From: Iowan in MD/DC
It hasn't peaked in Italy yet (one day of fewer than expected cases can't be discounted as not noise).
I'm always cautious of noise but I do think we're starting to see some flattening of both deaths and new cases for Italy at least. I'd still like a bit more data points, and assume that with some error bars the slope could still be upwards in rate of new incidents, but I'd say we're starting to see some of the effects of their shut down measures.
That would be great and with the 4 straight days of rough flatness, I think there's reason for optimism. However, remember that the incubation period of this virus can be up to 14 days, so until we see another day or two of flat new cases or declines...
Johns Hopkins is where I've been getting data from (admittedly secondhand from a guy who's updating charts every day and comparing to Italy's curve). https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv
Hey, Loka, you are repeatedly misquoting or misrepresenting what I've said.
I've said that seasonal flu might have mortality of 20k to 40k in the USA. I've never used a figure of 200k for corona virus in the USA, though I did refer to "tens or hundreds of thousands" when speaking in context of the world if China was stil increasing exponentially (I happened to be referring to Western Europe and the USA at the time, which might have confused you if you read that one post in isolation without dozens of others). I don't expect this to be near 40k in the USA, but if it happens to be, the mortality comparison is apt. I've made that point repeatedly here.
Yesterday and every other day I've said that we don't know if it has peaked in Italy yet (but as we noted yesterday, and as Alanschu's post just above furthers, there is the possibility of a trend that we're monitoring closely to see if it's an aberration or true).
None of my comments about a month (or less or more) pertained to the duration of impingement on life. The month figures have been used with respect to the duration of the worst of the virus - either the upswing of the bell-shaped curve or possibly even the most steep parts of each side - in places like China and South Korea, and the possibility the same might be true elsewhere (I think it will be, but not sure until we have more data from elsewhere). See my post 1115 yesterday that discusses this in detail. I've noted more than once that the effect on the economy and lifestyle will last considerably longer.
You referred to this as a "War and Peace" thread yesterday, presumably referring to its length. I take that to mean you haven't read through this but dip you toes in now and then. If so, you're missing a lot of context. It's fine to disagree, but please don't misrepresent.
After that, I read every post since my last response.
I was responding to your statement: "We routinely deal with far more for seasonal flu and more irregular epidemics and pandemics." I interpreted that literally, which is to say that I interpreted it to mean that you were stating that the seasonal flu and other infectious diseases were comparable to or worse than this pandemic.
Bumping this up from the previous page, lest it get lost in the War and Peace volume of this thread.
What's with this report from the UK?
I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."
The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.
What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).
I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.
But if so, it would be great news.
I'm going with: that guy misspoke or didn't know what he was talking about, or perhaps was alluding to asymptomatic cases being included in the overall numbers. I don't know. But literally right above the 1-in-1000 it says 69 deaths out of 1950 cases, which is more like 35-in-1000...
For those unable to read each entry in this tome, see Captain Beefheart's firsthand update from South Korea, posted about 12 hours ago. In general, things look good there and schools are scheduled to re-open on April 8.
Edited to ad: Post 1141, top of previous page. https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4768436&mpage=39
Which, if we do as good of a job here as they did there (I have my doubts), would put us on track for a return to a semblance of normalcy when - late April?
That would be a bit better than current expectations of 1st or 2nd week of May.
FWIW, first confirmation of community spread in my work county (Montgomery County, MD) as of this morning.