From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Judging from what we're seeing elsewhere, especially Asia and the western Pacific, and now perhaps [but only perhaps!] in Italy, I don't expect to see numbers in the millions. As for numbers in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, that's serious but not comparatively so. We routinely deal with far more for seasonal flu and more irregular epidemics and pandemics.
I'd better caveat first by saying that every death is a tragedy to his/her community. We're dealing with numbers intensely personal to people.
Right now, early data indicates the bell-shaped-curve for each country might last three weeks, four weeks, maybe more. That was the case in China, in South Korea, in Japan. We may soon know if that's the case in Italy. And eventually here. We may lengthen that by dampening the curve, but that should help as that medical system would be less likely to be overwhelmed.
Given the data we're seeing, the situation in Western Europe and in the USA should peak and then begin to taper off in March. Not in July or September.
There may be re-occurrences in the autumn, but we'll be far more prepared then. And, as Chickenboy noted early in this thread, sometimes a SARS-related virus simply vanishes after awhile. There are alot of unknowns long-term.
Short term, though, there are many encouraging signs and data points to deal with.
A very high likelihood, I think. Almost as high as that Australian group that estimated 15,000,000 deaths under the best case of seven scenarios.
Even "just" 200K dead by mid-summer (as opposed to 1.1-1.2M) is a whole lot of extra dead people. If 1.1-1.2M is 50K deaths per day at peak, 200K would be ~10K deaths per day at peak?
That's more than double the typical daily mortality rate of 7K-something.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2020 6:23:11 PM >