From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though.
You're right, John. This paper (making some assumptions) identifies the R0 in Wuhan/Hubei at 5.8 (95% CI 3.8-8.5, pretty broad) early in the outbreak there.
This has been brought up here a few times. R0 is not a static measure and can be dialed up in a naive population of unsuspecting individuals at-say for example-a Chinese New Year banquet or down by social distancing, sanitation, PPE wearing, 'herd immunity', etc. Most states are probably below 1.0 on average right now, but if the environment or host subset is right ('alternative' Korean nightclub, meat processing production line, nursing home, chemo wards) the organism can spread much more readily.
ETA: Final para in discussion:
How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.
Thanks for the analysis. As you say the R0 factor seems to be a combination of the microbe and the environment it lives in. I’m really impressed that one of the best repositories of information has been this thread. I think many of us have awoken brain cells that have long been dormant or have been busy elsewhere
This thread has been awesome.
A few days ago, I had access to television news for the first time since this started. Conversely, I didn't have access to this thread or to the internet websites I've been consulting many times a day for two months. The experience was unnerving, with a strong sense of being underinformed. The news filtered through major broadcast stations was diluted, too general, lacked underlying data needed to really understand what's going on, and (IMO) is always biased. In this thread you get both sides, access to all kinds of raw data, and fabulous input from people we know who have right-on-point expertise.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/14/2020 10:25:25 PM >