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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 2:49:48 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Can we please focus on the main topic only?


Good luck with that.

(in reply to Orm)
Post #: 7891
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 2:52:05 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Admiral DadMan

This thread is beginning to wobble off course from the Subject "Corona virus".

Please institute a course correction and resume normal navigation.

Thank you.


POLITICAL ICEBERG RIGHT AHEAD!

(in reply to Admiral DadMan)
Post #: 7892
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:04:29 PM   
obvert


Posts: 13992
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Science under attack again. For those with other axes to grind the publicity around scientific input concerning this pandemic is just another chance to create doubt about the validity of the scientific process itself.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/us-conservatives-who-detest-climate-models-add-new-target-coronavirus-models#

"Models are absolutely fundamental to doing any kind of science, and so people that rag on models without being specific about what it is they are even talking about are just really betraying that they don't understand how science works," said climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, an author of that paper and the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Nonetheless, conservative pundits, who are not trained as climate scientists, have repurposed the coronavirus modeling to attack climate projections in recent days.

"It seems like the computer models for the corona virus pandemic are about as accurate as the computer models that have failed so miserably on global warming," tweeted Patrick Moore, the chairman of the CO2 Coalition, which claims the world needs to burn more fossil fuels to help the planet and has connections to the Trump White House. "Proves you can't predict a chaotic, multi-factor, non-linear future."

------------------------

Dismissing critics who don't understand or who misrepresent models will be important as states look for the best ways to reopen around the country, health experts say.

The last few weeks are proof that modeling works, said Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association. Without their guidance, more people would have died, more economic harm would have occurred and greater health care cost burdens would have been placed on the system, he said.

"The models become even more important now because we're going to need to know when we should adjust our reopening," he said. "We're going to need these models to help us know, as some kind of early warning, when we should stop and pause or pull back a little bit, because if we don't, what will happen is we will get too far down the line and things will get much worse before they get better."


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7893
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:09:56 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
I did an experiment at the hospital to see if you could spoof an IR thermometer (used for non-touch screening). The thing relies on IR radiation given off at the skin surface. They scan over the temporal area because the temporal artery runs there and is quite superficial so it is a more accurate estimate of core body temperature (arterial blood tends to be warmer because it just came from the heart). I went there 5 days in a row, each day aiming the A/C vents in the Stinger more closely at my face. 98.1...97.8...97.5..97.3 and the last day I stuck my temporal area right over the A/C vent and cranked it up to the Everest setting for 3-4 min then I walked quickly to the screener dude...95.3!!! That is where most of the rescued crew of Bismark was right before the Royal Navy gave them brandy to "warm them up"...which caused vasodilation and then sudden death from arrhythmias.

So, if you think you have COVID but really want to go to the Lakers game you put some ice packs on our temples before you get screened.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7894
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:12:49 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
"science under attack"

Did you not just see what the nice moderator man said?

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7895
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:23:47 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3036
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
I'm kind of hoping this thing dies back in the summer like the flu does. Lock-downs, isolation and similar measures seems to have helped too. We had a good run in most places but we are getting some spikes in the last day or so. Texas has not had a good couple of days. So I drilled down on the particulars and notice the numbers going up in the Texas panhandle. Now that is odd and it conflicts with my general observations that Covid likes people packed into tight spaces and the more rural you got the less likely it was to reach you area in large numbers. I don't know much about Texas but I do know the Panhandle is certainly not an urban hotspot. Cut to the chase......It is the meat packing plants again. Amarillo https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Massive-jump-in-Texas-COVID-19-cases-15275484.php

_____________________________

Art comforts the disturbed and disturbs the comfortable.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7896
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:35:46 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
If bad actors had not considered the Coronaviridae as biological weapons they will now.

You take COVID-19 which is already quite nasty and you use CRISPER technology to alter the spike protein host attachment region RNA to give it a designer attachment point on the host cell. This will essentially render most immunity to COVID-19 moot. Maybe you use an Influenza binding site (Hemagglutinin) but use an influenza strain with low natural immunity in the population and not in vaccines recently. Then you make influenza vaccine with the appropriate HA antigen and you secretly immunize your population and then you turn the damn thing loose after the WHO has picked the Influenza antigens for the season and production has started.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7897
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:41:07 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I'm kind of hoping this thing dies back in the summer like the flu does. Lock-downs, isolation and similar measures seems to have helped too. We had a good run in most places but we are getting some spikes in the last day or so. Texas has not had a good couple of days. So I drilled down on the particulars and notice the numbers going up in the Texas panhandle. Now that is odd and it conflicts with my general observations that Covid likes people packed into tight spaces and the more rural you got the less likely it was to reach you area in large numbers. I don't know much about Texas but I do know the Panhandle is certainly not an urban hotspot. Cut to the chase......It is the meat packing plants again. Amarillo https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Massive-jump-in-Texas-COVID-19-cases-15275484.php


Man, that is a big jump. What the Chicoms would do is shut down Amarillo. Nobody in or out. Shut down Interstate 40. Make everyone take a big detour.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7898
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:42:12 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
There is a new strain of Corona virus. It's spread by singing. It's called Crooner virus.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7899
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:47:02 PM   
obvert


Posts: 13992
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"science under attack"

Did you not just see what the nice moderator man said?


Read the post.

Just above someone has again had a go at models for being mistaken, coding for being badly written, and lockdowns as a result being a mistake. So science is part of this dialogue, and when someone calls into question the very basis of operating as a scientist, I'll post back about that. Sorry, it's very relevant.

Happy to forward your next racist or political post to the moderator for approval, or just look back for the 80 you've already written.


< Message edited by obvert -- 5/17/2020 3:50:29 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7900
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:51:06 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 18493
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Mayor De Blasio Says NYC Will Not Reopen Beaches For Memorial Day Weekend, May Deploy Fencing If Necessary

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/17/mayor-de-blasio-says-nyc-will-not-reopen-beaches-for-memorial-day-weekend-may-deploy-fencing-if-necessary/

I guess a fair number might be heading to the Jersey Shore. Pennsylvanians's are urged by the Sec. of Health not to go, but I suspect few will cancel their shore plans. Just a hunch.

From New York Good news:
People admitted to hospitals for suspected COVID-19 is unchanged at 77
People in ICUs down to 469 from 506
Percentage of people testing positive down to 11% from 13%

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7901
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 3:51:24 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

I think a lot more people can succeed than currently are. I think a big part of that comes down to a quality education, which not enough people are getting for various reasons which I will leave alone to avoid going completely OT on the OT. Until recently in the US there was always a shortage of coders, nurses, etc.


I completely agree!

This is in fact veering more toward on this particular topic. I posted recently about one of the most successful efforts to fight Covid worldwide which is in a state in India, Kerala. The health minister, a former teacher, has instilled that education is a component of the health program. Literacy especially is at a high rate in the state due to her efforts, and she has completely squashed Covid transmission there by educating, testing, isolating and tracing.


Not just a teacher but a science teacher. That gave her some background in the sciences which probably helped a lot in understanding this mess. She also had smaller groups working for specific parts of the state, which then coordinated with her main office.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7902
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 4:06:18 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22032
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"science under attack"

Did you not just see what the nice moderator man said?


Read the post.

Just above someone has again had a go at models for being mistaken, coding for being badly written, and lockdowns as a result being a mistake. So science is part of this dialogue, and when someone calls into question the very basis of operating as a scientist, I'll post back about that. Sorry, it's very relevant.

Happy to forward your next racist or political post to the moderator for approval, or just look back for the 80 you've already written.



"racist"???? <starts to cry>

Look, if there is a coding error in a model and it affects the mathematics, criticism of the model is not "anti-science". It's just criticism. And don't come back at me that I didn't read the article...I didn't. It doesn't interest me. Neither is invoking an analogy "anti-science". It's just an analogy. If you weren't wound up so tight you might even think it funny...because it is.

We all know who you were attacking with your "anti-science" meme. Hope the baby is doing well. Are you getting any sleep?

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7903
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 4:17:08 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3036
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mayor De Blasio Says NYC Will Not Reopen Beaches For Memorial Day Weekend, May Deploy Fencing If Necessary

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/17/mayor-de-blasio-says-nyc-will-not-reopen-beaches-for-memorial-day-weekend-may-deploy-fencing-if-necessary/

I guess a fair number might be heading to the Jersey Shore. Pennsylvanians's are urged by the Sec. of Health not to go, but I suspect few will cancel their shore plans. Just a hunch.

From New York Good news:
People admitted to hospitals for suspected COVID-19 is unchanged at 77
People in ICUs down to 469 from 506
Percentage of people testing positive down to 11% from 13%

More likely the Long Island beaches. Most of the Manhattan rich have already moved out to Suffolk county on the east end of Long Island. I'm a permanent resident there now so I'm allows to resent them. Some of them are easier to get to but those will be limited to 50% capacity. That's pretty easy to enforce as there is a limited numbers of bridges and causeways. It's mostly a parking thing. Jones Beach, the biggest, has miles and miles of beaches but maybe 25,000 spaces. You can get here by bus and train so they can pack them in. Memorial day weekend is always the airshow, and I never miss it, but that's not happening. They can pack in about a million for that. My village is on the North Shore and we a few private beaches limited to residents so that's where I will be if it is warm enough. New Jersey beachs are a bit of a drive, in traffic.

_____________________________

Art comforts the disturbed and disturbs the comfortable.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7904
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 4:28:40 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"science under attack"

Did you not just see what the nice moderator man said?


Read the post.

Just above someone has again had a go at models for being mistaken, coding for being badly written, and lockdowns as a result being a mistake. So science is part of this dialogue, and when someone calls into question the very basis of operating as a scientist, I'll post back about that. Sorry, it's very relevant.

Happy to forward your next racist or political post to the moderator for approval, or just look back for the 80 you've already written.



"racist"???? <starts to cry>

Look, if there is a coding error in a model and it affects the mathematics, criticism of the model is not "anti-science". It's just criticism. And don't come back at me that I didn't read the article...I didn't. It doesn't interest me. Neither is invoking an analogy "anti-science". It's just an analogy. If you weren't wound up so tight you might even think it funny...because it is.

We all know who you were attacking with your "anti-science" meme. Hope the baby is doing well. Are you getting any sleep?


With the coding error in the model, it will not produce a good scientific result. The actual result might be within the margin of error or the actions taken may still be appropriate but I would never trust that model again. Thus, all models have to be verified and gone over. I wonder just how many models have the same problems, that so many people are using such models to try and prove their point.

15,000 lines of codes in a straight line? 30 to 60 in a subroutine so it can be rigorously tested before it is used in a program.

As far as the comment on racism and political posts, you can find them anywhere - even with just what I posted.



_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7905
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 4:45:28 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3036
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mayor De Blasio Says NYC Will Not Reopen Beaches For Memorial Day Weekend, May Deploy Fencing If Necessary

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/17/mayor-de-blasio-says-nyc-will-not-reopen-beaches-for-memorial-day-weekend-may-deploy-fencing-if-necessary/

I guess a fair number might be heading to the Jersey Shore. Pennsylvanians's are urged by the Sec. of Health not to go, but I suspect few will cancel their shore plans. Just a hunch.

From New York Good news:
People admitted to hospitals for suspected COVID-19 is unchanged at 77
People in ICUs down to 469 from 506
Percentage of people testing positive down to 11% from 13%

BTW, Mayor DeBlasio should not choose to die on that hill because he is picking a fight he can not possibly win. the weather is supposed to be nice and the citizens are going to go to the beach. There are miles and miles of Atlantic Ocean beaches. Police can't be everywhere. He had best figure out a compromise because the citizens of NYC have, for the most part, been extremely compliant and have done their part with good cheer. They are going to go to the beach next weekend. There may be mass arrests, but folks are going to the beach

_____________________________

Art comforts the disturbed and disturbs the comfortable.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7906
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 4:49:37 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mayor De Blasio Says NYC Will Not Reopen Beaches For Memorial Day Weekend, May Deploy Fencing If Necessary

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/17/mayor-de-blasio-says-nyc-will-not-reopen-beaches-for-memorial-day-weekend-may-deploy-fencing-if-necessary/

I guess a fair number might be heading to the Jersey Shore. Pennsylvanians's are urged by the Sec. of Health not to go, but I suspect few will cancel their shore plans. Just a hunch.

From New York Good news:
People admitted to hospitals for suspected COVID-19 is unchanged at 77
People in ICUs down to 469 from 506
Percentage of people testing positive down to 11% from 13%

BTW, Mayor DeBlasio should not choose to die on that hill because he is picking a fight he can not possibly win. the weather is supposed to be nice and the citizens are going to go to the beach. There are miles and miles of Atlantic Ocean beaches. Police can't be everywhere. He had best figure out a compromise because the citizens of NYC have, for the most part, been extremely compliant and have done their part with good cheer. They are going to go to the beach next weekend. There may be mass arrests, but folks are going to the beach


If they arrest the people, are they going to keep their social distance?

If they detain them, are they going to keep the detainees socially distanced?

. . . The World Wonders . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7907
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 4:53:15 PM   
obvert


Posts: 13992
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"science under attack"

Did you not just see what the nice moderator man said?


Read the post.

Just above someone has again had a go at models for being mistaken, coding for being badly written, and lockdowns as a result being a mistake. So science is part of this dialogue, and when someone calls into question the very basis of operating as a scientist, I'll post back about that. Sorry, it's very relevant.

Happy to forward your next racist or political post to the moderator for approval, or just look back for the 80 you've already written.



"racist"???? <starts to cry>

Look, if there is a coding error in a model and it affects the mathematics, criticism of the model is not "anti-science". It's just criticism. And don't come back at me that I didn't read the article...I didn't. It doesn't interest me. Neither is invoking an analogy "anti-science". It's just an analogy. If you weren't wound up so tight you might even think it funny...because it is.

We all know who you were attacking with your "anti-science" meme. Hope the baby is doing well. Are you getting any sleep?



Actually no, it's not just criticism of the model. Even the headline Lowpe posted showed exactly what that was. Not surprised it doesn't interest you.

You post back at me is not only silly and personal, it's missing what you posted on earlier. You were insinuating a post about science being attacked is political. That's just the state of American misinformation right now. Science isn't really a partisan argument. People are happy to use the results of science every day, much of it based on models, hypotheses, and theories.

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/17/2020 4:57:24 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7908
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 4:53:15 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9108
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

Like I said - it's OK to agree to disagree. I'm not saying it's easy. It wasn't easy for me. I still think a person can get ahead.

Edit - and I noted gifts I was born with as a factor. We each have a set of attributes that we need to play too. Maybe you are a "brainy" kind of guy. Maybe you are really good at drawing. Or playing music. Or learning languages comes easy for you. Or taking things apart and putting them back together. I had to keep things real. It's ok to want and dream but at the end of the day I went down a road that catered to my strengths and I didn't spend too much time wringing my hands over could-have-bens. I believe that if you can find a job that you like, where you don't watch the clock 5 minutes before quitting time and you take the time to become really-really good at, I think a person will do just fine.



Your position (that a person can still get ahead) is not mutually exclusive from mine (that empirical reality shows that it is unlikelier now (especially post-Reagan) than it has been previously (New Deal/Great Society era).

In a perfectly meritocratic society (also assuming all humans have the same chance for the same talents from conception/birth), there would be a 20% chance for an individual to end up in a given economic quintile.

For the 5th (bottom) quintile, being born there results in a 42% chance that you will remain there. Compare to 20% if it were truly random. Likewise, 39% of those born in the top quintile remain in the top. Numbers from that same 2011 Brookings report.

I was able to find a 2019 update from Brookings, complete with mouseover infographic: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/02/14/no-room-at-the-top-the-stark-divide-in-black-and-white-economic-mobility/. It hasn't changed much since 2011. The only quintile where the "you can be anything" mantra is actually true is the middle quintile; that's only 20% of the population, by definition. Those born in the 4th quintile have a 50% chance of remaining there or ending up in the bottom quintile. Those born in the top quintile have over a 60% chance of remaining in the top 2 quintiles. Clearly, economic status is much more static than the myth would have us believe.

Hi Lok,

There seems to be a fair bit of movement in those numbers to me. 40% of the top quintile falling out of the top to one of the bottom 3 shows a whole lot of economic 'mobility'. And 50% of those starting in the 4th quintile and moving up is fairly significant too. While not everyone is going to 'move up', clearly with that data a lot of people are moving up and down the economic spectrum.


I suppose that depends on one's definition of "a lot." Further, the point is more about the obstacles to moving up, not moving down (or more likely: being supplanted by those who did move up). If it were truly possible for anyone to be or do anything they wanted for their career, no matter the income of their parents when they were born, then every quintile from birth would have a 20% distribution in each quintile for where they ended up. Since we don't see this, it follows that there are structural factors at play that prevent people from being able to move up and supplant those above them in the distribution.

TBH, seeing that the middle quintile did have a roughly even distribution as adults was rather surprising to me. I expected to see something more like 15/20/35/15/15 (in order from top to bottom quintiles).

We are seeing some of these structural factors now, in the COVID economy. Obvert's touched on it a bit. There's a lot of inequity in these jobs. There's a lot of talk about the dignity of having a job, and taking pride in doing your job, even if it's "just" flipping burgers or staffing a checkout lane at a grocery store. But the reality is that these jobs have always been treated as second-class jobs by the economy writ large. And we're seeing now how essential those jobs are to our society even functioning, and yet the folks working these now-more-dangerous jobs are those who are paid the least for their labor.

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7909
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 5:01:37 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

Like I said - it's OK to agree to disagree. I'm not saying it's easy. It wasn't easy for me. I still think a person can get ahead.

Edit - and I noted gifts I was born with as a factor. We each have a set of attributes that we need to play too. Maybe you are a "brainy" kind of guy. Maybe you are really good at drawing. Or playing music. Or learning languages comes easy for you. Or taking things apart and putting them back together. I had to keep things real. It's ok to want and dream but at the end of the day I went down a road that catered to my strengths and I didn't spend too much time wringing my hands over could-have-bens. I believe that if you can find a job that you like, where you don't watch the clock 5 minutes before quitting time and you take the time to become really-really good at, I think a person will do just fine.



Your position (that a person can still get ahead) is not mutually exclusive from mine (that empirical reality shows that it is unlikelier now (especially post-Reagan) than it has been previously (New Deal/Great Society era).

In a perfectly meritocratic society (also assuming all humans have the same chance for the same talents from conception/birth), there would be a 20% chance for an individual to end up in a given economic quintile.

For the 5th (bottom) quintile, being born there results in a 42% chance that you will remain there. Compare to 20% if it were truly random. Likewise, 39% of those born in the top quintile remain in the top. Numbers from that same 2011 Brookings report.

I was able to find a 2019 update from Brookings, complete with mouseover infographic: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/02/14/no-room-at-the-top-the-stark-divide-in-black-and-white-economic-mobility/. It hasn't changed much since 2011. The only quintile where the "you can be anything" mantra is actually true is the middle quintile; that's only 20% of the population, by definition. Those born in the 4th quintile have a 50% chance of remaining there or ending up in the bottom quintile. Those born in the top quintile have over a 60% chance of remaining in the top 2 quintiles. Clearly, economic status is much more static than the myth would have us believe.

Hi Lok,

There seems to be a fair bit of movement in those numbers to me. 40% of the top quintile falling out of the top to one of the bottom 3 shows a whole lot of economic 'mobility'. And 50% of those starting in the 4th quintile and moving up is fairly significant too. While not everyone is going to 'move up', clearly with that data a lot of people are moving up and down the economic spectrum.


I suppose that depends on one's definition of "a lot." Further, the point is more about the obstacles to moving up, not moving down (or more likely: being supplanted by those who did move up). If it were truly possible for anyone to be or do anything they wanted for their career, no matter the income of their parents when they were born, then every quintile from birth would have a 20% distribution in each quintile for where they ended up. Since we don't see this, it follows that there are structural factors at play that prevent people from being able to move up and supplant those above them in the distribution.

This is so wrong. Better schools, higher education, job contacts, trust funds . . .
I doubt if those people who have those would likely end up at the bottom unless something drastically happened to them.


TBH, seeing that the middle quintile did have a roughly even distribution as adults was rather surprising to me. I expected to see something more like 15/20/35/15/15 (in order from top to bottom quintiles).

We are seeing some of these structural factors now, in the COVID economy. Obvert's touched on it a bit. There's a lot of inequity in these jobs. There's a lot of talk about the dignity of having a job, and taking pride in doing your job, even if it's "just" flipping burgers or staffing a checkout lane at a grocery store. But the reality is that these jobs have always been treated as second-class jobs by the economy writ large. And we're seeing now how essential those jobs are to our society even functioning, and yet the folks working these now-more-dangerous jobs are those who are paid the least for their labor.


So you don't think that doing the best job that you can, and being proud of what you do is worthwhile? I suggest that you change jobs (I don't know where you work or what you do) but go to work with the mentally and physically handicapped. You might have an attitude readjustment.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7910
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 5:11:59 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2746
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

Like I said - it's OK to agree to disagree. I'm not saying it's easy. It wasn't easy for me. I still think a person can get ahead.

Edit - and I noted gifts I was born with as a factor. We each have a set of attributes that we need to play too. Maybe you are a "brainy" kind of guy. Maybe you are really good at drawing. Or playing music. Or learning languages comes easy for you. Or taking things apart and putting them back together. I had to keep things real. It's ok to want and dream but at the end of the day I went down a road that catered to my strengths and I didn't spend too much time wringing my hands over could-have-bens. I believe that if you can find a job that you like, where you don't watch the clock 5 minutes before quitting time and you take the time to become really-really good at, I think a person will do just fine.



Your position (that a person can still get ahead) is not mutually exclusive from mine (that empirical reality shows that it is unlikelier now (especially post-Reagan) than it has been previously (New Deal/Great Society era).

In a perfectly meritocratic society (also assuming all humans have the same chance for the same talents from conception/birth), there would be a 20% chance for an individual to end up in a given economic quintile.

For the 5th (bottom) quintile, being born there results in a 42% chance that you will remain there. Compare to 20% if it were truly random. Likewise, 39% of those born in the top quintile remain in the top. Numbers from that same 2011 Brookings report.

I was able to find a 2019 update from Brookings, complete with mouseover infographic: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/02/14/no-room-at-the-top-the-stark-divide-in-black-and-white-economic-mobility/. It hasn't changed much since 2011. The only quintile where the "you can be anything" mantra is actually true is the middle quintile; that's only 20% of the population, by definition. Those born in the 4th quintile have a 50% chance of remaining there or ending up in the bottom quintile. Those born in the top quintile have over a 60% chance of remaining in the top 2 quintiles. Clearly, economic status is much more static than the myth would have us believe.

Hi Lok,

There seems to be a fair bit of movement in those numbers to me. 40% of the top quintile falling out of the top to one of the bottom 3 shows a whole lot of economic 'mobility'. And 50% of those starting in the 4th quintile and moving up is fairly significant too. While not everyone is going to 'move up', clearly with that data a lot of people are moving up and down the economic spectrum.


I suppose that depends on one's definition of "a lot." Further, the point is more about the obstacles to moving up, not moving down (or more likely: being supplanted by those who did move up). If it were truly possible for anyone to be or do anything they wanted for their career, no matter the income of their parents when they were born, then every quintile from birth would have a 20% distribution in each quintile for where they ended up. Since we don't see this, it follows that there are structural factors at play that prevent people from being able to move up and supplant those above them in the distribution.

TBH, seeing that the middle quintile did have a roughly even distribution as adults was rather surprising to me. I expected to see something more like 15/20/35/15/15 (in order from top to bottom quintiles).

We are seeing some of these structural factors now, in the COVID economy. Obvert's touched on it a bit. There's a lot of inequity in these jobs. There's a lot of talk about the dignity of having a job, and taking pride in doing your job, even if it's "just" flipping burgers or staffing a checkout lane at a grocery store. But the reality is that these jobs have always been treated as second-class jobs by the economy writ large. And we're seeing now how essential those jobs are to our society even functioning, and yet the folks working these now-more-dangerous jobs are those who are paid the least for their labor.


This is so wrong. Better schools, higher education, job contacts, trust funds . . .
I doubt if those people who have those would likely end up at the bottom unless something drastically happened to them.



Which are the structural issues he's talking about - if you're not in the position to take advantage of a better school, or have the finances for higher education or a trust fund, then you're seriously impeded.

quote:


So you don't think that doing the best job that you can, and being proud of what you do is worthwhile? I suggest that you change jobs (I don't know where you work or what you do) but go to work with the mentally and physically handicapped. You might have an attitude readjustment.


It's not about Loka's views, it's the value the economy places on these jobs. What's the average wage for someone working with people with mental illness or with disability? Do you think that's fair remuneration for the work. I did it myself for a while, so curious to see what your thoughts are :)

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7911
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 5:17:58 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3036
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mayor De Blasio Says NYC Will Not Reopen Beaches For Memorial Day Weekend, May Deploy Fencing If Necessary

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/17/mayor-de-blasio-says-nyc-will-not-reopen-beaches-for-memorial-day-weekend-may-deploy-fencing-if-necessary/

I guess a fair number might be heading to the Jersey Shore. Pennsylvanians's are urged by the Sec. of Health not to go, but I suspect few will cancel their shore plans. Just a hunch.

From New York Good news:
People admitted to hospitals for suspected COVID-19 is unchanged at 77
People in ICUs down to 469 from 506
Percentage of people testing positive down to 11% from 13%

BTW, Mayor DeBlasio should not choose to die on that hill because he is picking a fight he can not possibly win. the weather is supposed to be nice and the citizens are going to go to the beach. There are miles and miles of Atlantic Ocean beaches. Police can't be everywhere. He had best figure out a compromise because the citizens of NYC have, for the most part, been extremely compliant and have done their part with good cheer. They are going to go to the beach next weekend. There may be mass arrests, but folks are going to the beach


If they arrest the people, are they going to keep their social distance?

If they detain them, are they going to keep the detainees socially distanced?

. . . The World Wonders . . .

They can arrest some as an example but NYPD doesn't want this fight and they would be overwhelmed. If DeBlasio loses this fight then the people are going to figure out they don't have to cooperate 100%. Like I said, most everybody has been on board which has allowed NYC and the State to come down to some of the lowest R0 numbers in the country. Figure some thing out. Open them 50 %. Don't allow coolers or tents or swimming (too cold this early in the year anyway). Problem is some subway lines terminate at the best and biggest beaches. Unless you close those lines and stations people are going to show up. Hell, they are there today. Folks have bee through an awful lot. Give them a beach day

_____________________________

Art comforts the disturbed and disturbs the comfortable.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7912
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 5:21:09 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9108
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"post Reagan"

Oh, FFS, don't start in on Ronaldus Magnus.


I prefer "Ronaldus Maximus."

I used the term post-Reagan because I don't think we have an "era" term for it yet that is de-personalized, a la New Deal or Great Society, and the policies of the 80s are tied to him.

I mean, Reagan Revolution is a recognized term, even if it isn't accurate as it didn't really begin in 1980.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7913
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/17/2020 5:21:23 PM   
Admiral DadMan


Posts: 3546
Joined: 2/22/2002
From: A Lion uses all its might to catch a Rabbit
Status: offline
I think this thread has run its course.



_____________________________

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CVB Langley:

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7914
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