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RE: OT: Corona virus

 
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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:25:58 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7501
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:29:24 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20348
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK


Let me know how that works out for you. I am not brave enough to go there yet!

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7502
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:30:46 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 895
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7503
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:31:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Loka, I took another look at that chart (https://rt.live/) with regard to your comment (in bold, below). It shows Georgia Ro below 1.0 (at .83) and the confidence interval (margin of error) doesn't reach 1.0, as best I can tell.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).

Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.


Yes, that's the number I was looking at.

The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).


(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7504
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:37:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7505
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:38:11 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.


Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.


We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.



Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

_____________________________


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7506
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:45:31 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......


Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

I think that the rationale for mortgage interest deduction on one's taxes has abated in the last three years. The standard deduction is usually higher for couples filing married (joint) than mortgage interest. Combined with SALT caps for high-tax states (e.g., New York, Mass, NJ, CA), this augurs against the value of property for tax deductibility more recently.


_____________________________


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7507
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:48:48 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 25153
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
JohnDillworth:

Hey John,

A short time back you posted a bit about a few states with an uptick, and I posted the Arizona COVID-19 death numbers from the State's web site which showed the opposite.

I might have discovered what is going on. AZ has a note explaining they recently updated COVID-19 death stats according to CDC guidelines and that might show an increase in deaths for a few days. They also noted the additional deaths counted have been put on the date of death (which seems proper), not the date they added them to the report.

That projection site which many of us have looked at, linked from Worldometer, appears to be showing the additional deaths on the days they were added. I surmise this because on days when the AZ site shows a handful of deaths the projection site is showing 20-ish to 40-ish.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 5/13/2020 1:49:29 PM >


_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7508
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:52:33 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 895
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.


Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.


We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.



Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

Computer equipment I think is a definite. anti-virus, anti-hacking SW once people figure out that evil actors out there are still evil. aircraft might be interesting. If commercial becomes even more of a pain in the tush than it already was, and you have the means, buy your own plane.

Office space in dense cities - likely going to have a hard time. Telco companies will make out well as demand for bandwidth increases. Which reminds me I need to call my cable company to get a better deal.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7509
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:57:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 7510
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:05:42 PM   
Macclan5


Posts: 1044
Joined: 3/24/2016
From: Toronto Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.


Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.


We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.



Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.



https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/consumer-prices-april/index.html

Uneven adjustments.

Very hard to predict.

Full disclaimer - I certainly have no crystal ball.

As above - Some food supply chains - for example - would have been geared for a percentage of restaurant sales. Restaurant sales have dried up. Some foods going to waste - sadly - others in high demand

I do wonder if "vacations" no longer mean "airplane getaways" and "cruise" - but are family camping trips in local states - so perhaps RVs will be in demand ? So Winnebago's ?

I would only caution using historic indicators and predictors ultimately because in the short term we cannot predict the changes in consumer behavior and "trends". Further if e-commerce will truly fully disrupt traditional Retail and Wholesale.

The 2008-9 Crisis caused some restructuring and changes but was not fundamentally a health crisis. It was an asset/debt bubble so to speak.

Will Health concerns change some patterns more fundementally?


_____________________________

A People that values its privileges above it's principles will soon loose both. Dwight D Eisenhower.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7511
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:06:11 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 895
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......


Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

I think that the rationale for mortgage interest deduction on one's taxes has abated in the last three years. The standard deduction is usually higher for couples filing married (joint) than mortgage interest. Combined with SALT caps for high-tax states (e.g., New York, Mass, NJ, CA), this augurs against the value of property for tax deductibility more recently.


Fair enough. I was doing volunteer tax returns as part of the AARP program this year before we got shut down. The newer 'higher deduction' helps many people but the elimination of a bunch of legacy deductions hurts a few. All that said, if you can borrow at 3ish% there could be decent returns in other areas - not fixed income or annuities IMO. Real estate up here seems to be getting stronger as NYC folk are thinking they don't want to live in the petri dish.

The other thing I learned as a tax volunteer is that the tax code is even more screwed up than I thought beforehand.....

Charitable donations still work well.....so if you are so inclined you may want to give earlier this year - a bunch of those organizations are really hurting.

< Message edited by fcooke -- 5/13/2020 2:08:05 PM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7512
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:12:02 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.


Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.


We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.



Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.

Computer equipment I think is a definite. anti-virus, anti-hacking SW once people figure out that evil actors out there are still evil. aircraft might be interesting. If commercial becomes even more of a pain in the tush than it already was, and you have the means, buy your own plane.

Office space in dense cities - likely going to have a hard time. Telco companies will make out well as demand for bandwidth increases. Which reminds me I need to call my cable company to get a better deal.


Amidst all the hustle and pandemic bustle, I'd almost forgotten about the nascent move to 5G networking. Ought to be some good hardware and REIT plays (e.g., AMT) in there.

_____________________________


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7513
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:18:04 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9312
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......


Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

I think that the rationale for mortgage interest deduction on one's taxes has abated in the last three years. The standard deduction is usually higher for couples filing married (joint) than mortgage interest. Combined with SALT caps for high-tax states (e.g., New York, Mass, NJ, CA), this augurs against the value of property for tax deductibility more recently.


Fair enough. I was doing volunteer tax returns as part of the AARP program this year before we got shut down. The newer 'higher deduction' helps many people but the elimination of a bunch of legacy deductions hurts a few. All that said, if you can borrow at 3ish% there could be decent returns in other areas - not fixed income or annuities IMO. Real estate up here seems to be getting stronger as NYC folk are thinking they don't want to live in the petri dish.

The other thing I learned as a tax volunteer is that the tax code is even more screwed up than I thought beforehand.....

Charitable donations still work well.....so if you are so inclined you may want to give earlier this year - a bunch of those organizations are really hurting.


The mortgage interest deduction was to encourage people to purchase their own home. For some people that makes sense but for others it does not.

I noted before that I don't bother to file income taxes. But yes, I will give to charities and help others directly. Especially young boys and girls with candy and toys. No, this phat man will not wear a red suit.

All of those deductions are for special interests, eliminate most of those and a lot of lawyers and accountants will have to find real work. Business executives will have to learn to run a business instead of milking the tax code. Those things do not sound like a bad idea.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7514
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:25:46 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22902
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: online
After all this talk about packing houses I have begun hoarding meat I was at Stater Bros and they had rib eyes for $5.99 a pound so instead I bought a 12 lb, 4 rib roast. We still had about 6 lbs of smoked brisket and half a ham I found for 99 cents a pound so I made a big batch of chile with the brisket and my wife made pea soup with the ham. I can't help myself.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7515
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:32:36 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Paid off a 30 year in 19 years. It was never a big thing, just part of the monthly budget, less and less so as the years went on. That being said it one of the happiest days of my life when made that last payment. One gets a whole different attitude when you have no debt and own your own home. It is traditional in many parts of the country to paint your front door red when you make your last mortgage payment. Haven't done that, and its been years, because my wife and I can't agree on the shade of red. 33 years, know each other since we were 15, 3 kids through college and can't agree on a shade of paint. I heard recently that the secret to a great long marriage is "what you don't say". Not worth it I suppose

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7516
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:38:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
The parallels continue, John. My wife and I married 33 years, three kids, paid off home.


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7517
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:39:21 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

After all this talk about packing houses I have begun hoarding meat I was at Stater Bros and they had rib eyes for $5.99 a pound so instead I bought a 12 lb, 4 rib roast. We still had about 6 lbs of smoked brisket and half a ham I found for 99 cents a pound so I made a big batch of chile with the brisket and my wife made pea soup with the ham. I can't help myself.

quote:

After all this talk about packing houses I have begun hoarding meat I was at Stater Bros and they had rib eyes for $5.99 a pound so instead I bought a 12 lb, 4 rib roast. We still had about 6 lbs of smoked brisket and half a ham I found for 99 cents a pound so I made a big batch of chile with the brisket and my wife made pea soup with the ham. I can't help myself.


I think that is why I went out for that fast food burger. Because I heard they were getting scarce. When this first started people were hording toilet paper and meat. For the life of me I still don't understand the toilet paper but I kind of understood the groceries. First couple of weeks everything was unknown and scary. Anyway, all the meat was gone. And then I found out that you couldn't buy a chest freezer! Sold out all across the country. So not only were they hoarding meat they were buying freezers to horde more meat. We eat little meat to begin with but we do it some. Still, not a great hardship. It's available, but it is expensive. Had steak last night as as it was jsut my wife and I we paid for the good stuff. As you say Rib Eye, that is good eats on the grill

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7518
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:42:42 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).


Dan, would you mind finding and providing the retraction from that The Atlantic article in question? Just post the relevant parts where they demonstrate contrition and remorse for really screwing the pooch on their prognostication and apologize for the acerbic, condescending and holier-than-thou haughty language? The one where they indicate in subtext that the piece was too heavy on political finger wagging and that the editor and 'reporter' have been disciplined in accordance with journalistic standards? I haven't been able to find it and thought you might have better luck than I in finding it.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7519
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:47:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7520
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:51:40 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6392
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.


Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.


We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.



Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.



https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/consumer-prices-april/index.html

Uneven adjustments.

Very hard to predict.

Full disclaimer - I certainly have no crystal ball.

As above - Some food supply chains - for example - would have been geared for a percentage of restaurant sales. Restaurant sales have dried up. Some foods going to waste - sadly - others in high demand

I do wonder if "vacations" no longer mean "airplane getaways" and "cruise" - but are family camping trips in local states - so perhaps RVs will be in demand ? So Winnebago's ?

I would only caution using historic indicators and predictors ultimately because in the short term we cannot predict the changes in consumer behavior and "trends". Further if e-commerce will truly fully disrupt traditional Retail and Wholesale.

The 2008-9 Crisis caused some restructuring and changes but was not fundamentally a health crisis. It was an asset/debt bubble so to speak.

Will Health concerns change some patterns more fundementally?



I did recently mention in this thread the problem of inventories increasing.

Heard on the radio today an economics reporter sate that March year on year sales of new automobiles fell 90% in France and 98% in Italy. Those two countries experience will not be friendless.

Alfred

(in reply to Macclan5)
Post #: 7521
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:57:21 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6392
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up.



That's not fair. Meet the Press admitted their hatchet job last weekend. Still waiting for 60 Minutes to admit to their hatchet job.

For those not aware of what transpired, both deliberately edited out full answers provided by the Foreign Secretary and the A-G. The edited "answer" broadcast was one which allowed cheap shots at the integrity of the officials.

Alfred

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7522
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:13:07 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 895
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Paid off a 30 year in 19 years. It was never a big thing, just part of the monthly budget, less and less so as the years went on. That being said it one of the happiest days of my life when made that last payment. One gets a whole different attitude when you have no debt and own your own home. It is traditional in many parts of the country to paint your front door red when you make your last mortgage payment. Haven't done that, and its been years, because my wife and I can't agree on the shade of red. 33 years, know each other since we were 15, 3 kids through college and can't agree on a shade of paint. I heard recently that the secret to a great long marriage is "what you don't say". Not worth it I suppose

Oddly enough, I now live in a converted barn. The front door is red but I had never heard about that before you posted it. No mortgage, but might take one out - we shall see. Rest of the barn is green but we will move it to red on the next paint job. We are having an 'essential' kitchen remodel done at the moment. The wife unit is stir crazy at the moment so I have chosen to not engage and she can have whatever colors she wants......I have also learned when to be quiet....only 23 years so far.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7523
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:24:48 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9312
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

My family has switched over too. We opened up a separate petty cash debit card, with no more than a few hundred dollar balance (in case it gets hacked/stolen). The card actually pays 10 cents every time we use it to pay for a transaction in person -- encouraging us to use it for smaller transactions. It has reduced our cash transactions almost to 0.

The next frontier is a phone app. The reasoning is that you can pay without touching anything. It is shows a QR code or does near field communication. They seem to be almost universal. Going to look into Apple Pay later today. My problem is I have an almost fanatical aversion to debt of any sort. I never really had a problem with debt, but hated having a mortgage. I don't want to owe anybody anything and I don't. I think I can link the payment directly to my bank account just like a debit card so that will probably make me feel better. As long as there are no fees or interest I should be OK

Hate debt as well. That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......

Paid off a 30 year in 19 years. It was never a big thing, just part of the monthly budget, less and less so as the years went on. That being said it one of the happiest days of my life when made that last payment. One gets a whole different attitude when you have no debt and own your own home. It is traditional in many parts of the country to paint your front door red when you make your last mortgage payment. Haven't done that, and its been years, because my wife and I can't agree on the shade of red. 33 years, know each other since we were 15, 3 kids through college and can't agree on a shade of paint. I heard recently that the secret to a great long marriage is "what you don't say". Not worth it I suppose

Oddly enough, I now live in a converted barn. The front door is red but I had never heard about that before you posted it. No mortgage, but might take one out - we shall see. Rest of the barn is green but we will move it to red on the next paint job. We are having an 'essential' kitchen remodel done at the moment. The wife unit is stir crazy at the moment so I have chosen to not engage and she can have whatever colors she wants......I have also learned when to be quiet....only 23 years so far.


Still free . . .
So I can do whatever I want and not get slapped . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7524
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:26:09 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2264
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......


Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.



That's us! If you can refinance, you should. We're going from 5% to 2.85 and 28 years to 20, and the payment is the same. Total amount paid over the life of the loan dropped by a full third.

_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7525
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:28:21 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9312
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.


Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.


We did our big shopping trip yesterday, went to 2 groceries and Costco. Meat expensive, and one grocery was almost totally sold out. Baking supplies restricted purchase inventory and choice very low. Milk plentiful (used to be restricted). Eggs getting more expensive and brands we never saw before. Butter cheaper. Toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex difficult to find and impossible to find the brands my wife swears by. Cleaning supplies restricted and difficult to find.



Two weeks ago, I couldn't find kitchen sponges to save my soul. It's interesting to watch the rotation of consumer goods' demand re: groceries. My big question is: what's next? Not so much for supermarket goods, but what will be the next 'gotta have' consumer good as we emerge from quarantine? Household durable goods (a new washing machine or oven)? Home improvement / yard improvement sorts of goods? Laptop or computer upgrades for home workers?

Pretty sure I know what it won't be: automobiles, boats / yachts, aircraft (commercial or private) and RVs. Like the great recession of 12 years ago, these industries will take years to get back to snuff. Winnebago sales were a great leading indicator of the 2008-2009 recession. I think they'll be a good indicator for this one too.



https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/economy/consumer-prices-april/index.html

Uneven adjustments.

Very hard to predict.

Full disclaimer - I certainly have no crystal ball.

As above - Some food supply chains - for example - would have been geared for a percentage of restaurant sales. Restaurant sales have dried up. Some foods going to waste - sadly - others in high demand

I do wonder if "vacations" no longer mean "airplane getaways" and "cruise" - but are family camping trips in local states - so perhaps RVs will be in demand ? So Winnebago's ?

I would only caution using historic indicators and predictors ultimately because in the short term we cannot predict the changes in consumer behavior and "trends". Further if e-commerce will truly fully disrupt traditional Retail and Wholesale.

The 2008-9 Crisis caused some restructuring and changes but was not fundamentally a health crisis. It was an asset/debt bubble so to speak.

Will Health concerns change some patterns more fundementally?


I did recently mention in this thread the problem of inventories increasing.

Heard on the radio today an economics reporter sate that March year on year sales of new automobiles fell 90% in France and 98% in Italy. Those two countries experience will not be friendless.

Alfred


I heard that there were good deals on automobiles. I have other needs to attend to first but I can afford them. If I can get some money together, maybe I will see about purchasing a vehicle. I also read where Hertz is downsizing their fleet.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 7526
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:31:38 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9312
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pennsylvania just gets stranger and stranger.

Adding fuel to the fire was the was admission that Health Secretary Levine removed her mother from a personal care home while not allowing the same priviledge to every other Pennsylvanian, as reported by State Representative Seth Grove of York County. Remember folks, this is the same Secretary Levine who sentenced hundreds of elderly Pennsylvanians to death by forcing the admission of Covid19 patients to nursing homes. On Monday morning, Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano called for the removal of Secretary of Health Dr. Levine, who he says has committed medical malpractice in mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.


That sounds good to me but I don't live there.

I wonder about manslaughter charges . . .


Egads, you are kind of blood thirsty!

In the short run, this person's ability to lead has been seriously hurt and it hurts the Governor very badly. I suspect a resignation might be forthcoming.

In the longer term, I am not certain on the viability of suing the State, but lawyers are an innovative bunch of people.



Tar, feathers, a rail....


I am not blood thirsty. I have never had Black pudding (blood pudding) nor do I care for blood sausage. I have had blood sausage. Give me a good Thuringian bratwurst. Even with curry ketchsup and curry powder on it. Mit pomme frites und mayonaise, und ein gute bier!

But the idea is to send a message that such actions are not tolerated. Just having them resign probably is not punishment enough since they people involved will probably just become a paid lobbyist, lobbying their cronies still in government. And regular prison, no country club. In fact, put them in with lifers whose grandparents died from Covid-19 but don't give them special protection. I wonder if they would then squeal like a pig . . .


But still you would look awfully silly if the reason behind pulling out her mother was a well documented case of elder abuse.


I would not look silly since the investigators would be looking for just that, an explainable motive. Of course, then the question to be asked is "Was that personal care home shut down?"

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7527
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:33:45 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9312
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke
That said, the govt encourages you to have a mortgage in the US (tax write-offs), rates are low now, high dividend stocks are cheap. Bank savings interest rates are horrible. Just saying......


Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.



That's us! If you can refinance, you should. We're going from 5% to 2.85 and 28 years to 20, and the payment is the same. Total amount paid over the life of the loan dropped by a full third.


If you can afford to, pay more and it will get paid off even faster. Especially early on when the interest paid is such a large part of the payment.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 5/13/2020 4:56:05 PM >


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 7528
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:39:34 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20348
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Coronavirus In Pennsylvania: Attorney General Opens Criminal Investigation Into Nursing Homes


https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/05/12/pennsylvania-attorney-general-nursing-home-coronavirus-investigations/


I have no idea where all this will end. The cynic in me -- is that the State will fully prosecute some nursing homes to divert blame from their own orders.

More information on the Sec of Health moving her 93 year old mother out of a nursing home, and into a hotel while mandating nursing homes take covid positive patients and denying them the already setup state level nursing home mitigation program.

Doesn't look good.

Meanwhile a town near me did say they are going to open up. In addition, another town turn turned down a visit from the President (and a detail of 20 security/aides) on the grounds it was too dangerous. Instead the President is visiting a company in Allentown area of Pennsylvania tomorrow. Meanwhile, Bucks County (democrat) still has not heard from the office of the Governor.


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7529
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 3:59:57 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20348
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
This tactic is really go viral across the United States, I hear even states are adopting it.

Portland Public Schools plans to furlough teachers, principals, other staffers 1 day a week -- but they’d make more money not less

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2020/05/portland-public-schools-plans-to-furlough-teachers-principals-other-staffers-1-day-a-week-but-theyd-make-more-money-not-less.html

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7530
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