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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/29/2020 9:54:22 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5188
Joined: 11/16/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
Yes, you need the Army but they need to BRING something with them to eat. That is skirting close to a breakdown in social order. If the infrastructure still works the UN brings in bakeries (like they did in Sarjevo).


I just read the news, and the government is doing just that: 400 millions Euro are being set aside to provide food for families everywhere. They devised a scheme that gives more money to the needy (basically, if your family income is lower that the national average you get more money for food).

I can't comment on the numbers. My feeling is that 400 millions Euro is too little - but it is a step in the right direction.

And I still wonder what this will mean for illegal workers. Can they honestly say that they are maintaining a family with - officially - zero or close to zero income?


At least it is a start. Once they get a better idea of how much is needed, then they can provide more money.

As far as the illegal workers go, maybe they will have to start being legal. Maybe going through a temporary agency to get a record of the earnings. Of course, the criminal element will still be criminal. I read about that community north of Naples where the African immigrants are.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 2401
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/29/2020 9:57:52 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 706
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
Thomas Schäfer, the finance minister of the German state of Hesse (which includes Frankfurt), took his life. They say that the Coronavirus emergency put a heavy toll on his shoulders.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-sch%C3%A4fer-found-dead/a-52948976

Sad news.


_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 2402
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/29/2020 10:15:57 PM   
Moltrey


Posts: 117
Joined: 4/11/2010
From: Virginia
Status: offline
Well, I haven't kept up with the thread here, but things sure are getting serious, eh? Scary.

I did read the first page and Jeff's comment about Wuhan being the Chinese Army Biochem center seemed perhaps a bit of a reach at first thought; however, after thinking about it some more, I am wondering if wasn't a accidental release.
Have to say it is a bit spooky playing The Division 1&2 and living through this Covid 19 pandemic. The particulars about 19 are odd too like Jeff said. Reminds me of The Division and the kook scientist who combined various old viruses to make a superbug, then released it on Black Friday in NYC. Much worse than this Covid 19, but still spooks you to be sure.

I don't know about you guys, but I am a bit lucky to work in the rail industry, we are still working as we are on the "essential" list.
Nice to have a paycheck. I worry that my company doesn't truly understand how devastating just one of us train crew folks being tested positive would be.
Hope I am wrong and don't have to deal with it, but things are looking truly grim when Dr. Fauci is estimating 100k-200k deaths at this point.

Take those precautions fellas, be safe!

(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 2403
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/29/2020 10:23:27 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5188
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Thomas Schäfer, the finance minister of the German state of Hesse (which includes Frankfurt), took his life. They say that the Coronavirus emergency put a heavy toll on his shoulders.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-sch%C3%A4fer-found-dead/a-52948976

Sad news.


That is sad. Now it leaves a hole for someone to fill. I hope that also sends a message to other politicians that if they are having problems, get help. That goes for everybody else as well.

I have fond memories of Hesse; the people, the food, the scenery, and the bier! But my favorite restaurant was an Italian restaurant.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 2404
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/29/2020 11:39:22 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 14365
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
Yes, you need the Army but they need to BRING something with them to eat. That is skirting close to a breakdown in social order. If the infrastructure still works the UN brings in bakeries (like they did in Sarjevo).


I just read the news, and the government is doing just that: 400 millions Euro are being set aside to provide food for families everywhere. They devised a scheme that gives more money to the needy (basically, if your family income is lower that the national average you get more money for food).

I can't comment on the numbers. My feeling is that 400 millions Euro is too little - but it is a step in the right direction.

And I still wonder what this will mean for illegal workers. Can they honestly say that they are maintaining a family with - officially - zero or close to zero income?


At least it is a start. Once they get a better idea of how much is needed, then they can provide more money.

As far as the illegal workers go, maybe they will have to start being legal. Maybe going through a temporary agency to get a record of the earnings. Of course, the criminal element will still be criminal. I read about that community north of Naples where the African immigrants are.

This whole economic mess has been building for decades because of two global factors:
1. The global population has been growing at an accelerating rate with more people living longer. That in itself is an economic demand on food/clothing/shelter and services like health care.

2. Economic disparity has been growing exponentially as a few powerful people concentrated more and more wealth in their hands while wiping out the median income middle class. This is NOT a cry for socialism - it is an observation that these people broke the capitalist system envisage by Locke and Adams and Smith.

The concept originally was for small, local businesses to compete with one another in a fair market for the ultimate benefit of the people. When the millionaires of last century decided they should be billionaires, they used their power to wipe out competing business by throttling the supply chain (demanding suppliers only deal with the big business or else) and buying up any small business that had innovative ideas (Microsoft did this extensively). And of course, they used political influence to ensure that the anti-trust laws were weak or not enforced.

So now we have a world disaster that requires financial resilience everywhere and it doesn't exist because the very rich hold the money that is needed and governments have to hope they can borrow from them. The masses have fewer financial reserves than they should because their well paying jobs have been eliminated and most are paid just enough to get by. This means greater dependence on the government which cannot handle the demands.

So what's next? What always happens when the masses cannot have their needs met - revolution by violent means, throwing out the old system, including parts of it that were working well. In Italy's example, the Mafia could take over the role of the government. Some would argue that organized crime might do that in other western countries as well. And Russia is waiting for opportunities, but might find itself busy holding down their own long-suffering peoples.

China? It has found stability in a capitalist economy by using cheap labour and adaptability to make wealthy nations dependent on it. The sudden downsize of the world economy is hurting them but they will get by for now. But if every country gets protectionist and cuts off dealing with China, we can expect all manner of troubles.

So I agree with RFalvo69 that handling this economic disaster as a worldwide wake-up call for getting away from the alligators and then draining the swamp to get a more equitable and resilient economy is crucial. And BTW, dealing with climate change might be a necessary part of that realignment of human effort. There is much work to be done, so there is money to be made and spent!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 2405
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 12:08:52 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5188
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
Yes, you need the Army but they need to BRING something with them to eat. That is skirting close to a breakdown in social order. If the infrastructure still works the UN brings in bakeries (like they did in Sarjevo).


I just read the news, and the government is doing just that: 400 millions Euro are being set aside to provide food for families everywhere. They devised a scheme that gives more money to the needy (basically, if your family income is lower that the national average you get more money for food).

I can't comment on the numbers. My feeling is that 400 millions Euro is too little - but it is a step in the right direction.

And I still wonder what this will mean for illegal workers. Can they honestly say that they are maintaining a family with - officially - zero or close to zero income?


At least it is a start. Once they get a better idea of how much is needed, then they can provide more money.

As far as the illegal workers go, maybe they will have to start being legal. Maybe going through a temporary agency to get a record of the earnings. Of course, the criminal element will still be criminal. I read about that community north of Naples where the African immigrants are.

This whole economic mess has been building for decades because of two global factors:
1. The global population has been growing at an accelerating rate with more people living longer. That in itself is an economic demand on food/clothing/shelter and services like health care.

2. Economic disparity has been growing exponentially as a few powerful people concentrated more and more wealth in their hands while wiping out the median income middle class. This is NOT a cry for socialism - it is an observation that these people broke the capitalist system envisage by Locke and Adams and Smith.

The concept originally was for small, local businesses to compete with one another in a fair market for the ultimate benefit of the people. When the millionaires of last century decided they should be billionaires, they used their power to wipe out competing business by throttling the supply chain (demanding suppliers only deal with the big business or else) and buying up any small business that had innovative ideas (Microsoft did this extensively). And of course, they used political influence to ensure that the anti-trust laws were weak or not enforced.

So now we have a world disaster that requires financial resilience everywhere and it doesn't exist because the very rich hold the money that is needed and governments have to hope they can borrow from them. The masses have fewer financial reserves than they should because their well paying jobs have been eliminated and most are paid just enough to get by. This means greater dependence on the government which cannot handle the demands.

So what's next? What always happens when the masses cannot have their needs met - revolution by violent means, throwing out the old system, including parts of it that were working well. In Italy's example, the Mafia could take over the role of the government. Some would argue that organized crime might do that in other western countries as well. And Russia is waiting for opportunities, but might find itself busy holding down their own long-suffering peoples.

China? It has found stability in a capitalist economy by using cheap labour and adaptability to make wealthy nations dependent on it. The sudden downsize of the world economy is hurting them but they will get by for now. But if every country gets protectionist and cuts off dealing with China, we can expect all manner of troubles.

So I agree with RFalvo69 that handling this economic disaster as a worldwide wake-up call for getting away from the alligators and then draining the swamp to get a more equitable and resilient economy is crucial. And BTW, dealing with climate change might be a necessary part of that realignment of human effort. There is much work to be done, so there is money to be made and spent!


Climate change, that is a whole 'nuther topic that I won't get into here.

As far as the size of the businesses, did you ever think that the governments might want fewer but larger businesses since it could be easier to control them? But that may also have been when each country or region was it's own market, not with the global system now. I won't get into anymore here as I don't want to go to far down that path.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 3/30/2020 12:14:14 AM >


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 2406
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 1:24:52 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 712
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
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Climate change? Yeah throw that in there right now. Revolution? Give me a break.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 2407
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 1:41:05 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
We've done a darned good job sticking to the topic, backing away from occasional unnecessary tangential subjects that would create friction and detract from reasoned analysis of this virus outbreak. I hope we can continue.

P.S. I am chief among sinners when it comes to the occasional dust-ups.

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 2408
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 1:53:08 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We've done a darned good job sticking to the topic, backing away from occasional unnecessary tangential subjects that would create friction and detract from reasoned analysis of this virus outbreak. I hope we can continue.

P.S. I am chief among sinners when it comes to the occasional dust-ups.


I picture Atticus Finch in horn-rimmed glasses giving that speech and making everyone feel like lunkheads.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2409
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:20:27 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 21858
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
What a mess.

Well established risk factors for bad outcomes.

Age over 60 worrisome...over 80...red lights flashing
Smoking
Hypertension

Certainly something to worry about, chronic asthma, COPD (almost guaranteed), CHF, diabetes, immunosuppressive drugs, pregnancy, obesity

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2410
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 2:43:44 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9080
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled
We as a family now eat about 1/2 as much meat as we used to, and make stews/curries/bolognese type dishes with lentils and meats.


Aye. Ours too. That's great. But it's a far cry from 'diversify your diet' to 'meat=murder' and 'big=bad'. Unfortunately, the militant vegan screed preys on an uncertain public to opportunistically promote their drivel.


Thankfully, the number of people who are militantly vegan/vegetarian is pretty small. They're just loud, like most extreme position-takers are.


A few pages back, there was speculation of deaths being at or under what the most recent seasonal flu killed (I'm not sure where the person sourced that number but it was ~80K). Dr. Fauci today said 100K to 200K, which he considered a "moderate" estimate.

quote:


Fauci suggested that the 100,000 to 200,000 death range is a moderate estimate, and that the possibility of 1 million or more Americans dying from the coronavirus is “almost certainly off the chart” — that “it’s not impossible, but very, very unlikely.”

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2411
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:33:05 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 14365
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

Climate change? Yeah throw that in there right now. Revolution? Give me a break.

I am not advocating for anything particular. I am just saying that by the time we get the pandemic under control the chaos created will make for huge instability, for the underlying reasons I mentioned. I hope some brilliant leaders can come up with a plan to prevent that, but seeing what they are doing now does not give confidence for cooperation. I just think we need to think beyond our own artificial borders if we want a good outcome sooner.

You don't have to agree with me, I just giving a frame of reference you can use to look at events in subsequent years. If it doesn't work - great! That means things turned out better than I feared!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 2412
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 3:51:19 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
We've tossed around the seasonal flu numbers, usually focusing on around 40k.

The University of Washington came out with an estimate of 80k coronavirus deaths a few days ago.

On Sunday, Dr. Fauci offered a qualified 100k to 200k, noting that there are higher and lower estimates and that he's never seen a case where higher estimates come true. Of course, the press ran with that, AP offering headlines of "200k", followed by quite a few other outlets. Only a couple included the Doctor's qualifying comments. The press is absolutely terrible. Giving a smidgeon of truth but never the whole truth and in the process thereby offering a majestic distortion that bears no resemblance to the truth. General Sherman was absolutely right about the press.

Meantime, a world (and some forumites) are rattled by estimates that are considerably dampened compared to the apocalyptic numbers that were being floated two and three weeks ago.

And looking at the raw date, its still difficult to see how we get from where we are to anything like 100k to 200k mortality in the USA or any of the massive numbers once proposed worldwide.

Today, 264 deaths in the USA. Yesterday it was 501. We are most certainly not in the declining state. We are in the increasing stage. But mortality numbers are not going through the roof. Active cases are, but that appears to be more as a result of big increases in testing. The outbreak is mature enough in the US that we should be seeing huge numbers of death and massive increases each day.

How do we get from 264 or 500 to 200k when even the pessimistic folks are predicting a peak "in the second week of April"?

What's going on? What am I missing?

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 2413
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:08:42 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Mortality chart for the USA. To get from here to 100k, we'd have to average 1k deaths a day for the next three months.

Nowhere has the virus outbreak had that kind of sustained impact. Not China. Not South Korea. And, judging from the strong trend in numbers, not Italy.

This critter seems to blow itself out in six weeks to two months - on its own or through a strong assist by mankind (medicine, countermeasures, etc.). Most of the recent prognostications from US authorities have placed the peak in "the second week of April." If that's true, then the cases will be level or tapering going into the latter half of April.

Of course, if we rise up to 5k or 10k or 15k mortalities a day, the numbers jump massively. But there's no evidence yet of such a jump kicking in. Washington State and California have had outbreaks much longer than NYC and haven't imploded - at least, not yet.

We took countermeasures earlier in our cycle than Italy did theirs; we are blessed with a a more robust nationwide healthcare system that's had more time to gear up and develop treatments and ideas; we have a much bigger (but also more dispersed) population than Italy's. But I can't envision a scenario where we fail utterly in comparison.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/30/2020 4:10:27 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2414
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:17:22 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9080
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We've tossed around the seasonal flu numbers, usually focusing on around 40k.

The University of Washington came out with an estimate of 80k coronavirus deaths a few days ago.

On Sunday, Dr. Fauci offered a qualified 100k to 200k, noting that there are higher and lower estimates and that he's never seen a case where higher estimates come true. Of course, the press ran with that, AP offering headlines of "200k", followed by quite a few other outlets. Only a couple included the Doctor's qualifying comments. The press is absolutely terrible. Giving a smidgeon of truth but never the whole truth and in the process thereby offering a majestic distortion that bears no resemblance to the truth. General Sherman was absolutely right about the press.

Meantime, a world (and some forumites) are rattled by estimates that are considerably dampened compared to the apocalyptic numbers that were being floated two and three weeks ago.

And looking at the raw date, its still difficult to see how we get from where we are to anything like 100k to 200k mortality in the USA or any of the massive numbers once proposed worldwide.

Today, 264 deaths in the USA. Yesterday it was 501. We are most certainly not in the declining state. We are in the increasing stage. But mortality numbers are not going through the roof. Active cases are, but that appears to be more as a result of big increases in testing. The outbreak is mature enough in the US that we should be seeing huge numbers of death and massive increases each day.

How do we get from 264 or 500 to 200k when even the pessimistic folks are predicting a peak "in the second week of April"?

What's going on? What am I missing?


[CDC website says ~34.2K for 2018-19 seasonal flu death toll. An April 2019 UMN.edu page had it at 34K-52K.]


Because it's exponential (I know you know this, but it's really hard to internalize what exactly that means). We (as a country) haven't even reached the peak of the deaths curve yet, and roughly 2/3 of the area under the curve (the total number of deaths, in other words; also this is basically calculus, class) falls within 1 standard deviation of the midpoint on a standard bell curve.

I wouldn't be shocked if we hit 200K over perhaps a year or so, but honestly I don't think this is really "real" yet for much of the country. I think for many folks and many areas, it's still only half real. Given Fauci's update today, I think it's realistic to expect somewhere in the range of 100-150K over the next 3-6 months, and that's with our social shutdown. If we ease up on that, the number of deaths rises dramatically.

An analogy I read the other week for thinking about the exponential rate and how our brains work follows, but the example was for doubling every day rather than doubling every 3rd day. It still holds, it's just a bit slower. Imagine you have a pond and the amount of the surface covered by the algae doubles every day. Aroundabouts the time the algae covers half, or perhaps only 1/4, of the pond, you decide that the problem is serious enough that you've got to act on it. But then the next day, the algae completely covers the pond. (The pond in this example would be analogous to our peak deaths per day).

Basically, we're still on the ramp up to the peak even just on the number of cases (with deaths lagging perhaps 2 weeks or more behind?), just in NYC and the other cities with large numbers of cases now. Nevermind other parts of the country that are only just "getting started" on their number of cases.


We could really use more testing, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2415
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:24:50 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
A better example. Double a penny every day and in 20 days you have a few dollars. In 30 days you have something like 11 million dollars.

I understand exponents.

I do not understand the correlation between the numbers being reported and 100k or 200k in the USA.

How do we get from Governor Cuomo's peak "the second week of April" to a six month cataclysm? I know he's talking about New York, but still. Cities in California and Washington have dealt with it longer and didn't explode.

And with all the increases coming in hospital beds and ventilators, ideas for treatments and skill at treating, we're not gonna get on top of this?

I don't see it.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/30/2020 4:30:11 AM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2416
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:30:32 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9080
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mortality chart for the USA. To get from here to 100k, we'd have to average 1k deaths a day for the next three months.

Nowhere has the virus outbreak had that kind of sustained impact. Not China. Not South Korea. And, judging from the strong trend in numbers, not Italy.

This critter seems to blow itself out in six weeks to two months - on its own or through a strong assist by mankind (medicine, countermeasures, etc.). Most of the recent prognostications from US authorities have placed the peak in "the second week of April." If that's true, then the cases will be level or tapering going into the latter half of April.

Of course, if we rise up to 5k or 10k or 15k mortalities a day, the numbers jump massively. But there's no evidence yet of such a jump kicking in. Washington State and California have had outbreaks much longer than NYC and haven't imploded - at least, not yet.

We took countermeasures earlier in our cycle than Italy did theirs; we are blessed with a a more robust nationwide healthcare system that's had more time to gear up and develop treatments and ideas; we have a much bigger (but also more dispersed) population than Italy's. But I can't envision a scenario where we fail utterly in comparison.





Perhaps - the curve of death rate per million for the US is under the Italian curve, but not by much. It's also possible that ours will be slower because our country is geographically bigger, which should ostensibly mean fewer deaths because the curve would be flatter (all else equal).

However, Italy (a country of ~60M) has passed a death toll of 10K and it's not clear that they're halfway through yet. That's a country less than 1/5 the size of the USA (~320M), so if we followed the Italian curve exactly and they are at exactly the midpoint of their deaths right now, then we'd see a death toll of just north of 100K.

It's worth noting that most other western countries are also essentially tracking with the Italian death curve (which is on day 33), except for Spain (which is doing worse at day 22) and Switzerland (which is doing better at day 24). The USA is also doing better and may follow a path closer to Switzerland's, but we're still a week behind all of these other countries in terms of number of days since death rate passed 1 per 10 million. Also worth noting that Germany, the country with the nearest number of ICU beds per capita to the US number, is on day 15 and on track with the Italian curve as well.

However, it's not apparent to me that the number of deaths per day in Italy has peaked, unless the curve is going to end up looking like a 5-year-old's drawing of a mountain instead of a drawing of a hill. So even if we're somewhat under the Italian death curve (which right now would put us at 100K-ish with very rough back of the envelope math), that's only if the Italian curve peaks right now. And there isn't really any convincing evidence yet that we'll stay under the Italian curve permanently. If we're lucky, maybe we will.

It's doubtful that I'll have time tomorrow during work hours (and after that I'm going outside), but if we can agree on a source to use (Johns Hopkins?), I can put these into Excel for daily visualization.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2417
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 4:32:23 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9080
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A better example. Double a penny every day and in 20 days you have a few dollars. In 30 days you have something like 11 million dollars.

I understand exponents.

I do not understand the correlation between the numbers being reported and 100k or 200k in the USA.

How do we get from Governor Cuomo's peak "the second week of April" to a six month cataclysm? I know he's talking about New York, but still. Cities in California and Washington have dealt with it longer and didn't explode.

And with all the increases coming in hospital beds and ventilators, ideas for treatments and skill at treating, we're not gonna get on top of this?

I don't see it.


In order to peak in the second week of April (for deaths; not sure which he was referring to), they would have to be peaking on number of new cases right now.

That would be surprising to me, but I suppose it's technically possible. We'll find out in a few days whether March 30 was the peak for new cases in NYC, I suppose.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2418
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:00:43 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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He was referring to cases in general, not mortality.

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2419
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:03:38 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Italy, God bless them, was dealt a tough hand. If the US, with all the advantages at its disposal, doesn't do markedly better, I'll be shocked.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2420
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:05:05 AM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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It seems that the lag between new cases and mortality is closer to seven days than two weeks, from most of the graphs and charts I've seen.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2421
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:06:11 AM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 827
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A better example. Double a penny every day and in 20 days you have a few dollars. In 30 days you have something like 11 million dollars.

I understand exponents.

I do not understand the correlation between the numbers being reported and 100k or 200k in the USA.

How do we get from Governor Cuomo's peak "the second week of April" to a six month cataclysm? I know he's talking about New York, but still. Cities in California and Washington have dealt with it longer and didn't explode.

And with all the increases coming in hospital beds and ventilators, ideas for treatments and skill at treating, we're not gonna get on top of this?

I don't see it.




Hi Dan,

So these are numbers I have floating around on my scratchpad. You can play with them in many different scenarios; this is just what I'm looking at and thinking...

US Population roughly 329.34 million

Total Cases = 142,178
Total Deaths = 2,484 <-- these are part of the 142k above

Say there are 20 cases that go unreported for every case (A total WAG):

142,178 x 20 = 2,843,560

Let's say only 1/2 of the population gets the virus (Just a WAG) - that's about 165 million people.

Let's round up 2,843,560 to 3 million (this is 20x the total cases plus the original 142,178 cases detected. )

165 / 3 = 55

So three million goes into 1/2 of our 329.34 population roughly 55 times

So let's multiply the current deaths by 55

2,484 x 55 = 136,620 deaths if the virus goes through 1/2 of the US population…







_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2422
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:07:52 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
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quote:

Today, 264 deaths in the USA. Yesterday it was 501. We are most certainly not in the declining state. We are in the increasing stage. But mortality numbers are not going through the roof. Active cases are, but that appears to be more as a result of big increases in testing. The outbreak is mature enough in the US that we should be seeing huge numbers of death and massive increases each day.

How do we get from 264 or 500 to 200k when even the pessimistic folks are predicting a peak "in the second week of April"?

What's going on? What am I missing?


A silver lining for today is that it's the first day since March 16th that the daily death total went down. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike tomorrow because virus aren't overly concerned about time tables.

The exponential nature of it all is that it gets there *very* fast. Two weeks is roughly 15 days, and if the US keeps its current speed of doubling every 3 days, that is 5 more doublings. It's at 2484 now, but * 2^5 and suddenly we're at 79,488. And if the death numbers plateau similar to how China and Italy's seem to be, it could be about 10 days or so of that deaths per day.

The math works out to an expontential function of about 1.26^15, and for easy math I just took that daily change and assumed it was a uniform distribution.

If this does go 15 more days, the plateau would be at around a value of 16,418 new deaths per day. Assuming that lasts 10 days, we're adding 164,000 to to 80,000 which is above 200k.



Hopefully we peak earlier and start flattening sooner. Here's how that can make a huge difference if we assume a 10 day plateau.

Time(d) - Daily Peak - Total
--------------------------------
14d     -     13030  - 193444 
13d     -     10341  - 153527
12d     -      8207  - 121847
11d     -      6514  -  96704
10d     -      5170  -  76749
 9d     -      4103  -  60912
 8d     -      3256  -  48343
 7d     -      2584  -  38367


This doesn't factor in the tail, though China did see a very quick drop to eventually a flattening (assuming we trust their numbers).


EDIT: This of course makes a lot of assumptions about the rate of change remaining static and there's a LOT of variables at play there and it's probably (hopefully) not going to be)

I can tweak the duration of the plateau pretty easily. At 15 days, a plateau of only 7 days is still just a shade under 200k.

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/30/2020 5:12:30 AM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2423
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:13:25 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
[In reply to DurnedWolf, a few posts above]


That's using way too many highly unknown variables, so that the calculation becomes tortured.

If half the US population becomes infected (say 170,000,000), and if the death rate that "everybody that's anybody" acknowledges is 1%, that means 1.7 million deaths in the good ol' USA.

Of course, nobody's talking like that any more.

Everybody's playing with numbers and the numbers do not make sense. The key, as everybody once acknowledged, is critical care beds (and attendant ventilators). This was being discussed three weeks ago; a lot has been done since then and a lot more will be done (how much you want to bet that the US ends up exporting tons of ventilators to impacted countries?).





< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/30/2020 5:14:28 AM >

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 2424
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:27:35 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
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quote:

Everybody's playing with numbers and the numbers do not make sense. The key, as everybody once acknowledged, is critical care beds (and attendant ventilators). This was being discussed three weeks ago; a lot has been done since then and a lot more will be done (how much you want to bet that the US ends up exporting tons of ventilators to impacted countries?).


I'm just looking at the numbers and current trends, which I assume are not a result of a lack of critical care beds or anything (I don't see how the numbers do not make sense).

There's assumptions with the model (it's easier to work with straight lines than curves and I don't feel like doing any calculus) for sure, and I *do* think it's the worst case, but with a pessimistic forecast of peaking in 2 weeks we'd still break 200k.

Not to is going to need to be a slower decay.

I have a spreadsheet made up now so if you have any numbers you'd like me to plug in to see how they go, feel free to share and I can input them.

Current variables are just these two:
Rate of growth (my numbers were doubling every 3 days, which is 1.26)
Days of plateau (I went with 10, but that's super easy to change)

Let me know a rate you think doubling will occur and how long you'd expect the plateau to be and I can find out.

I might plug around with values to put a range of estimates. Though we can already see with the numbers I shared if the US daily deaths peaks within a week, the end of month numbers are quite low.

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/30/2020 5:28:38 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2425
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:29:58 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
P.S. We've all acknowledged this before but it bears repeating. Even while we engage in vigorous debate, picking apart numbers and trends to try to get at truth, the numbers represent real lives. I (we) know that this is a real disaster in Italy and NYC and other places; there it would be difficult or impossible to remain objective; there it must seem like the apocalypse has arrived.

So, as I sign off and head to bed, best wishes to all folks dealing with this. My guess is that if people as polite and bright as this forum are dealing with this, we're gonna beat it. And there's a good chance the people dealing with it are even brighter, 'cause they don't have Chickenboy to throw off the curve.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2426
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:37:12 AM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 827
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[In reply to DurnedWolf, a few posts above]


That's using way too many highly unknown variables, so that the calculation becomes tortured.

If half the US population becomes infected (say 170,000,000), and if the death rate that "everybody that's anybody" acknowledges is 1%, that means 1.7 million deaths in the good ol' USA.

Of course, nobody's talking like that any more.

Everybody's playing with numbers and the numbers do not make sense. The key, as everybody once acknowledged, is critical care beds (and attendant ventilators). This was being discussed three weeks ago; a lot has been done since then and a lot more will be done (how much you want to bet that the US ends up exporting tons of ventilators to impacted countries?).





Right, but you noted the 100 to 200k number in the US and that you don't see where they are getting those numbers...

I'm just saying that I think this is how they are making their prediction. I think they are spit-balling it and adding in some kind of a fudge factor (what I call WAGs)...

I'm not saying you are wrong - I was just looking at how they might-coulda got to that 100-200k range.

I personally think that this COVID-19 might-could act like tossing a stone in the pond and we will probably get "ripples" of viral cases within our population... They are still seeing additional cases in China and S. Korea...

_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2427
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:42:11 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Thanks, durnedwolf, I understand better what you're saying.

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 2428
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:52:09 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21005
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Looking at this again, the irrationality of the numbers we're getting from the media and the experts seems apparent.

Most of them are estimating infection rates of 50% to 70% in the US. That means about 170,000,000 to 238,000,000 should be infected. Using the "standard" (nearly universally accepted) mortality rate of 1% yields and expected death toll of 1,750,000 to 2,380,000.

Since those totals are 10x or more what the experts are now floating, there's something wrong. Either the 50% to 70% is way off or the mortality rate is way off. If it's the latter, and if Dr. Fauci is right at 100k to 200k mortality, that means the mortality rate is something like 0.1% or less, which is the same or less than seasonal flu.

So if it isn't the mortality rate that's off, its the infection rate. Instead of 50% or 70% of the nation being infected it would be more like 5%! (5% of 340,000,000 x 1% yields 170k, a figure within Dr. Fauci's range).

Or it could be that both numbers are off considerably.

Not matter what, the numbers don't add up. They never add up. The media and the experts are so focused on working with numbers that they torture them and don't realize the outcomes contradict each other. Either we're going to have a lot less infected than they're predicting or the mortality rate is going to be much less than 1%....or both. My bet is the latter.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/30/2020 6:09:51 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2429
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/30/2020 5:58:12 AM   
Sardaukar


Posts: 7505
Joined: 11/28/2001
From: Finland/Israel
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Nobody knows real infection numbers, since there are no way to test all. It's neither practical nor we have enough test kits and labs in this world.

In Finland, there are 1218 confirmed infections. We test only those in higher risk and health professionals etc. 11 have died by Sunday.+55 confirmed infections a day.

Health professionals here say real number of infections is probably 20-30x what has been confirmed.



_____________________________

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-


(in reply to Canoerebel)
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