From: PDX (and now) London, UK
So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.
This is what I wanted to post.
A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.
This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.
Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).
Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.
No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019
first detected strain in US
Very good Slate article and it shows exactly why these things need a lot of fact checking. Hanson, quoted in the article about Fall spread in the US, is not a doctor and has an agenda relating to opening up the economy very soon regardless of "science" modelling, (which apparently he derides by putting it in quotes to call it into question, and that he wants fewer Chinese to study and travel to the US.
Due to this thread and it's many resources we've gone through the virus genetic tracing studies earlier, and know of the Nov 17 date of the earliest known case in China. I remember that date well because my wife returned from Xian that day.
My posting of this annecdotal story is to offer a possible extension to that. Not being a scientist, I don't know if some of these genetic studies have an error factor of a month or two, or if they're rock solid. It was obviously transmitting before the known case on Nov 17 was seen in hospital due to the gestation period for him and possibly whoever he caught it from. We've also read studies saying this is a slowly mutating virus genetically, so I wondered if in the initial phase, when the earlier strain was not transmitting as readily, before it's mutation, it slowly spread across pockets of the Chinese population.
I look forward to learning more.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill