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RE: OT: Corona virus

 
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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 6:01:52 PM   
alanschu

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Why self-isolating at home may have a drastically different impact than desired.



I was under the impression that Singapore was pretty aggressive in their contact mitigation strategies.

They saw an uptick of 40 cases and have banned gatherings larger than 250 and mandating stricter spacing. From a newspaper yesterday:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/covid-19-40-new-cases-in-spore-stricter-safe-distancing-measures-including-1m-separation


quote:

Stressing that it cannot be business as usual, task force co-chair Lawrence Wong, the Minister for National Development, said that the aim was to have fewer people out and about, and a reduction in social gatherings and any activity that could be a potential social vector for the virus.

On how the safe distancing measures will be enforced, Mr Wong said this can be done in several ways.

For example, food and beverage outlets that are licensed will have to close some tables.

"So it is not an option, it is not advisory, it is mandatory," he said.

"We will start tomorrow and it will take some time to roll out fully but we will aim to do so as quickly as possible."

He added: "We do not want to see crowded venues, we do not want to see packed event halls. We should see more work from home, more takeaways.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1591
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 6:08:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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Singers just ramped up its restrictions yesterday (3/20) and they are still much notably less stringent than those in most of the USA now. Allowing gatherings of 250 or less in comparison to here, where a sizeable percentage of the country is limited to small gatherings and/or shelter-in-home requirements. (I'm not commenting on whether any particular restriction is better or worse - just that there are in fact differences - and the possibility that shelter-in-home might have unintended consequences.)


(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1592
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 6:29:38 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Singers just ramped up its restrictions yesterday (3/20) and they are still much notably less stringent than those in most of the USA now. Allowing gatherings of 250 or less in comparison to here, where a sizeable percentage of the country is limited to small gatherings and/or shelter-in-home requirements. (I'm not commenting on whether any particular restriction is better or worse - just that there are in fact differences - and the possibility that shelter-in-home might have unintended consequences.)


Yes, starting nine months later . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1593
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 7:29:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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It took me about two hours to get that.


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Post #: 1594
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 7:45:22 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It took me about two hours to get that.






_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1595
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 8:01:32 PM   
alanschu

 

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I actually don't get it! I'm assuming it's more of a WW2 thing :P

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/21/2020 11:47:12 PM >

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Post #: 1596
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 8:08:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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Thank goodness I'm not the only one, alanschu!

Self-isolation at home may have unintended consequences, nine months down the road, if a member of the opposite sex of suitable age and availability is also there.

(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1597
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 9:11:52 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zerberus_MatrixForum

Cost of testing is not a topic here, the slogan is "whatever it takes".

Nevertheless there is a change in testing strategy, especially in southern Germany (still not yet the whole country).

It's said, that the limited testing ressources are concentrated now on vulnerable groups, that means persons with symptoms and older than 65 or already chronical ill or medical workforce. It becomes harder from day to day to test area-wide. People should stay at home, when they have mild symptoms only.

South Korea seems to be no model anymore, because the situation is not comparable. There you had a managable group of infections caused by this crazy religious group, which you could contain and track down. Here, and of course in other european countries, you have a nationwide impact from travellers all over the country, coming back from winter holidays.

Another point is, that tests of people without any symptoms are not safe enough. The first 2 - 3 days after infection tests are often negative, so you have to test the same people 2 - 3 times.

Source for this information is Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung ,that means a reputable nationwide paper (article has to be paid and is in german)

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/coronavirus-krise-wer-darf-sich-noch-testen-lassen-16688735.html?premium

The medical workforce one is not a one-time test per person. These people are potentially in contact with infected patients and the aim is to prevent the medical staff from transferring the virus to other patients or their families. As I understand it, the tests do not detect the infection for the first week, so each medical worker should be tested once a week - ideally. I don't think we will ever get that many test kits available or get that disciplined in our efforts. Waiting for symptoms seems to be the norm.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Zerberus_MatrixForum)
Post #: 1598
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 9:20:41 PM   
Zerberus_MatrixForum


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A test result within 45 min?

This could be a big step forward for area-wide testing ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/fda-grants-emergency-use-coronavirus-test-that-can-deliver-results-in-45-minutes.html

Cepheid has received emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration to use its rapid molecular test for point-of-care patients that can detect coronavirus in 45 minutes.
This is the first coronavirus that can be conducted entirely at the point of care for patients and deliver results in less than an hour.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1599
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 9:21:26 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu


quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


What is your source for saying death rates were lower than they are now?



Referring to the changes in *new* deaths, it was in the link. The amount of new deaths per day continues to accelerate.



Hang on, the 'amount' is a fraction of infections - more deaths does not mean the rate of deaths has increased, if the spread of infection went up more.

Where is the overall calculation that includes both total known infections, and total known deaths?

The WHO site probably has one. We should look at that.


WHO gets its figures from countries, which have differing standards for testing and reporting and might even suppress some data. We need data from a county that is doing a good job of tracking and counting without hiding anything. Italy is at that point now and as Canoerebel has been pointing out their stats are the best indicator of what we might face. The high death rate among Italy's males is a wrinkle that may not apply everywhere. We will have to watch what happens in other countries in their mortality stats.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 1600
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 9:31:27 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Early today, Ranger posted this link: https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

I've just started reading through it. Again, the odd experience of reading thoughts previously articulated in here at length. As though this Forum really is a remarkable set.

Here's one chart that caught my eye:




I don't accept the premise of the graph because the early stages were the "discovery" phase when testing started and numbers were spiking because we finally knew what (who) to count. Once you know someone has it you don't count them in the subsequent weeks.

So the volume of testing must be factored in to the number of cases found i.e. the positive per thousand tests statistic we saw in an earlier chart. A plot of that stat over time would be instructive, with annotation of measures put in place on the time scale part of the chart.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1601
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 9:41:13 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Our province is testing 463 persons/100K, the highest rate in Canada. I'm no huge fan of our system but the central authority and universality is proving it's worth in this case. Even that test rate isn't high enough. Iceland plans to test everybody. We need to isolate the non-symptomatic carriers; testing and repeat testing is the only way.

I presume your province is Ontario?
If you could post the number of positives found that would be useful to compare with the chart that Kull posted showing positives per thousand tests.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1602
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 9:57:09 PM   
Canoerebel


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On the other hand, you'd expect a strong bias upwards as testing ramps up.

The author offers this as part of a series in an analyses centered on bell-shaped-curve part of what's going on as the outbreak matures. I found his thoughts insightful and helpful. He definitely leans towards the positive viewpoint. I do too, for many of the reasons he cites (and he goes into far more depth than I could, given my lower level of competence in these matters). I think he's mostly on target.

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

….
I don't accept the premise of the graph because the early stages were the "discovery" phase when testing started and numbers were spiking because we finally knew what (who) to count. Once you know someone has it you don't count them in the subsequent weeks.

So the volume of testing must be factored in to the number of cases found i.e. the positive per thousand tests statistic we saw in an earlier chart. A plot of that stat over time would be instructive, with annotation of measures put in place on the time scale part of the chart.


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1603
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 9:57:52 PM   
USSAmerica


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Very sadly, still no slow down in Italy. 793 new deaths today and 6557 new confirmed cases.

https://apnews.com/3dcb3392a3c566a1caad7444e93fc7e6

< Message edited by USSAmerica -- 3/21/2020 9:58:10 PM >


_____________________________

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Post #: 1604
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 10:02:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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Agreed, Mike. Had Italy turned the corner earlier in the week, as the daily mortality figures suggested for three or four days, that would have been very encouraging.

At this point, my primary point of study is daily mortality figures in the US, since we're now in the "mature" cycle of the virus. It's still likely that the first real turn for the better outside Asia will happen in Europe.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/21/2020 10:03:40 PM >

(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 1605
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 10:31:03 PM   
pbiggar

 

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I have been lurking in he forum for some time, but I do feel a need to respond to this post. I read the article a couple of times to follow the data that led to conclusion that "The data is overwhelming at this point that community-based spread and airborne transmission is not a threat" and we should all keep going to work.

Included in the article on many graphics pulled from reputable sources, but when you add them up I do not follow the authors conclusion.

I have not studied virology and public health, and so I rely on those who have. This conclusion in the article is opposite from everything I have read from those who specialize in this area. How can that be?

So on the one hand I have articles like this one https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial%20College%20COVID19%20NPI%20modelling%2016-03-2020.pdf
that convinced your President that the risk from COVID-19 isreal and that the situation was not under control in the US.

And this article, written by a guy with BA in Economics from Texas Christian University, whose qualifications are that he is viral marketer and a member of the California Republican Executive Committee.

The graphs are interesting, but I do not see how he has connected them to reach the conclusions that are counter to what our public health experts are telling us.

When you read the article, do the conclusions follow the data in your mind? <this is a serious question>

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Early today, Ranger posted this link: https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

I've just started reading through it. Again, the odd experience of reading thoughts previously articulated in here at length. As though this Forum really is a remarkable set.

Here's one chart that caught my eye:






(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1606
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 10:44:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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It made sense to me. He writes in favor of social distancing and some of the other actions taken. He is not in favor of others, for reasons that he explains and that, to me, make sense.

He posits that bunkering-at-home may have unforeseen consequences and provides the relevant date and conclusions that seem to support his analysis.

He offers some interesting information about whether the virus is as transmittable as the public and the press widely believe.

He analyzes and thinks on a level deeper than I do and offers a perspective not widely seen, to this point.

I don't mind him having ties to the California Republican Party or any party whatsoever. And he acknowledges his qualifications and lack thereof at the start.

I'm not here to be an apologist for him or his analysis, because that's beyond my capabilities. But I followed what he said and a lot of it (not all of it) made sense and seemed supported by some legit data.

(in reply to pbiggar)
Post #: 1607
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 11:00:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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I am not confident in at least one of his posits. He uses the "severe" case figure and cites Worldometer as his source. As we've repeatedly observed in here, that number seems wonky. I don't have confidence in it and wouldn't put much stock in that section at this time.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1608
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 11:12:54 PM   
RangerJoe


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I would also point out that some of the "experts" have at least one agenda. More money for their own research, more money for their organizations, power, prestige, heck - even seeing their names in the paper or just being on television.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1609
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 11:18:53 PM   
Ian R

 

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Finally, some calm and dispassionate analysis.

I particularly like the bit posted after this where the author says that there are many people who have likely had it and recovered - but didn't notice because the effects were so mild.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Like us, his focus is on the bell-shaped curve plus China and South Korea.








_____________________________

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Ian R

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Post #: 1610
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 11:34:43 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

The NYT said a day ago that the US had tested 25,000 while New South Wales, Australia had tested 33,000. Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere and experiencing Summer, where the virus has gone "poof", not there.

On the BBC news ( a very trustworthy source) a few minutes ago they said Australia had just reported a rise of over 1000 cases, its biggest one-day increase. Doesn't sound like "poof" to me. Perhaps different regions of Australia are having different experiences. Melbourne is much more temperate than Darwin, for example.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1611
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 11:43:39 PM   
Ian R

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I'm literally just talking about how many people are dying per day, and that that number is going getting higher each day.



It is an unhappy statistic, but without context it doesn't help in analysis. It's worth reposting something canoerebel linked to understand it - the total figure will go up, because the virus is working its way through Europe and Nth America. It only has a marginal footprint in South Asia and Africa - possibly for genetic reasons. Possibly due to sunshine. They are a couple of the theories. So within a few weeks the total figure will have a declining rate of increase. And it will still have a death toll that is only a small percentage of that for influenza.




_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

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Post #: 1612
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/21/2020 11:53:18 PM   
alanschu

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I would also point out that some of the "experts" have at least one agenda. More money for their own research, more money for their organizations, power, prestige, heck - even seeing their names in the paper or just being on television.


One thing I hesitate for this type of thinking, however, is that it's something that can be levied towards almost any individual or group. It's still important to point out a bias, but a way to temper this is to look for some sort of consensus as enough data points in aggregate start to mitigate the impact of the bias.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1613
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:01:29 AM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I would also point out that some of the "experts" have at least one agenda. More money for their own research, more money for their organizations, power, prestige, heck - even seeing their names in the paper or just being on television.


One thing I hesitate for this type of thinking, however, is that it's something that can be levied towards almost any individual or group. It's still important to point out a bias, but a way to temper this is to look for some sort of consensus as enough data points in aggregate start to mitigate the impact of the bias.


I pointed this out so people could understand why some may hype things to make it appear worse.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1614
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:01:47 AM   
Ian R

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

The NYT said a day ago that the US had tested 25,000 while New South Wales, Australia had tested 33,000. Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere and experiencing Summer, where the virus has gone "poof", not there.

On the BBC news ( a very trustworthy source) a few minutes ago they said Australia had just reported a rise of over 1000 cases, its biggest one-day increase. Doesn't sound like "poof" to me. Perhaps different regions of Australia are having different experiences. Melbourne is much more temperate than Darwin, for example.


The latest numbers on the Department of health website are:

"As at 6.30am on 21 March 2020, there have been 874 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 165 new cases since 6.30am yesterday. "

It is now 1057 hrs on the 22nd here, so I'll watch for the next update and confirm (or not) that report.



_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1615
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:21:05 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

The NYT said a day ago that the US had tested 25,000 while New South Wales, Australia had tested 33,000. Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere and experiencing Summer, where the virus has gone "poof", not there.

On the BBC news ( a very trustworthy source) a few minutes ago they said Australia had just reported a rise of over 1000 cases, its biggest one-day increase. Doesn't sound like "poof" to me. Perhaps different regions of Australia are having different experiences. Melbourne is much more temperate than Darwin, for example.


The latest numbers on the Department of health website are:

"As at 6.30am on 21 March 2020, there have been 874 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 165 new cases since 6.30am yesterday. "

It is now 1057 hrs on the 22nd here, so I'll watch for the next update and confirm (or not) that report.


Looks like BBC got the total cases instead of the daily increase. Maybe their research people are working from home ...
Thanks for the info!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 1616
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:35:46 AM   
Ian R

 

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It won't be surprising if it went over 1k yesterday - We have several cruise ships terminating in the last few days. The Ruby Princess docked with 2700 passengers, 1000 crew, and covid-19 on board. They are still being tested. Our overall number is still small enough that a single ship can have a significant effect.

Here is the bell curve- it spiked on St Patrick's day but has been flat since, up to the influx of returning travelers.



_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

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Post #: 1617
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:01:38 AM   
alanschu

 

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quote:

It is an unhappy statistic, but without context it doesn't help in analysis. It's worth reposting something canoerebel linked to understand it - the total figure will go up, because the virus is working its way through Europe and Nth America. It only has a marginal footprint in South Asia and Africa - possibly for genetic reasons. Possibly due to sunshine. They are a couple of the theories. So within a few weeks the total figure will have a declining rate of increase. And it will still have a death toll that is only a small percentage of that for influenza.


My point is that it's continuing to still increase and until we see a lower rate of acceleration, a number like 38,000 (a number you said would be an over estimate) is not very far away - if the delta in new deaths does not change, we will hit 38,000 in about 10 days. It is useful to explore current trend lines in this particular context because 10 days is not very far and in order for that number to be achievable, we would need to shift to a pretty aggressive decline. Since I'm only using actual data, my perspective is not dependent on any regions that are not already impacted.


Something that would have made me more open to thinking that this quick timetable might be possible the past few days was if Italy's new daily deaths had started to slow down like we've been hoping. But that hasn't started to happen yet. Their more aggressive quarantine status started to go into effect on March 9th so we're almost at 2 weeks. Hopefully it starts happening soon but there's also the additional conflation of health care services being saturated which seems like it is complicating things. My concern is that both the United Kingdom and Spain are starting to have anecdotal reports that their system is getting strained as well. Hopefully they can be more proactive learning from Italy (such as taking over empty hotels, in the case of Spain).

WHO numbers are lower than both Worldometers and John Hopkins University references, still at around 11,500. I don't know why that is. Unfortunately the WHO dashboard doesn't make it very easy to examine the death rates.


I do fully acknowledge and agree that death rates (to make sure I'm using the term more correctly, I'm referring to the percentage of cases that are fatal here) are higher when the health care system is strained beyond capacity. But most of the messaging (at least around here, Alberta Canada) has been around ensuring that health care systems are not strained by taking measures to mitigate the spread. China took measures more draconian than my province, and I would be surprised if anything the US and Europe did were more extreme.


EDIT: I'll see if I can find graphs of just Italy and China somewhere and try to analyze their trend lines, since both at least have "health care system capacity" issues. Hubei and Italy are both similar in population size as well.

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/22/2020 1:02:56 AM >

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Post #: 1618
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:10:44 AM   
RangerJoe


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Just remember, that China is a little more densely populated than Alberta. If you need some fresh air, just go visit Lake Louise.

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Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1619
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:41:27 AM   
Ian R

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

My point is that it's continuing to still increase and until we see a lower rate of acceleration, a number like 38,000 (a number you said would be an over estimate) is not very far away


If you like, double it to 76,000.

That is about 20% of global annual deaths caused by influenza. My original point remains the same.


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Ian R

(in reply to alanschu)
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