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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:19:20 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9134
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?




Are you asking from a professional point of view or from a personal interest?


Just "curious"

It does occur to me that in order to "successfully" infect 50 others in 3 hrs it might require actual INTENT to do so. I wonder if it is some kind of self-loathing rage or even hatred of gays.


I think all it would take is for him to take a particularly virus-y hand and touch a surface (or several surfaces) that dozens of other people are going to touch.

A bathroom door handle.

The knob of a faucet on a sink (ALWAYS use the paper towel to turn off the faucet, guys - don't touch that sh.. directly).

A pen or payment method at the bar.

Etc.


Or - crowded dance floor and a few coughs or even just breathing out a cloud of virus particles.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7651
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:21:36 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9134
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

France has 14.6% mortality (total cases divided by mortality, Worldometers). Italy, UK, Belgium, Sweden and Netherlands are over 10%. Spain is right at 10%. The US at 6%. Germany at 4.4%. South Korea 2.5%. Japan 4/10ths of a percent.

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution). A combination of these and/or others?

One possibility: 3.6% of Japanese are obese (BMI over 30). The correlation doesn't hold well among western nations, however, where the rate is 39% of Americans, 29% UK and 23% Germany (figures limited to adults for these three nations).


These are the questions that need answering I think. I tend to think it is a combination of factors, but then which of those factors is most meaningful? For example CR mentions density:

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.

Diet? Past experience with viral outbreaks? How about effectiveness of local govt? Life cycle of the virus?

Here is a study from Canada:

Canadian study finds temperature, latitude not associated with COVID-19 spread


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200508083551.htm

A new study finds that temperature and latitude do not appear to be associated with the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but school closures and other public health measures are having a positive effect.

--
BTW, This is the 3rd source I have seen that mentions closing schools to have a positive effect.






The gold standard of mortality won’t be available for a year or two. At that time you will be able to determine a simple number. Using years and years of historical records you determine two numbers. How many people were expected to die in 2020 In a a world without Covid, against how many actually did. Subtract one from the other and you have “excess mortality”. That is how many were killed, by all causes, from Covid. All causes: Covid, suicide, delayed medical care, people that should have gone to a doctor but didn’t, ect


With all due respect, that number you cited-the 'excess mortality' number gleaned in the future won't directly address COVID deaths alone. As we are all finding out, deaths caused by suicide, depression, alcohol or drug abuse, physical abuse, delayed surgeries, etc. aren't directly attributable to COVID, but our response to COVID. It is entirely possible that our overzealous response may have put more people in harms' way than it has saved. We need to be able to suss this number from the COVID-specific deaths to have meaningful insight into how to deal with these things in the future. Assigning our self-wrought troubles (and ALL 'excess mortality') to COVID would be too simplistic.


Although, few are looking for the lives saved by lockdowns. I posted two separate studies a while back on lives saved due to pollution reduction and less traffic on the roads and fewer accidents. In CA alone fatal accidents were halved over the period measured. In the study on pollution in Europe an estimated 11,000+ lives were saved/extended during the month of study due to lower pollution rates, and other health conditions like asthma and early term births were lessened as well.

There are possibly more reasons people might be less vulnerable to certain causes of death in lockdown. Those should all be part of the count too.

So far worldwide suicides are tracking normally, as I posted in the same area.

Due to the connection between Covid and heart conditions that one is going to be hard to sort out in the end. Possibly also other underlying conditions where someone never was tested for Covid but died of another cause, yet had the virus.

It's all a big mess, but very complex.



Yeah, if we're going to track externalities, then we need to count the positives. Can't just count the negatives.

That's such a complex task to even semi-accurately tally, though, that it's not even something we should be doing right now. That's going to have to wait - probably a few years, too.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7652
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:23:43 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9134
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Early in this thread, there was a chart posted showing transmissibility (Ro) vs. lethality of Covid-19. It showed the same rates for other infectious diseases, including the 1918 Spanish flu-type. My recollection is that the chart (this is at least two months ago) indicated Covid-19 was more transmissible but less lethal than the 1918 flu.

At that time, Covid's Ro was estimated, I believe, at around 2.5 or 2.8. Lethality was then above 1%.

I assume the Ro has remained the same, but through countermeasures the "manipulated" Ro has dropped below 1.0 for about 90% of the states and for the country as a whole and for most other nations. And lethality is somewhere closer to 0.1%, much less than estimated early on.

I'd be interested to see that chart again and any analysis into how the estimated rates might've changed since. How does it compare to 1918 now?

Overall, we met the early objective of flattening the curve. The Ro rate has proven susceptible to countermeasures. We've begun easing them, in some cases as much as a month ago. And thus far the results are very promising. The main problems continue to be confined to limited areas, in many cases in jurisdictions that haven't begun easing. In those that have, flare ups have been limited.


I believe you mean less lethal on an individual basis, which would perhaps be correct (maybe even probably or almost certainly; I haven't checked the numbers as I don't think we have an apple to compare to the 1918 flu's apple, nor do I think we will until perhaps sometime in 2021).

Jury's still out on population-level mortality, though.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7653
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:28:46 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9134
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A few weeks ago, there were reports that the mortality rate for Covid would end up at 0.1% or thereabouts. That's roughly in line with seasonal flu and means that one out of a thousand infected patients would be expected to die (that's what I think it means, anyhow). That information is a few weeks old, so there may have been adjustments. But nobody's been talking 2% after about April 1.


The difference being that many multiples more people would have COVID-19 than would have seasonal flu, meaning many multiples more deaths.

I mean hell, we've already hit the rough range of the absolute number of deaths for the seasonal flu and with many confirmed fewer infections. The CDC estimates that between 9.3M and 49M people get the flu every year in the US. Even given that our rate of testing is relatively abysmal, it's pretty unlikely that we're missing out on that many millions of untested positive cases. As of today, total US confirmed positive was at 1.4M - with 85.6K deaths. That's a confirmed-case mortality rate of 6%. In order to be around a 0.1% mortality rate, that would mean roughly 85M people would need to be infected. That's simply implausible.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7654
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:31:00 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.



I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong


I heard, by which I mean you should question, on the radio hourly news update that 50% of Americans are tapping into their retirement savings because of Covid. In addition that 1/3 of credit card holders are getting their allowable credit reduced.

I kind of give credence to this considering my background. A small business owner is ineligible for unemployment. Their business value (if impacted by lockdwon) is now approaching 0 if not badly into the red.

It simply seems to me that they are damned if they do and certainly damned if they don't. The rational decision is to open up and face the uncertain virus and govt reaction over the certain economic death.


The economic damage is incalculable and will not come back fast. We will hit 20% unemployment and anyone that thinks it will come down to anything close to what it was is either selling you something or running for something (if you choose to think there is a distinction). Here is something else under the iceberg of 30 million unemployed. In this country almost all health insurance is tied to your employment. Yes, there is COBRA, but if you are laid off you need to pay both your share and the former employers share of health insurance so almost everyone will do without. So now we have tens of millions of unemployed people and few of them have health insurance. What can go wrong? More than a few economists have stated it will be 10 years or more before we see sub 5% unemployment again. One of the things our country does worst is train people that are transitioning out of obsolete jobs. So now we have tens of millions that are unemployed, uninsured, probably have some significant debt and have to be retrained for a different job. Hope is never a good strategy but once again, I hope I'm not reading the tea leaves correctly.

I know nothing about running a small business but I do know a few people that run them. Rule #1 is set up the business so you, the owner, are also an employee. So you can lay yourself off and collect unemployment. Yes, it is a little more expensive in good times, but it is paying big dividends now.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7655
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:31:24 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9134
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

If preventive health care actually works, there will be downstream consequences from delayed or missed preventive measures (colonoscopy, mammograms, cervical exam, diabetes checks, eye checks for diabetes, blood pressure management, preventive vaccinations etc. etc)

You won't see these problems in two months.


Yeah. I've got moles I need to get checked out, and was putting off until February-ish, and then... I mean, I don't think any of them are cancerous, but I'm at high risk. It's been >5 years since I had a dermatologist look at them, and about 18 months now since I had a GP look at them.

It's also been a few years since I got a standard physical, and since it's free I'd like to do it. I'll technically be in my mid-30s later this year.


But really, I'm just hoping that I can get my eyes done this year. There might be a small window in late summer...

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7656
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:33:09 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9134
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

Well if we are trying to do the herd immunity thing then we should be opening in dibs and drabs (as we appear to be doing). It looks like our medical system is not overwhelmed and the curve looks pretty flat to me. I don't see any credible news about building immunity from plasma yet, and no one seems to have a "cure." Heck - they are still trying to ramp up the ability to do testing.

But holy bat-crap, batman! A lot of people have passed on to the other side from this virus.

We are living in a historic moment. It gives me a new viewpoint for history as a learning subject.


We just need more testing.

We need more testing.

We've squandered the first 2 months of lockdowns when we should've been making gigantic, national efforts at expanding testing.

We still don't have enough tests to be able to implement the "dance" phase that's supposed to come after the "hammer" phase (I really dislike the terms used in that analogy, they're terrible choices).

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7657
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:35:04 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9134
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
We almost had polio eliminated from the planet...now it will take years to make up lost ground.


That probably makes Bill Gates mad, as it is his cause celeb I believe.


Cause celebre, however the term is usually used for a controversial action... I wouldn't think that eradicating polio would be controversial among the overwhelming proportion of the populous that has a functioning brain.

His foundation is interested in public health in general, mostly on a global scale.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7658
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:44:28 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


I know nothing about running a small business but I do know a few people that run them. Rule #1 is set up the business so you, the owner, are also an employee. So you can lay yourself off and collect unemployment. Yes, it is a little more expensive in good times, but it is paying big dividends now.


States vary on this. In Pennsylvania there is no way for your average sophisticated business owner to do this. Perhaps somebody with multiple businesses might be able to pull it off but they would likely not do it since the amount of money awarded is relatively small. Plus if you are simply self employed, you are out of luck too.

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/14/2020 7:57:58 PM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7659
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:53:03 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8532
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.



I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong


I heard, by which I mean you should question, on the radio hourly news update that 50% of Americans are tapping into their retirement savings because of Covid. In addition that 1/3 of credit card holders are getting their allowable credit reduced.

I kind of give credence to this considering my background. A small business owner is ineligible for unemployment. Their business value (if impacted by lockdwon) is now approaching 0 if not badly into the red.

It simply seems to me that they are damned if they do and certainly damned if they don't. The rational decision is to open up and face the uncertain virus and govt reaction over the certain economic death.


The economic damage is incalculable and will not come back fast. We will hit 20% unemployment and anyone that thinks it will come down to anything close to what it was is either selling you something or running for something (if you choose to think there is a distinction). Here is something else under the iceberg of 30 million unemployed. In this country almost all health insurance is tied to your employment. Yes, there is COBRA, but if you are laid off you need to pay both your share and the former employers share of health insurance so almost everyone will do without. So now we have tens of millions of unemployed people and few of them have health insurance. What can go wrong? More than a few economists have stated it will be 10 years or more before we see sub 5% unemployment again. One of the things our country does worst is train people that are transitioning out of obsolete jobs. So now we have tens of millions that are unemployed, uninsured, probably have some significant debt and have to be retrained for a different job. Hope is never a good strategy but once again, I hope I'm not reading the tea leaves correctly.

I know nothing about running a small business but I do know a few people that run them. Rule #1 is set up the business so you, the owner, are also an employee. So you can lay yourself off and collect unemployment. Yes, it is a little more expensive in good times, but it is paying big dividends now.


Not just for unemployment reasons but also legal liability. Have the company with the sign on the door own the letterhead and not much else. It leases everything else from another company that you also own. You are an employee of the company with the letterhead and all of your employment expenses are now tax deductible, including your solid platinum healthcare which includes dental and optical, not to mention your retirement savings plus the maximum matching funds from the company.

When I say that "you" own it, your family members can also own a share. This way the entire family can go to a shareholders meeting at a resort, restaurant, or wherever. You can also hire the children and pay them a wage instead of giving them an allowance.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7660
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:56:24 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Social Distancing is going to weaken our immune systems.

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7661
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 7:56:54 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
We almost had polio eliminated from the planet...now it will take years to make up lost ground.


That probably makes Bill Gates mad, as it is his cause celeb I believe.


Cause celebre, however the term is usually used for a controversial action... I wouldn't think that eradicating polio would be controversial among the overwhelming proportion of the populous that has a functioning brain.

His foundation is interested in public health in general, mostly on a global scale.


I think it is literally translated as famous cases. In investigating -- it was poor word choice, I should have used notorious.

Is 'Notorious' Always Negative? Notorious is a word that got a bad rap by association with an undesirable lot. ... The most common meaning of 'notorious' is "widely and unfavorably known." The word does have a neutral meaning ("widely known"), but it tends to be colored by the pejorative meaning.

I would be using it in its widely known meaning if clarification is needed.

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Our-Plan-to-Eradicate-Polio

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/14/2020 7:59:26 PM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7662
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:01:13 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.



I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong


I heard, by which I mean you should question, on the radio hourly news update that 50% of Americans are tapping into their retirement savings because of Covid. In addition that 1/3 of credit card holders are getting their allowable credit reduced.

I kind of give credence to this considering my background. A small business owner is ineligible for unemployment. Their business value (if impacted by lockdwon) is now approaching 0 if not badly into the red.

It simply seems to me that they are damned if they do and certainly damned if they don't. The rational decision is to open up and face the uncertain virus and govt reaction over the certain economic death.


The economic damage is incalculable and will not come back fast. We will hit 20% unemployment and anyone that thinks it will come down to anything close to what it was is either selling you something or running for something (if you choose to think there is a distinction). Here is something else under the iceberg of 30 million unemployed. In this country almost all health insurance is tied to your employment. Yes, there is COBRA, but if you are laid off you need to pay both your share and the former employers share of health insurance so almost everyone will do without. So now we have tens of millions of unemployed people and few of them have health insurance. What can go wrong? More than a few economists have stated it will be 10 years or more before we see sub 5% unemployment again. One of the things our country does worst is train people that are transitioning out of obsolete jobs. So now we have tens of millions that are unemployed, uninsured, probably have some significant debt and have to be retrained for a different job. Hope is never a good strategy but once again, I hope I'm not reading the tea leaves correctly.

I know nothing about running a small business but I do know a few people that run them. Rule #1 is set up the business so you, the owner, are also an employee. So you can lay yourself off and collect unemployment. Yes, it is a little more expensive in good times, but it is paying big dividends now.


Not just for unemployment reasons but also legal liability. Have the company with the sign on the door own the letterhead and not much else. It leases everything else from another company that you also own. You are an employee of the company with the letterhead and all of your employment expenses are now tax deductible, including your solid platinum healthcare which includes dental and optical, not to mention your retirement savings plus the maximum matching funds from the company.

When I say that "you" own it, your family members can also own a share. This way the entire family can go to a shareholders meeting at a resort, restaurant, or wherever. You can also hire the children and pay them a wage instead of giving them an allowance.


I know the vast majority of the strategies: of ownership, depreciation of assets, leases, renting, family, key insurance, home offices, etc, etc.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7663
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:01:20 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
The People We Were



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0fsg8ijn8E

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7664
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:03:34 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8532
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.



I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong


I heard, by which I mean you should question, on the radio hourly news update that 50% of Americans are tapping into their retirement savings because of Covid. In addition that 1/3 of credit card holders are getting their allowable credit reduced.

I kind of give credence to this considering my background. A small business owner is ineligible for unemployment. Their business value (if impacted by lockdwon) is now approaching 0 if not badly into the red.

It simply seems to me that they are damned if they do and certainly damned if they don't. The rational decision is to open up and face the uncertain virus and govt reaction over the certain economic death.


The economic damage is incalculable and will not come back fast. We will hit 20% unemployment and anyone that thinks it will come down to anything close to what it was is either selling you something or running for something (if you choose to think there is a distinction). Here is something else under the iceberg of 30 million unemployed. In this country almost all health insurance is tied to your employment. Yes, there is COBRA, but if you are laid off you need to pay both your share and the former employers share of health insurance so almost everyone will do without. So now we have tens of millions of unemployed people and few of them have health insurance. What can go wrong? More than a few economists have stated it will be 10 years or more before we see sub 5% unemployment again. One of the things our country does worst is train people that are transitioning out of obsolete jobs. So now we have tens of millions that are unemployed, uninsured, probably have some significant debt and have to be retrained for a different job. Hope is never a good strategy but once again, I hope I'm not reading the tea leaves correctly.

I know nothing about running a small business but I do know a few people that run them. Rule #1 is set up the business so you, the owner, are also an employee. So you can lay yourself off and collect unemployment. Yes, it is a little more expensive in good times, but it is paying big dividends now.


Not just for unemployment reasons but also legal liability. Have the company with the sign on the door own the letterhead and not much else. It leases everything else from another company that you also own. You are an employee of the company with the letterhead and all of your employment expenses are now tax deductible, including your solid platinum healthcare which includes dental and optical, not to mention your retirement savings plus the maximum matching funds from the company.

When I say that "you" own it, your family members can also own a share. This way the entire family can go to a shareholders meeting at a resort, restaurant, or wherever. You can also hire the children and pay them a wage instead of giving them an allowance.


I know the vast majority of the strategies: of ownership, depreciation of assets, leases, renting, family, key insurance, home offices, etc, etc.


Incorporated?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7665
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:06:04 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually.




Many congratulations, Eric!

+1

_____________________________


(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 7666
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:08:50 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.



I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong


I heard, by which I mean you should question, on the radio hourly news update that 50% of Americans are tapping into their retirement savings because of Covid. In addition that 1/3 of credit card holders are getting their allowable credit reduced.

I kind of give credence to this considering my background. A small business owner is ineligible for unemployment. Their business value (if impacted by lockdwon) is now approaching 0 if not badly into the red.

It simply seems to me that they are damned if they do and certainly damned if they don't. The rational decision is to open up and face the uncertain virus and govt reaction over the certain economic death.


The economic damage is incalculable and will not come back fast. We will hit 20% unemployment and anyone that thinks it will come down to anything close to what it was is either selling you something or running for something (if you choose to think there is a distinction). Here is something else under the iceberg of 30 million unemployed. In this country almost all health insurance is tied to your employment. Yes, there is COBRA, but if you are laid off you need to pay both your share and the former employers share of health insurance so almost everyone will do without. So now we have tens of millions of unemployed people and few of them have health insurance. What can go wrong? More than a few economists have stated it will be 10 years or more before we see sub 5% unemployment again. One of the things our country does worst is train people that are transitioning out of obsolete jobs. So now we have tens of millions that are unemployed, uninsured, probably have some significant debt and have to be retrained for a different job. Hope is never a good strategy but once again, I hope I'm not reading the tea leaves correctly.

I know nothing about running a small business but I do know a few people that run them. Rule #1 is set up the business so you, the owner, are also an employee. So you can lay yourself off and collect unemployment. Yes, it is a little more expensive in good times, but it is paying big dividends now.


Not just for unemployment reasons but also legal liability. Have the company with the sign on the door own the letterhead and not much else. It leases everything else from another company that you also own. You are an employee of the company with the letterhead and all of your employment expenses are now tax deductible, including your solid platinum healthcare which includes dental and optical, not to mention your retirement savings plus the maximum matching funds from the company.

When I say that "you" own it, your family members can also own a share. This way the entire family can go to a shareholders meeting at a resort, restaurant, or wherever. You can also hire the children and pay them a wage instead of giving them an allowance.


I know the vast majority of the strategies: of ownership, depreciation of assets, leases, renting, family, key insurance, home offices, etc, etc.


Incorporated?


My business was a C Chapter. Over the years I had attorneys, accountants, tax accountants, financial planners, a board of directors, compliance officers, business & professional groups, etc, etc. etc.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/14/2020 8:11:49 PM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7667
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:23:23 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
DOD study raises tantalizing question: does flu shot increase vulnerability to coronaviruses?

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/does-influenza-vaccine-have-any-effect-other-viruses

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7668
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:26:38 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Senators warn of suicide rate increase due to pandemic, suggest more federal mental health funding

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/senators-warn-suicide-rate-increase-due-pandemic-suggest-more-federal

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7669
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:30:45 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
WA Governor To Residents: COVID-Test-Deniers Will Not Be Allowed To Leave Home To Get Groceries
05/13/202


https://www.zerohedge.com/health/nj-governor-residents-covid-test-deniers-will-not-be-allowed-leave-home-get-groceries



"Therefore, those individuals that refuse to cooperate with contact tracers and/or refuse testing will not be allowed to leave their homes to purchase basic necessities such as groceries and/or prescriptions. "

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7670
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:31:45 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8532
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.



I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong


I heard, by which I mean you should question, on the radio hourly news update that 50% of Americans are tapping into their retirement savings because of Covid. In addition that 1/3 of credit card holders are getting their allowable credit reduced.

I kind of give credence to this considering my background. A small business owner is ineligible for unemployment. Their business value (if impacted by lockdwon) is now approaching 0 if not badly into the red.

It simply seems to me that they are damned if they do and certainly damned if they don't. The rational decision is to open up and face the uncertain virus and govt reaction over the certain economic death.


The economic damage is incalculable and will not come back fast. We will hit 20% unemployment and anyone that thinks it will come down to anything close to what it was is either selling you something or running for something (if you choose to think there is a distinction). Here is something else under the iceberg of 30 million unemployed. In this country almost all health insurance is tied to your employment. Yes, there is COBRA, but if you are laid off you need to pay both your share and the former employers share of health insurance so almost everyone will do without. So now we have tens of millions of unemployed people and few of them have health insurance. What can go wrong? More than a few economists have stated it will be 10 years or more before we see sub 5% unemployment again. One of the things our country does worst is train people that are transitioning out of obsolete jobs. So now we have tens of millions that are unemployed, uninsured, probably have some significant debt and have to be retrained for a different job. Hope is never a good strategy but once again, I hope I'm not reading the tea leaves correctly.

I know nothing about running a small business but I do know a few people that run them. Rule #1 is set up the business so you, the owner, are also an employee. So you can lay yourself off and collect unemployment. Yes, it is a little more expensive in good times, but it is paying big dividends now.


Not just for unemployment reasons but also legal liability. Have the company with the sign on the door own the letterhead and not much else. It leases everything else from another company that you also own. You are an employee of the company with the letterhead and all of your employment expenses are now tax deductible, including your solid platinum healthcare which includes dental and optical, not to mention your retirement savings plus the maximum matching funds from the company.

When I say that "you" own it, your family members can also own a share. This way the entire family can go to a shareholders meeting at a resort, restaurant, or wherever. You can also hire the children and pay them a wage instead of giving them an allowance.


I know the vast majority of the strategies: of ownership, depreciation of assets, leases, renting, family, key insurance, home offices, etc, etc.


Incorporated?


My business was a C Chapter. Over the years I had attorneys, accountants, tax accountants, financial planners, a board of directors, compliance officers, business & professional groups, etc, etc. etc.


Smart. I was telling a neighbor some strategies about setting up his business. He became an independent contractor when Ma Bell broke up. He said something that he wished his attorney and his book keeper would have told him these things.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7671
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:38:42 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/theres-plenty-of-meat-in-america-%e2%80%94-for-those-who-can-afford-it/ar-BB141DZr?li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7672
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:39:26 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Venice locals beckon visitors back to the 'dead city'

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/venice-locals-beckon-visitors-back-dead-city-195343155.html

On Venice's famous St Mark's Square, even the pigeons have disappeared. There are no tourists to feed them, so why bother hanging around?
--
My daughter had a trip planned with a group for September. The trip was cancelled, and she lost 25% of the cost of the trip. I doubt she does another planned group tour in a long time, although I hear there is pressure for the travel industry to reform their cancellation provisions because of Covid.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7673
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 8:48:58 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Thought CR could fact check this article:

Coronavirus cases, deaths in Georgia continue to decline, three weeks after re-opening

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/three-weeks-after-re-opening-coronavirus-cases-deaths-georgia-contiue

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7674
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:04:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Yes, that's true. All leading indicators (mortality, new cases, hospitalizations, etc.) are declining in Georgia. I'm worried (wary) about the wheels coming off, but man things seem very promising.

On a separate note, while returning to work an hour ago, a national radio talk show interview between two "experts" caught my ear when one said, "New York is not Georgia." They were making the same point made here earlier today - that the two jurisdictions, what they're dealing with and how they need to deal with it, are different. It's eerie how many times we've had discussion in here and the same thought/data shortly afterwards popped up in the news or talk shows, etc. (It's eerie because I don't have television, don't subscribe to newspapers, and only erratically hear radio news. The thoughts I share here are mostly self-generated, based on my experience, what I learn from you all, and the sources you've pointed me to.)

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7675
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:09:49 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Vitamin D appears to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates
May 8, 2020

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-vitamin-d-role-covid-mortality.html



"After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates. "


"This is exactly where Backman believes vitamin D plays a major role. Not only does vitamin D enhance our innate immune systems, it also prevents our immune systems from becoming dangerously overactive. This means that having healthy levels of vitamin D could protect patients against severe complications, including death, from COVID-19."


""Our analysis shows that it might be as high as cutting the mortality rate in half," Backman said. "




This could be where the summer helps. Maybe where some climates have already helped more than others.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 7676
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:16:17 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
This is interesting. I think effective treatment is the next most important thing to a successful vaccine.

I love hearing stories where people got on top of this early, before it was a pandemic, and were already trying to find solutions.

https://www.wired.com/story/ai-uncovers-potential-treatment-covid-19-patients/?itm_campaign=BottomRelatedStories_Sections_2&itm_content=footer-recirc

LATE ONE JANUARY afternoon, British pharmacologist Peter Richardson ran out of his home office and told his wife, “Got it!” She asked what he was talking about and offered a cup of tea. Richardson explained that he had identified a drug that might help people infected with a new virus spreading in China.

Richardson’s dash was prompted by a finding from artificial intelligence software developed by his employer, BenevolentAI, a London startup where he is vice president of pharmacology. The company has created a kind of search engine on steroids that combines drug industry data with nuggets gleaned from scientific research papers. Using the software, Richardson had identified a rheumatoid arthritis drug that might dampen some of the most severe effects of the new virus, an illness now known as Covid-19.

--------------------

Jonsson says the unexpected suggestion from BenevolentAI prompted Lilly to examine its data on baricitinib. The company also talked with outside researchers who did new lab tests on the drug. Lilly’s experts concluded that BenevolentAI’s hypotheses had merit, particularly the notion that the drug might dampen Covid-19’s dangerous cytokine storms. The company found corroborating evidence in results from early tests of baricitinib in severe Covid-19 cases by doctors in Italy inspired by BenevolentAI’s work. That’s when it opened talks with the government’s infectious disease institute about a trial to test the drug’s effect on Covid-19 patients.


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 7677
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:20:24 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22763
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/theres-plenty-of-meat-in-america-%e2%80%94-for-those-who-can-afford-it/ar-BB141DZr?li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."


The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 7678
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:22:32 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8532
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.


I went to Target today, all of the employees that I saw where wearing masks and one was sanitising the handles of the coolers. The cashier did not have the mask covering her nose and I mentioned that the mask does little good them. She said that it was hard to breathe. I told her to try a M17 gas mask from the military. She said that she heard about those from her step-father who was in the Navy.

I also noticed her accent was not from around here so I asked her where she was from. She said that she was from Alabama. So I told her where she could catch catfish but they would not eat rotten food. I also told her where she could get some good, smoked country style ribs to cook with black-eyed peas. They are leaner than ham hocks but are still very flavorable.

Deep fried catfish, hush puppies, cooked greens, hominy, peach cobbler, and pecan pie . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7679
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/14/2020 9:22:56 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/theres-plenty-of-meat-in-america-%e2%80%94-for-those-who-can-afford-it/ar-BB141DZr?li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."


The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time



The Amish are pretty darn harsh on their animals. But I get you point.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/14/2020 9:24:11 PM >

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7680
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