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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:17:50 PM   
Banzan

 

Posts: 288
Joined: 3/13/2010
From: Bremen, Germany
Status: offline
In Germany, the small town of Mitterteich was the first to enact a full lockdown/curfew(?) with only exceptions for emergeny shopping and medical aid/help and going/leaving work. Most of us expect this to happen to many citys/towns, too. Nearly the entire car industry has already stopped production or will stop between Friday and Sunday. Airbus is still producing, but may stop soon due part shortages (this is a major problem for large parts of the industry).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1231
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:24:00 PM   
Kursk1943


Posts: 362
Joined: 3/15/2014
From: Bavaria in Southern Germany
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kursk1943

...and the tone becomes rougher...


Kursk1943 - The Death rate in Germany is phenomenally low. Only 27 out of 11,302 cases, or 0.2%. That is orders of magnitude lower than Italy. Any insights you can share with us on that? My earlier chart showed that Germany has the highest number of Critical Care Beds per person in Europe (or at least of those countries listed), so that is probably part of it, but still - that percentage is amazing!


The experts here are asking themselves the same questions and have some possible explanations, but they really are sure not about it:
1. the percentage of older people is higher in Italy than in Germany
2. the speed of infection was a lot higher, so the hospitals in Italy reached their limits very fast, not the case in Germany
3. the virus exists longer in Italy than in Germany
4. strong possibility that many cases in Italy were not detected in the beginning, Germany has the advantage of a "late starter" and profits from Italy's experience.
5. differences in the quality of treatment
6. differences in reporting and counting

Once again, nobody knows for sure, mostly speculations, so not really helpful. Our experts expect that our death rate will become aligned to the Italian one and will rise significantly.
Since Monday e have the same limitations in Germany as in Italy besides a curfew. I expect a curfew not later than end of this week in Germany.

_____________________________

Serenity and humility and kindness and benevolence

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1232
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:24:14 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?



It's very important. Do not be a island. Do not get STUCK in a bad thought/emotion. It's OK to feel down but dont set up camp there.



Ask for a helping hand and give a helping hand.





Attachment (1)

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1233
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:25:11 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?


It's not gunna make a filth-and-foul-foul-filth bit of difference!!!


(Totally in jest)


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1234
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:27:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 1235
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:34:17 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15435
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MakeeLearn, that's one weird headline (two posts above). In the first place, nobody thinks "only" the elderly can die. In the second, the table in the story shows that the elderly are indeed disproportionately affected, pretty much discrediting whatever point the writer was trying to make.



Exactly what I was gleaning from the article as I read it. There is probably a "Life Style" connection to most of the younger deaths.

Depends on your viewpoint. My 44 year old son has an autoimmune disorder that overreacts to allergens, making him at severe risk of dying from contact with some things. I strongly suspect he would also be at risk from an over-reaction of his immune system to the virus. My concern with the virus is more about his survival than mine, even though I am in the old fart group.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1236
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:41:34 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline
Report from Bishop California:

So far no reported cases in Inyo County.

Our Governor is shutting down Restaurants, theatres, etc. similar to what most other states are doing.

At the college I work at, we are moving all classes on-line for student/faculty safety. We are having all employees 60+ years of age or with compromised health work from home or, in the case of employees like Grounds workers or custodial, they are just paid to stay home.

Stores still have chow and TP.

Folks seem to be doing a good job of keeping their 6ft distance and doing the elbow-tap thing in place of handshakes.

At my lodge meeting last night we kept our distance and during the business meeting, and we discussed future meetings. The agreement was to punt for a few weeks and see how things look in April.

So NW of town is a place called the Buttermilks - a rock-climbing haven for those that partake of such things. The big "local" complaint is that there are about 100 cars out there as many of the "younger crowd" from LA and other out-of-town locations are using their "Stay home" demands from work to hang out together and party. I think there are still large portions of the younger adults that aren't really worried about COVID-19. In truth, recalling my younger days and the fact that I often kept my head up my bumm whole boozing it and acting like a rebel without a clue, I kind of understand the mindset. I apparently have grown a tad more cautious and considerate of others as I've aged.

Addendum - we have Drive-In Testing @ Bishop.

https://www.bloggingbishop.com/blog/2020/3/17/kibskboc-nih-drive-in-testing

< Message edited by durnedwolf -- 3/18/2020 6:54:32 PM >


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 1237
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:49:49 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8206
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?



It's very important. Do not be a island. Do not get STUCK in a bad thought/emotion. It's OK to feel down but dont set up camp there.



Ask for a helping hand and give a helping hand.






The soldier that he slapped in Sicily had a temperature of 104 F and was suffering from malaria. Unknown to Patton at the time, probably the soldier and the medical staff as well.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1238
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:52:01 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8206
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.


Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.


That is what I mean about the death rate and how it is counted. If it was broken down, people might be able to understand the risks better and the medical staff might be able to treat it better. When it is father along, maybe someone will check the numbers on this.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1239
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:07:35 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?



It's very important. Do not be a island. Do not get STUCK in a bad thought/emotion. It's OK to feel down but dont set up camp there.



Ask for a helping hand and give a helping hand.






The soldier that he slapped in Sicily had a temperature of 104 F and was suffering from malaria. Unknown to Patton at the time, probably the soldier and the medical staff as well.


Seems to have a lot to do with his attitude. He did not have a "Do or Die" mind set. The is no time out for I dont feel good.

"In a 1970 interview withthe South Bend Tribune, Kuhl remembered that when Patton entered the hospital tent, "all the soldiers jumped to attention except me. I was suffering from battle fatigue and just didn't know what to do."

After asking each soldier what his injury was, Patton questioned Kuhl about why he had not stood and saluted. Kuhl told The Tribune, "I told him my nerves were shot and, of course, I didn't feel like getting up to salute him.""

This took place in a tent of torn bodies.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/18/2020 7:09:40 PM >


_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1240
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:08:35 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15435
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."

OK, some local colour then. First some context: Winnipeg had NO detected COVID-19 cases until last weekend when one person with severe symptoms reported to hospital. There are now eight detected cases, all of them travelers or close contacts of travelers. The province has shut down all schools and venues holding 50 or more persons. The Prime Minister has begun closing borders. Widespread testing is not available but has been gearing up for several weeks and should be OK soon.

So I went to Costco yesterday to get some groceries. Had to go out anyway to drop off a birthday present to one of the grandchildren who adopted me.
The store was far less busy than usual - say 50% of a normal Tuesday afternoon. Parking lot was usable without the frustration of too many cars and too few spaces. On entry a lady wiped down the handlebar of my cart with a cloth, this time covering much more of the surface than last time but still not doing a full-wrap-around. My hands, which had already touched the cart handle, returned to that handle with no offer of a wipe - undoing any good that the handle wipe might have done.
There was toilet paper, not a big stack but half a pallet or so. I am told that the store restricted people to one bundle a person last week. I asked about bleach and the employee said it was sold out. No need to ask about Clorox wipes. There was plenty of food of all kinds, including fresh produce. I saw one lady rapidly going up and down aisles scanning the shelves for something and obviously not finding. I suspect she wanted disinfectant of some kind. That was the only sign of stress that I saw.
On checkout they asked me how I was (normally not done) and if I found everything I was looking for. I mentioned how small the cashier lines were and she mentioned that last week the place was jammed with frantic shoppers buying stuff for their expected quarantine. So a new Beatitude: The Nervous Nellies shall inherit the store stock!
Other than that, my biggest disappointments are that I will not be able to see my niece (a professional dancer) perform in a production at a local theatre nor take my grandsons to the movies during the shutdowns here.
Questions?


< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 3/18/2020 7:10:52 PM >


_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1241
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:21:06 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8206
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."

OK, some local colour then. First some context: Winnipeg had NO detected COVID-19 cases until last weekend when one person with severe symptoms reported to hospital. There are now eight detected cases, all of them travelers or close contacts of travelers. The province has shut down all schools and venues holding 50 or more persons. The Prime Minister has begun closing borders. Widespread testing is not available but has been gearing up for several weeks and should be OK soon.

So I went to Costco yesterday to get some groceries. Had to go out anyway to drop off a birthday present to one of the grandchildren who adopted me.
The store was far less busy than usual - say 50% of a normal Tuesday afternoon. Parking lot was usable without the frustration of too many cars and too few spaces. On entry a lady wiped down the handlebar of my cart with a cloth, this time covering much more of the surface than last time but still not doing a full-wrap-around. My hands, which had already touched the cart handle, returned to that handle with no offer of a wipe - undoing any good that the handle wipe might have done.
There was toilet paper, not a big stack but half a pallet or so. I am told that the store restricted people to one bundle a person last week. I asked about bleach and the employee said it was sold out. No need to ask about Clorox wipes. There was plenty of food of all kinds, including fresh produce. I saw one lady rapidly going up and down aisles scanning the shelves for something and obviously not finding. I suspect she wanted disinfectant of some kind. That was the only sign of stress that I saw.
On checkout they asked me how I was (normally not done) and if I found everything I was looking for. I mentioned how small the cashier lines were and she mentioned that last week the place was jammed with frantic shoppers buying stuff for their expected quarantine. So a new Beatitude: The Nervous Nellies shall inherit the store stock!
Other than that, my biggest disappointments are that I will not be able to see my niece (a professional dancer) perform in a production at a local theatre nor take my grandsons to the movies during the shutdowns here.
Questions?



Just one about the niece, is the production canceled or just postponed? Maybe if they taped a rehearsal that could be seen and donations accepted.

Also be grateful for the Red River diversion around Winnipeg for the flooding. South of you, Grand Forks area and Fargo/Moorehead didn't have those the last that I hear. Can you imagine having sandbag crews with the Corona virus going around?

The reason why the Nellies are Nervous is they have no armour and the allied planes have good machine guns!

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1242
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:33:07 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15435
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."

OK, some local colour then. First some context: Winnipeg had NO detected COVID-19 cases until last weekend when one person with severe symptoms reported to hospital. There are now eight detected cases, all of them travelers or close contacts of travelers. The province has shut down all schools and venues holding 50 or more persons. The Prime Minister has begun closing borders. Widespread testing is not available but has been gearing up for several weeks and should be OK soon.

So I went to Costco yesterday to get some groceries. Had to go out anyway to drop off a birthday present to one of the grandchildren who adopted me.
The store was far less busy than usual - say 50% of a normal Tuesday afternoon. Parking lot was usable without the frustration of too many cars and too few spaces. On entry a lady wiped down the handlebar of my cart with a cloth, this time covering much more of the surface than last time but still not doing a full-wrap-around. My hands, which had already touched the cart handle, returned to that handle with no offer of a wipe - undoing any good that the handle wipe might have done.
There was toilet paper, not a big stack but half a pallet or so. I am told that the store restricted people to one bundle a person last week. I asked about bleach and the employee said it was sold out. No need to ask about Clorox wipes. There was plenty of food of all kinds, including fresh produce. I saw one lady rapidly going up and down aisles scanning the shelves for something and obviously not finding. I suspect she wanted disinfectant of some kind. That was the only sign of stress that I saw.
On checkout they asked me how I was (normally not done) and if I found everything I was looking for. I mentioned how small the cashier lines were and she mentioned that last week the place was jammed with frantic shoppers buying stuff for their expected quarantine. So a new Beatitude: The Nervous Nellies shall inherit the store stock!
Other than that, my biggest disappointments are that I will not be able to see my niece (a professional dancer) perform in a production at a local theatre nor take my grandsons to the movies during the shutdowns here.
Questions?



Just one about the niece, is the production canceled or just postponed? Maybe if they taped a rehearsal that could be seen and donations accepted.

Also be grateful for the Red River diversion around Winnipeg for the flooding. South of you, Grand Forks area and Fargo/Moorehead didn't have those the last that I hear. Can you imagine having sandbag crews with the Corona virus going around?

The reason why the Nellies are Nervous is they have no armour and the allied planes have good machine guns!

Some venues were trying things like only allowing half their seats to be occupied to improve social distancing. My understanding of the subsequent government bans is that they mean the venues must be shuttered, as much to protect the performers and theatre staff as the audience. Entertainment is not regarded as an essential industry (guess they have never been introduced to WITP-AE)! The production ran about a third of its planned run and I suppose it might resume when life returns to the theater. I am sure there will be video of the production somewhere - it was very well reviewed after its first performances. The stage performance is based on the book "By Grand Central Station" by Canadian poet Elizabeth Smart.


_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1243
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:38:10 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 307
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
Interesting brief paper from demographic sociologists at the University of Oxford.

Probably most interesting in terms of the suggestion that one of the reasons Italy is suffering so badly may be due to specific demographic and cultural factors.

The numbers of predicted deaths in their graphs are pretty frightening although I'd imagine that if you asked an epidemiologist about how they have worked them out (literally just assuming a 40% proportion of people infected over time and then applying the mortality statistics from Italy) the method is not particularly robust.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00dfe3677493faa421fc2ea38e295

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1244
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:50:48 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15435
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Interesting brief paper from demographic sociologists at the University of Oxford.

Probably most interesting in terms of the suggestion that one of the reasons Italy is suffering so badly may be due to specific demographic and cultural factors.

The numbers of predicted deaths in their graphs are pretty frightening although I'd imagine that if you asked an epidemiologist about how they have worked them out (literally just assuming a 40% proportion of people infected over time and then applying the mortality statistics from Italy) the method is not particularly robust.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00dfe3677493faa421fc2ea38e295

Interesting paper. I knew that European countries have been concerned about their low birth rates but did not realize that Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world. Given that and the extended family model in their culture, that explains a good part of why it hit so hard. The other is that the government dithered on shutdowns because (AFAIK) no other European country had taken such drastic measures. The just did not know how vulnerable they were and how important it was to clamp down early. As Canoerebel has mentioned many times, our side of the ocean gained valuable insight by watching what was happening there. May their nightmare soon be over ...

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 1245
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:53:11 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19775
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
In Philadelphia Suburbs of PA is the hotspot in PA with 47 infected in the neighboring (2 miles from my home) county and 14 in my county. We were the first counties to be ordered by the Governor to shut down.... I can only imagine the economic suffering of businesses in the area especially small business.

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

My daughter in law is a Heart Surgeon from Vanderbilt, and just returned from Spain 7 days ago. She is optimistic for the outcome in the US with the global level of mild case percentage increasing daily with the mortality rate decreasing as treatments become understood. I gather there were initial medical treatments that worsened the condition spiking the mortality rate.

Stay safe, and practice your flu protocol...




(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 1246
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 7:57:12 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19775
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.


Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.


That is what I mean about the death rate and how it is counted. If it was broken down, people might be able to understand the risks better and the medical staff might be able to treat it better. When it is father along, maybe someone will check the numbers on this.


This is called co-morbidity. As I understand of the first 2500 deaths in Italy, the average co-morbidity rate was 2.3, with close to 75% of victims being male.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1247
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 8:06:44 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15435
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia Suburbs of PA is the hotspot in PA with 47 infected in the neighboring (2 miles from my home) county and 14 in my county. We were the first counties to be ordered by the Governor to shut down.... I can only imagine the economic suffering of businesses in the area especially small business.

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

My daughter in law is a Heart Surgeon from Vanderbilt, and just returned from Spain 7 days ago. She is optimistic for the outcome in the US with the global level of mild case percentage increasing daily with the mortality rate decreasing as treatments become understood. I gather there were initial medical treatments that worsened the condition spiking the mortality rate.

Stay safe, and practice your flu protocol...

I suspect there will not be many clients for those prostitutes, and vice versa!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 1248
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 8:14:15 PM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Italy's numbers are updated on the Worldometers website - deaths spike to 475, up considerably over the past three days (which were steady at around 350).


Worldometers is also reporting a big uptick in new cases today as well, eclipsing the 4k mark. At best it means that the slope is still increasing and hopefully declining.

I think at worst it means that the day to day updates have some noise and we may still be at a steady rate of increase for new incidents.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1249
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 8:32:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Thanks, Alanschu. Here's hoping for good news tomorrow!

(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1250
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 8:33:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Regarding these "catch and release" programs, I assume there will be some latitude to hold those who the authorities have reason to believe pose additional threats to the community. I hope so!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1251
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 8:46:30 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Interesting brief paper from demographic sociologists at the University of Oxford.

Probably most interesting in terms of the suggestion that one of the reasons Italy is suffering so badly may be due to specific demographic and cultural factors.

The numbers of predicted deaths in their graphs are pretty frightening although I'd imagine that if you asked an epidemiologist about how they have worked them out (literally just assuming a 40% proportion of people infected over time and then applying the mortality statistics from Italy) the method is not particularly robust.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00dfe3677493faa421fc2ea38e295


This is very interesting. A key piece taken out to compare different countries. Including the UK which has a disproportionate level of cases in London, which is quite low in percentage of vulnerable age groups.

Population age structure may explain the remarkable variation in fatalities across countries and why countries such as Italy are especially vulnerable. The deluge of critical and fatal COVID-19 cases in Italy was unexpected given the health and wealth of the affected region. Italy is one of the oldest populations in the world with 23.3% its population over age 65, compared to 12% in China .Italy is also a country characterized by extensive intergenerational contacts which are supported by a high degree of residential proximity between adult children and their parents ...

These intergenerational interactions, co-residence, and commuting patterns may have accelerated the outbreak in Italy through social networks that increased the proximity of elderly to initial cases.

The Korean outbreak, while large, was concentrated amongst the young recruits of the Schincheonji religious group, with only 3.3% of cases falling into the very vulnerable >80 group.

Singapore is notable with zero deaths thus far, but have had only one confirmed case over 80 and only 10/200 cases above age 70.

COVID-19 transmission chains that begin in younger populations may have a low number of severe cases and thus go longer undetected, with countries thereby slow to raise the alarm. The low case fatality rate in England thus far (0.01%) may reflect the relatively young age structure of populations impacted to date, including Greater London, which has a small fraction of residents over age 65 compared to more rural areas.

COVID-19 was only detected in King County, Washington once it reached the Life Care Centre in Kirkland, where 19 out of 22 deaths occurred, despite estimates based on virus genetic sequences suggesting it circulated for several weeks prior. Once community transmission is established, countries that have a high level of intergenerational contacts and co-residence may see faster transmission to high-fatality age groups as seen in Italy.



< Message edited by obvert -- 3/18/2020 8:49:34 PM >


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Post #: 1252
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:07:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I just read a New York Times story about five prominent people who are virus "skeptics" in some form or fashion. Some of the claims/thoughts are similar to what I've brought up in here, others aren't. It felt kind of weird reading the story.

I don't listen to radio talk shows and the information I'm putting forward is self-generated, for better and worse. These are my thoughts, none of them regurgitated from other sources. If there is any merit to them it's because I'm not plugged into the media or social media, so I'm not stirred up beyond all recognition.

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Post #: 1253
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:10:36 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8206
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quote:

the

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Italy's numbers are updated on the Worldometers website - deaths spike to 475, up considerably over the past three days (which were steady at around 350).


Worldometers is also reporting a big uptick in new cases today as well, eclipsing the 4k mark. At best it means that the slope is still increasing and hopefully declining.

I think at worst it means that the day to day updates have some noise and we may still be at a steady rate of increase for new incidents.


It probably is due to more testing being done, at least I hope so.

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Post #: 1254
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:18:06 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7962
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.


Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-police-not-turning-blind-eye-to-crime/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.


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Post #: 1255
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:22:09 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1

_____________________________

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Post #: 1256
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:30:54 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8206
Joined: 11/16/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1


That is very good news since the plasma treatment needs to find these people who have had the virus, hopefully they can and will donate plasma.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1257
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:40:01 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
NYSE to temporarily close floor, move to electronic trading after positive Coronavirus tests

Mar 18 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/nyse-to-temporarily-close-trading-floor-move-to-electronic-trading-because-of-coronavirus.html

" The New York Stock Exchange said starting March 23, it will temporarily close its historic trading floor and move fully to electronic trading.

The move came after two people tested positive for Coronavirus infection at screenings it had set up this week.

The entrants were stopped at the medical screenings at the Big Board.

This is the first time the physical trading floor of the Big Board has ever shut independently while electronic trading continues."

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Post #: 1258
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:49:35 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1


That is very good news since the plasma treatment needs to find these people who have had the virus, hopefully they can and will donate plasma.


What a great way for some of the non-boomers to make some coin. They can sell their plasma for some extra coin. Heaven knows they'll need the money while the economy shrivels...


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I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1259
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 9:52:11 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1


That is very good news since the plasma treatment needs to find these people who have had the virus, hopefully they can and will donate plasma.


Great point! I hadn't put two and two together there. That is a huge connection!

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