Matrix Games Forums

Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: OT: Corona virus

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  235 236 [237] 238 239   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 9:24:13 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22748
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
We need a morale booster. I think they should set up giant speakers in every city in the US and play Tom Petty's "I won't back down" and have everyone come outside at the same time and sing along. Probably everyone between 30 and 75 knows the song in the US.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 7081
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 9:32:37 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.



Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7082
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 9:33:37 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22748
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
Or have Sir Paul do a worldwide video feed of Hey Jude.

The entire planet probably knows the the "na na na" chorus.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7083
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 9:38:40 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 870
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
Obvert - please focus on your new family member. I don't know why you are poking at people but it is getting old.

And best wishes with the larger family.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7084
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 9:42:37 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7085
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 9:58:21 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day


How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7086
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:05:51 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.



Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?


Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7087
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:09:39 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 870
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
And how does letting inmates out help the cause? At least in jail they can be controlled/tested/etc. But if they are infected letting them into the general population makes what kind of sense?

And perhaps their pre-prison tendencies remain. I will not vote for 95 percent of our elected 'leaders'. Stupid is just stupid.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7088
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:11:03 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.



Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?


Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.


That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7089
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:12:49 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8




Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.




_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7090
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:19:39 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day


How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.


I would agree it was here earlier.

I'm not sure these meat plants and prisons would indicate that though. They factors they share are: interiors, closely packed with the same people every day. What we do know about this is that it transmits easily, and now they think possibly more easily than original strains, and it does best in indoor areas. Plus it may be viable as aerosol for hours in still environments.

This is the first to indicate serology testing that I've seen. I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.

With daily transmissions and exponential growth, you get one case in there, to those same 2,000 people daily, its going to go through them fast. I'd say though that this probably means it's quite a lot more prevalent outside those facilities in those communities than is currently known.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7091
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:20:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3079
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
Obvert,
Sorry, haven't been in the forum much the last few weeks. I understand you had a blessed event? Congratulations!

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7092
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:24:31 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.



Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?


Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.


That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?


It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.



(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7093
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:27:06 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8




Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.





It is a good interview, I like this interviewer, I have watched two of his other interviews (well, listened to them while I cut the grass).

I would like to have seen more talk of South Korea, and also more of a discussion of his disagreement with Sweeden's route.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7094
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:31:50 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day


How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.


I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.



Me too. But we aren't seeing a high death count or hospitalization level because you would think that would be reported. 1,000 infected means how many dead: 1%; well that would be 10. Half a percent, that would mean 5. I think that would make the story.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7095
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:32:29 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.

This is what I wanted to post.

A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.

This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.

Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).

Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7096
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:33:42 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day


How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.


I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.



Me too. But we aren't seeing a high death count or hospitalization level because you would think that would be reported. 1,000 infected means how many dead: 1%; well that would be 10. Half a percent, that would mean 5. I think that would make the story.



We'd have to see age and health stats for workers too though to see how they compare to known risk groups.


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7097
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:37:03 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8




Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.





It is a good interview, I like this interviewer, I have watched two of his other interviews (well, listened to them while I cut the grass).

I would like to have seen more talk of South Korea, and also more of a discussion of his disagreement with Sweeden's route.



He seems to say enough to understand their death rate, at the time the same per capita as NYC apparently, was very high compared to other strategies. I thought his stance on Korea being the model to follow implied what he thought of the Swedish choice. You have to get case numbers down to follow that model, and Sweden's course is to allow a (hopefully) slow burn through the population.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7098
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:39:26 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.



Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?


Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.


That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?


It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.





I didn't label you. I noticed may of your posts trend toward articles and other that are anti-lockdown, and asked about that. It's just above. It's a question.

I'm also confused by your response. So asked about that too. Sorry.

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/8/2020 10:42:19 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7099
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 10:41:07 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Obvert,
Sorry, haven't been in the forum much the last few weeks. I understand you had a blessed event? Congratulations!


Thanks! Really appreciate the support.

Not here yet though. Still waiting.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7100
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 11:13:21 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


He seems to say enough to understand their death rate, at the time the same per capita as NYC apparently, was very high compared to other strategies. I thought his stance on Korea being the model to follow implied what he thought of the Swedish choice. You have to get case numbers down to follow that model, and Sweden's course is to allow a (hopefully) slow burn through the population.


Perhaps he has better information, because going back in time of the interview,according to worldometer graphs,Sweden is declining and nowhere near New York state, let along a more narrow focus on NYC. At least in deaths per million.

Only noticed because of one of the comments so I quickly double checked.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7101
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 11:19:41 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.



Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?


Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.


That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?


It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.





I didn't label you. I noticed may of your posts trend toward articles and other that are anti-lockdown, and asked about that. It's just above. It's a question.

I'm also confused by your response. So asked about that too. Sorry.


If you perceive a bias, then it is there for you.

I don't think my posts are anti-lockdown. I think they are informative especially on topics that don't see a lot of discussion. I am not even sure what anti-lockdown means.



(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7102
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 11:27:15 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20019
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.

This is what I wanted to post.

A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.

This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.

Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).

Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.


No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019
https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-circulating-california-2019-bunk.html

first detected strain in US

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/north-america?s=USA/WA1/2020



(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7103
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 2:27:14 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22748
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7104
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 3:21:36 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Man. The Press. I'm not sure what else to say.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7105
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 3:27:36 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 25051
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

It's my understanding the CCP had the samples from early patients destroyed.

_____________________________


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7106
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 3:53:49 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22748
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
Uggh. Two of our office suite LVN's are down with fever.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7107
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 3:58:51 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22748
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

It's my understanding the CCP had the samples from early patients destroyed.


They did destroy some specimens, yes. This means the first available specimen may not be patient zero but the earliest human specimen available is from Wuhan and all subsequent mutations seem to derive from his specimen .

Check out the Nextstrain site Lowpe posted. It's very powerful stuff.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 7108
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 4:02:40 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22748
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
It's the mutation rate analysis that allows Nexstrain to estimate late November or early December for the jump to humans..otherwise there likely would have been multiple strains circulating in Wuhan in late December.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7109
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 4:02:52 AM   
pontiouspilot


Posts: 1077
Joined: 7/27/2012
Status: offline
The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are ****ty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7110
Page:   <<   < prev  235 236 [237] 238 239   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  235 236 [237] 238 239   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.227