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RE: OT: Corona virus

 
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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/13/2020 11:21:09 PM   
ushakov

 

Posts: 35
Joined: 4/3/2017
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Here's one of the unfortunate knock-on effects - rural areas being left without much in the way of medical services when their few medical professionals fall ill and/or self-isolate. I fear the US may be especially vulnerable to this, given the low population density in many states and accelerated closure of rural hospitals in the past decade:

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1238504984918065155

"The one doctor in Clay County, GA, has shut her clinic. She tells me, "Have a headache and achy today, no fever yet, so closed the office. We just got the test kits so I did one. Guy just called with 104 temp, directed him to ER." The ER is an hour drive away from town and around half the residents of Clay County, who are poor and elderly, don’t have the money or the transport to make such a long trip to the Emergency Room. They’re stuck."

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 781
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/13/2020 11:26:17 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15266
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans

I was able to buy a lot of food, but things are going to get creative once I finish my last TP roll in a few days

I have some tuna cans in the back of my cupboards that you are welcome to have - gratis! I think I got them about 15 years ago ...
As for the TP, don't you get flyers in your mailbox? It's the modern version of the Sears and Roebuck catalogue! Between the colored inks and rough corners your backside should challenge a baboon's in no time!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 782
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/13/2020 11:44:55 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


Posts: 4224
Joined: 2/29/2012
From: Toronto and Lima
Status: offline
you know what was funny; only the "standard" tuna or bean cans were out of stock; more exotic ones like sardines in olive oil, those with "the whole fish" in the can were still plentiful, I guess people in Toronto is not adventurous enough, not even in times of crisis, lol

and that is an interesting alternative; we will see once I run out of paper towel



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Post #: 783
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/13/2020 11:45:27 PM   
spence

 

Posts: 5293
Joined: 4/20/2003
From: Vancouver, Washington
Status: offline
quote:

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans


You really need to try what's in the cans; even if you hate fish it tastes better.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 784
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/13/2020 11:46:41 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15266
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ushakov

Here's one of the unfortunate knock-on effects - rural areas being left without much in the way of medical services when their few medical professionals fall ill and/or self-isolate. I fear the US may be especially vulnerable to this, given the low population density in many states and accelerated closure of rural hospitals in the past decade:

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1238504984918065155

"The one doctor in Clay County, GA, has shut her clinic. She tells me, "Have a headache and achy today, no fever yet, so closed the office. We just got the test kits so I did one. Guy just called with 104 temp, directed him to ER." The ER is an hour drive away from town and around half the residents of Clay County, who are poor and elderly, don’t have the money or the transport to make such a long trip to the Emergency Room. They’re stuck."

Hopefully most folks have relatives or a good neighbour with a vehicle that they can call on, although the threat of the disease might make some reluctant. If the ill person sits in the back seat and breaths through a cloth or tissues the risk to the driver should be tolerable. Dr. Sanjay Gupta explained yesterday that the COVID-19 virus does not attach to dust particles and linger in the air the way some do. Instead it goes outward between 3 and 6 feet and drops to the surface where it usually deactivates quickly. Using something to stop projection of the breath should help a great deal.

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 3/13/2020 11:47:22 PM >


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Post #: 785
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/13/2020 11:59:24 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7709
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

TAR and FEATHERS!!!


Couple Makes More Than $100,000 Reselling Lysol Wipes Amid Coronavirus Fears: “We’re Hustlers”

https://balleralert.com/profiles/blogs/couple-makes-more-than-100k-reselling-lysol-wipes-amid-coronavirus/

"A Vancouver couple is capitalizing on the growing hysteria surrounding the spread of coronavirus.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

According to The Star, Manny Ranga and his wife Violeta Perez parked their Ford F-150 outside of a Costco near downtown Vancouver this week with stacks upon stacks of “Lysol disinfecting wipes.”

The couple claimed they’ve made over $100,000 so far with their “business model.” They hit up each Costco retailer within the area, and racked up on as many Lysol wipes and liquid cleaners they could get their hands on, spending thousands of dollars at a time and then reselling them on Amazon under their vendor name “Violeta & Sons Buying and Selling, Ltd.”

Ranga revealed that one $20 six-pack of wipes could fetch 4 times as much online. The couple stocked their valued wipes in a storage area on their property, and in turn, resold them for $89."


What you have described is a business enterprise, and the couple should have registered their business with local authorities and prepared books of their activity for the IRS so they can pay the appropriate taxes. If they have not done so, I hope they get caught. This is a smaller version of that Pharmacy company CEO who jacked up the price of Epi-pens (adrenalin for allergic reactions) by 6X just because his company held a monopoly on the product. It's immoral and probably illegal somewhere in the laws and precedents of the country.


The person who ran/runs the company who jacked up the price of Epi-pens is a woman. You should look her up and see who her parents are and what they do. You could also look up what she has donated money to as well.

The couple, if they are running their business out of their home, could also run afoul of residential/business ordinance codes. Especially if their home is in a residential only area.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 786
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 1:56:44 AM   
Kull


Posts: 2091
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
Why buy toilet paper? Grow your own!

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Post #: 787
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 2:00:35 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9126
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

TAR and FEATHERS!!!


Couple Makes More Than $100,000 Reselling Lysol Wipes Amid Coronavirus Fears: “We’re Hustlers”

https://balleralert.com/profiles/blogs/couple-makes-more-than-100k-reselling-lysol-wipes-amid-coronavirus/

"A Vancouver couple is capitalizing on the growing hysteria surrounding the spread of coronavirus.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

According to The Star, Manny Ranga and his wife Violeta Perez parked their Ford F-150 outside of a Costco near downtown Vancouver this week with stacks upon stacks of “Lysol disinfecting wipes.”

The couple claimed they’ve made over $100,000 so far with their “business model.” They hit up each Costco retailer within the area, and racked up on as many Lysol wipes and liquid cleaners they could get their hands on, spending thousands of dollars at a time and then reselling them on Amazon under their vendor name “Violeta & Sons Buying and Selling, Ltd.”

Ranga revealed that one $20 six-pack of wipes could fetch 4 times as much online. The couple stocked their valued wipes in a storage area on their property, and in turn, resold them for $89."


What you have described is a business enterprise, and the couple should have registered their business with local authorities and prepared books of their activity for the IRS so they can pay the appropriate taxes. If they have not done so, I hope they get caught. This is a smaller version of that Pharmacy company CEO who jacked up the price of Epi-pens (adrenalin for allergic reactions) by 6X just because his company held a monopoly on the product. It's immoral and probably illegal somewhere in the laws and precedents of the country.


Actually, you don't need to register as a business if you are a sole proprietor.

As long as they just claim it as "other income" on their tax return, they're completely above board as far as taxes are concerned.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 788
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 2:35:34 AM   
Jorge_Stanbury


Posts: 4224
Joined: 2/29/2012
From: Toronto and Lima
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Why buy toilet paper? Grow your own!


or maybe follow advice #4: "use smooth stones", which are, I guess, 100% reusable!

but no, we are armchair generals here, not survivalist Rambos, we need our city comforts

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Post #: 789
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 2:40:15 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
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According to John Hopkins link, looks like yesterday was the highest day on record for new confirmed cases (16.2k)

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Post #: 790
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 2:43:42 AM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline
When it comes to testing, this is the kind of stuff that I've been hearing - just hard for people to get a test when they ask for it... Does anyone have any reports of easily walking into a hospital or doctor's office to get tested?



https://www.boredpanda.com/sick-man-coronavirus-getting-tested-usa/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic




Attachment (1)

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DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

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Post #: 791
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 3:36:07 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 24926
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans

I was able to buy a lot of food, but things are going to get creative once I finish my last TP roll in a few days


Maybe I should take my limited resources, buy toilet paper, and resell it . . .

Personally, I like wide, soft, damp leaves when I am out in the woods . . .
But NO leaflets of three . . .

Out here leaves look like this.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 792
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 3:49:48 AM   
Anachro


Posts: 2502
Joined: 11/23/2015
From: The Coastal Elite
Status: offline
Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 793
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 4:31:46 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans

I was able to buy a lot of food, but things are going to get creative once I finish my last TP roll in a few days


Maybe I should take my limited resources, buy toilet paper, and resell it . . .

Personally, I like wide, soft, damp leaves when I am out in the woods . . .
But NO leaflets of three . . .

Out here leaves look like this.





Haha well I guess there is always second opinion...

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 794
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 4:50:51 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15266
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

According to John Hopkins link, looks like yesterday was the highest day on record for new confirmed cases (16.2k)

I presume that figure is worldwide. I am sure a lot of second and third world nations are just starting to get the capacity to test and know their numbers. Heaven knows how many may try and hide or downplay their numbers to encourage tourists to visit. During my 10 days in Jamaica there was no information on COVID-19 in that nation, although cruise ships were visiting and a steady stream of aircraft brought in visitors from many nations. I returned Feb. 27th when western governments were just starting to take major measures to find and isolate cases.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 795
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 6:04:47 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7709
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans

I was able to buy a lot of food, but things are going to get creative once I finish my last TP roll in a few days


Maybe I should take my limited resources, buy toilet paper, and resell it . . .

Personally, I like wide, soft, damp leaves when I am out in the woods . . .
But NO leaflets of three . . .

Out here leaves look like this.





Haha well I guess there is always second opinion...



Burn the needles off, eat the fruit as well as the insides of the cactus.

The Romans used sponges on a stick . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 796
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 6:50:58 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 2548
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Sydney
Status: offline
Meanwhile down here:

quote:

As at 06:30 hrs on 14 March 2020, there were 197 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), including 3 deaths, in Australia.


Notwithstanding reasonably successful containment to date, some people are panic buying toilet rolls and pasta, to the point that supermarket chains are restricting sales per customer.

The latter is the fault of the sensationalist media, and also a result of people conflating what is going on overseas with what is (not) happening here at this point.

As to the former, there were steps taken at an early stage to test and where needed quarantine incoming travelers, together with wide ranging testing being made available. We are at the point now where sports events are being played without fans in the stadium; agricultural; shows (fairs) and the like are being cancelled. The government advisory is no gatherings of >500 persons, and a majority citizens are voluntarily adhering to that. The government has just activated a AU$2.4 billion health care plan which you can read about here: https://www.health.gov.au/resources/collections/coronavirus-covid-19-national-health-plan-resources .

On an anecdotal level, I have acquaintances who, usually, spent some working hours working from home, and now doing that full time, and avoiding the office. Often this is an employer directed course of action. Handwashing supplies are being made available all about the place. Some people are walking around with masks on, despite this being not recommended for healthy people. I've noticed people at my gym washing their hands more, and helping wiping down the surfaces of the machines, etc. We'd like to think that taking early steps, and being aware of what daily measures to take, has positioned us to ride this out.

Or maybe it's just that its been hot.


_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
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Ian R

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Post #: 797
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 6:59:04 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 2548
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Sydney
Status: offline
The worrying aspect of the figures quoted below, is that Iran may be significantly under-reported at this time:

quote:

Across the world, there have been more than 140,500 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) and more than 5,300 reported deaths.

Since the beginning of the outbreak, the majority of cases (80,981) and deaths (3,173) associated with COVID-19 have been reported from mainland China.

There have been more than 59,600 cases, including approximately 2,100 deaths, reported from 125 countries and regions outside mainland China.

The majority of deaths outside mainland China have been in Italy and Iran.


_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 798
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 7:20:25 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 2548
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Sydney
Status: offline
Testing figures:

This page contains some testing figures, with a column showing tests per 1m population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

It should be noted that China and Iran are not included.

Translating that to 3 bands -

4 countries are/were testing more than 1 in 1,000 people - South Korea, Italy and Hong Kong, all understandable; and Bahrain is fairly adjacent to Iran, and may have a large contingent of Iranian workers in country.

8 countries are/were testing more than 1 in 10,000 people. They unsurprisingly include a few of countries adjacent to Italy, 2 of which are testing more than 1 in 5,000.

The others listed are less than 1 in 10,000.

What I find extraordinary is that the US is/was testing only 26 people per million. That is less than 1/10th of the per capita rate in Israel.

In Israel, the reaction to a spike in cases has been immediate and decisive - this is what is happening:

quote:

Coronavirus Cases in Israel Spike to 143, Nearly 2,500 Medical Officials Quarantined

Israel shutters schools over coronavirus, to set up mass facilities for mild cases ■ Government considering ordering closure of non-essential businesses ■ Indoor events of over 100 people banned ■ West Bank has 35 confirmed cases ... All foreigners are not be allowed into Israel, unless they can prove they are able to self-quarantine for 14 days upon their arrival.


_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

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Post #: 799
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 11:19:28 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7861
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Coronavirus is most contagious before and during the first week of symptoms https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms

'People stop making infectious virus once the body’s antibody response kicks in'

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Post #: 800
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 12:15:53 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7709
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

The worrying aspect of the figures quoted below, is that Iran may be significantly under-reported at this time:

quote:

Across the world, there have been more than 140,500 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) and more than 5,300 reported deaths.

Since the beginning of the outbreak, the majority of cases (80,981) and deaths (3,173) associated with COVID-19 have been reported from mainland China.

There have been more than 59,600 cases, including approximately 2,100 deaths, reported from 125 countries and regions outside mainland China.

The majority of deaths outside mainland China have been in Italy and Iran.



From: Satellite images show Iran building burial pits, expanding cemetery for coronavirus victims
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/satellite-images-show-iran-building-burial-pits-expanding-cemetery-for-coronavirus-victims/

quote:

Iran has been rapidly expanding a major cemetery in Qom, the area worst hit by the country’s novel coronavirus outbreak, satellite images obtained by CNN reveal.

The country has reported at least 10,075 confirmed coronavirus cases and 429 deaths, the third-highest number of cases after mainland China and Italy.

The satellite images from March 1 and March 8, put out by Maxar Technologies, appear to show an increase in activity inside the Behesht-e Masoumeh cemetery in Qom. The images show what looks like two fresh trenches of graves on March 1, with more excavation after that.


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 801
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 1:30:46 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24926
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.



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Post #: 802
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 1:47:40 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7709
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 803
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 1:47:59 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24926
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: online
Chinese government knew about coronavirus one month earlier than it claimed: report
quote:

Government documents seen by the South China Morning Post show the first reported case of COVID-19 surfaced on November 17. Scientists believe that a 55-year-old person from Hubei, a province in central China, could be "patient zero" though that has not yet been confirmed.


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Post #: 804
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 1:53:05 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14029
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In the USA, many school systems have already closed. We've postponed or cancelled major events. We've limited travel. In some ways, the US has responded more quickly than European countries because we've had the benefit of seeing what they're experiencing and how they're dealing with it. Europe is about three weeks into this; we're about ten days into hit.


The first case I the US was Jan. 21 in the Seattle area. From the time of your post that's almost exactly seven weeks.

On top of that there were no tests at that time for the majority of people who had symptoms, so the first case may have been even sooner, and we have no idea how many there were in WA.

South Korea's first case was on Jan 20. So both the US and SK had the example of the Chinese model to slow the disease and only one country followed that example. For whatever reason, testing in the US has been a disaster.

The private sector closed events and stopped large groups. The travel ban came 6-7 weeks after the first case, long after community transmission was rampant throughout the US, rendering it completely meaningless.

quote:



We have a federal system of government. Localities, states, and some federal departments have responded more quickly than others. Overall, the ramp-up in the past two days has been marked. That's good.

In Georgia, the governor authorized each school system to respond as it felt appropriate, encouraging them to consider closing. Many systems in and near affected areas are already closed. Some in more rural and isolated regions have the latitude to try to work around upcoming spring breaks, to smooth out the process. This might not work perfectly, but across the state school superintendents seem to appreciate the flexibility to handle it locally. Most will likely err on the side of acting quickly to minimize the possibility of making the wrong call.



It is exactly this partial and haphazard locally designed methods of countering the outbreak that will fail. The virus doesn't recognise county, state of even national boundaries.

You have posted relentlessly on the example of China and how their numbers have flattened. If you're meaning to use that as an example of what we'll see elsewhere then the only way it will happen is to follow their steps of limiting transmissions.

s the US building new hospitals in 10 days? Is the US setting up quarantine centers to isolate large numbers of infected individuals away from the family and communities? Is the US testing relentlessly, sometimes door to door? Are state borders closed with temperature checkpoints? Are whole industries, including factories and all non-essential businesses closed? Are people required to stay at home at risk of being arrested, for up to 3-4 weeks?

I could go on, but the only countries doing anything similar to China are South Korea and now Italy.

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Post #: 805
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 1:57:35 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14029
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




There has been some recent scientific evidence that a combination of sunlight, temperature (tested at above 86F) and high humidity might slow Covid transmission. It is thought that with social distancing and other limiting factors in place the warm months cold still have an impact of slowing, not necessarily stopping, transmission.

I don't have the link now but will look.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 806
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 1:59:52 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24926
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.

He talked about it with respect to SARS as well. The first 15 minutes (which Erik linked) was great, the full interview (about 2 hours, which I linked) I do recommend.

_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 807
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 2:22:20 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7709
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.

He talked about it with respect to SARS as well. The first 15 minutes (which Erik linked) was great, the full interview (about 2 hours, which I linked) I do recommend.


Yes, I listened to the full interview and that is where I got that information from.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 808
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 2:24:47 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 7709
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In the USA, many school systems have already closed. We've postponed or cancelled major events. We've limited travel. In some ways, the US has responded more quickly than European countries because we've had the benefit of seeing what they're experiencing and how they're dealing with it. Europe is about three weeks into this; we're about ten days into hit.


The first case I the US was Jan. 21 in the Seattle area. From the time of your post that's almost exactly seven weeks.

On top of that there were no tests at that time for the majority of people who had symptoms, so the first case may have been even sooner, and we have no idea how many there were in WA.

South Korea's first case was on Jan 20. So both the US and SK had the example of the Chinese model to slow the disease and only one country followed that example. For whatever reason, testing in the US has been a disaster.

The private sector closed events and stopped large groups. The travel ban came 6-7 weeks after the first case, long after community transmission was rampant throughout the US, rendering it completely meaningless.

quote:



We have a federal system of government. Localities, states, and some federal departments have responded more quickly than others. Overall, the ramp-up in the past two days has been marked. That's good.

In Georgia, the governor authorized each school system to respond as it felt appropriate, encouraging them to consider closing. Many systems in and near affected areas are already closed. Some in more rural and isolated regions have the latitude to try to work around upcoming spring breaks, to smooth out the process. This might not work perfectly, but across the state school superintendents seem to appreciate the flexibility to handle it locally. Most will likely err on the side of acting quickly to minimize the possibility of making the wrong call.



It is exactly this partial and haphazard locally designed methods of countering the outbreak that will fail. The virus doesn't recognise county, state of even national boundaries.

You have posted relentlessly on the example of China and how their numbers have flattened. If you're meaning to use that as an example of what we'll see elsewhere then the only way it will happen is to follow their steps of limiting transmissions.

s the US building new hospitals in 10 days? Is the US setting up quarantine centers to isolate large numbers of infected individuals away from the family and communities? Is the US testing relentlessly, sometimes door to door? Are state borders closed with temperature checkpoints? Are whole industries, including factories and all non-essential businesses closed? Are people required to stay at home at risk of being arrested, for up to 3-4 weeks?

I could go on, but the only countries doing anything similar to China are South Korea and now Italy.


The United States is not China. We have a different governmental system and are much more spread out than China and Western Europe. Unless it is a stated emergency what you are suggesting is not allowable in the United States.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 809
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/14/2020 2:34:06 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24926
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.




From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.

He talked about it with respect to SARS as well. The first 15 minutes (which Erik linked) was great, the full interview (about 2 hours, which I linked) I do recommend.


Yes, I listened to the full interview and that is where I got that information from.

As I recall, in that sequence he mentioned its relationship to MERS after mentioning its relationship to SARS. The MERS comment was about MERS transmission in high temperatures as an example of COVID-19 not necessarily being stymied by high temperatures.

But, while he did say at the time he did not see anything in the data that suggested warmer temps would slow it down, he also said it was too early to tell. And he was obviously going on what he had seen by the time of the interview; continued research and data might tell more. Of course as temps warm up that will tell a lot.

_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 810
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