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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:20:31 AM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.


Do you have a background that's relevant to vaccines and virology?

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 961
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:22:05 AM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Can you lose a Michelin star over that?


How does one collect Michelin stars? Is it like real life Mario world?

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Post #: 962
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:40:55 AM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 846
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

And all I'm saying is that I didn't find Olin's comment political whatsoever. We all have different views. I'm just suggesting we all be a little more forgiving and tolerant of each other's views. In the end, it's not for me or anyone else to decide; we have moderators.


That's right, we do have moderators. And Erik has spoken. No politics:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I'd just like to ask again that we please try to keep politics out of this. Let's focus on information to help us all get through this pandemic, not discussion on whether one or another healthcare systems are superior. We are where we are and the virus is gunning for us all. We will all be happy to have those discussion on the other side of this. Right now focus on what unites us please.




<Laughter> Kull - I didn't suggest anything different...



_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 963
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:44:28 AM   
durnedwolf


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From: USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Can you lose a Michelin star over that?


How does one collect Michelin stars? Is it like real life Mario world?


I had to Google this - it's a rating system for restaurants and their quality.

_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 964
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:59:04 AM   
Kull


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From: El Paso, TX
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Humor is good:




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Post #: 965
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 4:06:08 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Here's a chart of the daily number of new cases in South Korea.

When this thread began on 2/26/20, South Korea was a few days into its exponential increase phase. That lasted about two weeks, tapering off in early March. As of mid-March, SK is on the encouraging side of a bell-shaped curve.

Right now, Italy is on the discouraging side of the bell-shaped curve. It has already suffered far more mortality than SK. That may continue for some time to come or it may abruptly tail off, as the pandemic matures or the effect of emergency measures kick in. It would be great to see Italy taper into the encouraging side of that curve, both for the sake of its people and to give other countries a better feel for what's going on and what to expect in the future.






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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/16/2020 4:07:01 AM >

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 966
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 4:18:52 AM   
Canoerebel


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The next few days are so important in Italy. Will the bell-shaped curve turn or continue up. Here's wishing for the best.




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Post #: 967
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 4:46:03 AM   
alanschu

 

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It's interesting trying to assess public behaviour. This was a graph posted of NYC ER reports for flu like diseases. One concern I have is that it's more prevalent in parts of major cities than people realize.

That said, concerns of COVID-19 are also going to increase the likelihood of going to the ER when you have symptoms.







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Post #: 968
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 5:07:38 AM   
Kull


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From: El Paso, TX
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There's a lot of talk about "hospital bed count", but the important number is "Critical Care Beds". Attached is an interesting chart, showing CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants. With a population of about 60M, that means Italy has 7500 CCBs. The current worlodometers chart says there are 1672 serious/critical Covid-19 cases in Italy, so at a minimum that's consumed 22% of all national CCBs. And since those are sprinkled around the country and the majority of Italian cases are in Lombardy, the real bed consumption rate in the affected zones could be 2-4 times higher.

By contrast, Germany has vastly more CCBs (almost 25K) and few reported serious/critical patients. Which means CCB availability is not an issue (at least for now), and is probably at least one reason why the death rate is so much lower. It also suggest that Germany can weather a lot more critical cases before the system is "stretched" and the death rate increases. Something to watch going forward (the same applies to the US).

We keep hearing about "not exceeding healthcare system limits", and this gives a way to analyze and predict what might be coming (i.e. how close is it to Italy)




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/16/2020 5:09:45 AM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 5:59:08 AM   
Kursk1943


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To increase our "critical care bed capacity" in Germany from today on no more non-essential surgery or treatment in hospitals is allowed in order to free still more beds and personnel.

< Message edited by Kursk1943 -- 3/16/2020 6:00:39 AM >


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Post #: 970
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 7:47:06 AM   
obvert


Posts: 13992
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Humor is good:



This is hilarious! And from my neck of the woods!

I already passed it on to my sister who lives int he area.

I also passed it on to a friend who just let me know he's got it. Had night chills and some fever for about 3-4 days, then this.

"Feels like someone is standing on my chest and my throat is closing. No coughing though. Glad I quit smoking.
I think I'm on the other side of it. Like the end of a really hard rowing race"

He got a kick out of the post, and he's still got a wry sense of humour.

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Post #: 971
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 7:53:55 AM   
obvert


Posts: 13992
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

There's a lot of talk about "hospital bed count", but the important number is "Critical Care Beds". Attached is an interesting chart, showing CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants. With a population of about 60M, that means Italy has 7500 CCBs. The current worlodometers chart says there are 1672 serious/critical Covid-19 cases in Italy, so at a minimum that's consumed 22% of all national CCBs. And since those are sprinkled around the country and the majority of Italian cases are in Lombardy, the real bed consumption rate in the affected zones could be 2-4 times higher.

By contrast, Germany has vastly more CCBs (almost 25K) and few reported serious/critical patients. Which means CCB availability is not an issue (at least for now), and is probably at least one reason why the death rate is so much lower. It also suggest that Germany can weather a lot more critical cases before the system is "stretched" and the death rate increases. Something to watch going forward (the same applies to the US).

We keep hearing about "not exceeding healthcare system limits", and this gives a way to analyze and predict what might be coming (i.e. how close is it to Italy)





This is interesting, and I'm confused as I saw earlier posts suggesting a very different situation. Does this take into account how may of those beds are actually being used on a normal basis? The number of actual respirators and other necessary equipment? ( I haven't looked at links as I'm home doing some parenting, but will).

Anyway, I know here there are several proposals to essentially create more using both private care hospitals and even hotels. Best Western have offered their hotels to the NHS and if they can be equipped could provide a lot of secondary space, perhaps for non-critical cases.

In Italy I know part of the problem is that it has been concentrated in one area more.



< Message edited by obvert -- 3/16/2020 7:54:27 AM >


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Post #: 972
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 7:55:28 AM   
Encircled


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From: Northern England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


So odd to say they think in a week or two they'll impose a curfew for over-70s? Maybe this is to let relatives know they need to get them in a good state now before that happens?


I have absolutely no idea. I'm really worried though (both mine and wifes folks in that bracket) as the country has been through a lot (and a lot of trust has gone) in the past five years and I'm not sure that the scale of this has hit home to everyone yet.

But you have to trust the experts, and I just hope that the government are taking the right advice.


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Post #: 973
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 7:56:42 AM   
Encircled


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From: Northern England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

UK now considering voluntary isolation for up to four months for over-70s

Panic buying in full swing sadly, but plenty of stock available

Not sure the UK government are up to it at the moment, but they do appear to be swinging more behind the global effort rather than what looks like a bit of ad-hoc social engineering.



So odd to say they think in a week or two they'll impose a curfew for over-70s? Maybe this is to let relatives know they need to get them in a good state now before that happens?

Yes! They must stock up on condoms now!


I am comfortable knowing my parents did it three times (two sisters) but no more than that!

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Post #: 974
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 8:00:45 AM   
obvert


Posts: 13992
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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Today I'll begin providing a first hand account of life in my part of the UK. I went out yesterday and people were moving about as normal. Few wearing any protective gear. I was only walking in my neighbourhood though.

There are a high proportion of internationals living here, from everywhere. A lot of Eastern Europeans, South Asians, Southern Europeans and some Africans. It feels like many of the shops and cafes and bars catering to international communities are operating as normal, totally full.

Lots of people toting huge bags back from the major Supermarket here, Asda. Huge packs of TP too. We instead went to our favourite Turkish grocery and a minor stock of dried goods, canned goods and a few extra milks for the freezer. We only bought a 4 pack of TP. They'll be open and stocked for the foreseeable future.

We also took our daughtrer to the Olympic park for a bike and scooter expedition. A big 5k run on and lots of heavy breathing, open mouthed people we steered around. Rode by the river for a very nice hour. Parks are good.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 975
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 9:36:36 AM   
Kursk1943


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From: Bavaria in Southern Germany
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We have aleady reached the next phase in Bavaria. This morning our gouverneur announced that public life will be reduced to the minimum. All shops, zoos, gymns, cinemas...will be closed besides supermarkets,banks and pharmacies for at least two weeks.No restrictions for the personal freedom of movement "until further notice".

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Post #: 976
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 11:26:19 AM   
RangerJoe


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Joined: 11/16/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.


Do you have a background that's relevant to vaccines and virology?


Yes, I do. I am a somewhat literate barbarian who can understand and remember some things.

Edit: Why do you ask that question and are you trying to make an issue of something?

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 3/16/2020 11:27:30 AM >


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Post #: 977
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 11:27:13 AM   
RFalvo69


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From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

RFalvo, how're things there today? Good luck.


We had a scare, because my mother-in-law back in Lamezia developed a fever. Luckily our family doctor was available and he diagnosed a simple ear infection - treatable with medicinal drops (it is telling that an ear infection means that you are lucky...)

Regarding the lockdown, the situation for those in forced quarantine is (as I expected) deteriorating. The first days were "easy". Yes, apparently hard, but you felt that you were doing your part to help your country, sacrificing your liberties for the greater good (chest beating). Except that we are not even halfway in this emergency, and it would seem that patriotism is a finite commodity.

Now I look at Twitter, and the trendings are slowly transiting from (I'm translating) #Istayhome, #firstyourhealththenyourliberty, #IamDredd (regarding those "irresponsibles" they saw in the streets outside the window) to #Governmentofshame, #Contegohome and #Theyjailedus. I guess that they run out of shampoo.

I don't know... maybe eight years in the Navy helped me to accept a situation where you have to live for days and days in confined spaces while maintaining absolute hygiene conditions. However, I took as a given that the truly hard part is just starting. You sang your patriotic songs on the balconies and posted the pictures of your cats/dogs "guarding you during the quarantine". Fine. Now endure.

I looked at the Critical Care Beds stats. Regarding the situation in Italy, it is important to remember the deep differences still existing between the North and the South. From what I'm reading and seeing, the North has a number of CCB (per 100,000 inhabitants) comparable with the US - which means that the number of beds in the Center-South is just dire. Once again, "luckily" most cases are concentrated in the North. The last official numbers show 12,272 cases in Lombardy and only 68 in Calabria (on the other end of the peninsula). As you can see, the difference is stunning.

[Talking about statistics, be advised that the discussion in the general forum sadly devolved in a "War of Math" - something about which I'm proud to say that I haven't a clue about what they are talking.]

This afternoon I'll go out again for another round of shopping. If I discover something interesting I'll post about it.

This is a picture of the bus stop near my hotel. I took it two days ago. On a normal day there is a bus every 12 minutes, full of people. Now the bus passes once every hour - with only a few passengers. Also, note the absolute absence of people in the streets.






Attachment (1)

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Post #: 978
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 11:52:49 AM   
obvert


Posts: 13992
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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Here again today the private sector is taking the lead as some theatres begin to announce closures in spite of the financial hit they will take and without govt edicts to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2020/mar/16/coronavirus-uk-theatres-announce-cancellations-old-vic-daniel-radcliffe

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/16/2020 11:53:14 AM >


_____________________________

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Post #: 979
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 2:15:54 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2072
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Regarding the lockdown, the situation for those in forced quarantine is (as I expected) deteriorating. The first days were "easy". Yes, apparently hard, but you felt that you were doing your part to help your country, sacrificing your liberties for the greater good (chest beating). Except that we are not even halfway in this emergency, and it would seem that patriotism is a finite commodity.

Now I look at Twitter, and the trendings are slowly transiting from (I'm translating) #Istayhome, #firstyourhealththenyourliberty, #IamDredd (regarding those "irresponsibles" they saw in the streets outside the window) to #Governmentofshame, #Contegohome and #Theyjailedus. I guess that they run out of shampoo.

I don't know... maybe eight years in the Navy helped me to accept a situation where you have to live for days and days in confined spaces while maintaining absolute hygiene conditions. However, I took as a given that the truly hard part is just starting. You sang your patriotic songs on the balconies and posted the pictures of your cats/dogs "guarding you during the quarantine". Fine. Now endure.


That's a real concern. Lockdowns will be difficult to maintain, especially if they are preemptive, before a country has spiraling cases and death counts. Fear is a good motivator, but the population's ability to "pay now" for future benefits that realistically can be described as "the bad thing that didn't happen"? Well, just look at the savings rate and that gives you some idea of how many (or better, how few) will make that mental calculation. Italy is in dire straights, yet after only a week, you are already seeing the first stages of push-back.

I suspect that going forward, this might also turn into a generational divide - "why should we, the young and healthy - sacrifice our lifestyles for the benefit of some old people"? Anecdotally, I've heard rumblings from young folks I know, and their only hardship is angst about future toilet paper availability.

quote:

I looked at the Critical Care Beds stats. Regarding the situation in Italy, it is important to remember the deep differences still existing between the North and the South. From what I'm reading and seeing, the North has a number of CCB (per 100,000 inhabitants) comparable with the US - which means that the number of beds in the Center-South is just dire. Once again, "luckily" most cases are concentrated in the North. The last official numbers show 12,272 cases in Lombardy and only 68 in Calabria (on the other end of the peninsula). As you can see, the difference is stunning.


Wow! Thanks for the clarification. That unfortunately implies that if this thing starts to take off in the South, there's almost no margin, and even a small uptick in caseload would overwhelm the system and the death rates would spike.

Btw, thanks for your interesting and informative writing. Your first post in the other thread was amazing reading. I shared it with some family members and for the first time I saw an awareness of what this could turn into in the US.

It must be difficult to be separated from your wife and parents and literally unable to do anything to help them. Impossible to go from northern Italy to southern? That hasn't been true since WW2, when there were actual battle lines in place!

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/16/2020 2:17:44 PM >


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Post #: 980
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 2:28:45 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2072
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is interesting, and I'm confused as I saw earlier posts suggesting a very different situation. Does this take into account how may of those beds are actually being used on a normal basis? The number of actual respirators and other necessary equipment? ( I haven't looked at links as I'm home doing some parenting, but will).



Not "how many are available" (since that's a fluctuating number, probably higher in the summer and lower during flu season), but the count per country. The EU and US data is fairly old, unfortunately, but I couldn't a table like this anywhere else.

This is what will drive death rates. When a country exceeds it's available CCB capacity (some amount of which, yes, is already in use for other illnesses and injuries), mortality will get ugly.

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Post #: 981
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 2:40:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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The pandemic is essentially over in China, South Korea, and probably Japan.

Italy is next in terms of "riding the bell-shaped curve." Italy is currently ascending the "discouraging side" of the bell. How long will that increase continue or is it about to begin a downswing? We don't know yet. Any day could bring a change. But every day the number increases is sobering, as it takes that much longer to get back down to a minimal level. (Iran would offer a parallel to Italy, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about the reliability of the numbers coming from Iran.)

Spain (and probably France) are now on the upswing on that discouraging upward trend on the bell-shaped curve. How Italy ultimately fares will help us know how long the bad news will continue in those two countries. Germany and UK might or might not have similar experiences - at the moment, mortality there is significantly lower.

Since Italy has imposed strong countermeasures, followed soon thereafter by most European countries, will that have a dampening effect on the pandemic there? We'll see. It should be noted that Italy has already suffered far more mortality than South Korea.

Thanks to our European "cousins," the USA had the benefit of seeing things develop in Italy, et. al. and to begin taking strong countermeasures relatively early in the ride up the bell-shaped curve. Here, we'll be on the upswing for quite some time but possibly not as steeply nor as long as we would have had Europe not been a week or 10 days ahead of us.

Right now, the news is an unending cycle of calamity or despair, and with some reason. I'm not on social media, but my children and some friends tell me it's even worse there. But some of the underlying numbers look fairly encouraging (South Korea, for instance). We've discussed some of those things in here. If Italy turns in the next week - and I think it probably will - the news cycles will begin to offer some encouraging words. As other countries come to grips with the pandemic and begin to report South Korea-type bell-shaped-curve trends, a sense of optimism will return.

The economic impact of this will be huge, but the optimism/euphoria when the news turns good and when things begin to return to normal will help a bit. (Oil prices were already depressed and are now even more so; production will be curtailed; when things begin ramping back up, production will lag and prices will probably spike.)

I'll be surprised if Europe and the USA don't begin the "hey, are things turning now?" phase in a week or two. Possibly even this week. But I'm no prophet, which is why I don't bet on sporting events or other games of chance.

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 982
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:27:14 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24762
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.


Do you have a background that's relevant to vaccines and virology?

I have read and heard from several authoritative sources that the name given the disease is:
COVID-19 (I've seen use and placement of capital letters and hyphens vary)

The name given the virus itself is:
SARS-CoV-2 (again use and placement of capital letter and hyphens might vary)

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Post #: 983
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:29:03 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24762
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

There's a lot of talk about "hospital bed count", but the important number is "Critical Care Beds". Attached is an interesting chart, showing CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants. With a population of about 60M, that means Italy has 7500 CCBs. The current worlodometers chart says there are 1672 serious/critical Covid-19 cases in Italy, so at a minimum that's consumed 22% of all national CCBs. And since those are sprinkled around the country and the majority of Italian cases are in Lombardy, the real bed consumption rate in the affected zones could be 2-4 times higher.

By contrast, Germany has vastly more CCBs (almost 25K) and few reported serious/critical patients. Which means CCB availability is not an issue (at least for now), and is probably at least one reason why the death rate is so much lower. It also suggest that Germany can weather a lot more critical cases before the system is "stretched" and the death rate increases. Something to watch going forward (the same applies to the US).

We keep hearing about "not exceeding healthcare system limits", and this gives a way to analyze and predict what might be coming (i.e. how close is it to Italy)





This is interesting, and I'm confused as I saw earlier posts suggesting a very different situation. Does this take into account how may of those beds are actually being used on a normal basis? The number of actual respirators and other necessary equipment? ( I haven't looked at links as I'm home doing some parenting, but will).

Anyway, I know here there are several proposals to essentially create more using both private care hospitals and even hotels. Best Western have offered their hotels to the NHS and if they can be equipped could provide a lot of secondary space, perhaps for non-critical cases.

In Italy I know part of the problem is that it has been concentrated in one area more.

In one of the interviews I posted a link to I heard them say the US has fewer ICU bed per population than many countries. Is it possible the "critical care" count used here has a wider definition than what is usually tallied as "ICU"?

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Post #: 984
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:32:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here's Chickenboy's analysis from page one (Feb. 26). It makes interesting reading, from our own in-house expert.

I think that Chickenboy would modify some of his thoughts with the benefit of an additional three weeks of information, but if you read back through his comments, the man knows his stuff.

I wish he would post more.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I believe that this virus and disease will have a similar trajectory to that of MERS/SARS some 17 years ago. Coronaviruses are not Orthomyxoviruses (influenza) and act differently in transmissiblity and mutation rates, so again the MERS/SARS analog is probably more useful than H1N1 (1918; 2009) or other seasonal influenzas.

In the case of MERS/SARS, the virus circulated amongst mainland China for some time before diagnosed, a bit longer before there was recognition of it by central authorities and then longer yet before there was even a haphazard and incomplete response. International spread was a feature of the disease. Here's a very interesting and concise timeline from the CDC's website:

https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

To whit: The disease ran rampant in China for a while. Then it spread internationally. Cases that were not laboratory-confirmed were later re-stated (see entry for July 2003) and halved. In between, the overreaction to cases was addressed (de-stigmatization of SARS) and travel advisories lifted after a few months.

A curious thing about the SARS virus was how it disappeared after a year or so. No isolates were recovered post-2004. Poof. Gone. NIH states that the disappearance was due to quarantine and isolation of affected cases and-of course-due to the research money poured into NIH on interventional strategies.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses

COVID-19 does behave somewhat differently in the human host (replicates higher in the respiratory tract versus deeper in the lungs like SARS) and therefore may spread more readily. By nature of its replication patterns, it will also probably have a lower case fatality rate. That's exempting the exacerbatory effects of other co-pathogens (COVID-19 PLUS influenza, streptococcal pneumonia, TB, asthma, emphysema, other respiratory disease in the same patient) of course. I have not seen *any* efforts to parse the effects of COVID-19 from other co-pathogen effects in infected, but this is likely one of the rationale for making sure to get one's annual flu vaccine ASAP if you haven't already done so.

Viruses spread more readily when they make one sick, but aren't fatal. Paradoxically, the sicker people are with a particular virus, the easier it is to diagnose and ultimately contain. The Los Angeles Times had a nice article on this a couple weeks ago.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-18/sars-coronavirus-china-epidemic

What do I think will happen? Something more akin to SARS, albeit with a more significant global spread in the interim. I expect the peak of this will probably not be too far off and that, with the onset of warmer weather in most of the Northern Hemisphere it will abate. I would be surprised if we heard much about this 12 months from now, excepting in cooler climates (you listening, Oz land?) as they slip into their annual influenza cycle.

The economic and social impacts on our increasingly globally connected supply chains are a totally 'nuther question. I'm limiting my observations to the disease cycle and virus longevity in our public per se.








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Post #: 985
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:48:49 PM   
Canoerebel


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Partial tallies today.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 986
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 3:57:11 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
In one of the interviews I posted a link to I heard them say the US has fewer ICU bed per population than many countries. Is it possible the "critical care" count used here has a wider definition than what is usually tallied as "ICU"?


From what I've seen, we in the US have fewer hospital beds per capita than many other developed countries, but far more critical care beds per capita.

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Post #: 987
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 4:03:47 PM   
Canoerebel


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Why do we have far fewer? That seems counter-intuitive. Are we able to project needs better? Are we, on average, less in need of hospital beds? Are some beds re-purposed easily? Are more of our cases handled through assisted living, home healthcare, or rehab?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 4:05:58 PM   
Kull


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Let's take a closer look at Italy. The map (#1 on the attachment) shows the various regions, and then we have two charts showing cases and deaths by region, as of March 15 (yesterday).

I've highlighted in red the provinces of "Northern Italy", which is where the vast majority of cases and deaths are happening. Specifically, 88% of all cases and 93% of all deaths are in Northern Italy. Also worth noting that as a percentage of cases, the death rates are appalling; 7.8% in the north and 4.5% in the south.

This is something we need to watch in days to come - how many new cases will arise in the south? Did the lockdown happen in time, or did all the refugees from the north bring enough early stage infections with them that we'll see numbers blossom in those regions? And what about the north - how long until we see the effects of the lockdown? And what happens to the death rates? Drop? Rise? Stay constant? We'll see.

Edit: Ooops! Included "Marche" in the northern Italy cases, but not the deaths (it is not part of northern italy). That has a NOTICEABLE impact on the percentages, and modifies this sentence to read: "Specifically, 83% of all cases and 93% of all deaths are in Northern Italy. Also worth noting that as a percentage of cases, the death rates are appalling; 8.2% in the north and 3.3% in the south".

That is a MUCH larger delta between the regional mortality rates.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/16/2020 4:15:47 PM >


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Post #: 989
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/16/2020 4:16:42 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Let's take a closer look at Italy. The map (#1 on the attachment) shows the various regions, and then we have two charts showing cases and deaths by region, as of March 15 (yesterday).

I've highlighted in red the provinces of "Northern Italy", which is where the vast majority of cases and deaths are happening. Specifically, 88% of all cases and 93% of all deaths are in Northern Italy. Also worth noting that as a percentage of cases, the death rates are appalling; 7.8% in the north and 4.5% in the south.

This is something we need to watch in days to come - how many new cases will arise in the south? Did the lockdown happen in time, or did all the refugees from the north bring enough early stage infections with them that we'll see numbers blossom in those regions? And what about the north - how long until we see the effects of the lockdown? And what happens to the death rates? Drop? Rise? Stay constant? We'll see.


Also, just looking at the currently published number for Italy as a whole, Italy has 409 total cases per 1 million population. Even just in the north, there is a very large pool of people in place who might already be in those early stages of infection as you mention, or about to become infected.

This is very sobering when you think about the percentages of the population which WHO officials and other health officials have estimated might become exposed and/or infected over the coming months (even out to 2 years).

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