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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:49:32 PM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
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No need to apologize, CR, please.
It's over a decade now that I follow your adventures and while we would probably disagree on a lot of political issues I am very fine with this, as I have never been in the States and therefore a bit reluctant to spread advise over the pond. :-)
In this context I might add that any supposed 'hate' against the American people is comically exaggerated from our side, not to say borderline propaganda with an obvious aim to divide.

But you get what you pay for, as we are both publishers we know that good, as objective as possible journalism can't be made for free, so it isn't astonishing at all to realize how much free stuff in the Internet is a best clickbait or sometimes driven by a hidden agenda.

Haha, your idea to divide Germany into a system of federal states was great, allthough some folks may argue we had been grow a little bit to fat in the last time :-)

Good luck to everyone,
especially best wishes for everyone with kids - you have my support in this times.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7261
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:50:16 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 825
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
RJ - I suspect you are joking about the taxes.....

That said. When I lived in the UK my tax return was about 11 pages.....back here it is about an inch and a half of paper.

I was volunteering with the AARP tax prep program before this hit. Lot's of people living on the edge (financially). It always felt good when a person had a decent pension. Really made me smile when a young guy (under 25) came in with docs where he had 401k deductions....someone planning.

So - as an ad - free tax prep from the AARP if you make less than $300k per year.....

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7262
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:55:01 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Media Outlets Mislead Readers about COVID-19 Data
By A. G. Hamilton
May 7, 2020

quote:

The public overwhelmingly relies on the press to provide them with accurate information and proper context. When it comes to COVID-19, many press outlets are consistently failing to do that. In fact, the reporting on data related to the epidemic has increasingly led to conclusions that aren’t accurate and an audience that is misinformed.

The perfect example was an article from The Hill that told readers Texas was seeing “thousands of new coronavirus cases days after state’s stay-at-home order lifted.” Seems rather obvious that The Hill started with a view that moving into a re-opening phase is a mistake and things are getting worse, and then looked for a way to support that conclusion. This claim managed to mislead readers in two key ways:

(1) Given the incubation period and a lag in testing, new cases that are identified on a certain day are unlikely to have any relationship to policies implemented days earlier.

(2) “New cases” is a very misleading metric because it does not account for increases in testing. The rate of positive tests in Texas has declined significantly.

Mainstream outlets have attempted to tie new cases and deaths to recent re-opening actions in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, despite it being clear that any spike in cases or deaths would not be apparent for weeks after such policy changes. Such actions could lead to a spike in new cases, but trying to tie them to those seen right now is clearly incorrect.


https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-media-outlets-mislead-readers-about-covid-19-data/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=third


Perhaps it's time to turn to something completely different... Fairness Doctrine

_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7263
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:55:23 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19812
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

I'm in an addiction program. We still meet via Zoom and audio.


The programs around here, which usually met at churches, do this too, but there is of course reduced attendance and I feel it can't be as effective over the computer as in person.

Plus now I suspect it is hard to drop into a different group easily.


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7264
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:02:30 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. had early plan to protect nursing homes from the coronavirus, but never fully implemented it

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2020/05/pennsylvania-coronavirus-nursing-homes-plan-quick-strike-teams/


To put it very politely, that effing response sux the big one. I think that there needs to be a management shake up in Pennsylvania.



lol - let's not just leave it at Pennsylvania. Most of the world leadership could use a good shake.

_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7265
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:03:17 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

RJ - I suspect you are joking about the taxes.....

That said. When I lived in the UK my tax return was about 11 pages.....back here it is about an inch and a half of paper.

I was volunteering with the AARP tax prep program before this hit. Lot's of people living on the edge (financially). It always felt good when a person had a decent pension. Really made me smile when a young guy (under 25) came in with docs where he had 401k deductions....someone planning.

So - as an ad - free tax prep from the AARP if you make less than $300k per year.....


Maybe I should have stated that I don't bother to pay nor even file income taxes.

I do pay any sales tax, excise tax, and all of the taxes that the respective business pay. That is because all taxes on businesses are paid by the consumers.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7266
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:10:21 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The 1957 flu that killed one million people

In 1957 a new strain of avian flu emerged in East Asia and quickly spread around the world, killing at least one million people.

Sumi Krishna was nine years old when she caught the virus in India.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/stories-52582124/the-1957-flu-that-killed-one-million-people


in 1957 you didn't have the same level of communication you have today, where local news anywhere in the world can get world-wide attention. 1957 was just a few years before my time but back then, news outlets were much more responsible.

_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7267
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:13:24 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19812
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
State Ready To Pay Assisted Living Facilities To Take Coronavirus Patients

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/06/state-will-pay-assisted-living-coronavirus/

California is the state.

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7268
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:17:00 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Yes, yes! Less emphysema deaths AND we are meeting our Paris Accord goals! Why, it's a Godsend I tell you!


Oh, Sweet, Sweet Gaia, we beseech you. Please use your powers to deliver us from our illegitimate, anti-scientific leaders who were elected by Russian hacking. You know what to do. And bring us love, harmony and economic justice by spreading the wealth around and putting all oil companies and airlines out of business (but leave us our G-5's for the Davos Summit). Amen!


Amen!

_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7269
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:20:49 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19812
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Funny, in a sad kind of way.

California pol tweets ‘F–k Elon Musk’ after announcement to move Tesla

https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/california-pol-tweets-f-k-elon-musk-amid-plans-to-move-tesla/

Tesla has 7,000 workers in China with no deaths, at least according to WSJ. Shortage components are believed to be behind a shutdown there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/tesla-abruptly-suspends-car-production-at-chinese-factory

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/10/2020 3:24:39 PM >

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7270
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:22:28 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

State Ready To Pay Assisted Living Facilities To Take Coronavirus Patients

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/06/state-will-pay-assisted-living-coronavirus/

California is the state.


Combine that with this:

Elder Advocates: Newsom Close To Giving Health Care Providers Legal Immunity During Pandemic

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/apr/29/advocates-newsom-close-granting-immunity-nursing-h/

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7271
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:26:37 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Germany and Denmark remain considerably beneath the 1.0 threshold (.79 and .86, respectively). Denmark began easing on April 15. German around April 26.


Wish that would be still the case...
But no, it's ~ 1.1 here in Germany again.
Not sure if the relaxing alone was responsible - imho it's unfortunately the behaviour of this very special species of apes: as soon as the first restrictions were lifted, not everyone but too many idiots switched back in their old behaviour.

A friend is reopening his restaurant under chaotic regulations and give it at maximum two to three months until the next forced lockdown (which will end his business for ever). Only reservations, guests had to arrive in time and no more then 10 min late, had to registrate personallity including the exact chair and are forced to leave after 1 1/2 hour. Exactly like in the old GDR...

It's the people. If only once in while a volunteer would die in the middle of zhe street to confrontate the plebs with potentiel consequences.


I thought the whole intent of the lockdown was to prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed. It was never the intent to eliminate to stop COVID-19 - nearly slow it down so we have an opportunity to deal with it using our current resources. Near as I can tell, unless they come up with a vaccine, we are kinda stuck with the "Boomer Disease."


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 7272
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:27:19 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Funny, in a sad kind of way.

California pol tweets ‘F–k Elon Musk’ after announcement to move Tesla

https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/california-pol-tweets-f-k-elon-musk-amid-plans-to-move-tesla/

Tesla has 7,000 workers in China with no deaths, at least according to WSJ. Shortage components are believed to be behind a shutdown there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/tesla-abruptly-suspends-car-production-at-chinese-factory




I am sure that Texas and Nevada are happy about this twit - I mean tweet!

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7273
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:27:33 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19812
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.


Doubtful.

He is caught between a rock and a hard place and there is no easy solutions.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7274
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:31:13 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

Folks - please tone it down. We all share an interest in the Pacific War, and while we obviously have different political views, we are better than getting into name calling and attacks. According to BBC it is a nice day in London (and hopefully the rest of the UK). It has stopped snowing here in NY. Let's get our walking canes out and go outside, away from computers and TVs......


Oh come on fcooke! It's a bar fight. I'm a gonna wade in and swing my cane about and maybe whack a few folks upside the head. This whole shindig is makin' me feel young again and full of piss-and-vinegar! Heck - afterwards I might even splurge and side up to the bar and get me a Shirley Temple!

(Totally tongue-in-cheek)


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7275
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:31:58 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.


Doubtful.

He is caught between a rock and a hard place and there is no easy solutions.


I am sure that there are building that could be adapted instead of putting people into existing facilities. Think of a motel or hotel, how much business does it currently have? Or if has recently closed and is not in need of major repairs? those would be better places to open for the Covid-19 patients.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7276
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:35:00 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 825
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

I'm in an addiction program. We still meet via Zoom and audio.


The programs around here, which usually met at churches, do this too, but there is of course reduced attendance and I feel it can't be as effective over the computer as in person.

Plus now I suspect it is hard to drop into a different group easily.

Yep - the in person part is important (IMO). I am not a particularly high risk category person, and video seems to work better than audio in my experience. But the 'at risk' in the mental health community is clearly stressing based on what I have heard/seen firsthand.


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7277
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:37:13 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 825
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
DW - you made me chuckle - thank you

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7278
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:37:30 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6252
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

Folks - please tone it down. We all share an interest in the Pacific War, and while we obviously have different political views, we are better than getting into name calling and attacks. According to BBC it is a nice day in London (and hopefully the rest of the UK). It has stopped snowing here in NY. Let's get our walking canes out and go outside, away from computers and TVs......


Oh come on fcooke! It's a bar fight. I'm a gonna wade in and swing my cane about and maybe whack a few folks upside the head. This whole shindig is makin' me feel young again and full of piss-and-vinegar! Heck - afterwards I might even splurge and side up to the bar and get me a Shirley Temple!

(Totally tongue-in-cheek)



Anyone who orders a Shirley Temple should get an automatic 3 month ban from the forum for being underage to post.

Alfred

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7279
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:42:15 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2143
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


I thought the whole intent of the lockdown was to prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed. It was never the intent to eliminate to stop COVID-19 - nearly slow it down so we have an opportunity to deal with it using our current resources. Near as I can tell, unless they come up with a vaccine, we are kinda stuck with the "Boomer Disease."


Exactly. And in the USA, we did - see attached chart. That is the very definition of a "flattened curve", and it's been that way since early April. People who say we need this to "taper off" are missing the point. Absent a cure, the only path forward is to slowly build Herd Immunity, and to do so with a steady load of new cases, which is how you avoid overwhelming the medical system.

Edit: Chart is from Worldometers




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 5/10/2020 3:46:55 PM >


_____________________________


(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7280
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:43:25 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15472
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.


Doubtful.

He is caught between a rock and a hard place and there is no easy solutions.


I am sure that there are building that could be adapted instead of putting people into existing facilities. Think of a motel or hotel, how much business does it currently have? Or if has recently closed and is not in need of major repairs? those would be better places to open for the Covid-19 patients.

Not so easy to repurpose. Start with carpet being very bad for sterility. Add the lack of separate ventilation for each room. Oxygen? There aren't enough O2 bottles to equip each room and I am not sure ventilators can use them anyway. Power for all the medical devices - heart monitors, ventilators, etc. Enough room around the bed for equipment and a team of medics?

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7281
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:44:32 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 862
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

Folks - please tone it down. We all share an interest in the Pacific War, and while we obviously have different political views, we are better than getting into name calling and attacks. According to BBC it is a nice day in London (and hopefully the rest of the UK). It has stopped snowing here in NY. Let's get our walking canes out and go outside, away from computers and TVs......


Oh come on fcooke! It's a bar fight. I'm a gonna wade in and swing my cane about and maybe whack a few folks upside the head. This whole shindig is makin' me feel young again and full of piss-and-vinegar! Heck - afterwards I might even splurge and side up to the bar and get me a Shirley Temple!

(Totally tongue-in-cheek)



Anyone who orders a Shirley Temple should get an automatic 3 month ban from the forum for being underage to post.

Alfred



Nah - I'm in a 12-step program so a Shirley is about the best I can do. But I appreciate your sentiment. There was a time, many-many moons ago, when I thought a "real man" could drink like a fish and anyone lesser was a panty-waist - lol.

Now - it is what it is.





_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 7282
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:55:37 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 825
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
My fish still drink like fish.....and a good source of 'supply' should it get to that

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7283
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 3:58:43 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 19812
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Got it. Sorry if I misunderstood your thinking..


I'm not sure what you mean.




The written word is very hard to communicate effectively with.

There obviously has been a lot of work done on modeling diseases and their impact on healthcare. However, Ferguson himself says he never thought a lockdown would be initiated in today's world. It was outside of his comprehension.

There was, to my mind, never an analysis of what the effects of a lockdown could be in the rush to prevent a medical collapse the goal was deemed so important as to justify almost any decision. Nothing ever operates in a vacuum, and the law of unintended consequences always rule while another law was broken.

When I was taking a Statistical Class in school long ago, there was a book...about the law of averages. It was a horror story, about what would happen to the world if the law of averages would be broken. And the world pretty much runs on the law of averages...it is in everything we do.

The Lockdown broke the law of averages. What it's outcome will be is absolutely uncertain except to say that the speed of change has accelerated to unbelievable levels.

Just the other day, Gov Cuomo of New York told reporters not to trust the numbers. Wise advice.



I guess I think back to other times and places where a catastrophe has broken systems down. Wars. Famine. Genocide. Financial Crisis. Natural Disaster. Sometimes those went on for a good long time in a specific place, sometimes across the entire planet.

In history so far we've always been able to put things back together, and sometimes quite quickly after a big problem.

If these lockdowns are short enough to just get cases low, begin opening and keep Ro manageable, I think things will gradually get better in a positive feedback loop. The credit system hasn't broken yet, markets are still functioning, if limping, and people in areas with measures in place so far seem able to get enough food, medicine and medical help to get through this first bit.

I'm in the optimistic camp. I think the economy will recover this year and if a second wave can be avoided in the fall, even unemployment will bounce back soon to under 10%. Some businesses will fail, but others will start. Some big businesses (Amazon) will get bigger. Some very rich will get richer. I do hope though that the most vulnerable people on the lowest end of the employment ladder will be able to make ends meet and get jobs. My worry is for those people.


It is a question of perspective.

My mother-in-law, if she was still alive, would have slapped you for suggesting that we were able to put things back together quickly...with respect to the great depression or the inflation of the 70s. Reuse, repair or do without, and sometime in the 70s she added recycle. A mindset that is totally alien to almost everyone alive today in the US.

Nothing wrong with being an optimist.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/10/2020 3:59:34 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7284
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 4:13:59 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6252
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline
Too many economic illiterate people posting in this thread.

Income will not quickly recover fully and that will directly feed into suppressing aggregate demand.

1.  Some parts of the economy will witnessed an explosion in inventory numbers.  Two major ones are oil and aircraft.

The reason why oil futures recently went into negative te4rritory was not primarily due to production but a lack of oil storage facilities.  The substantial downturn in oil demand combined with the continued production means that oil inventories are high.  People forget that the northern summer season witnesses a drop in oil demand so they're aren't coming down soon.  Even the total collapse of the North American fracking industry won't bring supply into equilibrium with demand.

There will be airline collapses, it is just a matter of time.  Even without them, there is an absolute glut of parked aircraft.  It costs a lot of money every single day to have a parked aircraft.  This will result in two bad outcomes.  It will see the market for new aircraft destroyed as everyone will be trying to off load their parked aircraft.  Very bad news for Boeing and Airbus and all their component supplies.  The employment knock on effect will be huge.  Nor will the aircraft leasing companies come through unscathed.

2.  The airline downturn will not just be the result of the collapse of international air travel for the foreseeable future, it directly disrupts the supply chain.  It isn't just international tourists who are aren't going anywhere and that has very significant employment and income repercussions on many economies, international air freight is largely kaput too.  That has serious repercussions on trade and production which of course reduces international income.

3.  Even were the lockdowns totally removed today, most companies are going to experience a minimum of 2 quarters ( the past quarter and the current quarter) of depressed earnings.  My money is that  earnings will not recover before Q4 in 2021.  At some stage, the depressed earnings will result in reduced dividends.  that will have repercussions on 401 schemes and shareholder incomes.

4.  Most business fixed costs are still incurred during the lockdown.  Lost business income is just that, lost.  Removal of lockdowns will, at the absolute best if one is an optimist, see demand recover to former levels.  It wont exceed past levels which leaves a significant period with lost demand.  Those inventories will take some time to reduce, and then by reducing forward orders to producers.  Again diminishing future income levels.

Government budgets, ahh I won't even touch them now but there is a world of future pain being stored up.

Alfred 

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 7285
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 4:14:52 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

State Ready To Pay Assisted Living Facilities To Take Coronavirus Patients

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/06/state-will-pay-assisted-living-coronavirus/

California is the state.


This looks ridiculous. So far it has seemed CA was doing well and making solid decisions. There have to be other ways to care for these patients than to put other very vulnerable people in danger. Isn't isloation the idea.

How about paying that money to a small hotel in each area and booking out all of the rooms, hiring a few attendants from laid off medical professionals, and putting reasonable numbers thee until they again test negative? Is it really so hard to find another way to take care of these people?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7286
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 4:15:45 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.


Doubtful.

He is caught between a rock and a hard place and there is no easy solutions.


I am sure that there are building that could be adapted instead of putting people into existing facilities. Think of a motel or hotel, how much business does it currently have? Or if has recently closed and is not in need of major repairs? those would be better places to open for the Covid-19 patients.

Not so easy to repurpose. Start with carpet being very bad for sterility. Add the lack of separate ventilation for each room. Oxygen? There aren't enough O2 bottles to equip each room and I am not sure ventilators can use them anyway. Power for all the medical devices - heart monitors, ventilators, etc. Enough room around the bed for equipment and a team of medics?


I have been in an assisted living facility that used to be a motel. No need for O2 bottles unless the people need them. The other equipment that you state are for a hospital, not an assisted living facility. Maybe not even a nursing home. I have been in one of those as well.

Remember, these facilities would be for those recovering who are mildly affected.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 5/10/2020 4:25:20 PM >


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 7287
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 4:22:05 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Too many economic illiterate people posting in this thread.

Income will not quickly recover fully and that will directly feed into suppressing aggregate demand.

1.  Some parts of the economy will witnessed an explosion in inventory numbers.  Two major ones are oil and aircraft.

The reason why oil futures recently went into negative te4rritory was not primarily due to production but a lack of oil storage facilities.  The substantial downturn in oil demand combined with the continued production means that oil inventories are high.  People forget that the northern summer season witnesses a drop in oil demand so they're aren't coming down soon.  Even the total collapse of the North American fracking industry won't bring supply into equilibrium with demand.

There will be airline collapses, it is just a matter of time.  Even without them, there is an absolute glut of parked aircraft.  It costs a lot of money every single day to have a parked aircraft.  This will result in two bad outcomes.  It will see the market for new aircraft destroyed as everyone will be trying to off load their parked aircraft.  Very bad news for Boeing and Airbus and all their component supplies.  The employment knock on effect will be huge.  Nor will the aircraft leasing companies come through unscathed.

2.  The airline downturn will not just be the result of the collapse of international air travel for the foreseeable future, it directly disrupts the supply chain.  It isn't just international tourists who are aren't going anywhere and that has very significant employment and income repercussions on many economies, international air freight is largely kaput too.  That has serious repercussions on trade and production which of course reduces international income.

3.  Even were the lockdowns totally removed today, most companies are going to experience a minimum of 2 quarters ( the past quarter and the current quarter) of depressed earnings.  My money is that  earnings will not recover before Q4 in 2021.  At some stage, the depressed earnings will result in reduced dividends.  that will have repercussions on 401 schemes and shareholder incomes.

4.  Most business fixed costs are still incurred during the lockdown.  Lost business income is just that, lost.  Removal of lockdowns will, at the absolute best if one is an optimist, see demand recover to former levels.  It wont exceed past levels which leaves a significant period with lost demand.  Those inventories will take some time to reduce, and then by reducing forward orders to producers.  Again diminishing future income levels.

Government budgets, ahh I won't even touch them now but there is a world of future pain being stored up.

Alfred 


+1

This is not to mention the businesses are are based on seasonal revenues such as fishing resorts, restaurants and hotels/motels in the tourist towns, plus all of the other associated businesses there.

Future pain in the budgets, think of not increases taxes but reducing spending to reduce the money supply to lessen inflation.

Think of the farmers with their fruits and vegetables that need to be taken care of and harvested. If that is not done, then there will be a shortage of those. Grains should not be a problem since that is not as intensive, manpower wise.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 7288
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 4:24:30 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

State Ready To Pay Assisted Living Facilities To Take Coronavirus Patients

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/06/state-will-pay-assisted-living-coronavirus/

California is the state.


This looks ridiculous. So far it has seemed CA was doing well and making solid decisions. There have to be other ways to care for these patients than to put other very vulnerable people in danger. Isn't isloation the idea.

How about paying that money to a small hotel in each area and booking out all of the rooms, hiring a few attendants from laid off medical professionals, and putting reasonable numbers thee until they again test negative? Is it really so hard to find another way to take care of these people?


I agree. If you see my post, you will notice that.

All that you need is an RN/LPN on duty passing medications and Certified Nursing assistants to help. Or even just a home healthcare aide with a nurse on call.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7289
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 4:35:18 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


It is a question of perspective.

My mother-in-law, if she was still alive, would have slapped you for suggesting that we were able to put things back together quickly...with respect to the great depression or the inflation of the 70s. Reuse, repair or do without, and sometime in the 70s she added recycle. A mindset that is totally alien to almost everyone alive today in the US.

Nothing wrong with being an optimist.



I lived with my grandmother from age 5 to 12 after my parents split. She was born in 1912 and went through the depression in her prime years of marriage and having kids. When I lived with her nearly half a century later she was still hoarding canned foods, clipping coupons, saying nearly everything she could use, sewing her own clothes and mending mine. She was the most positive person I have ever been around, and she knew how to have some fun.

So this is not alien to me, unfortunately. I still struggle not to "collect" too many interesting things I might use later, or scraps I could make into something else. I've just been remaking my garden shed and I took out a greenhouse. I sat on the glass for a long time, not knowing how I'd use it. I ended up raising the roof to put a clear-story in and learned to put glass, rout window frames and install them up high to give more light into the two rooms.

Just this week I cut down some of the excess to be recycled, but still kept eight sheets in case I need them. Silly, but it's my grandma in me.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7290
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