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RE: OT: Corona virus

 
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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 4:59:29 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Watching data come in hour by hour is pretty brutal because usually it will take at least three days of consistency to establish a trend with any degree of confidence.

Nevertheless, the data coming from Italy remains a key to understanding progression and containment. So I'll be looking at that today (yesterday it came in about 1 p.m. eastern (USA) time).

In the meantime, new cases in Spain, France, Germany, USA and lots of other counties are on the rising (discouraging) side of the bell-shaped-curve. Knowing when Italy tops out and then begins to decline (as South Korea did about 10 days back) is meaningful info.

Very late last night there was news that Italy's daily rate of new infections came down for the first time in about three weeks. That means flattening the curve may be starting. We won't know if it is an anomaly or a trend until a few more days of this data point come in.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1081
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:03:45 PM   
Zorch

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The virus has now been reported in every state except for West Virginia, according to the CDC."

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong
West Virginia, mountain mama
Take me home, country roads…
John Denver

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1082
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:03:57 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

CORONA CHAOS Coronavirus LIVE news: UK airports could shut ‘within weeks’ – latest updates
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11176662/coronavirus-live-news-updates-cases/
17 Mar 2020, 13:44



"LONDON's transport network could come to a near halt as Britain is gripped by the coronavirus lockdown with the English capital at the centre of the outbreak.

Britain has entered lockdown with millions of Brits staying at home and over-70s being urged to shield themselves from the outside world.

Medical advisers have warned that Britain's coronavirus death toll, currently at 55, will soar to 260,000 unless the lockdown is made stricter."

Apparently (according to someone interviewed on BBC news this morning) the UK Health Minister stated that their target is to hold deaths to 20,000 or less. That sounds high too - very pessimistic. That might mean they are planning fewer isolation measures than other countries.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1083
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:10:32 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The USA benefitted from being a bit later in virus onset (in most places) and getting to see what was going on in Europe and how things were being handled. As a result, federal, state and local governments began taken strong action comparatively early and in some ways we've caught up to Western Europe (and perhaps surpassed some, in some ways).

That may not be the case with all states, like Washington State which saw an early outbreak back in February and dealt with far more uncertainty in what to do.


We do have that advantage, but IMO, we have squandered some of that through mis-management of testing. Truth is we have no way of knowing right now how widespread it is.

We are also behind in respirators; the US has a Strategic Reserve of Medical devices that includes respirators. We need to not only be deploying those right now, but also training additional staff in their use. In fact, we should be training additional medical help staff right now. We can't train up more nurses and doctors, but we can provide some basic training to Guardsmen and others to help in an emergency.

It's almost a certainty that as the hospitals admit more patients, there will be fewer nurses, because a) some will get sick, and b) 38% of the Nurses in this country have school-age children; some of those need to watch their kids!!!!

There is probably a large pool of recently retired nurses who could be used if they volunteer and the usual requirements for Registration are suspended for this crisis. The ones with time-expired credentials (has not worked at nursing for X weeks) could be used in the simpler but necessary tasks while the freed-up nurses do the more complex work. Funding for the virus fight should be used to pay the volunteer nurses (as an incentive for volunteers to come forward).

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Post #: 1084
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:11:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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I saw that too, BBfanboy.

It prompted my post (above) about really needing three days of info to reliably detect a trend. There are daily fluctuations that are alternately discouraging or encouraging.

But since Italy is 2.5 weeks into this, there is a chance its case rate will level out sooner rather than later.

I'm anxious to see today's info.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2020 5:12:04 PM >

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Post #: 1085
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:17:38 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

I'll spare you the links since it's happening everywhere, but jury duty and trials are being suspended all across the country. Apparently the "right to a speedy trial" isn't such an important right after all. Which other rights aren't so important? It shouldn't matter whether you are liberal or conservative, dangerous precedents are being set.

A jury is only 12 people clustered together and surely they could be tested before a trial begins and sequestered as necessary in the community they are in?
Limits on courtroom spectators could ensure social space of at least six feet. Lawyers could be forbidden from picking their noses ...

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Post #: 1086
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:20:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Information for Italy just added to the Worldometer website.

The number of deaths (the number I've been focusing on) is 345, which is essentially the same as the past two days.

Aberration of true leveling out? Darn it, we can't know for certain for days. But its certainly better than exponential growth.




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Post #: 1087
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:28:54 PM   
BBfanboy


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Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?

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Post #: 1088
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:34:16 PM   
alanschu

 

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I'm concerned about the 10-12% jump in new cases in a day, though.

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Post #: 1089
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:34:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yeah, and why the huge concentration and outbreak of cases in the Lombardy province of Italy?

I've seen some reports attributing mortality in Italy to the comparatively large number of elderly folks. I don't think that can be the case, as surely Lombardy isn't that much different than other provinces in the country. Something else had to happen there.

In China it was the Wuhan province disproportionately affected. In South Korea, it was the are where that church was located. In the USA, that Washington State nursing home was a ground zero for awhile.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2020 5:36:41 PM >

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Post #: 1090
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:36:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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The good news, Alanschu, is that number of new cases has been basically level for four days now! Truly, that might be the leveling out of the bell-shaped-curve.


quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I'm concerned about the 10-12% jump in new cases in a day, though.


(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 1091
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:40:29 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I'm concerned about the 10-12% jump in new cases in a day, though.

That rate is down from something like 18% a few days ago. That is the flattening of the rate curve we are monitoring. Once the country has had 14 days or more of the lockdown, the number of new cases should fall dramatically. There may be a slight delay in that where infected persons have been locked down with uninfected family members or same building neighbours who didn't follow the rules about no visiting.

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Post #: 1092
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:50:36 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Coming back to this.

This is just critical care beds of all types, yes? What's important is the number of critical care devices that can assist patients with symptoms of severe respiratory infections - so respirators/ventilators and any other devices that can assist in breathing for a patient. It's notable because what's going on in Italy is they are having to decide which patients get the ventilator when it's available and which don't.


In general, we aren't talking about just the bed, but the unit and it's support capabilities for "X" number of CCBs. I haven't been able to find any stats relative to "ventilators per CCB", but it's got to be very high, although it may vary from country to country. There are interesting stats at the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma, in particular:

quote:

Mechanical ventilation is one of the most common interventions implemented in the intensive care unit. More than half of the patients in the ICU are ventilated the first 24 hours after ICU admission; comprised of individuals who have acute respiratory failure, compromised lung function, difficulty in breathing, or failure to protect their airway.


And this:

quote:

790,257 hospitalizations involving mechanical ventilation in 2005, representing 2.7 episodes of mechanical ventilation per 1000 population; estimated national costs were 27 billion representing 12% of all hospital costs.


That means there have to be a lot and given the regulatory environment, it wouldn't surprise me if a high ratio was mandated (possibly even 1-to-1).

Here's some information on ventilators from the American Thoracic Society. What they do, how they work, and more.


I'd be surprised if it was 1:1, but you raise a good point - I forgot that ventilation was so common. Still, we need many more ventilator-capable beds.

The Imperial College study that came out yesterday is sobering: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

20 pages. Go to page 8 for the critical care beds capacity vs. needs - it's for what they call Great Britain, I don't know why they don't say UK... but just move that tiny red line up to the US per capita CCB of 30-something and it doesn't make a whole lot of difference when you need 150 to 200 per capita. The measures we are taking now are somewhere between the blue and orange bull curves. I saw in another post that the orange bell curve is a peak of roughly 50,000 deaths per day in late May/early June. Think about that for a minute.

It estimates somewhere around 1.1M to 1.2M deaths in the US, most of them occurring before mid-summer.

Maybe they're wrong, but how likely are they to be wrong by that many orders of magnitude?

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1093
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:53:04 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The good news, Alanschu, is that number of new cases has been basically level for four days now! Truly, that might be the leveling out of the bell-shaped-curve.


quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I'm concerned about the 10-12% jump in new cases in a day, though.




I'm extremely skeptical that it is sustainable. I think it is far more likely that the perceived flattening is the result of one of two things: (1) testing is still not being done widely enough to accurately capture the actual spread; or (2) the relatively draconian (compared to normal times) measures that are already in place in the US's major population centers may actually be working, but would need to be maintained for over a year and possibly as long as 18 months for this rate of spread to be sustainable without the rate of spread exploding upwards again.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1094
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:55:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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A very high likelihood, I think. Almost as high as that Australian group that estimated 15,000,000 deaths under the best case of seven scenarios.


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Post #: 1095
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 5:56:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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I agree that testing is questionable, Loka. That's why I prefer using mortality numbers.

(Note that the discussion you commented actually wasn't about the USA. It was about Italy.)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The good news, Alanschu, is that number of new cases has been basically level for four days now! Truly, that might be the leveling out of the bell-shaped-curve.


quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I'm concerned about the 10-12% jump in new cases in a day, though.




I'm extremely skeptical that it is sustainable. I think it is far more likely that the perceived flattening is the result of one of two things: (1) testing is still not being done widely enough to accurately capture the actual spread; or (2) the relatively draconian (compared to normal times) measures that are already in place in the US's major population centers may actually be working, but would need to be maintained for over a year and possibly as long as 18 months for this rate of spread to be sustainable without the rate of spread exploding upwards again.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2020 6:00:10 PM >

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Post #: 1096
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:05:37 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ten days after passing the peak of the bell-shaped-curve, recoveries in South Korea are rapidly increasing. That country has had 84 deaths and 1401 recoveries, which is 33 more deaths and nearly 1300 more recoveries than a week ago.


In western democracies, a lockdown is only going to work for a short period, and it's really imperative that we use that time to lay the groundwork for opening society back up along the lines of the South Korean model. People who are talking about lockdowns lasting for months and months are insane.

The healthcare system isn't the only one that has a finite capacity, the same is true of the criminal justice system. What WILL millions of young people do when they can't work or socialize for months and months? I'd rather not find out.


Young people aren't more likely to commit crimes - crime rates among people born after lead was (mostly) removed from the environment have been dropping like a watermelon and an apple from the top of the tower of Pisa.

https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.jsp

"Youth crime continues to plummet across the country, with arrests of people under age 18 falling for the 13th straight year and reaching lows not seen in at least six decades, new FBI figures show." (October 3, 2019)
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Vanishing-Violence-Youth-crime-continues-14487543.php

Kids these days are more likely to play more video games than engage in risky, possibly criminal behaviors.

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1097
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:06:23 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I agree that testing is questionable, Loka. That's why I prefer using mortality numbers.

(Note that the discussion you commented actually wasn't about the USA. It was about Italy.)



It's impossible to keep track of this War and Peace thread because not everyone quotes the context for their comment.

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Post #: 1098
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:08:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yeah, I know.

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Post #: 1099
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:09:01 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A very high likelihood, I think. Almost as high as that Australian group that estimated 15,000,000 deaths under the best case of seven scenarios.




Even "just" 200K dead by mid-summer (as opposed to 1.1-1.2M) is a whole lot of extra dead people. If 1.1-1.2M is 50K deaths per day at peak, 200K would be ~10K deaths per day at peak?

That's more than doubling the typical daily mortality rate of 7K-something.

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 3/17/2020 6:11:15 PM >

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Post #: 1100
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:09:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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On the flip side, I've gotten a lot more interesting insight into this from this thread than from any other source I've accessed.

I just wish Chickenboy was participating more often.

Hey, has anybody heard from him since he went to that renaissance fair in Texas?

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Post #: 1101
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:10:28 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?


Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.

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Post #: 1102
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:19:13 PM   
Canoerebel


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Judging from what we're seeing elsewhere, especially Asia and the western Pacific, and now perhaps [but only perhaps!] in Italy, I don't expect to see numbers in the millions. As for numbers in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, that's serious but not comparatively so. We routinely deal with far more for seasonal flu and more irregular epidemics and pandemics.

I'd better caveat first by saying that every death is a tragedy to his/her community. We're dealing with numbers intensely personal to people.

Right now, early data indicates the bell-shaped-curve for each country might last three weeks, four weeks, maybe more. That was the case in China, in South Korea, in Japan. We may soon know if that's the case in Italy. And eventually here. We may lengthen that by dampening the curve, but that should help as that medical system would be less likely to be overwhelmed.

Given the data we're seeing, the situation in Western Europe and in the USA should peak and then begin to taper off in March. Not in July or September.

There may be re-occurrences in the autumn, but we'll be far more prepared then. And, as Chickenboy noted early in this thread, sometimes a SARS-related virus simply vanishes after awhile. There are alot of unknowns long-term.

Short term, though, there are many encouraging signs and data points to deal with.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A very high likelihood, I think. Almost as high as that Australian group that estimated 15,000,000 deaths under the best case of seven scenarios.




Even "just" 200K dead by mid-summer (as opposed to 1.1-1.2M) is a whole lot of extra dead people. If 1.1-1.2M is 50K deaths per day at peak, 200K would be ~10K deaths per day at peak?

That's more than double the typical daily mortality rate of 7K-something.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2020 6:23:11 PM >

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Post #: 1103
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:31:50 PM   
Jaroen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, and why the huge concentration and outbreak of cases in the Lombardy province of Italy?




Surprisingly there is a strong Lombardian link with China.
Many of the leather factories (fashion) in Lombardy were sold to Chinese investors, many from the Wuhan province. This leading to much travel coming and going by the Chinese managers. Clearly this was not readily recognized by the Italian governing bodies and early cases understood as incidents. And the rest . . . is not yet history . . .

Regarding all the graphs shown, I take them with a large grain of sand. I think we can about trust the number of deaths to the virus but that's it. Agreeing here with Canoerebel. The rest is basically guessing.


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Post #: 1104
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:39:56 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?


Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.


Unless a lot of Chinese people go to Switzerland and Norway for skiing, I would not expect many visitors in the winter that would drive the infection rate per million so much higher than other countries. Switzerland probably can be explained by proximity to northern Italy, but Norway? How many visitors from high-risk areas does Norway get in the winter? And don't the mountains limit travel somewhat so geographic isolation is more prevalent?
So I wonder whether the virus is spreading faster there or if they are just very vigilant in their testing so they count more cases earlier than other countries on the chart.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1105
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:43:27 PM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

On the flip side, I've gotten a lot more interesting insight into this from this thread than from any other source I've accessed.

I just wish Chickenboy was participating more often.

Hey, has anybody heard from him since he went to that renaissance fair in Texas?



I've heard a rumor that he's been named "King" of central Texas and is busy putting together a government.

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Post #: 1106
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:47:53 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Italy's Coronavirus death toll surges past 2,500 - Live updates

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/urges-world-test-test-test-covid-19-live-updates-200316234425373.html
Today 17Mar20 9minutes ago

"Italy reported 345 new coronavirus deaths in the country over the last 24 hours taking its total death toll to 2,503 - an increase of 16 percent.

The total number of cases in Italy rose to 31,506 from a previous 27,980, up 12.6 percent - the slowest rate of increase since the contagion came to light on February 21. Italy is the European country hardest hit by coronavirus."

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Post #: 1107
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:49:56 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

On the flip side, I've gotten a lot more interesting insight into this from this thread than from any other source I've accessed.

I just wish Chickenboy was participating more often.

Hey, has anybody heard from him since he went to that renaissance fair in Texas?



I've heard a rumor that he's been named "King" of central Texas and is busy putting together a government.



It has to start somewhere.

_____________________________


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Post #: 1108
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 6:56:05 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Oh guys...

I came back from Liberia a couple of weeks ago. Decided intentionally not to stop by my friends and parents in Italy and I went directly to Prague, where my partner lives.

Now I'm stuck there with no apparent possibility to go back to Africa anytime soon. Remote working and everything closed.


In the meanwhile, since coronavirus is too mainstream, I had to go to the hospital where they do treat people for coronavirus here in Czech Republic because I was having a moderate dengue. Of course, since I'm also very lucky (...), the only tropical disease department in the country is the one treating coronavirus. They are doing very well, but I wasn't that happy to be stuck there for quite a while.

The only positive aspect so far is that me and my opponent we doubled the amount of turns per day


Good to hear from you. Out of the frying pan into the fire, huh?

Dengue is no fun. Bone-break fever they call it. Hope yours is abating.

Keep us abreast of how things go there.


_____________________________

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Post #: 1109
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/17/2020 7:00:53 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?


Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.


Unless a lot of Chinese people go to Switzerland and Norway for skiing, I would not expect many visitors in the winter that would drive the infection rate per million so much higher than other countries. Switzerland probably can be explained by proximity to northern Italy, but Norway? How many visitors from high-risk areas does Norway get in the winter? And don't the mountains limit travel somewhat so geographic isolation is more prevalent?
So I wonder whether the virus is spreading faster there or if they are just very vigilant in their testing so they count more cases earlier than other countries on the chart.


There were a lot of tourists/skiiers in Switzerland for sure, and France. A bunch of Brits stranded.

Norway was high early, and I can only assume it's the same.

Iran seems to be a different story. Some Chinese there passed it early and many indications are that the real numbers may be much worse than shown.

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