is in this situation right now.

I can only look from the window. Back when this emergency started, a guy in our government (I don't even remember his party) said that "We should help not only legal workers but illegal ones too" He was, of course, crucified. I didn't really pay attention back then, but now I wonder if he had a point: accept (during the viral emergency) the lesser evil to avoid the bigger one (revolts for food and droves of people looking at criminal organizations for help).

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Post #: 2435
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 8:52:35 AM   
Cap Mandrake


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I think it is quite likely that Germany's lower mortality numbers are due to more efficient and comprehensive testing. This tends to discover the "less sick" individuals. Also, their population skews younger than some other European countries and I suspect there are fewer smokers. In other words, Germany's numbers probably represent the true mortality in a technologically advanced country not at over-capacity.

The only way to discover the true prevalence at this time would be a careful randomized screening of the population in one area taking all ages with or without symptoms. This study is not practical due to logistical difficulties and even risk.

As for US numbers, the virus is clearly not equally present (yet). Some areas are just ramping up...NY, NJ are right in heat of it.

It is also interesting to see what FEMA is doing in areas not yet completely saturated. The come in to a hospital with space capacity and build out a negative pressure, 20 bed, Covid dedicated ICU by installing a big air-lock with plastic doors and powerful HEPA filters and pumps. I suspect they bring vents with them as well.

(in reply to Sardaukar)
Post #: 2436
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 9:03:41 AM   
Uncivil Engineer

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Looking at this again, the irrationality of the numbers we're getting from the media and the experts seems apparent.

Most of them are estimating infection rates of 50% to 70% in the US.
The Diamond Princess petri dish would indicate an infection rate of 17-20%, way, way lower than 50-70% - where did those numbers come from?
That means about 170,000,000 to 238,000,000 should be infected. Using the "standard" (nearly universally accepted) mortality rate of 1% yields and expected death toll of 1,750,000 to 2,380,000.

Since those totals are 10x or more what the experts are now floating, there's something wrong. Either the 50% to 70% is way off or the mortality rate is way off. If it's the latter, and if Dr. Fauci is right at 100k to 200k mortality, that means the mortality rate is something like 0.1% or less, which is the same or less than seasonal flu.

So if it isn't the mortality rate that's off, its the infection rate. Instead of 50% or 70% of the nation being infected it would be more like 5%! (5% of 340,000,000 x 1% yields 170k, a figure within Dr. Fauci's range).

Or it could be that both numbers are off considerably.

Not matter what, the numbers don't add up. They never add up. The media and the experts are so focused on working with numbers that they torture them and don't realize the outcomes contradict each other. Either we're going to have a lot less infected than they're predicting or the mortality rate is going to be much less than 1%....or both. My bet is the latter.



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2437
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:10:14 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It's doubtful that I'll have time tomorrow during work hours (and after that I'm going outside), but if we can agree on a source to use (Johns Hopkins?), I can put these into Excel for daily visualization.


This source, as well as these below, have been my daily stalwarts:

covidtracking.com/data/ (which has the state by state data in 'data as a spreadsheet') and

worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (for the global picture)



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Post #: 2438
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:18:56 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last year, I re-read Stephen King's The Stand. It's a terrific novel about a bio-weapon escape that kills most of humanity. The few survivors begin having dreams.

Last week, there were reports in the news of people having dreams!


I did a double take when reading this. For the last two nights-I'm not making this up-I've had exceptionally vivid, graphic and disturbing dreams. I've had them from episodically over the years and wholly ascribe them to 'stress', just like anybody else who might be undergoing a stressful period. I'm sure that my dreams are no worse than combat survivors with PTSD or some other traumatic experience. And I'm certain that they're not some sort of 'sign' or call to action like they are in The Stand. But still...

How's everybody sleeping? I'm particularly interested in how the 'essential worker' cohort on this forum has been getting on (Cap?).

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Post #: 2439
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:20:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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Chickenboy, have your dreams involved unclad Ingrid Bergman, Shelly Winters, or Buddy Hackett?

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Post #: 2440
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:21:58 PM   
Canoerebel


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In reply to Uncivil Engineer: The 50% to 70% infection rate has been widely quoted by multiple sources many times. Keep a lookout and you'll see it. Angela Merkel has Germany pegged at 80%.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/30/2020 12:24:10 PM >

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Post #: 2441
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:25:02 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Chickenboy, have your dreams involved unclad Ingrid Bergman, Shelly Winters, or Buddy Hackett?


I wish! I'd even take Buddy Hackett over some of them!

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Post #: 2442
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:26:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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Post #: 2443
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:28:42 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: online
If your dreams involve "Mother Abigail" sitting on the front porch of an old ramshackle house set in a Nebraska cornfield, you're one of the good guys. If, on the other hand, the subject is "The Walking Dude" aka Randall Flagg, go to church immediately with sincerity and purity of heart and stop dreaming about naked Buddy Hacketts.

P.S. I dream a lot. Usually nightmares that I'm still a lawyer (seriously). But my dreams are no more or less frequent.

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Post #: 2444
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:54:08 PM   
HansBolter


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Read The Stand many years ago and still have a copy.

It's King's semi-secular take on the apocalypse as he invokes both God and Satan while ignoring almost everything Biblical.

It's a good read and the movie is a pretty decent adaptation of the book. Have a DVD of the movie and watched it just a couple of weeks ago.

Jamie Sheridan, of Law and Order Criminal Intent plays Randal Flagg, the walking man, aka the Beast.

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Post #: 2445
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 1:21:17 PM   
USSAmerica


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The book was great and I really enjoyed the TV miniseries. Frankly, I'll watch anything that Gary Sinise is in.

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Post #: 2446
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 1:52:50 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1015
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From: Greece
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last year, I re-read Stephen King's The Stand. It's a terrific novel about a bio-weapon escape that kills most of humanity. The few survivors begin having dreams.

Last week, there were reports in the news of people having dreams! Zoiks, thinks I!

Anyhow, The Stand is a great read but might be too rattling right now.

THere was also a miniseries starring Molly Ringwald and Gary Sinese. I don't know if it is any good, as I've never seen it. But it's apparently available on YouTube, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e64sPHWnsY

I might watch it, but I definitely won't encourage my wife to.

Also The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton is relevant, although the virus in the book comes from a fallen satelite.

Edit: The irony is that the satelite falls in a town called Piedmont.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 3/30/2020 1:57:56 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 1:58:33 PM   
Chickenboy


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Back to the topic at hand:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk

Really good discussion of issues impacting CFR. Many of these have been bandied about here, but this is a well-written and concise article. Highly recommended to check out the 'slider' on the lower right corner of the page that compares different regional / national CFRs over time.

ETA: The graph at the bottom right of the page with the slider is actually reflective of the "Infection Fatality Rate" rather than the Case Fatality Rate so misused in the media. I'm more interested in the IFR as it reflects what most people are interested in: "If I get this, what are the odds that it will make me sick enough to die?" The Case Fatality Rate includes nebulous factors such as willingness to go to hospital, quality of medical care locally, what one's definition of a 'case' is and so forth.

I think a salient point the authors made was that as the number of positive tests increase exponentially, if deaths only increase linearly then that drops the CFR. In other words, more testing = more 'ground truth' for what this virus really means for a given population. Since the bodies are harder to hide (except in China apparently), if you want to drop the CFR, find more positive people in your burgeoning testing program. Those that only preferentially test the sickest hospital admissions cases will artificially elevate their CFR.

ETA: The article also does a very nice job in distinguishing between the "Case Fatality Rate" and the "Infection Fatality Rate". Very often (and the author cites a particularly craptastic piece of journalism by the New York Times) the media misstates what they're looking for and misapplies the terms.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 3/30/2020 2:23:38 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:03:11 PM   
JohnDillworth


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NYC's 911 system is running on it's springs but we are holding up. We have had a few cases leaves in ambulances over the last couple of days. We sanitize and deep clean the area and the elevator and move along. EMS is really strained. Essential personal are required to report. Even pregnant EMTs (they usually work in house manning dispatch potions). The refrigerated tractor trails I saw last week are filling up. I'm staying clean and isolated. Good to be busy. This is 2 blocks from where I work: NY Post Bodies on trailers. April is going to be bad. We are going to win

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:05:55 PM   
Canoerebel


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We're pulling for you and NYC, John. Kick its butt!

Chickenboy, thank you for gently steering me back on topic.

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Post #: 2450
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:12:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Chickenboy, thanks for linking that article.

Interestingly it includes a colorful graph of the Case Fatality Ratio in China, showing the gradual decline down to about 1%.

A similar graph posted here a week ago drew some sharp criticism from a Forumite or two. I thought then, and think now, that their criticism was misplaced. The graph provides accurate information. Where context is also provided (as it is in your source and in the source referred to last week) it is not misleading.

I think the complaint was that it might be misperceived as indicating the infection was petering out.

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Post #: 2451
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:13:02 PM   
JohnDillworth


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thanks, my projections are trending down just a bit the last few days. I think the self isolation is starting to show. The raw numbers are higher, but the rate of doubling has slowed just a bit. Hoping for a quick test availability in the next few months. Both my wife and daughter had flu shots, caught the flu in early February, and both tested negative for the flu. Nasty cough for 3 weeks after. Starting to wonder if the Pale Rider has already visited and passed by.

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 3/30/2020 2:34:23 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:25:32 PM   
MakeeLearn


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People must be getting stressed. At work it was:
"Double check the morphine.....Double check the morphine"

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Post #: 2453
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:34:32 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Offensive image deleted.



Mate, I have tried to take your posts in jest for a while.

But really? You don't need to post that stuff.

Be contrarian by all means.

Express your reasoned view for discussion.

But do not discount the prospect that there are people who can track you down through the internet.



Reconnaissance... But seriously,

How can one condemn the Chinese, while we have hunted and trapped the "Coney Island Red Hot" into near extinction. Just so that we can have a gourmet food that makes us giggle from the sexual innuendo.





Attachment (1)

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Post #: 2454
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:44:12 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 2966
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Offensive image deleted.



Mate, I have tried to take your posts in jest for a while.

But really? You don't need to post that stuff.

Be contrarian by all means.

Express your reasoned view for discussion.

But do not discount the prospect that there are people who can track you down through the internet.



Reconnaissance... But seriously,

How can one condemn the Chinese, while we have hunted and trapped the "Coney Island Red Hot" into near extinction. Just so that we can have a gourmet food that makes us giggle from the sexual innuendo.





quote:

How can one condemn the Chinese, while we have hunted and trapped the "Coney Island Red Hot" into near extinction. Just so that we can have a gourmet food that makes us giggle from the sexual innuendo.


Well I will say this. The supermarkets have been really inane. It's calmed down a bit but in the beginning everything was gone except for the "organic" chickens and all that vegan food. I would not be surprised if the humble hot dog makes a comeback

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Post #: 2455
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:46:06 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Elderly woman dies after being smacked for not social distancing: sources

https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/elderly-woman-dies-after-being-shoved-for-not-social-distancing-sources/

"An 86-year-old woman awaiting treatment for bowel blockage at a Brooklyn hospital yesterday died after being punched by a fellow patient — for not engaging in “social distancing” amid the coronavirus, law enforcement sources told The Post on Sunday.

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Post #: 2456
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:46:51 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
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From: Southern California
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We are all (or at least the large majority) human and our brains have had 100-200K years to get ready for danger..and our hominid brethren before that..and their simian brethren before them. This is the most fearful time of my lifetime. Surgeries..spinning a sports car in the rain..rock climbing..getting pounded by a big-ass wave and wondering if you are going to make it to the surface..threat of getting nuked by the Russians..sliding on an icy mountain road in a bus...earthquakes..getting challenged by cholos with guns. Most of those things were at least partly fun. This is different. I think it is the sinister invisibility of the damn thing. I too am having very vivid, long lasting and exquisitely detailed anxiety dreams. Our daytime thoughts are priming our brains to be more alert at night in order to arouse when the leopard is sneaking up on us. I tried alcohol. It doesn't work. I think what works best is hard physical exercise or yard work until everything hurts. A machete is especially effective. No caffeine after noon either.

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Post #: 2457
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:53:47 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth




Well I will say this. The supermarkets have been really inane. It's calmed down a bit but in the beginning everything was gone except for the "organic" chickens and all that vegan food. I would not be surprised if the humble hot dog makes a comeback


I've been very vocal when ever I go shopping. While standing in the checkout line one of the things I say out loud is "What are people going to be like in 2 months.", "I guess we're about to see people for who they really are." Or "Welcome to my world."




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Post #: 2458
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:55:54 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

thanks, my projections are trending down just a bit the last few days. I think the self isolation is starting to show. The raw numbers are higher, but the rate of doubling has slowed just a bit. Hoping for a quick test availability in the next few months. Both my wife and daughter had flu shots, caught the flu in early February, and both tested negative for the flu. Nasty cough for 3 weeks after. Starting to wonder if the Pale Rider has already visited and passed by.


Yes, saw a lot of that in February, especially the first two weeks when we did have a clear upsurge of "influenza-like illness". The thing is the quick nasal swab influenza test has a fair number of false negatives. That is why the CDC recommends not even testing in most cases. A patient with a viral-type lung infection in Early March who looked like she had C-19 turned out to have RSV (Respiratory Syncitial Virus) and her whole family got knocked low by it. Usually we see RSV in early Winter.

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Post #: 2459
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:58:01 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

A machete is especially effective.


Machete, lots of history and styles for such a simple tool/weapon

https://www.machetespecialists.com/products/machetes/

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Post #: 2460
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