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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:48:33 PM   
Kursk1943


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...and the tone becomes rougher...

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Post #: 1201
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:58:39 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kursk1943

...and the tone becomes rougher...


Kursk1943 - The Death rate in Germany is phenomenally low. Only 27 out of 11,302 cases, or 0.2%. That is orders of magnitude lower than Italy. Any insights you can share with us on that? My earlier chart showed that Germany has the highest number of Critical Care Beds per person in Europe (or at least of those countries listed), so that is probably part of it, but still - that percentage is amazing!

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Post #: 1202
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:03:26 PM   
RangerJoe


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Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 3/18/2020 4:05:28 PM >


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Post #: 1203
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:07:29 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 17881
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From: Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
https://www.rt.com/business/482814-china-business-resumes-coronavirus/


"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."


This puzzles me. By all accounts, the "heavy handed" lockdown measures used in China have had a significant effect on "taming" the virus spread in that country. If/when the majority of people start returning to work that would have to mean a great easing of the lockdown measures in place. The virus is not gone from China by any means. Only a tiny percentage of their population has been reported as having it.

My question for the group: Why does anyone expect the virus spread to not accelerate again when those lockdown measures are relaxed? I have to be missing some significant information because everything I've seen makes me expect the spread to pick back up again.

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"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

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Post #: 1204
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:10:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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Right now, the main objective is to "dampen the curve" so that hospitals won't be overwhelmed by a sudden onslaught of cases. The thinking is that stretching the spread gradually over a longer period is better than a massive spike.

As far as later iterations or outbreaks, the thinking is that by then there will be much more knowledge and additional countermeasures that will help deal with it.

IE, we'd rather deal with 20,000 cases today and another 20,000 much later than 40,000 today and none later.

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Post #: 1205
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:12:15 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right now, the main objective is to "dampen the curve" so that hospitals won't be overwhelmed by a sudden onslaught of cases. The thinking is that stretching the spread gradually over a longer period is better than a massive spike.

As far as later iterations or outbreaks, the thinking is that by then there will be much more knowledge and additional countermeasures that will help deal with it.

IE, we'd rather deal with 20,000 cases today and another 20,000 much later than 40,000 today and none later.



I agree. Take one day at a time, it is rough when two or more hit you all at once.

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Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

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Post #: 1206
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:13:03 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ian, I regret you are disappointed! If you find this thread alarmist, don't go to the General Forum thread on coronavirus.

warspite1

There is one alarmist shock jock on the GD thread. One person on this thread quoted 7% mortality too - though he wouldn't respond when asked where that number came from. So I think most people on both threads are just average Joe's wanting to understand what is going on and, quite rightly and understandably, just seeking information.


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Post #: 1207
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:21:28 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

There is one alarmist shock jock on the GD thread. One person on this thread quoted 7% mortality too - though he wouldn't respond when asked where that number came from. So I think most people on both threads are just average Joe's wanting to understand what is going on and, quite rightly and understandably, just seeking information.



Italy is at 7.9% today (2503 of 31506)

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Post #: 1208
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:30:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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Lord have mercy, don't use that kind of math!

First, there are a zillion unreported cases, making the number of actual cases (your denominator) radically under-reported while, in contrast, the deaths are a pretty certain quantity. Italy may end up with a higher rate than many other countries, but that method is highly inaccurate until final, reliable totals come in at some distant point in the future. Secondly, as the virus matures and progresses, the number of recoveries outstrip deaths more and more. Eventually, the mortality rate settles at some much lower point, currently projected by most estimates in the range of 3% down to something below 1%.





< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/18/2020 4:35:54 PM >

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Post #: 1209
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:38:32 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lord have mercy, don't use that kind of math!

First, there are a zillion unreported cases, making the number of actual cases (your denominator) radically under-reported while, in contrast, the deaths are a pretty certain quantity. Italy may end up with a higher rate than many other countries, but that method is highly inaccurate until final, reliable totals come in at some distant point in the future. Secondly, as the virus matures and progresses, the number of recoveries outstrip deaths more and more. Eventually, the mortality rate settles at some much lower point, currently projected by most estimates in the range of 3% down to something below 1%.






I'm just answering the question. "Where did 7% come from?"

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Post #: 1210
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:39:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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Oh.

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Post #: 1211
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:42:33 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oh.







Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1212
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:43:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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"Jane, you ignorant slut."

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Post #: 1213
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:47:39 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online
"What is all this fuss I hear about the Corona Beer virus? Why are they shutting down the whole country when people could just stop drinking that beer??"

"Ummmm, it's the Coronavirus and you don't get it from beer...."

"Oh"

"Nevermind"

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Post #: 1214
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:57:49 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 17881
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
https://www.rt.com/business/482814-china-business-resumes-coronavirus/


"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."


This puzzles me. By all accounts, the "heavy handed" lockdown measures used in China have had a significant effect on "taming" the virus spread in that country. If/when the majority of people start returning to work that would have to mean a great easing of the lockdown measures in place. The virus is not gone from China by any means. Only a tiny percentage of their population has been reported as having it.

My question for the group: Why does anyone expect the virus spread to not accelerate again when those lockdown measures are relaxed? I have to be missing some significant information because everything I've seen makes me expect the spread to pick back up again.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right now, the main objective is to "dampen the curve" so that hospitals won't be overwhelmed by a sudden onslaught of cases. The thinking is that stretching the spread gradually over a longer period is better than a massive spike.

As far as later iterations or outbreaks, the thinking is that by then there will be much more knowledge and additional countermeasures that will help deal with it.

IE, we'd rather deal with 20,000 cases today and another 20,000 much later than 40,000 today and none later.


I fully understand the objective of “dampening the curve” and how urgent it is, even if I do wonder if we can dampen it enough to prevent the hospital ICU and ventilator resources from being overwhelmed. The “heavy handed” containment measures that China implemented to flatten the curve are the ONLY reason the infection rate is not still increasing there. If they remove those measures to allow the country to get back to business, there is nothing to prevent the infection rate from spiking again short of a vaccine or a mutation that seriously weakens the virus.

We’ve read that until a vaccine is developed, tested, produced, and administered, there is no way to stop the virus until we reach “herd immunity”. That’s the point where 40% - 70% of a given population has been infected and developed resistance or immunity to being infected again. China has reported around 82K infections so far. Assuming those numbers might be slightly under reported, let’s multiply that number x12. That would be 1 million Chinese residents infected. That is still only 0.07% if the 1.4 billion Chinese residents. There is still a loooooong way to go before they would reach the lowest threshold for herd immunity of 40%.

I have to be missing some critical information that allows others to think China is ready to get back to business since all my information says they can’t do that without relaxing their containment measures and they can’t do that without the infection rate increasing again.

Please help me understand what I’m missing.


_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1215
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:00:59 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 34600
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From: Vermont, USA
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I think this describes why we have to act now well:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/


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Director of Product Development




For official support, please use our Help Desk: http://www.matrixgames.com/helpdesk/

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Post #: 1216
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:01:32 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

For those unable to read each post in this tome, please send a case of Jack Daniels to Makee Learn c/o General Delivery, Goosebump, Tennessee. Sedation.



It's a rainy day. I do appreciate all alcohol(I don't drink, but it's got other uses), dry beans, books, your good gold or your "scrap gold", women folk, domesticated fowl,....etc. etc.

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Post #: 1217
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:02:38 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 34600
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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica
I fully understand the objective of “dampening the curve” and how urgent it is, even if I do wonder if we can dampen it enough to prevent the hospital ICU and ventilator resources from being overwhelmed.


I've been wondering the same. These sites may be of interest:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/upshot/hospital-bed-shortages-coronavirus.html

https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals

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Director of Product Development




For official support, please use our Help Desk: http://www.matrixgames.com/helpdesk/

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Post #: 1218
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:04:54 PM   
MakeeLearn


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If the Coronavirus puts a lot into R&D then the world will need as many veterans of the virus as possible.

Other words, too much isolation may not be good for returns of this viral attack.

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Post #: 1219
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:10:54 PM   
RangerJoe


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The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.

As far as the person on the other thread reporting such a high death rate in the United States, he is the type of person who causes the panic. He is part of the problem and not part of the solution. He has been informed of the proper way to look at it and he refuses to change.

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Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 1220
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:18:55 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

For those unable to read each post in this tome, please send a case of Jack Daniels to Makee Learn c/o General Delivery, Goosebump, Tennessee. Sedation.


... and a case of Bulleit Rye over here. Also sedation.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1221
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:28:33 PM   
MakeeLearn


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U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-virus-plan-anticipates-18-month-pandemic-and-widespread-shortages/ar-BB11ktjA?li=BBnb7Kz


"WASHINGTON — A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves,” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system.

The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector."

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Post #: 1222
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:34:46 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
https://www.rt.com/business/482814-china-business-resumes-coronavirus/


"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."


This puzzles me. By all accounts, the "heavy handed" lockdown measures used in China have had a significant effect on "taming" the virus spread in that country. If/when the majority of people start returning to work that would have to mean a great easing of the lockdown measures in place. The virus is not gone from China by any means. Only a tiny percentage of their population has been reported as having it.

My question for the group: Why does anyone expect the virus spread to not accelerate again when those lockdown measures are relaxed? I have to be missing some significant information because everything I've seen makes me expect the spread to pick back up again.


This is kind of what I've been pointing to all along. there is a lot of research, including the very good Washington Post article I linked the other day, about 5-6 pages back, with some examples of different mitigation methods. They show that complete quarantine is often only effective to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed until measures are lifted. Then it's bound to spike again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=hp_hp-banner-low_virus-simulator520pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Vaccine is the only actual solution other than eventual herd immunity (taking 60-70% of the population to get immunity by having the disease, of course assuming it can't come back again a second time)

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/18/2020 5:36:58 PM >


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Post #: 1223
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:39:52 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2178
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.


Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.

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Post #: 1224
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:43:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica
....

Please help me understand what I’m missing.



It's not clear that China returning to business as usual will result in renewed outbreak or, if it does, whether that will be unmanageable. There are so many variables - including temperature (climate) as China transitions into summer, etc.

We've cited South Korea as another example of a country preparing to work towards normalcy. Presumably, they'll be monitoring carefully and implementing precautions against another outbreak.

Personally, it seems very intuitive to figure out how to stop this thing, knowing we'll be better prepared next time, whether that happens as a re-ignition in a few months or a renewed outbreak when cold weather returns late in the year.

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Post #: 1225
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:46:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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Italy's numbers are updated on the Worldometers website - deaths spike to 475, up considerably over the past three days (which were steady at around 350).

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Post #: 1226
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:49:55 PM   
obvert


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London Update for the day.

We went out to the park this morning for a short play with my daughter. My wife didn't stop since she's pregnant, but rode around to get exercise while I pushed the swing. There were on average 3-4 other families there at any one point of our 45 minute stay. Definitely down, but likely to pick up when schools close (just announced) on Friday. We saw two families we know well, and the kids interacted while the parents kept 2 meters from each other, a kind of distance dance, while chatting. As usual, now part of my persistent routine, I wiped down our hands and we rode back on the bike, then washed hands and faces again at home.

The afternoon has been quiet with my wife and I splitting on screen meeting times for work. Some good time in the garden planting spring veggies. Our street is usually a constant steam of people returning from work from 4:30pm until about 8pm most nights, as we're near the tube and a good short cut to one area of the neighbourhood. Today traffic is noticeably lighter. I've noticed fewer cars parked on the street for a few days now too.

Our friend with the virus has gotten through the fever and seems to be doing better, with only comparatively slight breathing difficulties and a lot of fatigue now. His wife shows no symptoms now. Fingers crossed his recovery continues daily.

Word is local stores are planning to remain open and most community members seem to be behaving.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/18/2020 8:26:04 PM >


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Post #: 1227
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:52:38 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.


Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.


IIRC it was about 6-8% in the Wuhan report. It's in there if you want to dig out those numbers though.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1228
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:00:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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Erik, it seems like Georgia is ahead of England as far as closing schools. In my county the schools closed last week, as did many in the state. By now, all are probably closed. Many restaurants, stores and places of business have closed or reduced hours. Lots of other things, some of which were noted in previous posts. Also as noted above, most of the USA (not Washington and California) had the benefit of watching developments in Europe real time and thus taking action relatively quickly, before things really blew up.

Caveat: I'd better clarify that I don't know if this means anything whatsoever at this point.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/18/2020 6:14:39 PM >

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Post #: 1229
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 6:06:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?

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Post #: 1230
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