From: Iowan in MD/DC
Links to separate sites provided in recent days by Lowpe and John Dillworth both have Georgia Ro rate at less than 1 (one was at 0.92, the other at 0.84, as of this a.m.). Every statistical category that I've seen has been trending down for weeks. Significantly, on the 10th the IHME projection for mortality dropped from 4,900 to 3,500.
IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).
Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.
Yes, that's the number I was looking at.
The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).
rt.live is what Lowpe linked. It has Georgia at 0.85 estimated on May 5th, but I stand by my confidence interval statement.
This is weird. IHME apparently just issued yet another revision for mortality in Georgia. On Saturday the projection was 4,900. Last night, it was 3,500. This afternoon it's 2,000.
And no longer are we projected to have a seemingly interminable "table" on the chart. We're projected to drop each day, so that we're on the downside of the bell curve.
US projections revised again, too (up to 147k).
IHME is revising so often and so sharply that there may be serious doubts about its utility.
I actually find sharp revisions to be more useful than a series of similar results because it tells you more about the influencing factors and how much/whether they really matter.