Matrix Games Forums

Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: OT: Corona virus

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  255 256 [257] 258 259   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:27:10 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/theres-plenty-of-meat-in-america-%e2%80%94-for-those-who-can-afford-it/ar-BB141DZr?li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."


The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time


I remember slaughtering chickens. Grandpa's dog liked the heads . . .

There are a lot of small stores with their own equipment to cut up larger animals.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7681
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:27:13 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20337
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-coronavirus-pa-waivers-revoked-20200514-r5tdikt3yzcnngr74nt73tjxau-story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7682
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:29:19 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22884
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: online
The tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (like Humira) are also being tested. They also are immune modulators. I think there is a good chance Humira might work..but it is pricey to make.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7683
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:33:51 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
Bars and other businesses quickly reopen in Wisconsin — for now
The sudden reopening following a state Supreme Court ruling has led to a range of local responses.
By Brooks Johnson and Mary Lynn Smith Star Tribune
May 14, 2020

quote:

Wisconsin’s statewide shutdown meant to slow the spread of COVID-19 has suddenly turned into a patchwork of regional responses as some bars quickly filled with patrons and local leaders scrambled to come up with their own rules.

The conservative majority of the Wisconsin Supreme Court late Wednesday afternoon ruled that the “safer at home” order from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers was invalid and threw it out effective immediately. The order forces Evers to work with the GOP-controlled Legislature on a new plan, a process that could take weeks; the two sides were meeting Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon Superior and Douglas County are expected to announce a number of requirements for businesses to reopen, including adopting guidelines the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation recently issued. Tentative plans would limit gatherings to no more than 20 people at a time. If the rules are broken licenses may be at risk, and if outbreaks occur at local businesses they would be publicly identified.
.
.
.
“I think it’s a start in the right direction — it’s where we need to go,” said Kern, district director for the Wisconsin Tavern League and owner of Jimmy’s Saloon. “We’re going to be able to show the community and people who think we shouldn’t be able to open … that safety is our top concern.”

Some bars, including Gronk’s, opened right away Wednesday.

“We will be taking proper precautions with limited capacity, sanitizing, and social distancing to keep our customers and staff safe,” the bar wrote on Facebook.
.
.
.
The spread does seem to be slowing, at least: Last week a free testing site was set up in Douglas County that was open to anyone in the northwest part of the state with possible COVID-19 symptoms. Out of 171 tests, none were positive. The county of 44,000 people has had 11 COVID-19 cases and no deaths. Across the border, St. Louis County reported its 100th case on Thursday.
.
.
.
As of Wednesday, there were nearly 10,100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wisconsin and 421 deaths, according to the state Department of Health.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.


https://www.startribune.com/wisconsin-bars-and-businesses-quickly-reopen-for-now/570471942/

I would bet that people from Duluth, Minnesota (not Georgia) which is the largest community in Saint Louis county will head to the bars there! Duluth and Superior are right next to each other.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7684
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:37:39 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22884
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: online
Are they going to have bar peanuts?

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7685
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:38:12 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
As many as 20,000 Minnesota businesses could reopen Monday, but will they?
By Joe Carlson and Jeremy Olson Star Tribune
April 27, 2020

quote:

If you’re looking to enjoy the spring weather with a newly assembled pair of Minnesota-made Riedell roller skates, you’ll need to wait a touch longer.

Afforded an early-bird chance along with other select businesses to reopen Monday amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Riedell opted to continue to retrofit social-distancing strategies in its Red Wing plant and resume skate manufacturing as planned on May 4 — the final day of the state’s current stay-at-home order.

“We’re a manufacturer. We need to build a product to sell,” said Riedell President Bob Riegelman, “but we want to do it the right way.”

The decision reflects a truism voiced lately by business and health leaders and Gov. Tim Walz — that no magic number or date is going to reopen the state of Minnesota. The decision to open factories and stores amid the pandemic is more like turning a dial than flipping a switch, Walz said, as some businesses with controlled environments can open sooner than others — but only when they’re sure it is safe to do so.

“I don’t want to be driven by an arbitrary date or arbitrary numbers,” Walz said. “I want to see how Minnesota’s responding.”

Walz announced last Thursday that he would allow earlier reopening of around 20,000 businesses, mostly in small manufacturing and warehousing, putting 80,000 to 100,000 Minnesotans back to work four weeks after a state-mandated shutdown.
.
.
.
Since recording its first COVID-19 case on March 6, Minnesota has seen more than 3,000 confirmed cases and more than 200 deaths. Walz has issued 45 executive orders related to COVID-19, closing schools and businesses, delaying elective medical procedures and ordering Minnesotans to stay home.


https://www.startribune.com/getting-back-to-business-in-a-covid-19-world/569967162/?refresh=true

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7686
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:41:59 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Here is the study on Ro being estimated now at 5.7 for Covid.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

I'm a little fuzzy on how Rt is measured, or the numbers we're now looking at everywhere show transmissibility below 1.

Don't all of the systems estimate Rt based on known cases, thus tested cases? So if testing is higher or lower the Rt would be off from actual, right?

This site seems to imply that testing numbers are the starting point to measure effective Ro, labelled Rt.

One thing I'm also wondering is if the estimated Ro of the disease needs to be part of the equation, especially if that is 5.7 now. .

http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/

Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original algorithm to estimate Rt is a function of how many new cases appear each day. The relationship between the number of cases yesterday and the number of cases today give us a hint of what Rt might be. However, we can’t rely on any one day too much in trying to guess Rt, as daily case counts are imperfect due to changing testing capacity, lags in data reporting, and random chance. However, using Bayes’ Theorem, we can take the new information we get from each day’s case count to adjust our expectation of what Rt is, getting closer to the true value as more daily data becomes available.

I applied this algorithm to the data to produce a model for each state’s Rt, and how it changes over time. But I noticed something strange. Over time, all states trended asymptotically to Rt = 1.0, refusing to descend below that value. Somehow, the algorithm wasn’t reflecting the reality that Rt could be < 1.0 as well.

To fix this, I made one significant change to their algorithm that maintains the integrity of Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original work while allowing us to see the real-time picture clearly. The change was simple. Instead of considering every previous day of data we have to estimate Rt, I only use the last seven days. Doing so is mathematically sound and produces more accurate results when the model is compared to actual data, but I admit is not reviewed by anyone. While I invite feedback, I’m sharing these results with that disclaimer well in advance.


< Message edited by obvert -- 5/14/2020 9:42:23 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7687
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:42:44 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article



You're right, John. This paper (making some assumptions) identifies the R0 in Wuhan/Hubei at 5.8 (95% CI 3.8-8.5, pretty broad) early in the outbreak there.

This has been brought up here a few times. R0 is not a static measure and can be dialed up in a naive population of unsuspecting individuals at-say for example-a Chinese New Year banquet or down by social distancing, sanitation, PPE wearing, 'herd immunity', etc. Most states are probably below 1.0 on average right now, but if the environment or host subset is right ('alternative' Korean nightclub, meat processing production line, nursing home, chemo wards) the organism can spread much more readily.

ETA: Final para in discussion:

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 5/14/2020 9:44:00 PM >


_____________________________


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7688
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:43:03 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
Stores at the Mall of America will reopen beginning on June 1, the Bloomington mall announced Thursday.

quote:

the decision on whether to reduce hours or close all together up to the stores themselves. (Scott Takushi / Pioneer Press)

Malls are among the Minnesota businesses that can resume in-person sales on Monday, if they operate at no more than 50 percent capacity and have social distancing plans, Gov. Tim Walz announced Wednesday.

The Mall of America has been working for two months to help identify and establish industry-wide reopening safety protocols. Waiting to reopen “will allow us the time to create the safest environment possible for our guests and allow our tenants the time needed to prepare for reopening,” according to a statement from the mall, which noted that not all retailers will reopen at the same time.

Restaurants and attractions at MOA will remain closed until there is further guidance from state officials. Food establishments may still operate through curbside and delivery.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/stores-at-mall-of-america-to-begin-reopening-june-1/ar-BB145BBF

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7689
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:44:58 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Are they going to have bar peanuts?


I don't know, I never went to bars there. They probably will have heavily salted popcorn . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7690
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:49:12 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/theres-plenty-of-meat-in-america-%e2%80%94-for-those-who-can-afford-it/ar-BB141DZr?li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."


The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time



The Amish are pretty darn harsh on their animals.



Man oh man-you ain't just whistlin' Dixie. Let's just say that they have a different understanding than conventional medicine of the concept of 'judicious use of antimicrobials', responsible breeding practices, 'equine lameness' and animal welfare.

_____________________________


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7691
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:52:58 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20337
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Here is the study on Ro being estimated now at 5.7 for Covid.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

I'm a little fuzzy on how Rt is measured, or the numbers we're now looking at everywhere show transmissibility below 1.

Don't all of the systems estimate Rt based on known cases, thus tested cases? So if testing is higher or lower the Rt would be off from actual, right?

This site seems to imply that testing numbers are the starting point to measure effective Ro, labelled Rt.

One thing I'm also wondering is if the estimated Ro of the disease needs to be part of the equation, especially if that is 5.7 now. .

http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/

Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original algorithm to estimate Rt is a function of how many new cases appear each day. The relationship between the number of cases yesterday and the number of cases today give us a hint of what Rt might be. However, we can’t rely on any one day too much in trying to guess Rt, as daily case counts are imperfect due to changing testing capacity, lags in data reporting, and random chance. However, using Bayes’ Theorem, we can take the new information we get from each day’s case count to adjust our expectation of what Rt is, getting closer to the true value as more daily data becomes available.

I applied this algorithm to the data to produce a model for each state’s Rt, and how it changes over time. But I noticed something strange. Over time, all states trended asymptotically to Rt = 1.0, refusing to descend below that value. Somehow, the algorithm wasn’t reflecting the reality that Rt could be < 1.0 as well.

To fix this, I made one significant change to their algorithm that maintains the integrity of Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original work while allowing us to see the real-time picture clearly. The change was simple. Instead of considering every previous day of data we have to estimate Rt, I only use the last seven days. Doing so is mathematically sound and produces more accurate results when the model is compared to actual data, but I admit is not reviewed by anyone. While I invite feedback, I’m sharing these results with that disclaimer well in advance.



I read a English article, I posted it but you were off to the birthing boat, that talked about the Ro a fair bit. It mentioned the Ro as not being a constant number and they were uncertain of what variables effected it. Sure it is a calculated average, but it varies by demographic/environmental and other factors widely.

Oops, Chickenboy gave a better answer.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/14/2020 9:56:33 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7692
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:54:29 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/theres-plenty-of-meat-in-america-%e2%80%94-for-those-who-can-afford-it/ar-BB141DZr?li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."


The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time



The Amish are pretty darn harsh on their animals. But I get you point.




They will have 2 gardens, one they eat from and the other they sell from.

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7693
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:58:30 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Trump says testing may be 'frankly overrated'
1 hr ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-testing-may-be-frankly-overrated/ar-BB145rPW?li=BBnb7Kz



"We have more cases than anybody in the world, but why? Because we do more testing," Trump said. "When you test, you have a case. When you test you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases. They don't want to write that. It's common sense. We test much more.""

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 7694
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 10:02:47 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
New coronavirus case counts are going down in almost half of US states. But it's too soon to celebrate
May 14, 2020


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/14/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html



" (CNN)First, the good news: In 24 states, the number of new coronavirus cases reported each day is generally going down.
In 17 states, the numbers are holding steady, according to an analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. And in nine states, the numbers of new cases are still rising. "

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 7695
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 10:16:46 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article



You're right, John. This paper (making some assumptions) identifies the R0 in Wuhan/Hubei at 5.8 (95% CI 3.8-8.5, pretty broad) early in the outbreak there.

This has been brought up here a few times. R0 is not a static measure and can be dialed up in a naive population of unsuspecting individuals at-say for example-a Chinese New Year banquet or down by social distancing, sanitation, PPE wearing, 'herd immunity', etc. Most states are probably below 1.0 on average right now, but if the environment or host subset is right ('alternative' Korean nightclub, meat processing production line, nursing home, chemo wards) the organism can spread much more readily.

ETA: Final para in discussion:

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.


Thanks for the analysis. As you say the R0 factor seems to be a combination of the microbe and the environment it lives in. I’m really impressed that one of the best repositories of information has been this thread. I think many of us have awoken brain cells that have long been dormant or have been busy elsewhere


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7696
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 10:24:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article



You're right, John. This paper (making some assumptions) identifies the R0 in Wuhan/Hubei at 5.8 (95% CI 3.8-8.5, pretty broad) early in the outbreak there.

This has been brought up here a few times. R0 is not a static measure and can be dialed up in a naive population of unsuspecting individuals at-say for example-a Chinese New Year banquet or down by social distancing, sanitation, PPE wearing, 'herd immunity', etc. Most states are probably below 1.0 on average right now, but if the environment or host subset is right ('alternative' Korean nightclub, meat processing production line, nursing home, chemo wards) the organism can spread much more readily.

ETA: Final para in discussion:

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.


Thanks for the analysis. As you say the R0 factor seems to be a combination of the microbe and the environment it lives in. I’m really impressed that one of the best repositories of information has been this thread. I think many of us have awoken brain cells that have long been dormant or have been busy elsewhere



+1

This thread has been awesome.

A few days ago, I had access to television news for the first time since this started. Conversely, I didn't have access to this thread or to the internet websites I've been consulting many times a day for two months. The experience was unnerving, with a strong sense of being underinformed. The news filtered through major broadcast stations was diluted, too general, lacked underlying data needed to really understand what's going on, and (IMO) is always biased. In this thread you get both sides, access to all kinds of raw data, and fabulous input from people we know who have right-on-point expertise.




< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/14/2020 10:25:25 PM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7697
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 10:27:57 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20337
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

quote:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.


https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-stories/modeling-covid-19-minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7698
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 10:48:50 PM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9285
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution)? A combination of these and/or others?

Different strains of the virus, some more deadly than others. Last I heard there were 30 different strains identified. New York City most likely had the most deadly strain, unless the Chinese or Russians are hiding a secret.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7699
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 10:49:48 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20337
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
TIME BOMB ‘Trump Death Clock’ showing US coronavirus toll in real-time is beamed onto massive Times Square billboard

https://archive.fo/r9F8W archive of The US Sun

Almost like Philadelphia Sports fans...we are infamous for booing our best players.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7700
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 10:52:05 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22884
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: online
R0 is also dependent on the percentage of susceptible individuals in the population

R0 for measles is reported to be 12-18 but the calculated vales range between 3 and 203 All are obsolete because of the measles vaccine.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28757186


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7701
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 11:06:48 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

quote:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.


https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-stories/modeling-covid-19-minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota


Personally, I think that the Victoria Secret's models on the runway are the best models to look at . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7702
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 11:11:55 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22884
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: online
This notion of a "super-strain" is overdone. There are thousands of COVID-19 mutations. Most are neutral. Many are deleterious to the virus. Rarely, one is favorable. Think about how many billions of mutations there were between SARS-1 and SARS-2. Of course, once circulating in human populations, the selective pressure for human transmission is extreme.

There are dominant strains but that by itself does not mean they are worse. It could be "luck" or a key large gathering. It could even be that human activity will drive selection toward LESS severe disease. To see how this could happen imagine two strains. Let's say strain A is nasty and 90% of those infected are sick enough to be hospitalized by day 2. Strain B only requires hospitalization in 10% and 50% aren't even sure they are sick. Which strain is likely to become dominant?


Getting shoved into a freezer truck or incinerator is bad for viral reproduction.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7703
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 11:21:29 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine
Bill Bostock
Apr 28, 2020

quote:

Six monkeys given a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford are said to be coronavirus-free 28 days after sustained exposure to the virus.

The result is a promising early sign for the vaccine, which is also undergoing human trials. A working human version, however, remains months away even in the best-case scenario.

The monkey experiment was carried out in late March by government scientists at the Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Hamilton, Montana, The New York Times reported Monday.

Six rhesus macaques received a vaccine produced by the Jenner Institute and the Oxford Vaccine Group. They were then exposed to heavy levels of the coronavirus that were known to have previously sickened other monkeys. These monkeys suffered no ill effects, however, and remained healthy at least 28 days later, The Times said.

"The rhesus macaque is pretty much the closest thing we have to humans," Vincent Munster, the head of the Virus Ecology Unit at the laboratory, told The Times.
.
.
.
On Monday, the world's largest vaccine maker, the Serum Institute of India, said it would not wait for the trial to end and was preemptively making 40 million doses to save time in case it worked.


https://www.businessinsider.com/monkeys-given-new-oxford-vaccine-coronavirus-free-strong-exposure-encouraging-2020-4?op=1



_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7704
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 11:31:24 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22884
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: online
Wow. The thing is you need a serious human safety study with any COVID vaccine because of this whole cytokine storm business and the many apparent immune mediated side effects (like Kawasaki Disease in kids)

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7705
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/15/2020 12:21:55 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9305
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
I am sure that this is happening over a lot of the country:

St. Louis County facing $15M-20M revenue shortfall, provides temporary property tax relief
The county has implemented a hiring freeze that leaves 65 positions empty.
By Katie Galioto Star Tribune
May 12, 2020

quote:


Text size
comment
share
tweet
email
Print
more

DULUTH – St. Louis County officials are projecting a $15 to $20 million revenue shortfall this year in addition to the roughly $3.1 million in COVID-19-related costs racked up to date.

“We definitely are going to have to look at the size of our government,” said County Administrator Kevin Gray, who has instituted a hiring freeze that leaves 65 positions open to save the county $3 million this year.

Gray said the county will also evaluate future vacancies, “aggressively” manage all non-COVID spending and limit capital expenditures as officials brace for the blows to their $407 million budget.

On Tuesday, the St. Louis County Board voted unanimously to delay late penalties on property taxes for businesses and homeowners who suffered a financial hit from the pandemic.
.
.
.
Matt Hilgart, government relations manager for the Association of Minnesota Counties, said at least 36 other counties in the state have provided a similar form of relief. The county collects property taxes twice a year for the state, cities and school districts, some of whom have said not receiving the revenue they’re due in June could cause immediate cash flow problems.

So far, Nilsen said the county has received $75 million in property taxes ahead of Friday’s deadline. In recent years, St. Louis County collected $133 million by May 15.

Property taxes make up $145 million of St. Louis County’s 2020 budget, and officials expect a larger percentage of delinquencies this year even with extensions for some payments. County leaders also anticipate a decrease in other tax revenue streams, investment revenue and permitting and service fees.

“And in the long-term, the largest cost drivers for counties will absolutely be the social safety net services they provide,” Hilgart said. “In times of need, we see our programs grow busier.”


https://www.startribune.com/st-louis-county-facing-15-20m-revenue-shortfall/570403382/

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7706
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/15/2020 1:04:35 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 25152
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually.








Attachment (1)

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7707
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/15/2020 2:10:59 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2173
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
Obvert: Congratulations!

The Itaewon outbreak is now up to 142, and they've tested 35,000 people who visited the area over a two-week period. Here's an interesting snippet:

"Of the national total, at least 82 were those who visited affected venues in Itaewon, and the others were infected through chain transmissions. Around two-thirds of them were aged between 19 and 29, the KCDC said."

The latest article: Itaewon-linked chain transmissions grip greater Seoul area

The super spreader says he became symptomatic the next day, but I'm guessing he did a fair amount of sneezing or coughing in those clubs (apparently five bars and clubs).

One interesting side effect is some of the local press is trying to play up the foreign angle. Here's an example: Jitters as Teachers Found to Have Partied in Itaewon

"According to the Ministry of Education, 880 teachers went to nightclubs and bars in Itaewon over the long weekend, 366 of them foreigners who typically work as language instructors in schools and crammers."

That quote is actually kind of funny as it confirms my observation that Itaewon is not longer a foreigner haven. In the old days, there'd be thousands of English teachers there on the prowl on a four-day weekend. I've seen on a couple of Facebook groups that a number of foreign teachers, most of whom weren't anywhere near Itaewon over the time in question, are being shat upon by their English school employers over this since Little Johnny's mom is worried about what those dastardly foreigners are up to. Nevermind that those clubs were filled with about 95% Koreans, the super spreader himself is Korean and, if I recall correctly, only four out of the 142 infected were foreigners.

Anyway, I've seen worse anti-foreign backlashes in this country. Life goes on.

Cheers,
CB


_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 7708
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/15/2020 3:52:02 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9285
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

Criminal Investigation Into Nursing Homes

Hopefully there will be some good come out of all this mess, that care and service improves in these facilities. It's been bad for many years [maybe forever] and now governments have the opportunity to do some good and if they don't the rest of us have fodder for our cannons - 60%+ of COVID-19 Deaths occurred in these facilities. Let their final sacrifice not be for nothing.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7709
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/15/2020 4:12:54 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9285
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

A lot of coughing and sneezing that nobody was bothered by! Seriously though, it does seem that this story has a hole in it. It takes ten minutes of being in close proximity of someone with the disease in order to transmit it [by proximity]. So it would have taken him over 8 hours to infect 50 people. That's a lot of talking.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7710
Page:   <<   < prev  255 256 [257] 258 259   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  255 256 [257] 258 259   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.215