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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:56:24 PM   
alanschu

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

It probably is due to more testing being done, at least I hope so.


Always the hard part of assessing yeah. How much increase (or decrease) comes from fluctuations in detection as opposed to transmission.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1261
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 10:01:00 PM   
MakeeLearn


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‘Disproportional number’ of millennials are seriously ill from Coronavirus
Published: 4:14 PM CDT March 18, 2020

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/disproportional-number-of-millennials-are-seriously-ill-from-coronavirus/285-f0019bfa-b267-4c69-a902-8c2076296645


"There are concerning reports coming out of France and Italy about some young people getting seriously ill and very seriously ill in the ICUs,” said Dr. Deborah Birx, who is leading the White House Coronavirus task force.

In Texas, the Coronavirus patients who are in critical condition include: A Dallas-area woman in her 20s; a Dallas-area woman in her 30s; A man and woman in their 40s in Montgomery County; and a man in his 40s in Lewisville.

All of these cases were community spread and none had underlying conditions, according to reports."

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(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1262
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 10:31:06 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8488
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I used to donate plasma. They don't want mine anymore nor blood from me. Unless they are mosquitoes . . .

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― Julia Child


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1263
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 10:36:48 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

‘Disproportional number’ of millennials are seriously ill from Coronavirus
Published: 4:14 PM CDT March 18, 2020

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/disproportional-number-of-millennials-are-seriously-ill-from-coronavirus/285-f0019bfa-b267-4c69-a902-8c2076296645


"There are concerning reports coming out of France and Italy about some young people getting seriously ill and very seriously ill in the ICUs,” said Dr. Deborah Birx, who is leading the White House Coronavirus task force.

In Texas, the Coronavirus patients who are in critical condition include: A Dallas-area woman in her 20s; a Dallas-area woman in her 30s; A man and woman in their 40s in Montgomery County; and a man in his 40s in Lewisville.

All of these cases were community spread and none had underlying conditions, according to reports."


Speculating here, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was data along these lines which prompted the shift in policy in the UK from 'carry on as normal but protect the vulnerable' to 'everybody batten down the hatches'. Whilst a look at the headline mortality figures might suggest the former could work, the wider data suggests that whilst younger/less vulnerable people may be unlikely to die they still require hospital treatment of varying degrees including critical care and in some cases ventilation. If those facilities become overwhelmed not only do those younger patients start dying but the mortality rate amongst the elderly/already ill rockets and you start seeing what you might call 'secondary deaths' of people who die of other conditions due to the health service being overwhelmed.

The more critical voices in the UK are suggesting that this data is not 'new' as our government and Dr. Birx are suggesting but was apparent back in February when the virus was confined to China. See for example https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-uk-expert-advice-wrong

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1264
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 10:50:48 PM   
alanschu

 

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Unsurprisingly US numbers are shooting up pretty aggressively.

1748 new cases yesterday and so far 2780 today. I suspect this is largely because testing is starting to ramp up.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 1265
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 10:51:15 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.


Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-police-not-turning-blind-eye-to-crime/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.




That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 3/18/2020 10:58:46 PM >

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1266
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 11:15:50 PM   
tolsdorff

 

Posts: 114
Joined: 12/12/2016
From: Breda, Holland
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Interesting perspective from an airline pilot about the effects on the air industry

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 1267
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 11:46:59 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8488
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People with blood type A may be more susceptible to coronavirus

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-pandemic-blood-type-susceptible-infection-china-study-a9409331.html

_____________________________

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to tolsdorff)
Post #: 1268
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 11:54:58 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 8077
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.


Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-police-not-turning-blind-eye-to-crime/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.




That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.


What is the basis for your claims about how the Philadelphia police handle crimes?

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 1269
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:21:26 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8488
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.


Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-police-not-turning-blind-eye-to-crime/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.




That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.


What is the basis for your claims about how the Philadelphia police handle crimes?


If you check post 1246, I believe that will provide the basis for such claims.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1270
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:31:53 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 8077
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.


Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-police-not-turning-blind-eye-to-crime/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.




That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.


What is the basis for your claims about how the Philadelphia police handle crimes?


If you check post 1246, I believe that will provide the basis for such claims.


RJ, Please read Outlaw's response in post #1254. Lowpe's Post #1246 is below; it does not support the allegations in Lowpe's #1265.



In Philadelphia Suburbs of PA is the hotspot in PA with 47 infected in the neighboring (2 miles from my home) county and 14 in my county. We were the first counties to be ordered by the Governor to shut down.... I can only imagine the economic suffering of businesses in the area especially small business.

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

My daughter in law is a Heart Surgeon from Vanderbilt, and just returned from Spain 7 days ago. She is optimistic for the outcome in the US with the global level of mild case percentage increasing daily with the mortality rate decreasing as treatments become understood. I gather there were initial medical treatments that worsened the condition spiking the mortality rate.

Stay safe, and practice your flu protocol...



< Message edited by Zorch -- 3/19/2020 12:34:19 AM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1271
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:40:43 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14502
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline
Interesting chart. Found here where there's lots more interesting stuff: http://tabletopwhale.com/index.html





Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1272
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:45:10 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 8077
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Interesting chart. Found here where there's lots more interesting stuff: http://tabletopwhale.com/index.html



Thank you for reminding me that I definitely do not want to contract any kind of virus...

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1273
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 12:57:12 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 2601
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Sydney
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

[snip]




Hold on. Not sure what you're getting at, [snip]




What I am getting at is that the flu has probably killed more people since last October than covid 19. US figures:

quote:

the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.


There's a Virus Spreading in U.S. That's Killed 10,000: The Flu

AS at 18 March, across the entire world there have been more than 190,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 7,700 deaths.

Please read that again:

Deaths from influenza in the USA alone: at least 12,000, possibly 30,000 ( I couldn't find a reliable world estimate).

Deaths from covid-19 n the entire world - 7,700

What we are seeing is a social media driven hyped up response by twitchy politicians. Death by influenza is socially acceptable, apparently.

I am not even going to put a link to some of the specialists who are saying that mass lockdowns, and isolations, are the wrong approach, and that we should trust in herd immunity, and carry on as usual, given that we do that with the flu, which by the way kills more people.


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Ian R

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1274
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:02:44 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 2601
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Sydney
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

snip


Apologies for not directly responding but please see my note to Obvert about flu deaths above.

_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1275
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:10:17 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14502
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline
Influenza is widespread and the mortality rate is about one tenth of one percent. This coronavirus is just getting warmed up. The mortality rate looks to be well above one percent. Heard an "expert" today (and I'm sure this expert knows way more than you or I) say he's looking at a worst case of 1.7 million dead in the US alone. The flu is around all year long (I've had it in the summer and it was awful) busy evolving the entire time. The exposure for this virus is a miniscule percentage of that for the flu at any given time, up til now. Things are accelerating here. China seems to have a handle on it and hopefully we will too.

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Currently fighting for the Emperor against AW1Steve. As of 10/20 it is 3/45.

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 1276
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:25:03 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14502
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline
From: https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week





Attachment (1)

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Currently fighting for the Emperor against AW1Steve. As of 10/20 it is 3/45.

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1277
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:27:30 AM   
RangerJoe


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Joined: 11/16/2015
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Avoid taking ibuprofen for COVID-19 symptoms: WHO

https://news.yahoo.com/avoid-taking-ibuprofen-covid-19-symptoms-202007508.html


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1278
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:29:49 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14502
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline
. note: Italy has done a much better job than the US at testing, so far.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by geofflambert -- 3/19/2020 1:31:35 AM >


_____________________________

Currently fighting for the Emperor against AW1Steve. As of 10/20 it is 3/45.

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Post #: 1279
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:37:33 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14502
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline
I think I said this before. To my knowledge I don't know anyone personally who died of the flu. I expect to know at least one person who will die of this, and I'm worried for myself, as a matter of fact. If that happens, you will know at least one person who dies of this.

_____________________________

Currently fighting for the Emperor against AW1Steve. As of 10/20 it is 3/45.

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Post #: 1280
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:37:49 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21097
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Congratulations, Geoff, on inserting that ridiculously flawed calculus into this thread. By that logic and method, the USA currently has 56.8% mortality. We're done for.

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1281
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:41:15 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21097
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I don't know anybody affected and hope not to know anyone who passes away. But I may. But I don't expect this to reach close to seasonal flu mortality levels. Why? Read back through this thread. (Honestly, it's far too much for anybody to try to follow.) As noted many times, this is by no means a certainty yet. I think we'll know a lot more about how this operates, and how long it lasts, once Italy turns the corner. If that's already happened or about to, we're not going to reach seasonal flu levels. If that doesn't happen for a week or weeks, then revision of estimates will be necessary.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1282
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:46:41 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14502
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Congratulations, Geoff, on inserting that ridiculously flawed calculus into this thread. By that logic and method, the USA currently has 56.8% mortality. We're done for.


Where are you getting your numbers from?

_____________________________

Currently fighting for the Emperor against AW1Steve. As of 10/20 it is 3/45.

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Post #: 1283
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:51:25 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21097
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Same way you did: I divided deaths by (total of deaths + recoveries).

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1284
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:54:25 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't know anybody affected and hope not to know anyone who passes away. But I may. But I don't expect this to reach close to seasonal flu mortality levels. Why? Read back through this thread. (Honestly, it's far too much for anybody to try to follow.) As noted many times, this is by no means a certainty yet. I think we'll know a lot more about how this operates, and how long it lasts, once Italy turns the corner. If that's already happened or about to, we're not going to reach seasonal flu levels. If that doesn't happen for a week or weeks, then revision of estimates will be necessary.


The thing I'm worried about is that, assuming we see Italy and things course correct and we are successful at limiting any resurgence of the disease, that low numbers will be hard to isolate between "it wasn't that big of a deal" versus "our measures really helped."

I'm anxious of benchmarks against influenza, because influenza numbers come with a very limited mitigation strategy (basically just flu vaccines).

If we even approach influenza deaths with the measures much of the world has taken, it seems to me that things would very likely have been much worse without the measures. Is there a threshold of severe impacts that makes it easier to say "yeah, we just over reacted?"

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1285
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:56:37 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21097
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Those are good questions, alanschu. The situation should clarify somewhat as we progress through this, but conclusive answers may not come until near the end or later.

(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1286
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:57:40 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 8077
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online
The more time I spend here, the more I regard the virus as a Turing Test to see if sentient life exists.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1287
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:58:56 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21097
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline


Actually, I'm really not sure what that means, but it sounds pithy and funny.

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1288
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 1:59:09 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Where are you getting your numbers from?


quote:


Same way you did: I divided deaths by (total of deaths + recoveries).


I do think that there is some value in isolating the numbers in this way because we don't *know* how active cases will resolve, it does require there to have been some time to make sure that those numbers get larger and we have a better idea on typical paths the illness can take. I feel China is the only nation that can be used as a measuring stick here, and it's still going to probably be a small overestimate as there are probably some people that just didn't know and healed up before awareness escalated.


That said, given Italy compared to other parts of the world, I *do* feel that examining their numbers could tip higher given that they started to have issues with rationing care. Would be interesting to see what general mortality is like as a situation like that would likely mean that other illness are being triaged as well.

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1289
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/19/2020 2:02:12 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14502
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline
Forget the US numbers so far, they are worthless.




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Currently fighting for the Emperor against AW1Steve. As of 10/20 it is 3/45.

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Post #: 1290
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