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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 12:52:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ian, I regret you are disappointed! If you find this thread alarmist, don't go to the General Forum thread on coronavirus.

There have been some bumps and bruises in here but overall the discussion has been great and (for me) enlightening. It has helped me think through things and better organize my thoughts and analysis. As a result, I've turned pretty darned optimistic (or so it seems to me).



quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

Here in oz we now have, apparently, about 300 sufferers. Out of 25m.

We are shutting down. Gold price is increasing.

I am really quite pissed off with some of the stupidity uttered here.

I thought you guys were better than that.





< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/18/2020 12:54:09 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 12:55:58 PM   
MakeeLearn


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In France, people now need a form to leave their houses as 100,000 police have been commissioned to enforce the country's lockdown
March 17, 2020

https://www.theblaze.com/news/france-form-to-leave-house-coronavirus


"On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the 15-day lockdown in France, saying that the country is at "war" with the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. The lockdown requires most people to remain at home over the next couple weeks in order to stem the spread of the virus.

Under the lockdown, French residents are still able to leave their homes if absolutely necessary, but in order to so they must produce a document citing their reasons for being in public."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/18/2020 12:59:43 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 1:08:18 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Think only old people can die from Coronavirus? Think again. Expert who led team assessing China's outbreak says NO ONE is safe from the killer virus]
18 March 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8124901/Young-people-dying-coronavirus-despite-elderly-people-worst-affected.html

"Elderly people are the most at-risk of developing severe Coronavirus, but experts warn young, healthy people are still dying from the respiratory infection."

"Europe's youngest Coronavirus was reported to be a 21-year-old football coach in Spain, who had no idea he was vulnerable because of his Leukaemia."


"Most of the 8,000 fatalities recorded across the world have been people who are elderly or suffer underlying conditions, and have weakened immune systems. Chinese health officials carried out the biggest ever study on the virus, using data from 72,000 cases. They found 19 per cent of patients who died were below the age of 60 years "






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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/18/2020 1:15:32 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 1:22:47 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Some stats to think about....



Life And Death In Bomber Command(RAF)
https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/life-and-death-in-bomber-command

Aircrew were first committed to a tour of thirty operational flights, not exceeding 200 actual flying hours, which could last for any period from four months to a year.

Pathfinder crews flew forty-five. A six-month break - usually spent as instructors with training units - was followed by a second and final tour.

Instructing had its dangers, too, as it involved flying with inexperienced recruits in old aircraft. More than 8,000 men were killed in training accidents or other non-operational flying during the Second World War.


Operational flying was perilous. Chances of survival varied during a tour, depending on factors such as inexperience, fatigue, type of aircraft flown and target.
The most dangerous were the first and last five trips.

During the whole war, 51% of aircrew were killed on operations,
12% were killed or wounded in non-operational accidents and
13% became prisoners of war or evaders.
Only 24% survived the war unscathed.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/18/2020 1:47:30 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 1:27:49 PM   
Canoerebel


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MakeeLearn, that's one weird headline (two posts above). In the first place, nobody thinks "only" the elderly can die. In the second, the table in the story shows that the elderly are indeed disproportionately affected, pretty much discrediting whatever point the writer was trying to make.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 1:32:12 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MakeeLearn, that's one weird headline (two posts above). In the first place, nobody thinks "only" the elderly can die. In the second, the table in the story shows that the elderly are indeed disproportionately affected, pretty much discrediting whatever point the writer was trying to make.



Exactly what I was gleaning from the article as I read it. There is probably a "Life Style" connection to most of the younger deaths.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 1:39:18 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Conditioning






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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/18/2020 1:41:54 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 1:54:44 PM   
Canoerebel


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Bumping this up from the previous page, lest it get lost in the War and Peace volume of this thread.

What's with this report from the UK?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.






< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/18/2020 1:55:00 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:05:44 PM   
MakeeLearn


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"Listen to them, the children of the night. ..."





quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bumping this up from the previous page, lest it get lost in the War and Peace volume of this thread.

What's with this report from the UK?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.









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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/18/2020 2:07:04 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:16:21 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

Here in oz we now have, apparently, about 300 sufferers. Out of 25m.

We are shutting down. Gold price is increasing.

I am really quite pissed off with some of the stupidity uttered here.

I thought you guys were better than that.




Hold on. Not sure what you're getting at, but you don't have to read this thread if you don't need more info on Covid. You can wait until the numbers are higher there, as they will be everywhere without strict measures, and then have another look.

Australia is no different from anywhere else. I have family there, and there is significant concern. Acting now will be helpful, not harmful, to Australians.



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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:23:14 PM   
obvert


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It's either a misquotation or a stumble. No one has a mortality rate that low for Covid. The lowest I've seen is the one from Diamond Princess, which was kind of a testing lab for Covid, since it was locked up and quarantined for some time. Around 0.5%, and that seems about the same a what I'd seen for Korea earlier, although I haven't looked lately. More focused on case numbers now.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bumping this up from the previous page, lest it get lost in the War and Peace volume of this thread.

What's with this report from the UK?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.





< Message edited by obvert -- 3/18/2020 2:31:07 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:27:02 PM   
obvert


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The Financial Times had this today. The graph shows case levels (as known anyway) in relationship since 100 were known in each country. The light blues of some areas in East Asia continue very low levels of new cases with strict controls, testing and case tracking with isolation.

My hunch is that the only reason the UK is below the 33% mark is the lack of widespread testing, although it seems to be improving. There is a slight jump in numbers by the day.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441





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< Message edited by obvert -- 3/18/2020 2:33:36 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:36:47 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Sir Patrick Vallance

https://twitter.com/uksciencechief






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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/18/2020 2:43:57 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:39:43 PM   
obvert


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Just to note also the effect of the disease on China, I've been following this set of graphs fro a while in the FT. It shows a marked reduction that continues across all indicators of Chinese economic activity. They're not all back from quarantine. So we don't know what will happen when the measures that have been affective are released.

I do think they'll be on top of testing and isolating so any further outbreak will again be lessened.






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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:48:27 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Satellites show how nitrogen dioxide, a dangerous gas released by burning fuel, has dissipated since the outbreak.






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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:50:57 PM   
Cheesesteak


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has anyone reviewed the Imperial College report and can provide a grounded response? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

CR, it sounds like you are right to be optimistic, IF suppression is followed strictly. I'm curious to see how long democratic countries can enforce that in the face of the politicized severity and response required.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:55:07 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

has anyone reviewed the Imperial College report and can provide a grounded response? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

CR, it sounds like you are right to be optimistic, IF suppression is followed strictly. I'm curious to see how long democratic countries can enforce that in the face of the politicized severity and response required.



"Our analysis informs the evaluation of both the nature of the measures required to suppress COVID-19and the likely duration that these measures will need to be in place. Results in this paper have informed policy making in the UK and other countries in the last weeks.
However, we emphasise that is not at all certain that suppression will succeed longterm; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:56:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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Suppression is helpful and important. Note however, that failures might or might not be mitigated by other things such as advances in vaccines or treatment that might have an effect that wasn't measured in China.

Suppression in my area has been remarkable, especially over the past six days. Most of that has been locally or state mandated or voluntary. Schools closed last week; churches too; restaurants and retail stores have closed or curtailed hours; lots of people semi-hunkering down at home; etc. We're not China, by any means, we're probably well ahead of Italy and most of Europe (not because we're better but because we saw what was happening there and kind of freaked out).

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:57:03 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

has anyone reviewed the Imperial College report and can provide a grounded response? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

CR, it sounds like you are right to be optimistic, IF suppression is followed strictly. I'm curious to see how long democratic countries can enforce that in the face of the politicized severity and response required.


I posted it earlier, on reading it's not great.

Mitigation alone will overload the health service, and we need serious suppression measures to actually get an impact. Sadly the suppressive measures needed are very, very heavy handed and likely won't go away any time soon.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:58:12 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Nature... looks SO pretty on TV.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:06:03 PM   
MakeeLearn


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China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
https://www.rt.com/business/482814-china-business-resumes-coronavirus/


"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:14:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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For those unable to read each entry in this tome, see Captain Beefheart's firsthand update from South Korea, posted about 12 hours ago. In general, things look good there and schools are scheduled to re-open on April 8.

Edited to ad: Post 1141, top of previous page. https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4768436&mpage=39

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/18/2020 3:17:25 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:19:49 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Nebraska doctors are providing Coronavirus patients with chicken soup and Tylenol
February 19, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/health/nebraska-coronavirus-unmc-chicken-soup/index.html

""They're in the chicken soup stage right now," Rupp said. "It's really just watching them and giving them supportive care that you would probably get at home from a loving provider.""

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:25:39 PM   
Canoerebel


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For those unable to read each post in this tome, please send a case of Jack Daniels to Makee Learn c/o General Delivery, Goosebump, Tennessee. Sedation.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:27:12 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

For those unable to read each entry in this tome, see Captain Beefheart's firsthand update from South Korea, posted about 12 hours ago. In general, things look good there and schools are scheduled to re-open on April 8.

Edited to ad: Post 1141, top of previous page. https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4768436&mpage=39


I would stress that in the context of a global pandemic, you should have much more emphasis on the quantitative evidence than the qualitative or anecdotal evidence.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:30:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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For the record and to make clear to any reader not equipped with common sense (none of you, by the way): I referred to Captain Beeheart's informative (but not definitive) post for one small glimpse into one aspect of life in one country. Please do not take this for concrete evidence of what's going on in Korea or what's happening or might happen in your country.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:38:45 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

quote:

It hasn't peaked in Italy yet (one day of fewer than expected cases can't be discounted as not noise).


I'm always cautious of noise but I do think we're starting to see some flattening of both deaths and new cases for Italy at least. I'd still like a bit more data points, and assume that with some error bars the slope could still be upwards in rate of new incidents, but I'd say we're starting to see some of the effects of their shut down measures.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/





That would be great and with the 4 straight days of rough flatness, I think there's reason for optimism. However, remember that the incubation period of this virus can be up to 14 days, so until we see another day or two of flat new cases or declines...

Johns Hopkins is where I've been getting data from (admittedly secondhand from a guy who's updating charts every day and comparing to Italy's curve). https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Loka, you are repeatedly misquoting or misrepresenting what I've said.

I've said that seasonal flu might have mortality of 20k to 40k in the USA. I've never used a figure of 200k for corona virus in the USA, though I did refer to "tens or hundreds of thousands" when speaking in context of the world if China was stil increasing exponentially (I happened to be referring to Western Europe and the USA at the time, which might have confused you if you read that one post in isolation without dozens of others). I don't expect this to be near 40k in the USA, but if it happens to be, the mortality comparison is apt. I've made that point repeatedly here.

Yesterday and every other day I've said that we don't know if it has peaked in Italy yet (but as we noted yesterday, and as Alanschu's post just above furthers, there is the possibility of a trend that we're monitoring closely to see if it's an aberration or true).

None of my comments about a month (or less or more) pertained to the duration of impingement on life. The month figures have been used with respect to the duration of the worst of the virus - either the upswing of the bell-shaped curve or possibly even the most steep parts of each side - in places like China and South Korea, and the possibility the same might be true elsewhere (I think it will be, but not sure until we have more data from elsewhere). See my post 1115 yesterday that discusses this in detail. I've noted more than once that the effect on the economy and lifestyle will last considerably longer.

You referred to this as a "War and Peace" thread yesterday, presumably referring to its length. I take that to mean you haven't read through this but dip you toes in now and then. If so, you're missing a lot of context. It's fine to disagree, but please don't misrepresent.



After that, I read every post since my last response.

I was responding to your statement: "We routinely deal with far more for seasonal flu and more irregular epidemics and pandemics." I interpreted that literally, which is to say that I interpreted it to mean that you were stating that the seasonal flu and other infectious diseases were comparable to or worse than this pandemic.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bumping this up from the previous page, lest it get lost in the War and Peace volume of this thread.

What's with this report from the UK?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.







I'm going with: that guy misspoke or didn't know what he was talking about, or perhaps was alluding to asymptomatic cases being included in the overall numbers. I don't know. But literally right above the 1-in-1000 it says 69 deaths out of 1950 cases, which is more like 35-in-1000...


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

For those unable to read each entry in this tome, see Captain Beefheart's firsthand update from South Korea, posted about 12 hours ago. In general, things look good there and schools are scheduled to re-open on April 8.

Edited to ad: Post 1141, top of previous page. https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4768436&mpage=39


Which, if we do as good of a job here as they did there (I have my doubts), would put us on track for a return to a semblance of normalcy when - late April?

That would be a bit better than current expectations of 1st or 2nd week of May.




FWIW, first confirmation of community spread in my work county (Montgomery County, MD) as of this morning.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:39:27 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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This is quite encouraging, if it can be scaled up:

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1240279081293352964/photo/1

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:41:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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Loka, with respect to your comment about four straight days of roughly flatness in Italy, that's the same point we made yesterday about 30 times.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:46:13 PM   
Canoerebel


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Loka, with respect to your comment about the 1st or 2nd week of May, the figures being discussed yesterday (in context) were July or later.

As noted above and about 300 times altogether (thus wearing out most readers beyond measure), the point repeatedly being made is that the virus has thus far followed a bell-shaped-curve, with the increase lasting a few weeks to a month, and the major legs (up and down) so far about a month to six weeks. We're waiting to see if this holds true in Italy, which is 2.5 weeks into it's exponential rise and possibly just now leveling off.

If this is true, it will indeed be encouraging. Two to four weeks to iron out the curve is one thing; three to six months would be something else.


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