Matrix Games Forums

Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: OT: Corona virus

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  234 235 [236] 237 238   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 4:26:02 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3078
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery


< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 5/8/2020 4:27:07 PM >


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7051
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 4:32:14 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I recall that in one election (I think Obama vs. Romney, 2012) a number of precincts in Philadelphia reported 100% for the Democrat candidate. But even in the most stubbornly red or blue precincts in this nation, there are ALWAYS a few who think differently. Unanimity in the population never occurs.


Some voting precincts in Philly are over 100%. The highest I remember is 110%.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7052
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 4:40:03 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced


I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control


Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/8/2020 4:41:02 PM >

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 7053
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 4:43:42 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery



I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7054
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 4:45:51 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2939
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced


I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control


Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.



I think the real issue lies in areas where you are modelling established patterns of behaviour which, when people are made aware of, would lead to a change in behaviour and made the model less accurate.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7055
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 4:53:09 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced


I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control


Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.



I think the real issue lies in areas where you are modelling established patterns of behaviour which, when people are made aware of, would lead to a change in behaviour and made the model less accurate.


I would disagree. There is huge difference between say insurance company models and academic modelling.

I would argue that academic & ngo modelling should be excluded from being used as a public policy input. Why, simply because its track record is so consistently wrong and those models don't need a change in behavior to make the model less accurate.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 7056
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 5:19:04 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
This link is primarily for Obvert, it is about media bias, and goes back to a book about media bias from an insider years back that I recommended. Well, he just wrote another article about it.

In the age of Trump, media bias comes into the spotlight

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/495927-in-the-age-of-trump-media-bias-comes-into-the-spotlight

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/8/2020 5:24:14 PM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7057
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 5:23:46 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
K-12 school leaders warn of 'disaster' from huge coronavirus-related budget cuts as layoffs and furloughs begin

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/K-12-school-leaders-warn-of-disaster-from-huge-15256113.php

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7058
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 5:24:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Wow, that makes for interesting reading.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This link is primarily for Obvert, it is about media bias, and goes back to a book about media bias from an insider years back. Well, he just wrote another article about it.

In the age of Trump, media bias comes into the spotlight

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/495927-in-the-age-of-trump-media-bias-comes-into-the-spotlight


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7059
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 5:37:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Regarding the media, I've long been on the fringes of the industry. For most of my professional life, I've worked with or closely to the media - as a magazine publisher, lawyer, teacher and speaker.

I've seen the media attack people with tunnel vision - turning relentless spotlights on them, criticizing them unendingly, questioning every move and motive.

The media is powerful and usually moves as a herd. Getting in its way is like facing a stampede - one of the most terrible things an individual (or business, for that matter) can endure. You undergo relentless public attacks with no way of defending yourself or fighting back. If the media portray you as negligent, evil, stupid, biased, ignorant or whatever, you simply have to endure it indefinitely.

It can ruin lives and careers. There are countless prominent examples like Richard Jewell, the Jon Bonet Ramsey family, Dan Quayle (The Murphy Brown episode), George Bush (lacks gravitas) and on and on. But there are countless everyday people whose lives have been disrupted or destroyed. They have no means of fighting back.

Most cannot survive a relentless media attack since there's no real way of fighting back. That's what makes Donald Trump such a unique force. He doesn't cower; he fights back, and effectively so. And that's a big reasons that many Red State Americans support him. Because they've come to loathe the press.




(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7060
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 5:44:50 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 868
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
my take was folks looking to 'get more'. Which sickens me......

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7061
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 5:49:44 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

2019-2020 Legislative Session
Relates to the removal of cases, contacts and carriers of communicable diseases who are potentially dangerous to the public health

https://www.nysenate.gov//legislation/bills/2019/A99

Medical arrest powers.

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 7062
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 7:02:18 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced


Trust Nodes appears to be a cryptocurrency news source. Is that right? I can find little about it an NO second reputable source to check any of these claims.

While the Imperial College findings were published and caused a splash, there are a lot of other sources that were used to determine policy in all of the countries that locked down. Many locked up well before these reports even came out.

Lockdown is not good for the economy, anywhere, but it was essential to mitigate losses in this first phase since due to many factors, there was no chance to effectively test, trace and isolate. People are tending to forget that the scenes in NY and surrounding were caused by unmitigated spread of this virus, and that would happen anywhere, much worse, given time and no measures.

This is an article about what was actually going on in these models that are currently being so vilified. The assertions in the above article are just plain silly. That the result of modelling were not replicable due to the age and unreliability of the code? Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor? I call BS on that.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7063
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 7:05:50 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3078
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery



I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.


Toady's grim unemployment numbers were worse than meets the eye. The absolute number was not a big surprise. The distribution was the real bad news. It's not just the retail and hospitality which was expected to make up the bulk of the newly unemployed. In actuality, it was less than half. Manufacturing, computers, white collar, legal, government (about 450,000 teachers), construction and most surprisingly employment in health care fell by 1.4 million as Americans avoided visits to their doctors and dentists for all but the direst emergencies. Basic preventative care is being neglected and that is a bit of a time bomb.


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7064
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 7:06:07 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6


Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

WHO WOULD BUY A USED COMPUTER MODEL FROM ‘BONKING BOFFIN’ FERGUSON?
https://americanpriority.com/news/who-would-buy-a-used-computer-model-from-bonking-boffin-ferguson/

and more:

citing reporting by the British newspaper The Telegraph:

“Ferguson has been wrong so often that some of his fellow modelers call him ‘The Master of Disaster.’

“Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die.

“In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

“In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

“In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.”


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/8/2020 7:25:13 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7065
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 7:11:33 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery



I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.


Toady's grim unemployment numbers were worse than meets the eye. The absolute number was not a big surprise. The distribution was the real bad news. It's not just the retail and hospitality which was expected to make up the bulk of the newly unemployed. In actuality, it was less than half. Manufacturing, computers, white collar, legal, government (about 450,000 teachers), construction and most surprisingly employment in health care fell by 1.4 million as Americans avoided visits to their doctors and dentists for all but the direst emergencies. Basic preventative care is being neglected and that is a bit of a time bomb.



It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7066
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 7:36:50 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3078
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

Yup. So many things. People are not going to trust restaurants and bars in large numbers for a long time. Airlines and hotels? Even if you could afford it do you trust them? Who is buying a new car when your unemployed or worried about your job? New housing starts? Maybe, if people want to flee the city. Major construction? Not likely. They will finish whats going on but financing new stuff wont be easy. Health and hospitals? Many hospitals will close. Luxury goods? Retail? Brick and mortar retail was dying before this. Office and professional services jobs? We just found out we don't need so many people and most of those can work at home? Government jobs? Big cuts coming there. Cruise Ships? Ding-Dong-Dead! I just don't see many growth industries. And what kind of economy are we running when the the stock markets spikes up every time millions of people loose their jobs? I don't know why but this makes me sad and angry. I suspect when the 2nd wave or the next lock-down hits (As always I'm on "Team Science") the markets may get the point. With 20 million people out of work who is going to drive an economy that is 75% based on consumer spending?

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 5/8/2020 7:37:44 PM >


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7067
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 7:40:05 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

Yup. So many things. People are not going to trust restaurants and bars in large numbers for a long time. Airlines and hotels? Even if you could afford it do you trust them? Who is buying a new car when your unemployed or worried about your job? New housing starts? Maybe, if people want to flee the city. Major construction? Not likely. They will finish whats going on but financing new stuff wont be easy. Health and hospitals? Many hospitals will close. Luxury goods? Retail? Brick and mortar retail was dying before this. Office and professional services jobs? We just found out we don't need so many people and most of those can work at home? Government jobs? Big cuts coming there. Cruise Ships? Ding-Dong-Dead! I just don't see many growth industries. And what kind of economy are we running when the the stock markets spikes up every time millions of people loose their jobs? I don't know why but this makes me sad and angry. I suspect when the 2nd wave or the next lock-down hits (As always I'm on "Team Science") the markets may get the point. With 20 million people out of work who is going to drive an economy that is 75% based on consumer spending?


Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7068
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 7:57:31 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3078
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

I used to think there were brilliant experts in the markets. I'm convinced they are mostly a bunch of emotional idiots and to some extent the game is rigged against the little guy in the short run. Too much insider info. Warren Buffet was right. Buy an index fund and let it sit there for 10 years and it will out preform every "expert". If you watch the financial channels they are absolutely confident and convinced they know what they are talking about. They don't. We have never, ever, been in a place like this in out lifetimes and anybody that thinks they know whats going to happen is trying to sell you something. This is true for everything. Your guess is as good as mine. They don't know anything more than you or I and if you are bright, and have decent reasoning skills, you probably know more.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7069
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:10:32 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Delingpole: Ferguson’s Dodgy Model Has Engendered a World-Historical Blunder

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/08/our-response-to-this-pandemic-is-a-world-historical-blunder/

Now I wouldn't go here...as Delingpole's cites the lockdown skeptic analysis of code that I linked to several days ago. It is not enough for me.

But there are a lot of good questions asked in the article. Oh, I would love to see anyone from this thread get the chance to ask the Press Secretary a question rather than the jokers in that room....




(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7070
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:15:51 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
I am sure this will be good for business. I wonder what the legal basis for taking them over?


LA city council votes to name hotels that refuse to house homeless, may 'commandeer' them


https://www.foxnews.com/us/la-city-council-votes-to-name-hotels-that-refuse-to-house-homeless-may-commandeer-them

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/8/2020 8:16:44 PM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7071
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:22:34 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

I used to think there were brilliant experts in the markets. I'm convinced they are mostly a bunch of emotional idiots and to some extent the game is rigged against the little guy in the short run. Too much insider info. Warren Buffet was right. Buy an index fund and let it sit there for 10 years and it will out preform every "expert". If you watch the financial channels they are absolutely confident and convinced they know what they are talking about. They don't. We have never, ever, been in a place like this in out lifetimes and anybody that thinks they know whats going to happen is trying to sell you something. This is true for everything. Your guess is as good as mine. They don't know anything more than you or I and if you are bright, and have decent reasoning skills, you probably know more.


Buffet just sold all his airplane holdings.

When I was in college, In Search of Excellence was the thought in business. When I left the working world, I would have been happy to have found competence. I ran a small business, max 35 employees, that serviced primarily Fortune 500 companies. Every single one incompetence ruled the day and it got worse from year to year. It always amazed me that they could post profits.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/8/2020 8:25:22 PM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7072
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:23:50 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6


Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?


No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

PS - It's quite clear you don't really care what I'm adding to the conversation, since you obviously didn't actually read what was posted in the 3-4 minutes it took to post your response.

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/8/2020 8:30:27 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7073
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:25:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
All this economic stuff is enough to keep one awake at night. Not to mention that it follows, and now walks alongside, three months of worries about a novel virus that flamed into pandemic.

Yuck.

Hey, but I know of a man who was utterly destitute yet wrote from jail, with complete conviction, "I have learned to be content whatever the circumstances." That's priceless.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7074
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:26:50 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6


Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?


No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.


No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.

But blindingly accepting things I can't do.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/8/2020 8:32:54 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7075
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:31:18 PM   
22sec

 

Posts: 900
Joined: 12/11/2004
From: Jackson, MS
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

All this economic stuff is enough to keep one awake at night. Not to mention that it follows, and now walks alongside, three months of worries about a novel virus that flamed into pandemic.

Yuck.

Hey, but I know of a man who was utterly destitute yet wrote from jail, with complete conviction, "I have learned to be content whatever the circumstances." That's priceless.


Amen!

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7076
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:38:05 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6


Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?


No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.


No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.



Well, that's what is happening in the States, right? How does questioning higher mortality levels modelled two months ago help your position?

The US would have used independent models and predictions regardless of the awareness of the Imperial figures, and the UK has as well. Have a read of the article if you want to know more.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7077
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:43:49 PM   
Nomad

 

Posts: 4733
Joined: 9/5/2001
From: West Yellowstone, Montana
Status: offline
This might have been posted before, but I find it so stupid:

The FDA wants us to social distance from our pets.

https://news.yahoo.com/fda-recommending-pet-owners-practice-184454087.html

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7078
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 8:47:34 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7339
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: St. Petersburg, Florida, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad

This might have been posted before, but I find it so stupid:

The FDA wants us to social distance from our pets.

https://news.yahoo.com/fda-recommending-pet-owners-practice-184454087.html



And they can go fly a kite.......

Since propriety dictates I not tell them what they can really do.....

_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to Nomad)
Post #: 7079
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/8/2020 9:16:28 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20001
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6


Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?


No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.


No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.



Well, that's what is happening in the States, right? How does questioning higher mortality levels modelled two months ago help your position?

The US would have used independent models and predictions regardless of the awareness of the Imperial figures, and the UK has as well. Have a read of the article if you want to know more.




I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

I did read the article you posted. It didn't answer really the critiques of his code. For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8






< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/8/2020 9:21:20 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7080
Page:   <<   < prev  234 235 [236] 237 238   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  234 235 [236] 237 238   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.258