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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 2:07:28 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
We have a darned good feel for how active cases will resolve. We've seen it in many countries, including China and Korea but also places like Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Germany and a host of other countries that have begun to accumulate meaningful recoveries. Without exception, as the virus matures in a given population, the percentage of deaths drops dramatically and the percentage of recoveries rises dramatically. An example from Korea, below. Early on, the "death rate" approached 50%, but eventually dropped well below 10%. It should continue to drop down to the 1% to 3% (or thereabouts) figures being used.

There will be some outliers, positive and negative, but this is how the virus has progressed across the spectrum thus far.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1291
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 2:35:50 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15680
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I used to donate plasma. They don't want mine anymore nor blood from me. Unless they are mosquitoes . . .

Same thing happened to me after my melanoma. I was cleared of any recurrence after 10 years of monitoring but they still didn't want my blood.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1292
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 2:42:13 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8515
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I used to donate plasma. They don't want mine anymore nor blood from me. Unless they are mosquitoes . . .

Same thing happened to me after my melanoma. I was cleared of any recurrence after 10 years of monitoring but they still didn't want my blood.


You too with melanoma? I could show a picture of my right foot after the removal of the melanoma but Zorch might complain.

They do not want mine because I ate too much English beef.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1293
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 2:51:03 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15680
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

. note: Italy has done a much better job than the US at testing, so far.




This chart cannot be correct about 42.5% mortality. 2978 deaths is a bit over 8% or 35,713 known cases. I realize some of those cases are still not clear of the infection, but there is no indication that most of them will die.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1294
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 3:05:50 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15680
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I used to donate plasma. They don't want mine anymore nor blood from me. Unless they are mosquitoes . . .

Same thing happened to me after my melanoma. I was cleared of any recurrence after 10 years of monitoring but they still didn't want my blood.


You too with melanoma? I could show a picture of my right foot after the removal of the melanoma but Zorch might complain.

They do not want mine because I ate too much English beef.

I have a large hole in my back where they excised as much flesh as they could until they got to the spine. After my wife told me I had a spot that should be checked, I too had to nag the military doctor who cut it off initially and sent it in for testing. After hearing nothing for a couple of weeks, I asked him to expedite diagnosis and within a day he called me in with the bad news. Within a week I had preliminary visits with the Oncologist and Surgeon. Shortly after they removed the area they thought might be affected and grafted skin from my side to cover the hole. In follow up visits a couple more suspicious growths were cut off but they were small and not likely to have spread.

A somewhat comical consequence - last year during airport screening I was randomly picked for the full body scan that can see through clothing. Then they asked me what I had taped to my back. It took me a moment to realize that it was the scar tissue from the surgery. They were obviously going to send me to the body search room so to prove it was scar tissue I told the screener I would take off my shirt and he could see for himself. He thought about that for a couple of seconds before deciding he really didn't want to see that!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1295
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 3:10:15 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15680
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't know anybody affected and hope not to know anyone who passes away. But I may. But I don't expect this to reach close to seasonal flu mortality levels. Why? Read back through this thread. (Honestly, it's far too much for anybody to try to follow.) As noted many times, this is by no means a certainty yet. I think we'll know a lot more about how this operates, and how long it lasts, once Italy turns the corner. If that's already happened or about to, we're not going to reach seasonal flu levels. If that doesn't happen for a week or weeks, then revision of estimates will be necessary.

Sadly, Italy announced today that they had their highest death toll from the virus - 475. A doctor being interviewed about it pointed out that there is approximately a three week time lag from getting the virus to dying from it. The shut down measures in Italy were instituted 10 days ago so we don't see the effect of that yet.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1296
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 4:44:20 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15680
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
In better news, China had no new infections reported yesterday. Will be interesting to watch as workers return to their jobs there. I would expect that they will do temperature checks on each employee as they arrive at work. That was Singapore's key strategy - frequent temperature checks everywhere.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1297
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 4:56:21 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
Well if you follow the places that are on recovery this entire thing is a joke compare to other illness in the world.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1298
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 4:57:35 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
Completely over blown and as I said in a few weeks people will be "Oh!" what.

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1299
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 5:00:12 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
The draconian rights violations upset me more than the virus. Also so many people seem to have no problem with it. The swine flu was far more dangerous than this.

< Message edited by Scott_USN -- 3/19/2020 5:03:01 AM >

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1300
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 5:06:21 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
How many people actually died of Influenza (Seattle) and not Chinese Cornoavirus?

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1301
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 5:14:04 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
"SARS and MERS are in the same larger family of viruses, called coronaviruses. Both viruses spread through the respiratory track and can cause severe illness. And both SARS and MERS cn affect people and animals."

People act like this is new? It was around way before 2020.

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1302
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 7:52:58 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

‘Disproportional number’ of millennials are seriously ill from Coronavirus
Published: 4:14 PM CDT March 18, 2020

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/disproportional-number-of-millennials-are-seriously-ill-from-coronavirus/285-f0019bfa-b267-4c69-a902-8c2076296645


"There are concerning reports coming out of France and Italy about some young people getting seriously ill and very seriously ill in the ICUs,” said Dr. Deborah Birx, who is leading the White House Coronavirus task force.

In Texas, the Coronavirus patients who are in critical condition include: A Dallas-area woman in her 20s; a Dallas-area woman in her 30s; A man and woman in their 40s in Montgomery County; and a man in his 40s in Lewisville.

All of these cases were community spread and none had underlying conditions, according to reports."


This was from a White House press conference just trying to help the younger generation have some care for those they might spread the disease to by scaring them a bit. The figures on the young haven't changed since the beginning, as a very small percentage of 20s and 30s have severe or critical cases. Even in the 40s only 4.9% need hospitalisation at all.

Because so many are contracting this disease it's easy to use statistics to help alter human behaviour to suit needs at any one time in any one place.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/19/2020 7:54:59 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1303
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 8:00:48 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

"SARS and MERS are in the same larger family of viruses, called coronaviruses. Both viruses spread through the respiratory track and can cause severe illness. And both SARS and MERS cn affect people and animals."

People act like this is new? It was around way before 2020.


There have been studies tracing the first case (in humans) genetically to around mid-to-late October 2019. The other diseases you mention are different in specific ways that make them less threatening as a global pandemic. You can read a lot about that earlier in the thread.

You're posting a lot in ways that make you seem frustrated with the reaction. I see you seem to live in a small community in Alaska. It may seem very far from there, but it's very real here. I have a friend who has had it. Scary. Not like the flu. Not like anything else going around recently.

The closures are tough and will have difficult affects everywhere, but without them we've seen, as in Italy, that hospitals are overwhelmed and then mortality rates go up for even the younger patients. It is going to be hard for all, and especially in cities. We have no choice though, just gotta get through this time.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1304
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 10:12:46 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Baltimore mayor asks residents to stop shooting each other so Coronavirus patients can have hospital beds
March 18, 2020

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/baltimore-mayor-asks-residents-to-stop-shooting-each-other-so-coronavirus-patients-can-have-hospital-beds

"Baltimore Mayor Jack Young pleaded with his city to stop filling hospital beds with gunshot wound victims.

A mass shooting in a park on Tuesday left seven Baltimore residents hospitalized. In a statement about the shooting, Young said hospitals don't have room to tolerate gunshot victims as the coronavirus pandemic sweeps across the United States.

"We cannot clog up our hospitals and their beds with people that are being shot senselessly, because we’re going to need those beds for people who might be infected with the Coronavirus," Young said on Wednesday. "And it could be your mother, your grandmother, or one of your relatives. So take that into consideration.” "



_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1305
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 10:20:34 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 311
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

In better news, China had no new infections reported yesterday. Will be interesting to watch as workers return to their jobs there. I would expect that they will do temperature checks on each employee as they arrive at work. That was Singapore's key strategy - frequent temperature checks everywhere.


Unfortunately (assuming we are talking about the same figures) they were reporting no new domestic cases. They also reported 34 new cases amongst people who had recently returned to China. As we have seen elsewhere within a week or two those initial 'imported' cases start translating into domestic cases

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51955931

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1306
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 11:01:05 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
USA TODAY analysis: America's coronavirus 'curve' may be at its most dangerous point
19Mar '20

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/world/2020/03/19/coronavirus-curve-us-may-its-most-dangerous-point/2863553001/


"Soon, the United States will find out whether it's likely to be the next South Korea or Italy or even China when it comes to the acceleration of Coronavirus cases and deaths.

A data analysis by USA TODAY finds that, two weeks after the U.S. first entered into community transmission on March 3, America’s trajectory is trending toward Italy’s, where circumstances are dire. U.S. officials are sounding the alarm, urging Americans to heed what federal, state and local officials are asking of them in order to curtail the spread and dampen the impact of the virus on the U.S. population."

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 1307
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 11:39:44 AM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 803
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
I'll share a bit more about what is happening here in Lombardy (and in the rest of Italy), on the ground.

Yesterday Italy had the highest number of dead in a single day - 475 - surpassing even the record set by China. The number of cases jumped to 4,207 in 24 hours, with a total at 35,713 as of Wednesday.

A single, sobering symbol of the situation: "L'Eco di Bergamo" is the daily newspaper of Bergamo, near Milan and one of the hardest hit cities. Normally they publish a page of obituaries. On March, 13th the obituaries filled ten pages. I guess this is not "only a flu".

Going around, it It would seem that the Real World(tm) is not the internet; I saw a small increase of people in the streets but nothing comparable to the "Twitter Rebellions". More worrisome is the youths' attitude towards the virus. While the situation, here in Northern Italy, is not as bad as it is in other countries, many simply don't feel "really threatened" by this emergency. Of course if you are young you can get mild to no symptoms from this virus - but you will pass it around anyway, possibly starting with your parents and grandparents.

To be fair, I have to underline what I already wrote: inside supermarkets people of every age lose any sense of "social distance" and frantically blunder into each other all the time. If you are looking for a good place to legally catch the virus, well...

The government increased the already strict lockdown measures. There is a new "auto-certification" document that you have to download, print and compile; elderly people with no computers or printers must rely on the help of neighboroughs. Checks are more frequent. If you lie you get a fine and can get up to 3 years in jail; if you lie while being knowingly sick you can get up to 12 years. In a week, about 43,000 people have been denounced for "violating the quarantene".

But wait! Due to a loophole in the new lockdown decree, Italy was becoming a country of sport men! You see, if you exit your home they can stop you and ask where you are going, but "practicing physical exercise, like running" is allowed, as long as you do it alone and keep away to others. So, technically I couldn't walk to my daughter's condo except if she is sick, but I can run to her! Of course your deep purple complexion paired with a look at your belly will give away to the Police your "I used to run when I was 20 years younger" attire. As a result, the government is about to forbid any kind of physical exercise done outside your home.

Beware of a fake news: "The authorities can now reconstruct your movements by tracking your cellphone!!!1". Not true: this would be illegal even now. What authorities in Lombardy are now doing is to ask for "aggregate data" to the phone companies - i.e. data that show the movement fluxes of people, areas of heightened concentration and so on (the same data that apps like Google maps use to track traffic situations and gridlocks along your route). This allows them to evaluate the overall behaviour of the population during the quarantine while maintaining the privacy of the single.

Of course feel free for your paranoia to kick in anyway.

Also, note how this is different from what South Korea is doing (i.e., IIUC, use tracking data to reconstruct where a sick individual went before showing the first symptoms).

Banks and financial institutions are closed. Some of them operate their public area with a skeleton crew and accept visits on appointment basis only. You have to phone and check in advance if your bank offers this service - then they will evaluate if your need is "worth an appointment".

Funerals are forbidden since the beginning of the lockdown, but now the situation is becoming worse. Until a few days ago the body of the deceased was put in the coffin and brought to the cemetery. Now even this service is breaking down, and in some areas coffins were piling up in churches and other "holding areas". Now the Army is being mobilised: soldiers will take these coffins and bring them to crematory sites outside Lombardy.

Yesterday the North healthcare system officially collapsed, and new infected are now subjected to triage. It also turned out that, beside beds and medical supplies, there is another finite commodity: time. The hours that doctors and nurses can devote to the fight. Remember: being heroic actually helps no one. The fact that a percentage of medical personnel catched the virus causes fear, and fear, in turn increases the stress. Those on the frontlines have to rest and act with clear minds or costly mistakes will be made.

But there are good news too: with a Chinese-level effort, the empty spaces of the abandoned ex-Milan's Fair buildings are being turned in record time into the biggest ****ing ICU in the World. Silvio Berlusconi (yup, that Silvio Berlusconi) donated 10 millions Euro to kickstart the buying of IC beds and other medical supplies for this project. Donations from other people from all strata of the society followed. Other Italian regions are looking at how Lombardy managed to pull this stunt, and there are rumbles of similar initiatives being discussed.

Another frontline is, of course, the economy. The Italian government plans to fire a bazooka of 350 billions Euro to keep it alive (with the so called "Heal Italy" decree). To put thing in context, this is 19,6% of Italy's GDP; My accountant, who works for me but also for a number of other restaurants, is trying to understand the nuances and see what the practical effects will be for us. He is, it turn, working 24/7 and co-ordinating with the accountants of the people from whom we buy our supplies - because, of course, no one is working. I wrote off all the perishables I had stored, the rest is for more hopeful times.

My accountant made an interesting comparison: "Italy is like a body infected by the Coronavirus. We must fight to keep the small, medium and big business alive, on support, while we expel the infection. If enough business die, then we can survive the virus but with our economy essentially dead."

I visit my daughter around 7PM, we dine together and then we walk in the inner park until around 10PM. Her boyfriend is now interested in my "sea stories" - and I'm now seeing how easy it is to "embellish things"... You may have seen "heartwarming" videos of Italians singing together from balconies. This is, sadly, true, and I firmly put it among the afflictions caused by this plague.

Me... I'm learning. I now bring a second pair of surgical gloves with me, because it is easy for the first one to break after handling a lot of pointy things (with "pointy" I mean even the corners of food boxes). I go to the 24h market early in the morning (around 6:30 am) because it is the only way to avoid the crowd. But the most important thing I have learned is how following strict measures keeps others save, not me (if someone sneezes right on my face while he is outside even if he is sick, there is little I can do). Everybody is responsible for those around him while, in turn, they are responsible for your well-being. An interesting thing to wonder about, but it is true.

As usual, stay safe; and hold your government accountable. I see that other countries' governments are finally waking up and starting to realise that there is a bug thingie or such going around. Big words like "We are at war!", "I'm a war President!" and the evergreen "United We Will Prevail!" are being freely distributed, as everyone is trying to convince the World how he/she was the very first to become aware of the virus. Well... What I can say...? Welcome!]

Truth is: don't be gaslighted; social awareness it is part of your effort in this "war". The delays and feet-dragging I saw (and I'm seeing right now) in some countries are stunning. You don't want to catch this thing, but you also don't want for your country to catch it, believe me.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1308
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 11:47:46 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

I'll share a bit more about what is happening here in Lombardy (and in the rest of Italy), on the ground.

Yesterday Italy had the highest number of dead in a single day - 475 - surpassing even the record set by China. The number of cases jumped to 4,207 in 24 hours, with a total at 35,713 as of Wednesday.

A single, sobering symbol of the situation: "L'Eco di Bergamo" is the daily newspaper of Bergamo, near Milan and one of the hardest hit cities. Normally they publish a page of obituaries. On March, 13th the obituaries filled ten pages. I guess this is not "only a flu".

Going around, it It would seem that the Real World(tm) is not the internet; I saw a small increase of people in the streets but nothing comparable to the "Twitter Rebellions". More worrisome is the youths' attitude towards the virus. While the situation, here in Northern Italy, is not as bad as it is in other countries, many simply don't feel "really threatened" by this emergency. Of course if you are young you can get mild to no symptoms from this virus - but you will pass it around anyway, possibly starting with your parents and grandparents.

To be fair, I have to underline what I already wrote: inside supermarkets people of every age lose any sense of "social distance" and frantically blunder into each other all the time. If you are looking for a good place to legally catch the virus, well...

The government increased the already strict lockdown measures. There is a new "auto-certification" document that you have to download, print and compile; elderly people with no computers or printers must rely on the help of neighboroughs. Checks are more frequent. If you lie you get a fine and can get up to 3 years in jail; if you lie while being knowingly sick you can get up to 12 years. In a week, about 43,000 people have been denounced for "violating the quarantene".

But wait! Due to a loophole in the new lockdown decree, Italy was becoming a country of sport men! You see, if you exit your home they can stop you and ask where you are going, but "practicing physical exercise, like running" is allowed, as long as you do it alone and keep away to others. So, technically I couldn't walk to my daughter's condo except if she is sick, but I can run to her! Of course your deep purple complexion paired with a look at your belly will give away to the Police your "I used to run when I was 20 years younger" attire. As a result, the government is about to forbid any kind of physical exercise done outside your home.

Beware of a fake news: "The authorities can now reconstruct your movements by tracking your cellphone!!!1". Not true: this would be illegal even now. What authorities in Lombardy are now doing is to ask for "aggregate data" to the phone companies - i.e. data that show the movement fluxes of people, areas of heightened concentration and so on (the same data that apps like Google maps use to track traffic situations and gridlocks along your route). This allows them to evaluate the overall behaviour of the population during the quarantine while maintaining the privacy of the single.

Of course feel free for your paranoia to kick in anyway.

Also, note how this is different from what South Korea is doing (i.e., IIUC, use tracking data to reconstruct where a sick individual went before showing the first symptoms).

Banks and financial institutions are closed. Some of them operate their public area with a skeleton crew and accept visits on appointment basis only. You have to phone and check in advance if your bank offers this service - then they will evaluate if your need is "worth an appointment".

Funerals are forbidden since the beginning of the lockdown, but now the situation is becoming worse. Until a few days ago the body of the deceased was put in the coffin and brought to the cemetery. Now even this service is breaking down, and in some areas coffins were piling up in churches and other "holding areas". Now the Army is being mobilised: soldiers will take these coffins and bring them to crematory sites outside Lombardy.

Yesterday the North healthcare system officially collapsed, and new infected are now subjected to triage. It also turned out that, beside beds and medical supplies, there is another finite commodity: time. The hours that doctors and nurses can devote to the fight. Remember: being heroic actually helps no one. The fact that a percentage of medical personnel catched the virus causes fear, and fear, in turn increases the stress. Those on the frontlines have to rest and act with clear minds or costly mistakes will be made.

But there are good news too: with a Chinese-level effort, the empty spaces of the abandoned ex-Milan's Fair buildings are being turned in record time into the biggest ****ing ICU in the World. Silvio Berlusconi (yup, that Silvio Berlusconi) donated 10 millions Euro to kickstart the buying of IC beds and other medical supplies for this project. Donations from other people from all strata of the society followed. Other Italian regions are looking at how Lombardy managed to pull this stunt, and there are rumbles of similar initiatives being discussed.

Another frontline is, of course, the economy. The Italian government plans to fire a bazooka of 350 billions Euro to keep it alive (with the so called "Heal Italy" decree). To put thing in context, this is 19,6% of Italy's GDP; My accountant, who works for me but also for a number of other restaurants, is trying to understand the nuances and see what the practical effects will be for us. He is, it turn, working 24/7 and co-ordinating with the accountants of the people from whom we buy our supplies - because, of course, no one is working. I wrote off all the perishables I had stored, the rest is for more hopeful times.

My accountant made an interesting comparison: "Italy is like a body infected by the Coronavirus. We must fight to keep the small, medium and big business alive, on support, while we expel the infection. If enough business die, then we can survive the virus but with our economy essentially dead."

I visit my daughter around 7PM, we dine together and then we walk in the inner park until around 10PM. Her boyfriend is now interested in my "sea stories" - and I'm now seeing how easy it is to "embellish things"... You may have seen "heartwarming" videos of Italians singing together from balconies. This is, sadly, true, and I firmly put it among the afflictions caused by this plague.

Me... I'm learning. I now bring a second pair of surgical gloves with me, because it is easy for the first one to break after handling a lot of pointy things (with "pointy" I mean even the corners of food boxes). I go to the 24h market early in the morning (around 6:30 am) because it is the only way to avoid the crowd. But the most important thing I have learned is how following strict measures keeps others save, not me (if someone sneezes right on my face while he is outside even if he is sick, there is little I can do). Everybody is responsible for those around him while, in turn, they are responsible for your well-being. An interesting thing to wonder about, but it is true.

As usual, stay safe; and hold your government accountable. I see that other countries' governments are finally waking up and starting to realise that there is a bug thingie or such going around. Big words like "We are at war!", "I'm a war President!" and the evergreen "United We Will Prevail!" are being freely distributed, as everyone is trying to convince the World how he/she was the very first to become aware of the virus. Well... What I can say...? Welcome!]

Truth is: don't be gaslighted; social awareness it is part of your effort in this "war". The delays and feet-dragging I saw (and I'm seeing right now) in some countries are stunning. You don't want to catch this thing, but you also don't want for your country to catch it, believe me.


Thank you fo this. So good to hear and understand.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 1309
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 11:57:23 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2942
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

No politics please!


< Message edited by Erik Rutins -- 3/19/2020 2:16:21 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1310
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:32:19 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20038
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.


Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-police-not-turning-blind-eye-to-crime/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.




That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.


What is the basis for your claims about how the Philadelphia police handle crimes?


I live here. I have had both a professional and personal relationship with Police for over 20 years. What the top brass says publicly and what in reality happens are two very different things.

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1311
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:34:13 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

I'll share a bit more about what is happening here in Lombardy (and in the rest of Italy), on the ground.
....
...
..



Thank you.

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 1312
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:35:24 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
What ______________ says publicly and what in reality happens are two very different things.

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1313
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:36:46 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20038
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
Thought I would put this up:



Full peer reviewed study has been released by Didier Raoult MD, PhD https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view?usp=sharing.

After 6 days 100% of patients treated with HCQ + Azithromycin were virologically cured

p-value <.0001

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 1314
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:40:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I don't know if that'll bear out (Italy is the first key), but that's exactly the conclusion that was posited in here beginning about a week ago (the idea of two weeks +/- one or two with respect to the rising part on the curve). Posited without input from any source except the raw data.

I think the curve in the USA should take longer than Korea and Italy, however, because our country is so much geographically larger and most states are still pretty early in their curves. I wasn't expecting levelling off anywhere in the US for at least another week. Italy and Europe may be sooner (hopefully will be).


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

USA TODAY analysis: America's coronavirus 'curve' may be at its most dangerous point
19Mar '20

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/world/2020/03/19/coronavirus-curve-us-may-its-most-dangerous-point/2863553001/


"Soon, the United States will find out whether it's likely to be the next South Korea or Italy or even China when it comes to the acceleration of Coronavirus cases and deaths.

A data analysis by USA TODAY finds that, two weeks after the U.S. first entered into community transmission on March 3, America’s trajectory is trending toward Italy’s, where circumstances are dire. U.S. officials are sounding the alarm, urging Americans to heed what federal, state and local officials are asking of them in order to curtail the spread and dampen the impact of the virus on the U.S. population."



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/19/2020 1:03:16 PM >

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1315
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:41:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
...


I see that you are unable to control yourself.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 1316
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:43:30 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20038
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

I'll share a bit more about what is happening here in Lombardy (and in the rest of Italy), on the ground.



Fascinating and sad, thanks so much for sharing.

(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 1317
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:45:54 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't know if that'll bear out (Italy is the first key), but that's exactly the conclusion that was posited in here beginning about a week ago (the idea of two weeks +/- one or two with respect to the rising part on the curve). Posited without input from any source except the raw data.

I think the curve in the USA should take longer than Korea and Italy, however, because our country is so much geographically larger and most states are still pretty early in their curves. I'd give it another week.


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

USA TODAY analysis: America's coronavirus 'curve' may be at its most dangerous point
19Mar '20

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/world/2020/03/19/coronavirus-curve-us-may-its-most-dangerous-point/2863553001/


"Soon, the United States will find out whether it's likely to be the next South Korea or Italy or even China when it comes to the acceleration of Coronavirus cases and deaths.

A data analysis by USA TODAY finds that, two weeks after the U.S. first entered into community transmission on March 3, America’s trajectory is trending toward Italy’s, where circumstances are dire. U.S. officials are sounding the alarm, urging Americans to heed what federal, state and local officials are asking of them in order to curtail the spread and dampen the impact of the virus on the U.S. population."






War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1318
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:48:13 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20038
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
...


I see that you are unable to control yourself.




I wonder what a graph of China would look like? Weren't they originally saying no human transmission, and arresting people talking about the virus? Didn't they deny researchers and doctors from visiting early on (around December)?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1319
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:48:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
The government is gonna have a hard time trying to track me by a cell phone.*

*though I wouldn't mind if it did if I had one

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1320
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