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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 7:39:52 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22902
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:


Lab-grown meat has a lot of benefits all over the economy, if/when we get there, particularly for allocation of resources on farms.


I don't believe for a second that could be economically done. IT'S A TRAP! It's not magic. You have to have a substrate. Where are the amino acids going to come from? You would have to have a high quality protein source. It's not practical to synthesize 20 amino acids de novo and just throw them in a big pot. Suppose you get pure amino acids in the right ratios and now you want myocytes to reproduce infinitely without dying. You know what that is? Meat cancer, that's what.

The minute you close the last ranch the factory suddenly burns down.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 7441
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 8:03:11 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
Spoke to a co-worker by phone today. He got Covid 5 weeks ago. He works on the same floor as I do and we travel in the same spaces including data centers, hallways, bathrooms, doors, pantry's ect but since we were working alternate days I didn't come into personal contact. 2 other people on the floor got sick but had relatively mild symptoms. Marcos was in the hospital for 4 days, 103 fever, oxygen, no vent, discharged with an oxygen tank, ran a fever for 3 weeks, lost 18 pounds and can now barely walk. He is expected to make a full recovery, in time. Right now he is afraid to ride public transportation and is too weak to drive. He is just working up to walking around the block for now. Haven't been any cases among the reaming essential personnel in my agency in a month and we have had most of the sick ones come back so today was a good day. Things are looking up

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7442
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 8:28:28 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
The consumer price index took a big drop. Food and rent are up. Everything else is down. On paper it sounds like a good thing but what it means is people are not spending money. Maybe some of that is travel, hotels and entertainment or, more troubling, people either don't feel secure spending money or they don't have it to spend. Here is the big worry. Consumer spending makes up 70% of the U.S. economy. 70%. A big drop in the CPI is not good news for the economy. As with all things these day, I hope it is a temporary blip. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/u-s-core-consumer-price-index-posts-record-0-4-monthly-decline

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7443
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 8:31:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Links to separate sites provided in recent days by Lowpe and John Dillworth both have Georgia Ro rate at less than 1 (one was at 0.92, the other at 0.84, as of this a.m.). Every statistical category that I've seen has been trending down for weeks. Significantly, on the 10th the IHME projection for mortality dropped from 4,900 to 3,500.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).

Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.


Yes, that's the number I was looking at.

The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/12/2020 8:34:05 PM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7444
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 8:46:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Is this discussion about synthetic meat, actually created/grown/cultured in a lab? That's not going to fly nearly anywhere in the US.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:


Lab-grown meat has a lot of benefits all over the economy, if/when we get there, particularly for allocation of resources on farms.


I don't believe for a second that could be economically done. IT'S A TRAP! It's not magic. You have to have a substrate. Where are the amino acids going to come from? You would have to have a high quality protein source. It's not practical to synthesize 20 amino acids de novo and just throw them in a big pot. Suppose you get pure amino acids in the right ratios and now you want myocytes to reproduce infinitely without dying. You know what that is? Meat cancer, that's what.

The minute you close the last ranch the factory suddenly burns down.


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7445
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 8:53:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
This is weird. IHME apparently just issued yet another revision for mortality in Georgia. On Saturday the projection was 4,900. Last night, it was 3,500. This afternoon it's 2,000.

And no longer are we projected to have a seemingly interminable "table" on the chart. We're projected to drop each day, so that we're on the downside of the bell curve.

US projections revised again, too (up to 147k).

IHME is revising so often and so sharply that there may be serious doubts about its utility.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7446
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 9:07:35 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
Not sure if this report is accurate or not but an unreleased White House report, while less optimistic than the official position, shows Georgia as "stable". There are some concerns for Texas and Wisconsin seems to have problems. It seems this thing is getting out of the big cities and spreading around middle America (whatever the hell that is ) a bit. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/unreleased-white-house-report-shows-coronavirus-rates-spiking-heartland-communities-n1204751

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7447
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 9:23:43 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Not sure if this report is accurate or not but an unreleased White House report, while less optimistic than the official position, shows Georgia as "stable". There are some concerns for Texas and Wisconsin seems to have problems. It seems this thing is getting out of the big cities and spreading around middle America (whatever the hell that is ) a bit. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/unreleased-white-house-report-shows-coronavirus-rates-spiking-heartland-communities-n1204751


This thing has been spreading around big cities, small cities, rural farmland small towns, vacation cities and towns and every other iteration you can think of for the last 2 months. It's not a recent thing. There have been some hotspots here and there periodically, but they haven't seemed to translate into a dumpster fire, like NYC.

The report talks about % increase as being 'areas to watch' and absolute numbers of cases, without accounting for the denominator. Texas has seen 7,000 cases in 7 days! Yup. We've also more than doubled testing in about that time frame. The overall % of positives has been dropping. People that are of 'high interest' with appropriate clinical signs or in at risk environments where this thing could induce community spread are still less only positive ~5% of the time. When you compare to New York City's 35-40% attack rate in the height of their problem or New Jersey's >50% attack rate, this is a very different disease dynamic down here than it is / was for you guys.

_____________________________


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7448
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 10:07:47 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:


Lab-grown meat has a lot of benefits all over the economy, if/when we get there, particularly for allocation of resources on farms.


I don't believe for a second that could be economically done. IT'S A TRAP! It's not magic. You have to have a substrate. Where are the amino acids going to come from? You would have to have a high quality protein source. It's not practical to synthesize 20 amino acids de novo and just throw them in a big pot. Suppose you get pure amino acids in the right ratios and now you want myocytes to reproduce infinitely without dying. You know what that is? Meat cancer, that's what.

The minute you close the last ranch the factory suddenly burns down.


I so want it to be magic. I want to print up a porterhouse steak on meatjet at home.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7449
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 10:12:40 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Anxiety From Reactions to Covid-19 Will Destroy At Least Seven Times More Years of Life Than Can Be Saved by Lockdowns

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_anxiety_lockdowns_life_destroyed_saved




Huh?

Compared to what, the baseline without the existence of COVID? That's a dumb comparison. It's not like COVID wouldn't exist if there weren't lockdowns (quite the opposite in fact).

This "article" sets off my BS alarms.



That is my thought too. I especially was concerned about the very difficult measurement to prove.

Although, I am also skeptical about the efficacy of lock-downs.

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7450
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 10:15:52 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
California State University campuses to remain closed through fall semester

https://abc7.com/csu-fall-classes-cal-state-university-system-canceled-in-person/6176291/

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7451
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 10:28:53 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
L.A. County stay-at-home order likely to be extended through July to fight coronavirus


https://ktla.com/

I think LA County has a population larger than 30 states.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7452
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 10:54:04 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

EID Volume 26 Journal No 5 May 2020

Hot of the presses

Interesting reading on the efficacy of washing hands, wearing masks, and cleaning surfaces. I really wish they would study vitamin D supplements and deficiencies, as some other countries have done with I think promising results (and I linked to some of them in previous posts).

I am amazed by how little we actually know about how the influenza virus is transmitted given our long history of it.



< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/12/2020 10:59:01 PM >

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7453
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 11:13:47 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
The Impact of
COVID-19
on children

https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/policy_brief_on_covid_impact_on_children_16_april_2020.pdf


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7454
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 11:28:46 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9354
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Not sure if this report is accurate or not but an unreleased White House report, while less optimistic than the official position, shows Georgia as "stable". There are some concerns for Texas and Wisconsin seems to have problems. It seems this thing is getting out of the big cities and spreading around middle America (whatever the hell that is ) a bit. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/unreleased-white-house-report-shows-coronavirus-rates-spiking-heartland-communities-n1204751


"Middle America" is the part of the United States between the coastal states. Some people refer to it as "flyover country" since they have no reason to stop there.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7455
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 11:33:48 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9354
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Spoke to a co-worker by phone today. He got Covid 5 weeks ago. He works on the same floor as I do and we travel in the same spaces including data centers, hallways, bathrooms, doors, pantry's ect but since we were working alternate days I didn't come into personal contact. 2 other people on the floor got sick but had relatively mild symptoms. Marcos was in the hospital for 4 days, 103 fever, oxygen, no vent, discharged with an oxygen tank, ran a fever for 3 weeks, lost 18 pounds and can now barely walk. He is expected to make a full recovery, in time. Right now he is afraid to ride public transportation and is too weak to drive. He is just working up to walking around the block for now. Haven't been any cases among the reaming essential personnel in my agency in a month and we have had most of the sick ones come back so today was a good day. Things are looking up


I once lost 50 pounds in 5 weeks and was water bloated at the end of that time. Tell your co-worker to take it easy on the physical therapy part. Don't overdo it as it can make some things worse. A person loses 80 percent of their fine motor control when the are bedridden for one week. That is why it is so hard to walk and the risk of falls is higher. The fall is not the problem, it is the sudden stop at the end of it. It is better to do a lot of short exercise periods rather than an intense workout.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7456
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 11:35:34 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9354
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:


Lab-grown meat has a lot of benefits all over the economy, if/when we get there, particularly for allocation of resources on farms.


I don't believe for a second that could be economically done. IT'S A TRAP! It's not magic. You have to have a substrate. Where are the amino acids going to come from? You would have to have a high quality protein source. It's not practical to synthesize 20 amino acids de novo and just throw them in a big pot. Suppose you get pure amino acids in the right ratios and now you want myocytes to reproduce infinitely without dying. You know what that is? Meat cancer, that's what.

The minute you close the last ranch the factory suddenly burns down.


Not just the amino acids in the correct ratio, you also have to have all of the essential minerals, vitamins, and other chemicals in the precise amounts otherwise it will not work.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7457
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 11:39:33 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9354
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

What do you do with all of the animals if it all became meat from a factory? How about the over population of deer? There is a lot of agricultural land that is not suitable for crops, instead it is used for animals.


And there is a lot of land that is suitable for crops but is instead used for animals or the crops to feed them. Here are stats just for Iowa (offered without independent vetting of their claims and obviously not every acre used for pigs could be converted to crops, but a large portion of them could be - Iowa just isn't that geographically diverse):

https://www.iowapork.org/news-from-the-iowa-pork-producers-association/iowa-pork-facts/
6200 pig farms
22 million pigs at any one time (that's a lot of grain being used to feed pigs)
25% of all corn/soybean acreage in Iowa is used just to feed these pigs

https://www.lhf.org/learning-fields/crops/iowa-farm-facts/
Per 2012 numbers, produces the most eggs and pork of any state (and corn/soybeans)
1.3M acres of pastureland (not all of this is used for food-animal production obviously)
30.6M acres of farmland, of which 26.25M acres are crops (so perhaps as much as 6.5M acres are used to feed pigs alone)

Lab-grown meat has a lot of benefits all over the economy, if/when we get there, particularly for allocation of resources on farms.


It might improve the odor in Iowa. But will you be first in line for your daily ration of Soylent Green?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7458
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/12/2020 11:54:13 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
According to wikipedia, this guy is considered center right. What exactly that means, I don't know. But I can guess a bit.

But at the link, are links to his weekly articles during the coivd pandemic. I found them interesting reading. You might too, if you have a spare half hour to hour.



Fraser Nelson is the editor of The Spectator and a columnist for The Daily Telegraph. He is also a member of the advisory board of the Centre for Social Justice and the Centre for Policy Studies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/fraser-nelson/

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7459
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 12:00:23 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9354
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The consumer price index took a big drop. Food and rent are up. Everything else is down. On paper it sounds like a good thing but what it means is people are not spending money. Maybe some of that is travel, hotels and entertainment or, more troubling, people either don't feel secure spending money or they don't have it to spend. Here is the big worry. Consumer spending makes up 70% of the U.S. economy. 70%. A big drop in the CPI is not good news for the economy. As with all things these day, I hope it is a temporary blip. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/u-s-core-consumer-price-index-posts-record-0-4-monthly-decline


For those on fixed incomes, a drop in prices in not a bad thing. The only problem is the food but the price of eggs is back to normal here and instead of meat for protein, drink more milk and eat cheese to help the dairy farmers.

I want there to be a nice price drop on computers as I need a new one. Unfortunately, if more people start working remotely as a permanent thing, then the price of computers may stay higher.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7460
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 12:35:11 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

I once lost 50 pounds in 5 weeks and was water bloated at the end of that time. Tell your co-worker to take it easy on the physical therapy part. Don't overdo it as it can make some things worse. A person loses 80 percent of their fine motor control when the are bedridden for one week. That is why it is so hard to walk and the risk of falls is higher. The fall is not the problem, it is the sudden stop at the end of it. It is better to do a lot of short exercise periods rather than an intense workout.
Thanks, he wasn't a big guy before this. He will work from home for a long time. Better I can pick his brain. It will be a long recovery. We got a bunch over in the 911 call center that we will eventually have a memorial service for so count your blessings I suppose

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7461
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:00:27 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9354
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I once lost 50 pounds in 5 weeks and was water bloated at the end of that time. Tell your co-worker to take it easy on the physical therapy part. Don't overdo it as it can make some things worse. A person loses 80 percent of their fine motor control when the are bedridden for one week. That is why it is so hard to walk and the risk of falls is higher. The fall is not the problem, it is the sudden stop at the end of it. It is better to do a lot of short exercise periods rather than an intense workout.
Thanks, he wasn't a big guy before this. He will work from home for a long time. Better I can pick his brain. It will be a long recovery. We got a bunch over in the 911 call center that we will eventually have a memorial service for so count your blessings I suppose


Every day that I am on this side of the grass, I count my blessings.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7462
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:39:59 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
Madison County officials vote to re-open, defying Pritzker's orders

https://www.kmov.com/news/madison-county-officials-vote-to-re-open-defying-pritzkers-orders/article_120d863a-9440-11ea-8d0e-db08fdb68fed.html

Illinois county

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7463
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:50:39 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20351
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: online
Pennsylvania just gets stranger and stranger.

Adding fuel to the fire was the was admission that Health Secretary Levine removed her mother from a personal care home while not allowing the same priviledge to every other Pennsylvanian, as reported by State Representative Seth Grove of York County. Remember folks, this is the same Secretary Levine who sentenced hundreds of elderly Pennsylvanians to death by forcing the admission of Covid19 patients to nursing homes. On Monday morning, Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano called for the removal of Secretary of Health Dr. Levine, who he says has committed medical malpractice in mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7464
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:52:51 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 9354
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pennsylvania just gets stranger and stranger.

Adding fuel to the fire was the was admission that Health Secretary Levine removed her mother from a personal care home while not allowing the same priviledge to every other Pennsylvanian, as reported by State Representative Seth Grove of York County. Remember folks, this is the same Secretary Levine who sentenced hundreds of elderly Pennsylvanians to death by forcing the admission of Covid19 patients to nursing homes. On Monday morning, Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano called for the removal of Secretary of Health Dr. Levine, who he says has committed medical malpractice in mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.


That sounds good to me but I don't live there.

I wonder about manslaughter charges . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7465
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 1:56:45 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9158
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:


Lab-grown meat has a lot of benefits all over the economy, if/when we get there, particularly for allocation of resources on farms.


I don't believe for a second that could be economically done. IT'S A TRAP! It's not magic. You have to have a substrate. Where are the amino acids going to come from? You would have to have a high quality protein source. It's not practical to synthesize 20 amino acids de novo and just throw them in a big pot. Suppose you get pure amino acids in the right ratios and now you want myocytes to reproduce infinitely without dying. You know what that is? Meat cancer, that's what.

The minute you close the last ranch the factory suddenly burns down.


It would, because we as a species are basically Arthur Dent.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7466
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:00:51 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9158
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Links to separate sites provided in recent days by Lowpe and John Dillworth both have Georgia Ro rate at less than 1 (one was at 0.92, the other at 0.84, as of this a.m.). Every statistical category that I've seen has been trending down for weeks. Significantly, on the 10th the IHME projection for mortality dropped from 4,900 to 3,500.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).

Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.


Yes, that's the number I was looking at.

The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).




rt.live is what Lowpe linked. It has Georgia at 0.85 estimated on May 5th, but I stand by my confidence interval statement.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is weird. IHME apparently just issued yet another revision for mortality in Georgia. On Saturday the projection was 4,900. Last night, it was 3,500. This afternoon it's 2,000.

And no longer are we projected to have a seemingly interminable "table" on the chart. We're projected to drop each day, so that we're on the downside of the bell curve.

US projections revised again, too (up to 147k).

IHME is revising so often and so sharply that there may be serious doubts about its utility.


I actually find sharp revisions to be more useful than a series of similar results because it tells you more about the influencing factors and how much/whether they really matter.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7467
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:06:41 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9158
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is this discussion about synthetic meat, actually created/grown/cultured in a lab? That's not going to fly nearly anywhere in the US.




Completely disagree. Not everybody has to switch for lab-grown meat to be a thing that is available at the store.

From 2018, 40% of Americans said they'd try it: https://www.fooddive.com/news/survey-40-of-americans-are-willing-to-try-lab-grown-meat/523402/. If it is comparable to animal-grown meat in quality, and cheaper? Most people vote with their wallets... If it's comparable and a bit more expensive? Many fewer people would switch over, but some would because of the externalities and having the economic power to choose the cleaner method of production.

The headline on this one is a little misleading, implying that consumers in the US would not be willing to buy lab-grown or plant-based meat: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/5/18250033/vegan-vegetarian-clean-meat-cultured-plant-based. It then proceeds to show the breakdowns, showing that only 23.6% of respondents would not be at all willing to buy lab-grown meat and that 25.3% of respondents would not be willing to buy plant-based meat. The real store in there is that 75% of respondents would be willing to buy it (and sure, that isn't the 90%+ that it is in India and China, but whatever - 75% to 25% is a big majority).

Lab-grown meat won't kill off the farming of livestock for slaughter, but it will impact it.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7468
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:07:47 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9158
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Anxiety From Reactions to Covid-19 Will Destroy At Least Seven Times More Years of Life Than Can Be Saved by Lockdowns

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_anxiety_lockdowns_life_destroyed_saved




Huh?

Compared to what, the baseline without the existence of COVID? That's a dumb comparison. It's not like COVID wouldn't exist if there weren't lockdowns (quite the opposite in fact).

This "article" sets off my BS alarms.



That is my thought too. I especially was concerned about the very difficult measurement to prove.

Although, I am also skeptical about the efficacy of lock-downs.


Depends on how you're measuring efficacy.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7469
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/13/2020 2:44:31 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 16123
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The problem with the masks and gloves (I work in spaces where other people touch stuff, I think gloves are as important as masks) is that is easy to get complacent. I’m super careful at work and don’t need the ppe at home so if I go out for a walk or errand I catch myself being a little sloppy. It is strange using cash. Went out for a rare does of fast food and handed the person at the drive in cash. I didn’t think anything of it until he handed me my change in cash. Money is a dirty thing. I always use cash but I suppose that is a habit that many of us will have to change. Not a big thing wearing a mask now but it gets hot and humid in the summer. Not going to be happy about this going forward

Following Australia's example, Canada switched to a mylar-based dollar because it is more durable, cheaper in the long run and isn't destroyed by being left in your pocket in the washing machine. So you can wash your paper and coin cash before tendering it to someone for your fast food, collect the change in a bag and wash it when you get home. Don't forget to put the stopper in the sink!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7470
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