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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:35:10 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

... I gave a talk in Colombia in the late 1990s...



Was your talk at about the same time as Ross's (crsutton's) chat with the Chilean prostitute?


Different country. Different audience.

BTW, shouldn't that be "Ross' " chat instead of "Ross's " chat? Just wanted to do my part to make sure we still have grammatical standards around these here parts.

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Post #: 1861
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:41:39 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Daily Mail posted this startling, misleading graph. It tells the truth but not the whole truth. A percentage of the population (certainly Forumites) understand the utility and weaknesses of this graph, but the media presents it without context (without "the whole truth" so often key to comprehension). The casual reader - the layman - doesn't have context, takes a look, and shudders. He knows that Italy has been ground zero for weeks and concludes that the US is in far worse shape. He doesn't have time to do the quick calculation needed to understand this is raw numbers rather than per capita, that the graph has a seriously distorted y axis, etc.



Exactly. The Daily Mail is not known for its journalistic integrity.

Good example of bad data visualisation. I'd add total cases and the entire curve as well instead of this tiny section of it.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1862
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:44:11 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

But perhaps Niall should stick to history, and not dabble in mathematics.

quote:

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.


In above link.


Ahhh, the joys of choosing soundbites out of context. I'm pretty sure basic maths is in his sphere of knowledge.



The nicest thing I've Heard said about Niall was by Sir Antony Beevor (during questions at the end of a a talk) - something to the effect -

'I prefer to leave the counter factuals to Niall Ferguson and Andrew Roberts"


Maybe Antony Beevor has trouble with historians who try to view the legacy of the British Empire without Union Jack tinted glasses on?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Assuming I'm not being whooshed by a joke here - I think this is a sub-editing error. There is a Neil Ferguson at Imperial College who is an epidemiologist who I assume is the person who is actually being quoted.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson



Correct. Niall is an economist and historian, not an epidemiologist.


That is funny!

I remember now. He actually has contracted Covid-19, and was the lead author of the recent paper about effects of Covid on the UK and US without more extreme measures.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/24/2020 5:46:32 PM >


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Post #: 1863
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:50:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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"Ross's" is correct. Either method is acceptable but I prefer the one that most closely mimics speech. I would audibly say it "Ross's," so that's how I punctuate it.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel






quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

... I gave a talk in Colombia in the late 1990s...



Was your talk at about the same time as Ross's (crsutton's) chat with the Chilean prostitute?


Different country. Different audience.

BTW, shouldn't that be "Ross' " chat instead of "Ross's " chat? Just wanted to do my part to make sure we still have grammatical standards around these here parts.





(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1864
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:51:52 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I would not be surprised if a combination of travel restrictions, proactive testing and contact tracing and the simple dispersion of rural populations leads to some US states having very different, much more positive, outcomes and experiences than what has been seen elsewhere in the world.


I agree. Our country is quite heterogenous in its population distribution. Big cities on the East coast, West coast and a few in the Midwest and South. With lots of smaller communities in between. New York City's epidemiologic curve will likely wind up looking very different than Ames, Iowa or Houston, Texas.


I mentioned earlier that the differences in this big sprawling country could cause both difficulties and advantages at local levels depending on how the State and county leadership deal with this.

The difficult factor to deal with is movement of people. As the virus hits hard someplace it could lead to an exodus, bringing it elsewhere in force as has occurred in Iran, Italy and other locations.


When you mention a 'this big sprawling country' were you referring to the UK or the US? I just don't see that happening here-an exodus of people uniformly fleeing one area en masse. Apart from some New Yorkers heading to the Hamptons rather than the heart of the city per se, I've really not heard much about that panicked flight response.

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Post #: 1865
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:55:59 PM   
obvert


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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the cases chart with the relatively new multi-country charts below. Very interesting comparisons, and some countries that are starting to have worrying trajectories, like Turkey, Pakistan and Ecuador.





Any charts that correct for per capita cases, obvert? The United States is the third most populous country in the world. Comparing raw case numbers for the trajectory compared to a place like Switzerland with less than 10% of our population seems spurious.


Why spurious? China and India are here too.

The interest for me, and this may just be for me, is to see the doubling rate, which is not different depending on population , right?

It's all spurious since we don't know anything about "real numbers" but if this does show evidence of the curves, the trajectories, the successes and more difficult areas, then it's useful as a comparative tool.

It's more useful when you have some knowledge of testing programs and other factors as we do on this thread. So I see it as one of the tools, not a comprehensive one. Maybe one could be designed with every interesting factor, but I think it could become more difficult to read quickly.

So as the US stays above the doubling every three day curve we know that is because to the recent surge in testing, and when it dips under that it'll be likely that it's heading toward the peak of the curve.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1866
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:57:51 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15653
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Back in Oz, we now have 8 deaths and just over 2000 cases.

Interestingly, the majority of the increase is straight from a series of returning cruise ships including the Ruby Princess.

The cruise ship passengers might be easiest to trace, but airlines would have brought the virus into every city with an international airport already.

Canada's first cases were all airline travel related. Now we are seeing a surge because our "snowbirds" are returning from vacations and lengthy stays in other countries (up to 5.5 months) to avoid our winter. Many are arriving by car from the US - they are allowed to cross the border to return home.

Over a million have returned in the last two weeks and all are expected to self-isolate on arrival at home. But greater testing and greater awareness of symptoms has resulted in a spike of positive tests, mostly from these snowbirds. So if they got the virus in the US or some other country, the cases there are being exported! Much of the timing of these people returning is driven by the assurance of health care here vs. the fear that other countries health care systems reaching or exceeding capacity.

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Post #: 1867
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 5:59:29 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Unfortunate about Italy though based on say, China, I suspect that part of the flattening will involve an actual plateau, as opposed to a sudden decline.

It's funny how anxious I am for their results hahaha.


I won't have granularity until the province data is available tomorrow, but here's a quick look at the trend based on the new country total. The rate of increase at the country level has stayed roughly the same for two days now. The death rate increase, while high, is definitely a trailing indicator and yet still a lot lower than it was a few days ago.

Also, the numbers posted by ITAKLinus are not accurate. I used the 3/24 update from Worldometers, which has proven to be correct (at least with respect to countries whose data we trust)




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1868
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:06:18 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I would not be surprised if a combination of travel restrictions, proactive testing and contact tracing and the simple dispersion of rural populations leads to some US states having very different, much more positive, outcomes and experiences than what has been seen elsewhere in the world.


I agree. Our country is quite heterogenous in its population distribution. Big cities on the East coast, West coast and a few in the Midwest and South. With lots of smaller communities in between. New York City's epidemiologic curve will likely wind up looking very different than Ames, Iowa or Houston, Texas.


I mentioned earlier that the differences in this big sprawling country could cause both difficulties and advantages at local levels depending on how the State and county leadership deal with this.

The difficult factor to deal with is movement of people. As the virus hits hard someplace it could lead to an exodus, bringing it elsewhere in force as has occurred in Iran, Italy and other locations.


When you mention a 'this big sprawling country' were you referring to the UK or the US? I just don't see that happening here-an exodus of people uniformly fleeing one area en masse. Apart from some New Yorkers heading to the Hamptons rather than the heart of the city per se, I've really not heard much about that panicked flight response.


The UK is not sprawling, and it doesn't have states.

In Italy one of the reasons this has been hard to contain is that every time a lockdown occurred it was either weak or the info leaked and people left to go other areas where they had family, friends, holiday homes, etc. This carried the virus and made it hard to contain.

I don't think basic human instinct is too different anywhere. If you can move and you have a place to go, like mom and dad's, or uncle's beach house, or grandpa's mountain cabin, or just a camping ground or RV park, you might just think about getting out while you can.

This has interestingly been happening here, and has led to restrictions tightening. National Parks are having to close due to overwhelming visitation. I've heard of this in the States as well. I'll try to find a link.

Edit: Found some.
https://abc7news.com/6039701

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/new-yorkers-fleeing-to-florida-to-avoid-coronavirus-lockdown-desantis-says.html


< Message edited by obvert -- 3/24/2020 6:15:27 PM >


_____________________________

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Post #: 1869
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:08:01 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Any charts that correct for per capita cases, obvert? The United States is the third most populous country in the world. Comparing raw case numbers for the trajectory compared to a place like Switzerland with less than 10% of our population seems spurious.

quote:


Why spurious? China and India are here too.

The interest for me, and this may just be for me, is to see the doubling rate, which is not different depending on population , right?

It's all spurious since we don't know anything about "real numbers" but if this does show evidence of the curves, the trajectories, the successes and more difficult areas, then it's useful as a comparative tool.

It's more useful when you have some knowledge of testing programs and other factors as we do on this thread. So I see it as one of the tools, not a comprehensive one. Maybe one could be designed with every interesting factor, but I think it could become more difficult to read quickly.

So as the US stays above the doubling every three day curve we know that is because to the recent surge in testing, and when it dips under that it'll be likely that it's heading toward the peak of the curve.


I'd rather see raw case numbers per capita to account for larger populations and avoid the extrapolation from small sample sizes/small population countries. By looking at 'cumulative numbers of confirmed cases' on the X axis and 'number of days since 100th case' on the Y, it gives a picture that-without accounting for vastly different populations-is misleading.

If you replaced the raw numbers X axis with a per capita numbers, the US curve would look very different (lower) than Spain, France, Germany or most of the other countries sandwiched into that upper graph major band. Of course, China's curve would be significantly lower too. Italy and Spain would remain standouts.

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Post #: 1870
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:08:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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When this thread began 2/26/20, China was far past peak on new cases and dropping fast on daily deaths; South Korea was midway up the exponential increase in new cases; Italy was in the very early days, just beginning it's long climb; everywhere else, cases were pretty spotty (as I recall now, Vancouver and Washington State were early hotspots in North America, followed by Toronto and Illinois and California, though modest numbers, at that time).

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Post #: 1871
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:11:25 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I would not be surprised if a combination of travel restrictions, proactive testing and contact tracing and the simple dispersion of rural populations leads to some US states having very different, much more positive, outcomes and experiences than what has been seen elsewhere in the world.


I agree. Our country is quite heterogenous in its population distribution. Big cities on the East coast, West coast and a few in the Midwest and South. With lots of smaller communities in between. New York City's epidemiologic curve will likely wind up looking very different than Ames, Iowa or Houston, Texas.


I mentioned earlier that the differences in this big sprawling country could cause both difficulties and advantages at local levels depending on how the State and county leadership deal with this.

The difficult factor to deal with is movement of people. As the virus hits hard someplace it could lead to an exodus, bringing it elsewhere in force as has occurred in Iran, Italy and other locations.


When you mention a 'this big sprawling country' were you referring to the UK or the US? I just don't see that happening here-an exodus of people uniformly fleeing one area en masse. Apart from some New Yorkers heading to the Hamptons rather than the heart of the city per se, I've really not heard much about that panicked flight response.


The UK is not sprawling, and it doesn't have states.

In Italy one of the reasons this has been hard to contain is that every time a lockdown occurred it was either weak or the info leaked and people left to go other areas where they had family, friends, holiday homes, etc. This carried the virus and made it hard to contain.

I don't think basic human instinct is too different anywhere. If you can move and you have a place to go, like mom and dad's, or uncle's beach house, or grandpa's mountain cabin, or just a camping ground or RV park, you might just think about getting out while you can.

This has interestingly been happening here, and has led to restrictions tightening. National Parks are having to close due to overwhelming visitation. I've heard of this in the States as well. I'll try to find a link.


There's a difference between a few cases and instances and mass exodus. It's a question of degrees. I've not seen or heard anything about an 'exodus' (your word) of people fleeing lockdowns here. This may be different in Europe or elsewhere, but that's not part of our base instinct.

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Post #: 1872
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:12:26 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15653
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the cases chart with the relatively new multi-country charts below. Very interesting comparisons, and some countries that are starting to have worrying trajectories, like Turkey, Pakistan and Ecuador.



Any charts that correct for per capita cases, obvert? The United States is the third most populous country in the world. Comparing raw case numbers for the trajectory compared to a place like Switzerland with less than 10% of our population seems spurious.

Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 3/24/2020 6:40:11 PM >


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Post #: 1873
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:12:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Yes, national (Kennesaw Mountain National Battlefield, for instance) and state and local parks (beaches) are closing in some areas. The Appalachian Trail Conservancy, which manages the famed trail, has urged thru-hikers to get off the trail. So many people are doing day hikes, or section hikes, that parking areas at road crossings are jam packed, at least in the South, where it's definitely springtime. (I'd be on the trail backpacking now, except I don't wish to leave my family during a time of uncertainty.)


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

....
This has interestingly been happening here, and has led to restrictions tightening. National Parks are having to close due to overwhelming visitation. I've heard of this in the States as well. I'll try to find a link.


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1874
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:14:56 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

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Post #: 1875
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:17:11 PM   
Zerberus_MatrixForum


Posts: 58
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From: Erlangen, Germany
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


In some countries there are weird ways of assessing the death cause (your Kaposi's sarcoma example and mine regarding lung cancer in Ukraine) and Germany is definitely counting the people died OF coronavirus, instead of died WITH it as we do in Italy.



Thats not correct. Any case, where an infection with covid is detected, does count in current german statistics, wether covid was the direct reason for death or not. An other question is, wether all deaths are tested before, but density of testing seems high at least.

Still a word to your remark to economic consequences: This situation is completely different than debt crisis in the years before. Also the public opinion of the northern bean counters (at least here) makes no doubt, that we will have to fight this together in Europe and that it is necessary to support each other - now and afterwards.


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Post #: 1876
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:17:17 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Any charts that correct for per capita cases, obvert? The United States is the third most populous country in the world. Comparing raw case numbers for the trajectory compared to a place like Switzerland with less than 10% of our population seems spurious.

quote:


Why spurious? China and India are here too.

The interest for me, and this may just be for me, is to see the doubling rate, which is not different depending on population , right?

It's all spurious since we don't know anything about "real numbers" but if this does show evidence of the curves, the trajectories, the successes and more difficult areas, then it's useful as a comparative tool.

It's more useful when you have some knowledge of testing programs and other factors as we do on this thread. So I see it as one of the tools, not a comprehensive one. Maybe one could be designed with every interesting factor, but I think it could become more difficult to read quickly.

So as the US stays above the doubling every three day curve we know that is because to the recent surge in testing, and when it dips under that it'll be likely that it's heading toward the peak of the curve.


I'd rather see raw case numbers per capita to account for larger populations and avoid the extrapolation from small sample sizes/small population countries. By looking at 'cumulative numbers of confirmed cases' on the X axis and 'number of days since 100th case' on the Y, it gives a picture that-without accounting for vastly different populations-is misleading.

If you replaced the raw numbers X axis with a per capita numbers, the US curve would look very different (lower) than Spain, France, Germany or most of the other countries sandwiched into that upper graph major band. Of course, China's curve would be significantly lower too. Italy and Spain would remain standouts.


I think you miss the point. The curve in relation to the total population is not what this is trying to show. that is some other visual I've not seen. interesting, sure, but this is about doubling speed of the virus cases. So comparing countries without population totals is actually just fine for that.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1877
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:26:09 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the cases chart with the relatively new multi-country charts below. Very interesting comparisons, and some countries that are starting to have worrying trajectories, like Turkey, Pakistan and Ecuador.



Any charts that correct for per capita cases, obvert? The United States is the third most populous country in the world. Comparing raw case numbers for the trajectory compared to a place like Switzerland with less than 10% of our population seems spurious.


Why spurious? China and India are here too.

The interest for me, and this may just be for me, is to see the doubling rate, which is not different depending on population , right?

It's all spurious since we don't know anything about "real numbers" but if this does show evidence of the curves, the trajectories, the successes and more difficult areas, then it's useful as a comparative tool.

It's more useful when you have some knowledge of testing programs and other factors as we do on this thread. So I see it as one of the tools, not a comprehensive one. Maybe one could be designed with every interesting factor, but I think it could become more difficult to read quickly.

So as the US stays above the doubling every three day curve we know that is because to the recent surge in testing, and when it dips under that it'll be likely that it's heading toward the peak of the curve.


To put those country charts in perspective, here are the testing stats for 4 of the 5 countries named in the above posts, all of whom are in the bottom 20 countries in the world in terms of "tests per million". Which basically means those countries are only testing the most obviously symptomatic individuals.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/24/2020 6:29:50 PM >


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Post #: 1878
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:47:09 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9132
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Any charts that correct for per capita cases, obvert? The United States is the third most populous country in the world. Comparing raw case numbers for the trajectory compared to a place like Switzerland with less than 10% of our population seems spurious.

quote:


Why spurious? China and India are here too.

The interest for me, and this may just be for me, is to see the doubling rate, which is not different depending on population , right?

It's all spurious since we don't know anything about "real numbers" but if this does show evidence of the curves, the trajectories, the successes and more difficult areas, then it's useful as a comparative tool.

It's more useful when you have some knowledge of testing programs and other factors as we do on this thread. So I see it as one of the tools, not a comprehensive one. Maybe one could be designed with every interesting factor, but I think it could become more difficult to read quickly.

So as the US stays above the doubling every three day curve we know that is because to the recent surge in testing, and when it dips under that it'll be likely that it's heading toward the peak of the curve.


I'd rather see raw case numbers per capita to account for larger populations and avoid the extrapolation from small sample sizes/small population countries. By looking at 'cumulative numbers of confirmed cases' on the X axis and 'number of days since 100th case' on the Y, it gives a picture that-without accounting for vastly different populations-is misleading.

If you replaced the raw numbers X axis with a per capita numbers, the US curve would look very different (lower) than Spain, France, Germany or most of the other countries sandwiched into that upper graph major band. Of course, China's curve would be significantly lower too. Italy and Spain would remain standouts.


I think you miss the point. The curve in relation to the total population is not what this is trying to show. that is some other visual I've not seen. interesting, sure, but this is about doubling speed of the virus cases. So comparing countries without population totals is actually just fine for that.


Yeah - I wouldn't want per capita on this. You can only compare country to country if you use absolute numbers of cases.


Also, unsure if this was posted last week and I'm not digging through the thread for it, but worth reposting even if it was: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals

Interesting that they chose to highlight Takoma Park (that's about 5 miles from me) [EDIT: turns out it uses a best guess based on your IP.]. There used to be a hospital located there, but no longer. Also it's easily part of the greater DC area so you'd think that they'd just look at the metro area for that with its handful of very large hospitals, but...

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 3/24/2020 6:53:00 PM >

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Post #: 1879
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:50:31 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
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Took this pic in the store today




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1880
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:51:21 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Any charts that correct for per capita cases, obvert? The United States is the third most populous country in the world. Comparing raw case numbers for the trajectory compared to a place like Switzerland with less than 10% of our population seems spurious.

quote:


Why spurious? China and India are here too.

The interest for me, and this may just be for me, is to see the doubling rate, which is not different depending on population , right?

It's all spurious since we don't know anything about "real numbers" but if this does show evidence of the curves, the trajectories, the successes and more difficult areas, then it's useful as a comparative tool.

It's more useful when you have some knowledge of testing programs and other factors as we do on this thread. So I see it as one of the tools, not a comprehensive one. Maybe one could be designed with every interesting factor, but I think it could become more difficult to read quickly.

So as the US stays above the doubling every three day curve we know that is because to the recent surge in testing, and when it dips under that it'll be likely that it's heading toward the peak of the curve.


I'd rather see raw case numbers per capita to account for larger populations and avoid the extrapolation from small sample sizes/small population countries. By looking at 'cumulative numbers of confirmed cases' on the X axis and 'number of days since 100th case' on the Y, it gives a picture that-without accounting for vastly different populations-is misleading.

If you replaced the raw numbers X axis with a per capita numbers, the US curve would look very different (lower) than Spain, France, Germany or most of the other countries sandwiched into that upper graph major band. Of course, China's curve would be significantly lower too. Italy and Spain would remain standouts.


I think you miss the point. The curve in relation to the total population is not what this is trying to show. that is some other visual I've not seen. interesting, sure, but this is about doubling speed of the virus cases. So comparing countries without population totals is actually just fine for that.


It's entirely possible to draw different conclusions from the same data displayed. It's not that I think the chart is inaccurate, but I don't think the data displayed adequately support the conclusion that the average end user is likely to draw from it. I think most users would look at this graph and try to glean 'how much is a given country in a problematic situation' based upon the curve. I don't think the mathematical curiosity about doubling speed of the virus cases (particularly with all the known confounders about the verity of this data) is as endearing as other fundamentals that are population adjusted. Your mileage may vary.

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(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1881
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:52:35 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15653
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 3/24/2020 6:56:36 PM >


_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1882
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:55:20 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9132
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.


Why use anything but Wikipedia for these sorts of things?

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1883
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:58:15 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.


Nah. I've seen other population estimates close enough to these from multiple sources. Perhaps the former Soviet Union had circa 350MM population before its breakup, but no longer.



_____________________________


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1884
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:58:17 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15653
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.


Why use anything but Wikipedia for these sorts of things?

Right, I already added the Wikipedia screenshot to my post.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1885
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:58:26 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Everyday for the past few days the power will pop at least once, necessitating resetting of electric clocks, etc. I live in the heart of TVA.

I surmise that "sheltering in" is putting a heavy load on the grid.

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“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1886
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 6:59:40 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.


Why use anything but Wikipedia for these sorts of things?


OK. Here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population

Russia still in 9th place.

_____________________________


(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1887
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:00:04 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.


I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.



The worldometers numbers match the Johns Hopkins ones to a T. Actually more accurate, since the hackers are all focused on screwing with Johns Hopkins. Plus they list the source of their information every day AND archive it so you can go back in time and check the source data. Good luck doing that with JH.

_____________________________


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1888
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:01:03 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.





Dude. Your chart is of area (land mass) of countries ranked. Russia is really big. But I was referring to population sizes, not land mass.

_____________________________


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1889
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:07:03 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Dude. Your chart is of area (land mass) of countries ranked. Russia is really big. But I was referring to population sizes, not land mass.


BBfanboy, you can borrow this:









Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/24/2020 7:08:04 PM >


_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1890
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