Got it. Sorry if I misunderstood your thinking..
I'm not sure what you mean.
The written word is very hard to communicate effectively with.
There obviously has been a lot of work done on modeling diseases and their impact on healthcare. However, Ferguson himself says he never thought a lockdown would be initiated in today's world. It was outside of his comprehension.
There was, to my mind, never an analysis of what the effects of a lockdown could be in the rush to prevent a medical collapse the goal was deemed so important as to justify almost any decision. Nothing ever operates in a vacuum, and the law of unintended consequences always rule while another law was broken.
When I was taking a Statistical Class in school long ago, there was a book...about the law of averages. It was a horror story, about what would happen to the world if the law of averages would be broken. And the world pretty much runs on the law of averages...it is in everything we do.
The Lockdown broke the law of averages. What it's outcome will be is absolutely uncertain except to say that the speed of change has accelerated to unbelievable levels.
Just the other day, Gov Cuomo of New York told reporters not to trust the numbers. Wise advice.
I guess I think back to other times and places where a catastrophe has broken systems down. Wars. Famine. Genocide. Financial Crisis. Natural Disaster. Sometimes those went on for a good long time in a specific place, sometimes across the entire planet.
In history so far we've always been able to put things back together, and sometimes quite quickly after a big problem.
If these lockdowns are short enough to just get cases low, begin opening and keep Ro manageable, I think things will gradually get better in a positive feedback loop. The credit system hasn't broken yet, markets are still functioning, if limping, and people in areas with measures in place so far seem able to get enough food, medicine and medical help to get through this first bit.
I'm in the optimistic camp. I think the economy will recover this year and if a second wave can be avoided in the fall, even unemployment will bounce back soon to under 10%. Some businesses will fail, but others will start. Some big businesses (Amazon) will get bigger. Some very rich will get richer. I do hope though that the most vulnerable people on the lowest end of the employment ladder will be able to make ends meet and get jobs. My worry is for those people.
It is a question of perspective.
My mother-in-law, if she was still alive, would have slapped you for suggesting that we were able to put things back together quickly...with respect to the great depression or the inflation of the 70s. Reuse, repair or do without, and sometime in the 70s she added recycle. A mindset that is totally alien to almost everyone alive today in the US.
Nothing wrong with being an optimist.
< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/10/2020 3:59:34 PM >