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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 10:35:34 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22736
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
Yes, yes! Less emphysema deaths AND we are meeting our Paris Accord goals! Why, it's a Godsend I tell you!


Oh, Sweet, Sweet Gaia, we beseech you. Please use your powers to deliver us from our illegitimate, anti-scientific leaders who were elected by Russian hacking. You know what to do. And bring us love, harmony and economic justice by spreading the wealth around and putting all oil companies and airlines out of business (but leave us our G-5's for the Davos Summit). Amen!

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7231
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 10:47:08 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8464
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Actually, it is the state's job. The state's and the local government's job is to protect its citizens from illness, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and many other dangers.

As far as bleach in the blood, I am sure that I have had that

Too bad for me. I can't take bleach for Covid because I'm already taking Windex for Windmill cancer




_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7232
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 10:49:55 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8464
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Media Outlets Mislead Readers about COVID-19 Data
By A. G. Hamilton
May 7, 2020

quote:

The public overwhelmingly relies on the press to provide them with accurate information and proper context. When it comes to COVID-19, many press outlets are consistently failing to do that. In fact, the reporting on data related to the epidemic has increasingly led to conclusions that aren’t accurate and an audience that is misinformed.

The perfect example was an article from The Hill that told readers Texas was seeing “thousands of new coronavirus cases days after state’s stay-at-home order lifted.” Seems rather obvious that The Hill started with a view that moving into a re-opening phase is a mistake and things are getting worse, and then looked for a way to support that conclusion. This claim managed to mislead readers in two key ways:

(1) Given the incubation period and a lag in testing, new cases that are identified on a certain day are unlikely to have any relationship to policies implemented days earlier.

(2) “New cases” is a very misleading metric because it does not account for increases in testing. The rate of positive tests in Texas has declined significantly.

Mainstream outlets have attempted to tie new cases and deaths to recent re-opening actions in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, despite it being clear that any spike in cases or deaths would not be apparent for weeks after such policy changes. Such actions could lead to a spike in new cases, but trying to tie them to those seen right now is clearly incorrect.


https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-media-outlets-mislead-readers-about-covid-19-data/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=third


I don't have time or energy to de-bunk every false or misleading claim from the very biased source you've been quoting from lately. This obviously fits the narrative you'd like to believe and present. It's too bad it's not grounded in objective information and its practises are known to be suspect.

The assertion here of a lagging indicator is correct, of course, but the general assertion that ALL sources of "mainstream" journalism are mis-representing the situation and misleading readers/viewers into thinking that measures have not been effective is blatantly false and misleading itself.

This is a very good instance of using good information to persuade readers of a false or misleading premiss with only partial evidence (citing one article from the Hill, a small source itself, and one data chart from Axios, whatever that is, with a mention but no evidence from the NY Times).






You don't like the message so you slur the messenger and the source of the message. How adult of you.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7233
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 11:02:11 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I didn't have time to check John Dillworth's source yesterday, due to being out most of the day. He noted, just as I was leaving that "now three states" had gone over the Ro 1.0 level and added "tick, tock,"

Checking today, I see two states are over that threshold - Iowa and Indiana (barely) with Mississippi at exactly 1. I don't know if Iowa and Indiana have done anything to ease countermeasures, but certainly the bulk of the states that have done so to much media attention remain below Ro 1, including Tennessee, Texas, Florida, etc.

Since John first posted that about four days ago, Georgia has dropped from 0.94 to 0.91. The state is now 16 days into gradually easing countermeasures.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7234
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 11:06:42 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Germany and Denmark remain considerably beneath the 1.0 threshold (.79 and .86, respectively). Denmark began easing on April 15. German around April 26.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7235
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 11:07:36 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Looking at the CoVid19 numbers is akin to being a Roman General looking at Hannibal's campfires at night and basing a decision on that alone.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 5/10/2020 11:09:08 AM >


_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7236
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 11:24:31 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2937
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Apologies to Warspite1, and any other nonsocialst bent Europeans, for unintentionally lumping you in with Obvert and mindmessing.

"All of you Eurosocialists" is not a statement meant to be applied in a blanket manner to all Europeans, just all European socialists.

They know who they are.

I believe it was mm who first threw out a self imposed slur of ALL Europeans by referring to you as Eurotrash.

I'm rapidly reaching the limit of my tolerance for Obvert's constant "holier than thou" claims that those who present opposing viewpoints are dong so purely out of emotion, when no one in this thread has evidenced MORE emotion than he.

You seriously need to come down from your self proclaimed 'higher ground".

Your posts are purely driven by the emotion of paranoia. It is evident in EVERYTHING you post.

We all recognize how scared to death you are of returning to work when you see every child as a little germ factory.




1. The Eurotrash comment was a self-imposed slur, made after I had to ask an American to repost the text on a news website. A news website I was unable to access, thanks to more stringent European laws around data protection.

2. For you to state that obvert's posts are driven by emotion has to be the best laugh I've gotten from this fairly morbid thread. Given the EXTENSIVE use of CAPITALISATION in your POSTS, along with the RANTING nature of them, I am seriously concerned for your blood pressure.


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

You don't like the message so you slur the messenger and the source of the message. How adult of you.


Why am I not surprised that the irony of this is completely lost on you?


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Damn am I glad I took a few steps back for a while.

Watching you all take pot shots at each other is actually rather entertaining.

Well, time to wade back in.

A quick thrust at all you Eurosocialists damning the US for not implementing nation wide orders.....

So ALL of the European continent implemented the same imperial edict orders and followed them?

Many of our states are three times the size of many of your nations...........yet is is OK for your individual nations to go their own ways....but not for our states?

My what hypocrites you all are.
warspite1

If he read something (or even thought he read something – the facts of the matter weren’t that important to him) that he didn’t like and was written by a European, Osterhaut/Symon/JWE used to often refer to them as EuroNazis .

Well I guess Eurosocialists is a little less harsh (depending on one’s politics ), but why the ‘Eurosocialists’ appendage in any case? Do you have it on some clear authority that lockdown/limited lockdown/no lockdown is uniformly split along party lines? Splits and factions within various governing parties would suggest otherwise…..

And why the need for a ‘quick thrust at Euro (socialist)’ peans at all given that what you are upset about has been stated by Americans too? Indeed one of the most vociferous on this subject I believe is an American. If you want to take exception to, and argue with, individuals then fine, but to try and label a set of people in such a way doesn’t help. Why do so many of these arguments come down to “my country is better than your country?” What are we 10-years old?

And I won’t ask why would there be an ‘imperial order’ for ‘ALL’ of the European continent (why, in your view, is it right the United States are treated as the United States but a Briton or a German or a Bulgarian or a Norwegian have to be treated as Europeans?). I assume you were just angry and didn’t mean to write something that actually makes no sense and you probably know the answer to.

A genuine question though:

Who (whether American, European or Eurosocialist (whatever that is)) has actually stated on here that the US states acting singularly is wrong, but German Lander (for example) doing the same thing is right? I assume there must be a lot, at least in the European bracket, because you’ve said “my what hypocrites you all are”.



If Hans actually bothered to educate himself on the subject rather than spout his usual nonsense, he'd have known that there's not even a united approach within countries, never mind across Europe.

I have to say, his comments were bearable when it was confined to perceived bias within the AE and not on matters of any importance.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 7237
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 11:39:55 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Media Outlets Mislead Readers about COVID-19 Data
By A. G. Hamilton
May 7, 2020

quote:

The public overwhelmingly relies on the press to provide them with accurate information and proper context. When it comes to COVID-19, many press outlets are consistently failing to do that. In fact, the reporting on data related to the epidemic has increasingly led to conclusions that aren’t accurate and an audience that is misinformed.

The perfect example was an article from The Hill that told readers Texas was seeing “thousands of new coronavirus cases days after state’s stay-at-home order lifted.” Seems rather obvious that The Hill started with a view that moving into a re-opening phase is a mistake and things are getting worse, and then looked for a way to support that conclusion. This claim managed to mislead readers in two key ways:

(1) Given the incubation period and a lag in testing, new cases that are identified on a certain day are unlikely to have any relationship to policies implemented days earlier.

(2) “New cases” is a very misleading metric because it does not account for increases in testing. The rate of positive tests in Texas has declined significantly.

Mainstream outlets have attempted to tie new cases and deaths to recent re-opening actions in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, despite it being clear that any spike in cases or deaths would not be apparent for weeks after such policy changes. Such actions could lead to a spike in new cases, but trying to tie them to those seen right now is clearly incorrect.


https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-media-outlets-mislead-readers-about-covid-19-data/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=third


I don't have time or energy to de-bunk every false or misleading claim from the very biased source you've been quoting from lately. This obviously fits the narrative you'd like to believe and present. It's too bad it's not grounded in objective information and its practises are known to be suspect.

The assertion here of a lagging indicator is correct, of course, but the general assertion that ALL sources of "mainstream" journalism are mis-representing the situation and misleading readers/viewers into thinking that measures have not been effective is blatantly false and misleading itself.

This is a very good instance of using good information to persuade readers of a false or misleading premiss with only partial evidence (citing one article from the Hill, a small source itself, and one data chart from Axios, whatever that is, with a mention but no evidence from the NY Times).






You don't like the message so you slur the messenger and the source of the message. How adult of you.


This is what you don’t seem to get. I’m looking at information trying to find reliable sources. I tend to check all of them. I checked this one and reported what I found. That isn’t a slur. It’s research.


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7238
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 12:04:50 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 868
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
Folks - please tone it down. We all share an interest in the Pacific War, and while we obviously have different political views, we are better than getting into name calling and attacks. According to BBC it is a nice day in London (and hopefully the rest of the UK). It has stopped snowing here in NY. Let's get our walking canes out and go outside, away from computers and TVs......

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7239
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 12:16:45 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Firstly, thanks for the reasoned response.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I, for one, would be leery of giving that kind of power to any President of the US.



All we're talking about is the information that was actually given out as a recommendation in mid March. The federal guidelines for social distancing on March 16.

If that was done one or two weeks earlier, it saves lives.

quote:


In the US, there were 8 states that didn't issue mandatory stay at home orders. None of those States were in risk of their hospitals being overrun which was the primary, original goal of the lockdown. There always exist more than one way to skin a cat.



Because of the Federal guidelines many did so anyway, many businesses closed, and many people distanced as in other places. That helps. That is why the Federal level guidelines were important. This also doesn't mean this was he reason those states didn't (yet) have a severe outbreak. The US is large, some states are definitely more rural and people are naturally less likely to have come in close contact with many others regularly.

quote:


There were many other states that had lockdowns of differing severity. In each individual state you see a wide disparity among local counties and their state govts. Some counties are actually in open rebellion. Most state Govnr's don't have the legal authority.



More reasons why Federal level guidelines are important. Again, the US is large, diverse, strange and wonderful. People do sometimes need to reign in their freedoms for the good of all though. It's happened before and didn't result in a loss of those freedoms.

quote:



The argument that the lockdown doesn't carry it's own deathtoll has somehow been excluded.



Many who are arguing against lockdowns use this as an argument, but also use mortality figures from a period when the social distancing and lockdowns were in place. If left to run both the Covid mortality goes up and the excess deaths from other conditions go up if hospitals are overwhelmed.

quote:



The decision to have a centralized mandate, would carry with it an important factor. Down the road, the economic costs of decision making during the time of the Pandemic would be distributed equally. For example, say my company has production in China that I now desire to bring back to the States. Would I pick New York, with it high tax, high cost, likely future shutdown environment, or someplace like South Dakota or Arkansas. I would only pick New York if the logistics savings or customer engagement was very concentrated there or the state plied me with tons of tax dollars/offsets or the Govt guaranteed I was immune from any future lockdown.

But if Arkansas was forced to shutdown, well then, that removes a very big decision making input.


If social distancing guidelines came a week or two earlier it would not change anything about this issue.

quote:


Cap said earlier that he fears a 4 year or so economic turnaround. I think we are more like at 10 years right now, based on the 2008 economic downturn or even longer. Just to give an idea of the hideous changes that are upon us, Gov Cuomo of New York is openly questioning having brick and mortar schools. Colleges are going to be especially hard hit.

Not only are we living in the greatest medical experiment of all time, we are going to see a huge economic migration across the world. It took almost 3 generations for economic interdependencies to return to their pre WW1 pre Spanish flu levels.

May you live in interesting times.




I think it'll all recover much more quickly. Travel will be tough, but I have a friend at a high level in that industry, and even he thinks there will be some positive upturns through the summer domestically and gradually through next year.

The US has sent a lot of people out of jobs, but those jobs will come back. Opening is happening, for better or worse, right now. Businesses will need people to resume.

The US is the largest economy in the world in spite of all of this. It will adapt. There are a lot of people out there who still want to make a lot of money. I fear for the poor, not the economy, in the long term.


I agree with almost everything you say here, with the exception of the economy. The problem is you misconstrue what I say.

I am not arguing against a lockdown.

Two areas I do disagree with you:

I have not seen pro lockdown proponents address the effects of a lockdown in increased deaths let alone in other areas.

I have a lifetime of experience in small business. I literally know hundreds of business owners across all sectors. To say the economy will snap back except for maybe travel is naive. but well intended.



< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/10/2020 12:20:31 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7240
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 12:36:49 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are ****ty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.


My family is from central Missouri, and there is a Tyson plant there. It is considered a tough place to work that pays above average. A good starter job. I have heard people complain that it is hard work. Of course it depends what you do. A meat cutter is paid around $15 hour, which is an excellent wage in mid Missouri.

There is a substantial number of minorities that work at the plant. What percentage, I have no idea.

(in reply to pontiouspilot)
Post #: 7241
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 12:48:41 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Although records are not currently available for all areas, a study in California indicated a serious reduction in road accidents and fatalities during the lockdowns.

Since road accidents account for a large number of deaths per year virtually everywhere, this may be leading to fewer fatalities everywhere there is a lockdown.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/490601-amid-coronavirus-lockdowns-traffic-accidents-in
Prior to the stay-at-home orders, researchers estimate that there were approximately 1,000 collision incidents and 400 injury and fatal accidents per day on highways across California, per data from the university’s real-time California Highway Incident Processing System (CHIPS).

With stay-at-home orders now in place, researchers at UCD now see approximately 500 collisions and 200 injuries or fatal incidents.


Since there are approximately 1.25 million road deaths worldwide every year, this could have significantly more impact than the rise in suicides, which account for almost 800k deaths worldwide every year (figures from WHO records.

This year suicides are tracking just about average worldwide, with around 380k now and ~800k expected for the year. Suicides also peak in the spring and early summer and drop off in late summer and through the winter.




An interesting aside here is motorcycle drivers. Many states enforced a mandatory helmet law while riding a motorcycle. Unfortunately for some members of society, with the newly enforced safety law the supply of organs for organ transplants dropped.

The motorcycle lobby that wanted to ride free and unencumbered so to speak has been successful in removing some of those state laws. They did in Pennsylvania. Perhaps remove is too strong a word, they altered the law and set up a method where individuals could qualify to ride without helmets.

Of course all of this causes discussion, studies, and debate. Here is one study on the effect of helmet laws on the supply of organ donors.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/661256?seq=1


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/10/2020 12:50:50 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7242
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 1:15:28 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I agree with almost everything you say here, with the exception of the economy. The problem is you misconstrue what I say.

I am not arguing against a lockdown.



Got it. Sorry if I misunderstood your thinking..

quote:


Two areas I do disagree with you:

I have not seen pro-lockdown proponents address the effects of a lockdown in increased deaths let alone in other areas.



I'm not sure what you mean. In the interview with Neil Ferguson he expressed clearly that without a lockdown after cases were already high in a population excess deaths due to medical overload would be higher both for Covid patients and for others with medical needs, who would not have access to hospital services.

If you mean lockdowns causing excess deaths in current lockdowns, we have to remember that the number of Covid deaths are caused by social distancing being in place (and so lower than they would have been), to whatever degree it is in each area, and that deaths to other causes may rise in some areas and fall in others, (as I've posted about pollution and road fatalities).

I've seen a number of studies showing the economic impact on mental health will not be good, but countries are starting to also put more in place to protect those people. We'll see.

quote:



I have a lifetime of experience in small business. I literally know hundreds of business owners across all sectors. To say the economy will snap back except for maybe travel is naive. but well intended.




My wife runs a relatively small business, and we've had many a discussion about how that will work. I didn't mean to imply that travel was the only sector that will be tough, but actually used that as one that might suffer the most.

Hospitality, restaurants and bars will be hard hit unless outside options create space to use. Factories may also have a hard time as we've seen with the meat industry, depending on type of floor they run.

Shopping, malls and other physical store spaces may suffer as internet shopping will still be available. People though do want to get out, and when malls opened in a medium sized city a few weeks ago in Brazil they were thronged. I think human nature will bring people quickly back to old habits and patterns.

My thinking is not that it will immediately go back to normal but that if a business that is closed wants to open, they will call previous laid off staff and attempt to hire them back. If they get some cash from a stimulus package they can pay staff until business picks up in a month or so as things open further. If those staff have cash they can buy products, food and other services and it all starts to regenerate and feed back positively.



< Message edited by obvert -- 5/10/2020 1:23:19 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7243
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 1:20:09 PM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Germany and Denmark remain considerably beneath the 1.0 threshold (.79 and .86, respectively). Denmark began easing on April 15. German around April 26.


Wish that would be still the case...
But no, it's ~ 1.1 here in Germany again.
Not sure if the relaxing alone was responsible - imho it's unfortunately the behaviour of this very special species of apes: as soon as the first restrictions were lifted, not everyone but too many idiots switched back in their old behaviour.

A friend is reopening his restaurant under chaotic regulations and give it at maximum two to three months until the next forced lockdown (which will end his business for ever). Only reservations, guests had to arrive in time and no more then 10 min late, had to registrate personallity including the exact chair and are forced to leave after 1 1/2 hour. Exactly like in the old GDR...

It's the people. If only once in while a volunteer would die in the middle of zhe street to confrontate the plebs with potentiel consequences.

< Message edited by Wuffer -- 5/10/2020 1:21:21 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7244
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 1:35:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I apologize, Wuffer, if I got it wrong. I got the info from this source, linked to by JohnD several days ago: https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/

(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 7245
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 1:36:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Oops, please ignore duplicate post.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/10/2020 1:58:34 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7246
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 1:45:52 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Got it. Sorry if I misunderstood your thinking..


I'm not sure what you mean.




The written word is very hard to communicate effectively with.

There obviously has been a lot of work done on modeling diseases and their impact on healthcare. However, Ferguson himself says he never thought a lockdown would be initiated in today's world. It was outside of his comprehension.

There was, to my mind, never an analysis of what the effects of a lockdown could be in the rush to prevent a medical collapse the goal was deemed so important as to justify almost any decision. Nothing ever operates in a vacuum, and the law of unintended consequences always rule while another law was broken.

When I was taking a Statistical Class in school long ago, there was a book...about the law of averages. It was a horror story, about what would happen to the world if the law of averages would be broken. And the world pretty much runs on the law of averages...it is in everything we do.

The Lockdown broke the law of averages. What it's outcome will be is absolutely uncertain except to say that the speed of change has accelerated to unbelievable levels.

Just the other day, Gov Cuomo of New York told reporters not to trust the numbers. Wise advice.






(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7247
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 1:58:02 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Got it. Sorry if I misunderstood your thinking..


I'm not sure what you mean.




The written word is very hard to communicate effectively with.

There obviously has been a lot of work done on modeling diseases and their impact on healthcare. However, Ferguson himself says he never thought a lockdown would be initiated in today's world. It was outside of his comprehension.

There was, to my mind, never an analysis of what the effects of a lockdown could be in the rush to prevent a medical collapse the goal was deemed so important as to justify almost any decision. Nothing ever operates in a vacuum, and the law of unintended consequences always rule while another law was broken.

When I was taking a Statistical Class in school long ago, there was a book...about the law of averages. It was a horror story, about what would happen to the world if the law of averages would be broken. And the world pretty much runs on the law of averages...it is in everything we do.

The Lockdown broke the law of averages. What it's outcome will be is absolutely uncertain except to say that the speed of change has accelerated to unbelievable levels.

Just the other day, Gov Cuomo of New York told reporters not to trust the numbers. Wise advice.



I guess I think back to other times and places where a catastrophe has broken systems down. Wars. Famine. Genocide. Financial Crisis. Natural Disaster. Sometimes those went on for a good long time in a specific place, sometimes across the entire planet.

In history so far we've always been able to put things back together, and sometimes quite quickly after a big problem.

If these lockdowns are short enough to just get cases low, begin opening and keep Ro manageable, I think things will gradually get better in a positive feedback loop. The credit system hasn't broken yet, markets are still functioning, if limping, and people in areas with measures in place so far seem able to get enough food, medicine and medical help to get through this first bit.

I'm in the optimistic camp. I think the economy will recover this year and if a second wave can be avoided in the fall, even unemployment will bounce back soon to under 10%. Some businesses will fail, but others will start. Some big businesses (Amazon) will get bigger. Some very rich will get richer. I do hope though that the most vulnerable people on the lowest end of the employment ladder will be able to make ends meet and get jobs. My worry is for those people.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7248
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:00:55 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22736
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
There will absolutely be a death toll if there is a worldwide depression akin to the 1930's. It just takes a while to get going. Right now it is like a post-apocalypse movie. There are still some canned goods left over in the stores. In x months we will have Hoovervilles all over the planet.

How did the world exit the Great Depression...with the worst war in the history of the planet. The last measure of US unemployment was 14.7% and that is a serious underestimate. At some point the damage will be irreversible in the short run (3-4 months let's say). Probably we are at that point already. Eventually you will see mortgage failures, bank failures, widespread business failures, international famines....ugly, ugly stuff. Quite possibly the economic doomsayers are battling it out with the public health doomsayers and we have to face the possibility they are BOTH right.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7249
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:05:36 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
and we have to face the possibility they are BOTH right.



Yep.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7250
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:08:08 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22736
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
You want some good news? The FDA just licensed a 15 minute COVID 19 nasal swab viral antigen test (based on the spike protein)

https://www.quidel.com/immunoassays/rapid-rsv-tests/quickvue-rsv-test

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7251
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:09:45 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
It pays to stay unemployed. That might be a good thing

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/09/it-pays-to-stay-unemployed-that-might-be-a-good-thing.html

In Pennsylvania, even if offered your job back, you can continue to stay on unemployment insurance and simply refuse to return to work. A rational short term decision.

It is interesting that bill that gives additional unemployment insurance till July, bailed out what I will call, in a general phrase, Wall Street for 4-5 years.


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7252
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:11:17 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8464
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Some of the people on the low end do not want jobs since they get free money and food, so why work. Sometimes they get free shelter as well.

As far as the businesses that fail, that can put people into bankruptcy. Other people see that and don't necessarily think of the opportunities.

Some people can get more money and have a better living on unemployment, at least for as long as that lasts. Some of it is because of the stimulus money. Other people may have difficulties finding employment and may leave the workforce. I expect that some of those will file for disability. Other people may do things to generate income that is not legal.

The important thing is the unemployment numbers, the more important number is those that are in the workforce - that is the employment rate.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7253
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:18:59 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22736
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
We just sold our medical office building to a some real estate investment firm (this week)....<snicker>. They just snapped it up hardly without doing any analysis. It's not like we lied to them. There is a really good lease on the building.....but....This is not a good time to be a landlord

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7254
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:24:29 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2937
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Some of the people on the low end do not want jobs since they get free money and food, so why work. Sometimes they get free shelter as well.


Yes, but what are those people as a percentage of the whole?

quote:

As far as the businesses that fail, that can put people into bankruptcy. Other people see that and don't necessarily think of the opportunities.


That's worth noting - there is scope for many traditional businesses to pivot during this crisis.

quote:

Some people can get more money and have a better living on unemployment, at least for as long as that lasts. Some of it is because of the stimulus money. Other people may have difficulties finding employment and may leave the workforce. I expect that some of those will file for disability. Other people may do things to generate income that is not legal.

The important thing is the unemployment numbers, the more important number is those that are in the workforce - that is the employment rate.


I think there may need to be a redrawing of the role of the state in regards to employment. UBI has been quite common in some of the discourse over here, so will be interesting to see if it resonates given the large jump in unemployment.


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7255
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:28:31 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

We just sold our medical office building to a some real estate investment firm (this week)....<snicker>. They just snapped it up hardly without doing any analysis. It's not like we lied to them. There is a really good lease on the building.....but....This is not a good time to be a landlord


Congratulations.

It will be interesting to see how all this shakes out. I suspect the tax laws for home offices will be liberalized, and even apartment and house layouts will change dramatically going forward to accommodate internet home offices. I have seen how hotels are offering very nice rates for daytime customers that want a room and some basic services to conduct work from instead of being restricted to their homes.

Talking about taxes, I saw the govt is thinking of delaying US Federal taxes till December.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7256
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:40:58 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 868
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
The amount of 'leadership' nonsense on this one is OTT. Stupid stuff like you get paid more to stay at home than work. We should just stay home and do 'nothing'. Farmers/ Cattle ranchers are trashing crops/cattle while people in markets are having a hard time getting supplies.....

As much as it hurts that we are losing people....this 'pandemic' does not hold a candle to previous ones, and the indirect damages IMO are not nearly being analyzed enough.

I'm in an addiction program. We still meet via Zoom and audio. One young woman lost her Dad and could not attend services or get in person support. The knock on effect will only get reported years from now. Maybe.

Had a conversation with my brother in law a couple of days ago. We discussed people having common sense.....

Also had a convo with my high school finance team (donate - not working). They were thinking more 'educate' at home tools would work going forward. I am opposed. When I was still working I was getting annoyed that people could not get out of their cubes and speak to each other.

Wall street did not really get bailed out back in the day, but I will leave that to research and interpretation for those interested.

How we pay for this if we all stay behind closed doors forever will be interesting.

Rant off.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7257
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:41:02 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8464
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Some of the people on the low end do not want jobs since they get free money and food, so why work. Sometimes they get free shelter as well.


Yes, but what are those people as a percentage of the whole?

Too many when you think of the societal costs. A man in his upper 30s willing to stay in a Group Home in the country because he gets free room and board while collecting 100 USD and is unwilling to help keep the place clean, complains when other people clean, stays up all night watching television and playing games, then complains when the "turkey" lunch meat looks funny when it is ham, needs to get a job. But because he lost his social security card and does not have any ID, he can't get a job. He does not bother to get the ID nor a new Social Security card either.

Another man scammed his way into SSI (a form of disability) because if he worked, child support payments would take most of his money because he had five children with five different women. He had only married the last woman.


quote:

As far as the businesses that fail, that can put people into bankruptcy. Other people see that and don't necessarily think of the opportunities.


That's worth noting - there is scope for many traditional businesses to pivot during this crisis.

But pivoting also costs money. Pivoting may not work either and then that money and effort is gone.

There was a restaurant that did a lot of take out business during the lock down but did not want to get into delivery because that would compete with another business that did deliver. If they had to, they would have delivered but many people went there to pick up the food. BTW, the other business offered to help.


quote:

Some people can get more money and have a better living on unemployment, at least for as long as that lasts. Some of it is because of the stimulus money. Other people may have difficulties finding employment and may leave the workforce. I expect that some of those will file for disability. Other people may do things to generate income that is not legal.

The important thing is the unemployment numbers, the more important number is those that are in the workforce - that is the employment rate.


I think there may need to be a redrawing of the role of the state in regards to employment. UBI has been quite common in some of the discourse over here, so will be interesting to see if it resonates given the large jump in unemployment.


Finland tried a UBI for awhile but it failed.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 7258
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:42:26 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8464
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

We just sold our medical office building to a some real estate investment firm (this week)....<snicker>. They just snapped it up hardly without doing any analysis. It's not like we lied to them. There is a really good lease on the building.....but....This is not a good time to be a landlord


Congratulations.

It will be interesting to see how all this shakes out. I suspect the tax laws for home offices will be liberalized, and even apartment and house layouts will change dramatically going forward to accommodate internet home offices. I have seen how hotels are offering very nice rates for daytime customers that want a room and some basic services to conduct work from instead of being restricted to their homes.

Talking about taxes, I saw the govt is thinking of delaying US Federal taxes till December.


That does not bother me, delay or not. I don't bother to file taxes.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7259
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/10/2020 2:46:04 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8464
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

The amount of 'leadership' nonsense on this one is OTT. Stupid stuff like you get paid more to stay at home than work. We should just stay home and do 'nothing'. Farmers/ Cattle ranchers are trashing crops/cattle while people in markets are having a hard time getting supplies.....

As much as it hurts that we are losing people....this 'pandemic' does not hold a candle to previous ones, and the indirect damages IMO are not nearly being analyzed enough.

I'm in an addiction program. We still meet via Zoom and audio. One young woman lost her Dad and could not attend services or get in person support. The knock on effect will only get reported years from now. Maybe.

Had a conversation with my brother in law a couple of days ago. We discussed people having common sense.....

Also had a convo with my high school finance team (donate - not working). They were thinking more 'educate' at home tools would work going forward. I am opposed. When I was still working I was getting annoyed that people could not get out of their cubes and speak to each other.

Wall street did not really get bailed out back in the day, but I will leave that to research and interpretation for those interested.

How we pay for this if we all stay behind closed doors forever will be interesting.

Rant off.


The first part is why we need to end the lock downs. That does not mean that people and business can't take prudent steps to avoid people getting sick nor protecting those most vulnerable. The collapse of the medical system did not occur, there are known treatments that are effective, so there is no reason to keep the current lock down systems in place.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7260
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