From: Chapel Hill, NC, USA
China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."
This puzzles me. By all accounts, the "heavy handed" lockdown measures used in China have had a significant effect on "taming" the virus spread in that country. If/when the majority of people start returning to work that would have to mean a great easing of the lockdown measures in place. The virus is not gone from China by any means. Only a tiny percentage of their population has been reported as having it.
My question for the group: Why does anyone expect the virus spread to not accelerate again when those lockdown measures are relaxed? I have to be missing some significant information because everything I've seen makes me expect the spread to pick back up again.
Right now, the main objective is to "dampen the curve" so that hospitals won't be overwhelmed by a sudden onslaught of cases. The thinking is that stretching the spread gradually over a longer period is better than a massive spike.
As far as later iterations or outbreaks, the thinking is that by then there will be much more knowledge and additional countermeasures that will help deal with it.
IE, we'd rather deal with 20,000 cases today and another 20,000 much later than 40,000 today and none later.
I fully understand the objective of “dampening the curve” and how urgent it is, even if I do wonder if we can dampen it enough to prevent the hospital ICU and ventilator resources from being overwhelmed. The “heavy handed” containment measures that China implemented to flatten the curve are the ONLY reason the infection rate is not still increasing there. If they remove those measures to allow the country to get back to business, there is nothing to prevent the infection rate from spiking again short of a vaccine or a mutation that seriously weakens the virus.
We’ve read that until a vaccine is developed, tested, produced, and administered, there is no way to stop the virus until we reach “herd immunity”. That’s the point where 40% - 70% of a given population has been infected and developed resistance or immunity to being infected again. China has reported around 82K infections so far. Assuming those numbers might be slightly under reported, let’s multiply that number x12. That would be 1 million Chinese residents infected. That is still only 0.07% if the 1.4 billion Chinese residents. There is still a loooooong way to go before they would reach the lowest threshold for herd immunity of 40%.
I have to be missing some critical information that allows others to think China is ready to get back to business since all my information says they can’t do that without relaxing their containment measures and they can’t do that without the infection rate increasing again.
Please help me understand what I’m missing.
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