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RE: OT: Corona virus

 
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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/5/2020 10:20:00 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I find this one a bit ridiculous.



Could he have quit because it was an adulterous affair? Are there morality clauses in England or perhaps secrecy concerns?

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 6721
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/5/2020 10:23:15 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2942
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I find this one a bit ridiculous.



Could he have quit because it was an adulterous affair? Are there morality clauses in England or perhaps secrecy concerns?


Mostly a messaging issue, I think. If you're on the group setting the distancing guidelines, and then don't follow them in your own life, it's difficult to get the rest of the population on board.

Plus, as warspite illustrated, there's a real sense of resentment at "one rule for us, another for the rest".

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6722
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/5/2020 10:26:23 PM   
22sec

 

Posts: 900
Joined: 12/11/2004
From: Jackson, MS
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More Pennsylvania news:

https://archive.is/3SkVa (Pittsburgh Action News)

Pitt researcher studying coronavirus killed in suspected murder-suicide in Ross Township

"Bing was on the verge of making very significant findings toward understanding the cellular mechanisms that underlie SARS-CoV-2 infection and the cellular basis of the following complications," the department said in a written statement.


That almost sounds like something from a Hollywood thriller - Chinese scientist working on unlocking key to virus causing worldwide pandemic shot dead...

_____________________________


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6723
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/5/2020 11:05:53 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8532
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
If he already had the CoViD-9, then he should not have had to stay away from people. In fact, finding those people who have had it but have it no longer, who can and will work in nursing homes and the like, might be a way to help those at most risk.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to 22sec)
Post #: 6724
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 12:56:54 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 15699
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I find this one a bit ridiculous.



Could he have quit because it was an adulterous affair? Are there morality clauses in England or perhaps secrecy concerns?

Didn't they make a movie about this subject? "No Sex Please, We're British"?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMmEGArPp8Q

He was obviously violating a long established British tradition!


_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6725
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 2:06:21 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2155
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
This discussion of the press reminded me of one time I was visiting my parents in Iowa in the late 90s and I noticed my old man reading the NYT Sunday edition, to which he subscribed. "Dad, what are you doing reading that?" "If you filter it, there's some good stuff in here."

As a PR guy in the latter part of my career, I make it a point to know a lot of foreign correspondents. One thing I've noticed is the ones who have primarily had an international career tend to be fairly politically neutral in their Facebook and Twitter posts (call it 80% of them being neutral). They'll stick to retweeting news stories and the like. Regarding the ones I know who did a 2-3 year stint here and then went back to the U.S., the ones who are active on social media don't seem to hesitate to make political judgments, and Cap Mandrake will be 100% correct in his guess as to which way they lean. Now, in a perfect world, their political leanings wouldn't affect their writing. I don't believe we live in a perfect world.

EDIT: More good news in Korea, with zero indigenous cases (two at the airport). Public schools will be reopened on a grade-by-grade basis starting next week. The daily report: S. Korea reports no new local virus cases for 3rd day amid lax social distancing

Cheers,
CB

< Message edited by CaptBeefheart -- 5/6/2020 2:16:04 AM >


_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 6726
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 2:16:07 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8532
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

This discussion of the press reminded me of one time I was visiting my parents in Iowa in the late 90s and I noticed my old man reading the NYT Sunday edition, to which he subscribed. "Dad, what are you doing reading that?" "If you filter it, there's some good stuff in here."

As a PR guy in the latter part of my career, I make it a point to know a lot of foreign correspondents. One thing I've noticed is the ones who have primarily had an international career tend to be fairly politically neutral in their Facebook and Twitter posts (call it 80% of them being neutral). They'll stick to retweeting news stories and the like. Regarding the ones I know who did a 2-3 year stint here and then went back to the U.S., the ones who are active on social media don't seem to hesitate to make political judgments, and Cap Mandrake will be 100% correct in his guess as to which way they lean. Now, in a perfect world, their political leanings wouldn't affect their writing. I don't believe we live in a perfect world.

Cheers,
CB


I do believe that Walter Cronkite was a liberal but it did not come out in his reporting. If he said it, you could believe it.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 6727
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 2:21:07 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

not peer reviewed yet

there is also an Indian study that makes similar claims.


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 6728
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 2:21:49 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2155
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

This discussion of the press reminded me of one time I was visiting my parents in Iowa in the late 90s and I noticed my old man reading the NYT Sunday edition, to which he subscribed. "Dad, what are you doing reading that?" "If you filter it, there's some good stuff in here."

As a PR guy in the latter part of my career, I make it a point to know a lot of foreign correspondents. One thing I've noticed is the ones who have primarily had an international career tend to be fairly politically neutral in their Facebook and Twitter posts (call it 80% of them being neutral). They'll stick to retweeting news stories and the like. Regarding the ones I know who did a 2-3 year stint here and then went back to the U.S., the ones who are active on social media don't seem to hesitate to make political judgments, and Cap Mandrake will be 100% correct in his guess as to which way they lean. Now, in a perfect world, their political leanings wouldn't affect their writing. I don't believe we live in a perfect world.

Cheers,
CB


I do believe that Walter Cronkite was a liberal but it did not come out in his reporting. If he said it, you could believe it.


I know a guy who tends to live here who earned his chops covering the Vietnam War and he was present when a North Korean agent shot the wife of President Park Chung-hee (he missed the president) in 1974. I've had a number of beers with him and he even went to my wedding, but I have no idea what his politics are. Two words: old school.

Cheers,
CB

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 6729
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 2:25:46 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announces $775m in state budget cuts to education, Medicaid and more


https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/05/ohio-gov-mike-dewine-announces-775m-in-state-budget-cuts-to-education-medicaid-and-more.html

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6730
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 2:29:42 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
University of Akron to eliminate six of 11 colleges as part of cost-saving measures due to coronavirus pandemic

https://www.cleveland.com/education/2020/05/university-of-akron-to-eliminate-six-of-11-colleges-as-part-of-cost-saving-measures-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic.html

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6731
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 3:06:59 AM   
Nomad

 

Posts: 4741
Joined: 9/5/2001
From: West Yellowstone, Montana
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

not peer reviewed yet

there is also an Indian study that makes similar claims.




I guess it is a good thing that I take 4000IU a day. We get very little sunlight up here, especially during the Winter.

_____________________________


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6732
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 6:40:08 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More Pennsylvania news:

https://archive.is/3SkVa (Pittsburgh Action News)

Pitt researcher studying coronavirus killed in suspected murder-suicide in Ross Township

"Bing was on the verge of making very significant findings toward understanding the cellular mechanisms that underlie SARS-CoV-2 infection and the cellular basis of the following complications," the department said in a written statement.


Ok. Cue Hollywood blockbuster international thriller. So weird.

In looking into this there seems to be no indication of motive at present. At least his research will be continued by his colleagues and honour his achievements.

In looking into this I also found a few other interesting articles I hadn't seen before. This from a Chinese research project (published and peer reviewed).

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12328747&ref=art_readmore

Coronavirus patients discharged from hospital could still carry the virus deep in their lungs, undetected by conventional testing methods, a Chinese study has found.

The discovery, published in a paper in peer-reviewed journal Cell Research on Tuesday, could explain why a growing number of recovered patients had tested positive again.

"Our work provided the first pathological evidence for residual virus in the lung for a patient [who tested negative] three consecutive times," wrote the researchers, led by Dr Bian Xiuwu of the Army Medical University in Chongqing, southwest China.


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6733
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 7:09:36 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

This discussion of the press reminded me of one time I was visiting my parents in Iowa in the late 90s and I noticed my old man reading the NYT Sunday edition, to which he subscribed. "Dad, what are you doing reading that?" "If you filter it, there's some good stuff in here."

As a PR guy in the latter part of my career, I make it a point to know a lot of foreign correspondents. One thing I've noticed is the ones who have primarily had an international career tend to be fairly politically neutral in their Facebook and Twitter posts (call it 80% of them being neutral). They'll stick to retweeting news stories and the like. Regarding the ones I know who did a 2-3 year stint here and then went back to the U.S., the ones who are active on social media don't seem to hesitate to make political judgments, and Cap Mandrake will be 100% correct in his guess as to which way they lean. Now, in a perfect world, their political leanings wouldn't affect their writing. I don't believe we live in a perfect world.

Cheers,
CB


I do believe that Walter Cronkite was a liberal but it did not come out in his reporting. If he said it, you could believe it.


I know a guy who tends to live here who earned his chops covering the Vietnam War and he was present when a North Korean agent shot the wife of President Park Chung-hee (he missed the president) in 1974. I've had a number of beers with him and he even went to my wedding, but I have no idea what his politics are. Two words: old school.

Cheers,
CB


That is how it should be, for sure.

I was also impressed that regardless of political leaning, those with experience you mentioned before stay to the middle and don't continually broadcast their own views on social media. Integrity is a dwindling quality in some circles, but I do see a lot of it in some of the young people I work with daily, so there is hope. They just need those experienced examples to follow and look up to sometimes to see how it's done.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 6734
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 7:12:21 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

not peer reviewed yet

there is also an Indian study that makes similar claims.




I guess it is a good thing that I take 4000IU a day. We get very little sunlight up here, especially during the Winter.


I's also been unusually sunny at this end of Britain for about the past seven weeks. It makes those daily exercise trips also very good for the Vitamin D absorption, and probably very good for the entire population that we've still been allowed to get out to do these things, unlike some countries with more severe restrictions.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Nomad)
Post #: 6735
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 7:15:32 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 42961
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I find this one a bit ridiculous.



Could he have quit because it was an adulterous affair? Are there morality clauses in England or perhaps secrecy concerns?

Didn't they make a movie about this subject? "No Sex Please, We're British"?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMmEGArPp8Q

He was obviously violating a long established British tradition!

warspite1

Correct. Only the lower classes have sex. Posh people get people to do this disgusting act for them.


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 6736
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 7:19:31 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not yet sure about that, BBfanboy. Each measure (cases, testing, mortality) is subject to uncertainties/issues, but mortality is probably a better measure than confirmed cases. To this point, a number of European countries have significantly higher mortality rates (2x to 4x). Contrary to the news report you allude to, new cases and mortality are level or dropping in the US and in many states. That might change, and according to IHME it will, but until it does, the situation in the US isn't as severe as Italy, Spain, France, UK, Belgium, and Netherlands, among others.

Re: your assertion that the US health care system hasn't fared any better, that isn't the case either. The US has had roughly the same number of cases/million as Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Ireland, and a good bit more than UK and France, yet significantly lower mortality/million than those countries. By that measure, the medical system has handled its case load comparatively well.

We don't know how things will turn out in the end, but to this point the US has done comparatively well.


Mortality is a lagging, but accurate account of what has been happening, it's just that we still don't have a good grasp of the infection mortality rate (I hope I'm using the correct term. I know it's not case fatality rate, but overall infections, known or unknown).

I've been leaning toward looking at the percentage positive in testing as a good indicator of persistence of the infection within the population now that testing has increased to a relatively high level in many places. In the US it's still at 16+%, so above the WHO recommended reopening guideline of 10% positive.

The trouble with understanding the US is that it is very different in density, measures in place, compliance and other regional factors. We may not know for a while how htings will go into the summer. I don't think they're going to be as difficult as IHME is predicting now, but I don't think it'll b easy everywhere during the reopening phase either. Some outbreaks will likely flare up.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6737
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 10:17:25 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
I have a friend who works in the travel industry. He still has a job (so far, fingers crossed) but the prospects for airline travel are looking grim for a while.

I've been thinking that domestic travel will pick up accordingly as border closures and 14 day required quarantines thwart most international travel. AirBnB just confirmed my suspicions, saying bookings are up for the summer, and even in April were surprisingly high, almost at 2019 levels, in Denmark and the Netherlands.

A large country with well-established internal travel habits like the US should rebound even faster as long as incomes and jobs return. It kind of a chicken or egg thing though too, as travel bookings have to increase for some jobs to come back, which hopefully then feeds more bookings.

https://www.ft.com/content/6a64045a-6748-4670-bb56-a23263a9251d

As the pandemic spread, Airbnb forced its hosts to give refunds to guests whose travel was disrupted by Covid-19.

But the company said that by the end of April the number of bookings by Danish users planning stays in their own country was at around 90 per cent of April 2019 levels, while in the Netherlands domestic bookings were approaching 80 per cent of last year.

Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Austria also saw some improvement in the number of domestic bookings, but Airbnb declined to comment on whether travellers were planning trips for the summer or later in the year.

Many companies worry that even if travel restrictions are lifted and fear of the virus wanes, household budgets will be too tight for consumers to book trips. A survey of 7,000 consumers by Boston Consulting Group in April found that more than half of US consumers and almost 70 per cent in the UK planned to reduce travel spending over the next six months.

But Mr Chesky said Airbnb had at least seen an increase in the number of people “searching with dates”, a key indicator of an intention to book in the very near future.


This is also a great page on the FT showing some of the major countries in Europe and how they plan to open up gradually.

https://www.ft.com/content/abdb7223-06da-4d52-b380-5606628b5f0e

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/6/2020 10:37:02 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 6738
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 10:24:31 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Here s a great country by country comparative tool to show curves posted by the FT. I'll just show a pic but it's really better to assign your own parameters.

This is just one comparison I threw in for kicks.






Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 6739
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 10:46:00 AM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7339
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: St. Petersburg, Florida, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

In the last year or so there has been rising public demand that big tech companies stop allowing misleading or dangerous information on their platforms. They didn't create it, but when it became apparent that the info was often harmful to some people, the tech companies were expected to remove it.

The health study provides the context under which YouTube removed information that appears to be misleading and potentially harmful if large numbers of people believe the original assertions of those doctors are true.

The fact that those doctors appear to be in a position to benefit from opening up the lockdown by having increased testing of workers is another indicator that their claims should be taken with lots of skepticism.

So given the context of ALL the information, should YouTube be criticized or applauded for removing the video? There will likely be supporters on both sides but YouTube is in a no-win situation no matter whether it did something or nothing.



Your apparent willingness to embrace authoritarian rule is stunning.

The issue at hand is if the Big Tech communications 'platforms' are platforms or publishers.

As platforms, unlike publishers, they enjoy the benefit of not being held responsible for content.

As platforms they have NO RIGHT to editorial control over content.

As publishers they not only have the right to editorial control over content, they have a responsibility to it.

Currently our governments are collectively allowing the Big Tech companies to have their cake and eat it too, by allowing them the protected status of platforms while also allowing them to get away with unmonitored, uncontrolled, authoritarian editorial control over content.

Who gets to occupy the exalted position of deciding what content is, or is not 'harmful'?

What happens when those given authoritarian control decide the truth is 'harmful'?

Why do we constantly have to relearn the lessons of history?


_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 6740
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 10:49:54 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6296
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I find this one a bit ridiculous.



Could he have quit because it was an adulterous affair? Are there morality clauses in England or perhaps secrecy concerns?


Mostly a messaging issue, I think. If you're on the group setting the distancing guidelines, and then don't follow them in your own life, it's difficult to get the rest of the population on board.

Plus, as warspite illustrated, there's a real sense of resentment at "one rule for us, another for the rest".


The Scottish CMO had to resign earlier for a infraction. A direct precedent had therefore been established.

Plus, behind the scenes we have no idea how many politicians thought this was an opportunity too good to pass. Ferguson's track record has not endeared him to all UK decision makers who have to face criticism of the policies born directly out of his modelling.

Alfred

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6741
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 10:52:22 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6296
Joined: 9/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


Correct. Only the lower classes have sex. Posh people get people to do this disgusting act to them.




Corrected that for you.

Alfred

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 6742
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 12:41:54 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22763
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From: Southern California
Status: offline
The elites can't help it if they were born into opulence. Let's try to be a bit more tolerant, shall we?

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 6743
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 1:02:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21098
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
A month ago, Denmark announced that it was easing some countermeasures (see Bloomberg article posted in this thread on 4/6, as an example).

The easing included schools re-opening around April 15, IIRC.

Since then, cases and mortalities have not spiked there. However, both levels have remained stubbornly flat. (The graphics are from Worldometers and Univ. of Wash.).

Two weeks ago, there were articles that Germany might have to reimpose countermeasures, due to some spiking. I haven't heard anything further in that regard, so don't think anything like that happened.

Currently, the US news media (and some leaders) are emphasizing that new projections show new cases may quadruple to 100k per day within a few months, and deaths double to 3k per day. I remain modestly skeptical, mainly because we've learned a lot in three months (chiefly, to protect vulnerable populations like the elderly), still have restrictions against large gatherings, and even when ambushed the medical community mostly hasn't been overwhelmed.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 6744
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 1:39:07 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25288
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I find this one a bit ridiculous.



Could he have quit because it was an adulterous affair? Are there morality clauses in England or perhaps secrecy concerns?

Didn't they make a movie about this subject? "No Sex Please, We're British"?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMmEGArPp8Q

He was obviously violating a long established British tradition!

warspite1

Correct. Only the lower classes have sex. Posh people get people to do this disgusting act for them.



I thank you for your candor. You give me an entirely new viewpoint on keeping the 'British end up'.

_____________________________


(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 6745
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 1:42:46 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 312
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A month ago, Denmark announced that it was easing some countermeasures (see Bloomberg article posted in this thread on 4/6, as an example).

The easing included schools re-opening around April 15, IIRC.

Since then, cases and mortalities have not spiked there. However, both levels have remained stubbornly flat. (The graphics are from Worldometers and Univ. of Wash.).

Two weeks ago, there were articles that Germany might have to reimpose countermeasures, due to some spiking. I haven't heard anything further in that regard, so don't think anything like that happened.

Currently, the US news media (and some leaders) are emphasizing that new projections show new cases may quadruple to 100k per day within a few months, and deaths double to 3k per day. I remain modestly skeptical, mainly because we've learned a lot in three months (chiefly, to protect vulnerable populations like the elderly), still have restrictions against large gatherings, and even when ambushed the medical community mostly hasn't been overwhelmed.



I think there are two potential approaches to the lifting of lockdown measures.

The first approach would be to be explicit in saying that the damage being done to the economy/public finances is becoming so great that it now outweighs the 'worst case' death toll as predicted by the more pessimistic forecasters. I don't know where the US economy is at. From a UK perspective my guess is that we have capacity in the public finances for maybe one more 3 month lockdown (with jobs/businesses protected through government support) before the money runs out or the debt becomes unmanageable. If that is the case then I think the choice facing our government from that perspective is whether we use that 3 month capacity now to try and squash things right down or whether to start lifting things and hold on to the option so that it can be used in the autumn/winter when health services are most at risk of becoming overwhelmed.

The second approach is to be saying that actually the data is suggesting that it is now 'safe' to lift the restrictions without significant increases in mortality. There is certainly data that is looking very positive and expert opinions reflecting that. But for me at least I would not be comfortable saying that it is 'safe' to lift restrictions until there is more of an explanation of what happened in Bergamo & Lombardy/NYC/NJ/London (and probably within 2 or 3 weeks the UK as a whole) & Madrid and why those very high mortality rates will not be repeated elsewhere. I.e. you need to be able to identify why things were bad in those places and why things were not bad in Sweden where they did not lockdown and be able to demonstrate that most places share characteristics with the latter and not the former. I don't think we are quite at that point yet and a lifting of restrictions would be in hope of it being safe rather than expectation. Although I haven't watched the interview Lowpe posted yet - that might give some insight into why the researcher concerned believes things went so badly in some places and why that will not be repeated elsewhere.

Just one other thing on taking a lead from Denmark/Germany/other places that start lifting restrictions. My understanding of the progression of the disease is that it takes 1-2 weeks to become symptomatic and another 1-2 weeks for those those symptoms to become severe enough for the person to require hospital treatment which is most likely the first point at which they actually get tested. So I think that it is only really from this point on for Denmark (if they started lifting things from the 15th) that you would start seeing cases increase. Of course as discussed above you have the example of Sweden who never locked down in the first place.

As was discussed a couple of days ago there seems to be evidence popping up that CV-19 may have been 'loose' in the US and parts of Europe quite a bit earlier than first thought and was running under the radar because no-one was testing. In the long term that is good news I guess as it is more suggestive of high levels of asymptomatic/unrecorded infections. In terms of lifting lockdown measures it might encourage some caution as one reading of it could be that you have a situation where much of your exponential infection curve is happening unobserved and infections levels are rising in the community until potentially you reach a tipping point where things start coming into view and taking off in terms of recorded cases and mortalities and these increases prove difficult to control (at least in the short term) because the 'iceberg' of infections below the level that you are actually observing has grown too large.

< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 5/6/2020 2:02:12 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6746
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 1:46:41 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22763
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
You know the argument about the lockdown causing secondary health problems?

I think we are there. There is anxiety breaking out all over. 8 year olds with insomnia. The moms calling in worried about their kids look like THEY need a psychiatrist. Palpitations, severe reflux with esophagitis. I am handing out omeprazole and famotidine like Christmas candies. I can't find anyone to do talk therapy so I can pass the baton a bit. The health system is suffering staggering economic losses, mostly because of loss of elective procedures. We have one medical assistant furloughed, the office RN who used to do the phone triage is farmed out to do COVID testing. Everybody wants a f'ing COVID blood test because they had a fever in January. I just want to get on sailing yacht and sail to Papaete or something...and I get seasick easy.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6747
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 1:48:03 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 22763
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I find this one a bit ridiculous.



Could he have quit because it was an adulterous affair? Are there morality clauses in England or perhaps secrecy concerns?

Didn't they make a movie about this subject? "No Sex Please, We're British"?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMmEGArPp8Q

He was obviously violating a long established British tradition!

warspite1

Correct. Only the lower classes have sex. Posh people get people to do this disgusting act for them.



I thank you for your candor. You give me an entirely new viewpoint on keeping the 'British end up'.


Ah, yes, Lord Mountbottom!

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 6748
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 1:51:50 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 20068
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
Updated as of May 5th

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/6/2020 1:52:53 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6749
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/6/2020 1:54:44 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6296
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You know the argument about the lockdown causing secondary health problems?

I think we are there. There is anxiety breaking out all over. 8 year olds with insomnia. The moms calling in worried about their kids look like THEY need a psychiatrist. Palpitations, severe reflux with esophagitis. I am handing out omeprazole and famotidine like Christmas candies. I can't find anyone to do talk therapy so I can pass the baton a bit. The health system is suffering staggering economic losses, mostly because of loss of elective procedures. We have one medical assistant furloughed, the office RN who used to do the phone triage is farmed out to do COVID testing. Everybody wants a f'ing COVID blood test because they had a fever in January. I just want to get on sailing yacht and sail to Papaete or something...and I get seasick easy.


I can't help but keep on thinking, "Where is Milo?" This screams like ideal conditions for his business talents. Surely it wouldn't take long for his lawyers Dewey ... to get quick approval from the FDA for use of sea urchin as a vaccine. Not to mention all those Quonset huts as temporary hospital wards.

Alfred

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 6750
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