From: PDX (and now) London, UK
I've talked "relentlessly." That doesn't sound good.
Dan, we're friends, we respect each other and we disagree. That happens a lot, but please don't alter words. I spent some time on my English major and words are important.
You "have posted relentlessly" in order to try to maintain a calm, patient and hopeful attitude. I respect that but there are points at which I believe we need to be worried. We need to alter behaviour. We need to look at objective facts, not just look for positive trends to stave off our fear or convince others not to fear.
That doctor's post I just read above outlines why that is important now. You, I know will be responsible, but those who are calmed and reassured that I don't know may not be as careful.
The outbreak in the USA didn't really start the big upward curve until the first of March. From late January until then it was mostly confined to Washington State and a few pockets in California. Little testing was done, but people weren't getting sick nor were there hospitalizations.
You keep saying this but it started before Jan 21 and we don't know how many people had it. A genetics test from Stanford (IIRC) stated that they determined there were already upwards of 9,000 cases in the US according to their research a few weeks ago.
Without testing we don't know when the real "big upward curve" began. That's only about positive test results. Many early cases, probably the usual percentage of mild cases, were thought to not be Covid because no one knew it was passing in the community.
China had it for two months before they began to experience exponential growth. Then it took drastic measures that have apparently worked. I am indeed optimistic about the quality of healthcare in the USA. There's no place I'd rather be in a pandemic.
It was growing fast in other parts of the world a week or ten days before it began exponential growth in the US. Europe is currently well ahead of the USA - a week or two. We learned and have taken action fairly quickly now. Maybe not enough, but things are beginning to roll fast now.
I see all kinds of information in numbers and trends. This is a medical problem with quantifiable trends. So it's interesting to search for those trends.
I remain optimistic. This seems to grate against those who are relentlessly pessimistic. It is a subset of that group whose conduct has been questionable in here, ranging from vicious to unthoughtful to contemptuous. Why is there a subset of people who will not tolerate different viewpoints? Why does the expression of contrary views agitate so much? Would yo uprefer that I keep my opinions to myself? Should I surrender them to the wisdom of those who see this otherwise? Is it better that I withdraw from the thread I started among a community I've been part of 18 years? Can we all march in lock-step?
I can start a new thread called "For Those Who are Open-Minded, Optimistic, or Neutral. Beware Those Who Aren't."
I'm a realist with hope. I hope people act, change behaviour, and do what's necessary to make a change in their lifestyles, workplaces and social structures to combat this threat. This has nothing to do with tolerance. It has to do with a disagreement of strategy around the communication and interpretation of data. It is objective, and based on research, not only opinion.
My hope is that indeed, some of this changes you. Being on the optimistic side and realising at some point that this is a bigger crisis than you may have imagined is okay. It's humbling, but it's okay. We may never agree but you have to realise that this has nothing to do with tolerance, it's actually part of good human communication. We learn by disagreeing and defending positions.
I know you know this and don't want to come off as combative. Just defending a position I believe and see the difficulty in how you've represented your position based on the facts.
I REALLY hope I'm wrong, and you're right, but the evidence doesn't support that right now. Please, Dan, please be right.
< Message edited by obvert -- 3/14/2020 5:49:27 PM >
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill