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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/22/2020 11:35:12 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2794
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline
The numbers from Scotland make some grim reading. A third from people in care homes. Three quarters over 75.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.


The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

We now have the 'let's lock down our economy until it collapses so Trump won't get reelected' crowd throwing out the posit that perhaps lock down protesters should have to wave their right to medical treatment.

The obvious counter to that is positing that those who want to hide in their homes refusing to go back to work should have to sign away their 'right' to economic relief from their government.

Economic and physical well being are not easy things to balance and jingoistic approaches slamming one side or the other accomplish nothing more than raising the ire of the side with the opposing viewpoint.

It's probably clear to most with functional grey matter that localized approaches have varied widely with some erring way too heavily on the side of caution and others erring way too heavily on the cavalier side.

How do you balance things like the story coming out of PA about a consignment shop owner being prevented from selling children's clothes while Wal Mart and Target keep right on doing so? How about the overreaches by border line Nazi Governors who target religious liberty by disallowing drive in church services while allowing every fast food drive through in the state to remain open? That one, by the way, has already been stooped by a court order.

Nothing about this is easy.


I think your posts would improve if wrote them in all upper case. Or just select parts, with some emphasis? For example:

How do you balance things like the story coming out of PA about a consignment shop owner being prevented from selling children's clothes while WAL MART and TARGET keep right on doing so? How about the OVERREACHESby border line NAZI GovernorS who target RELIGIOUS LIBERTY by disallowing drive in church services while allowing every fast food drive through in the state to remain open? That one, by the way, has already been stooped by a court order.

I think that would generate the "je ne sais quoi" you're otherwise missing.



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5491
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:14:37 AM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2295
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe no fishing opener for Wiscons? Maybe stay at home for Memorial Day?
No events for Veterans at cemeteries!?

Evers Extends Wisconsin Stay-At-Home Order Until May 26
Gov. Tony Evers has extended Wisconsin’s stay-at-home order for another month.



Meanwhile in D.C. and Baltimore, meth clinics are open for business with lines around the block, needles to addicts, abortion industry is an essential service while some other medical services aren't happening, in D.C. pot stores are open. Hypocritical X infinity

States are letting out hardened criminals because it is too dangerous to be in prison but locking up the working class for being outdoors... Friends we live in a bizarro world....


< Message edited by SuluSea -- 4/23/2020 12:16:08 AM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 5492
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:14:39 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
This (in bold font, below) is absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.


The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

….


(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 5493
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:16:45 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 297
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.



On the bare face of it this statement seems deeply troubling. Around 50 million people died of Spanish Flu worldwide. 70-80M died in WW2. Lets say Covid-19 eventually gets to 5M deaths worldwide (it is currently at 0.18M). Even before we factor in population inflation, would today's deaths be 10+ times more important just because they are happening now rather than a century/80 years ago?

Going a little more towards what I think you were trying to say - was the loss of a life in the early 20th century really 10x less affecting for the family/loved ones of the deceased because people 100 years ago were so much more desensitized to premature death?

Getting closest to what I think you are saying (this relates more to the Spanish Flu deaths than those in WW2) do you think that the governments of the time were so much less caring of the welfare of their citizens that a death toll 10x higher than a deeply pessimistic Covid-19 prediction would have been equally acceptable?

Even that last suggestion is pretty extreme and requiring of further evidencing rather than a simple prima facie statement

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 5494
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:32:36 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25196
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Interesting that while Sweden has seen a 12% increase in weekly deaths, there has *not* been an overwhelming of non-covid/uncertain deaths. IIRC I believe they have done well in terms of making sure their health care system was not overwhelmed.


I'm not buying that apologia. Through their laissez-faire attitude, they let the virus into half of their Stockholm-area nursing homes. Extraordinary death rate in those most susceptible.

The population is being used as a guinea pig to further the pet theories of their state epidemiologist, whose ouster is being sought by most of the prominent academic medical minds in the country.

When an 85 year-old gets this thing, their death is acute or peracute. So voila! No strain on the system by having someone fight for their lives on a ventilator for 14 days if they die acutely.

Their cumulative death rate/M will be the proof in the pudding. Compared to Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland, they've done very poorly for themselves.

_____________________________


(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 5495
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:36:59 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 6525
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

People are sick but no doubt we've had epidemics before but I can't shake the feeling that this is another hoax in a long line of them perpetrated by the 'mainstream' media the last 3 and a half years.

We have rights given by our forefathers (the Framers of the Constitution) and ain't no one taken mine away.

Ben Franklin said it best..."This [the U.S. Constitution] is likely to be administered for a course of years and then end in despotism... when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other."





A wise man and seems like he would be fun company. He is on my list of 5 people from history to spend a evening with.


Why spend the evening? He would go to bed early - with a young lady, of course.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 5496
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:37:39 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 297
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe no fishing opener for Wiscons? Maybe stay at home for Memorial Day?
No events for Veterans at cemeteries!?

Evers Extends Wisconsin Stay-At-Home Order Until May 26
Gov. Tony Evers has extended Wisconsin’s stay-at-home order for another month.



Meanwhile in D.C. and Baltimore, meth clinics are open for business with lines around the block, needles to addicts,



Practically, heroin addicts using in the community are a massive at risk population - they are sharing drug paraphernalia, much more likely to be living with chronic underlying health conditions and much less able to adhere to social distancing (both due to their living conditions and because their addiction forces them onto the streets to get their next fix).

From a community perspective they are the demographic that is least possible to isolate/quarantine - particularly if you close down the one form of monitoring/control you have via their engagement with opioid replacement therapy or with needle exchange programs.

In terms of their own health outcomes whether they should be left to reap what they have sown is a moral judgement for you to make for yourself. But for epidemiological purposes it doesn't matter if a 'law-abiding' citizen catches the virus from their child bringing it back from school or from a junkie that has sneezed all over a cornershop counter a few hours prior. If you have a demographic that is predisposed to spread the virus you have to try and find a way to deal with it.

(in reply to SuluSea)
Post #: 5497
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:50:30 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 24785
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

And a further thought.....the people on this forum consistently show their intelligence and critical thinking. Can a bunch of you run for the various higher offices in your homelands? Being retired I would do the same, but having worked on 'Wall Street', albeit in the back office, I would not stand a snowball's chance......


While I play around with the notion occasionally, my wife has made it abundantly clear that she has no intention of being a politician's wife. So you can dispense with your "Chickenboy for President" bumper stickers I guess*.

*But she can't stop a write in ballot drive.

How about Emperor for Life?


What do I look like, Xi Jinping? Vladimir Putin? Kim jon Fat?

Chickenboy Man.

_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 5498
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:58:44 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 24785
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This sort of thing doesn't help either:

Chinese Agents Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U.S., Officials Say



quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I thought Pulitzer Prize winning was a valid reason to be highly critical of their writing given their horrendous track record with honesty going back decades.

During the Roman triumphs (parades celebrating military victories) they had someone tasked to stand at the general's ear whispering (paraphrased) "you are only mortal" so the accolades (ancient Pulitzer Prize) didn't go to his head.


Also because of pries and awards like that, reporters strive to outdo each other, get a scoop, and/or to try to increase their following. All that to make them feel important and relevant, instead of actually reporting the news. Walter Cronkite at least did not let his political leanings interfere with his reporting.


Sorry. Not sure what you guys are talking about here. What doesn't help? The rampant misinformation, from any source to any receiver. The article calling it out seemed fine. Sorry for being too terse to be clear. Misinformation sent to people's cell phones aiming to incite panic? Or the article looking into it?

Having read the article it seems a good piece of journalism commenting on and researching about what happened with these messages. This is apparently a new method of disseminating information, and quite worrying.

So what is the complaint?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/coronavirus-china-disinformation.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage



_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 5499
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 12:59:00 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 24785
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The part of this article I was able to read before the paywall popped up was reasonable but the editor of the NYT told his own newsroom they showed bias during the 2016 election. Like we needed him to tell us that. The NYT editorial board is a diversity check-list of Lefty lunatics.

American conservatives don't trust the NYT. Of course, there are the occasional "random acts of journalism" and the Times gets the best leaked government swamp stories

That's a keeper.

_____________________________


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 5500
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 1:10:29 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2794
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.



On the bare face of it this statement seems deeply troubling. Around 50 million people died of Spanish Flu worldwide. 70-80M died in WW2. Lets say Covid-19 eventually gets to 5M deaths worldwide (it is currently at 0.18M). Even before we factor in population inflation, would today's deaths be 10+ times more important just because they are happening now rather than a century/80 years ago?

Going a little more towards what I think you were trying to say - was the loss of a life in the early 20th century really 10x less affecting for the family/loved ones of the deceased because people 100 years ago were so much more desensitized to premature death?

Getting closest to what I think you are saying (this relates more to the Spanish Flu deaths than those in WW2) do you think that the governments of the time were so much less caring of the welfare of their citizens that a death toll 10x higher than a deeply pessimistic Covid-19 prediction would have been equally acceptable?

Even that last suggestion is pretty extreme and requiring of further evidencing rather than a simple prima facie statement


You've touched upon many of the key points.

Most obvious is the role of the state. Vastly different from the role of the state of today in its level of involvement in citizens lives.

Then there is the socio-economic aspect of health. Income, living conditions and access to medicine were quite strongly interlinked.

On top of that there is the social aspect.

ONS have a good page explaining it:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/causesofdeathover100years/2017-09-18

Infections dominate the charts for both men and women for all age groups prior to 1955.

In short, premature death via infection was a much more common cause of death for all age groups, effectively normalising it.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This (in bold font, below) is absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.


The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

….





Really? Then demonstrate it.

< Message edited by mind_messing -- 4/23/2020 1:14:37 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5501
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 1:21:17 AM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 730
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
How do you thinks the Feds would react to a bunch of 'ChickenBoy' write-ins? And how far would we have to run or hide from CB spouse to be somewhat safe?

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 5502
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 1:32:55 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm not buying that apologia. Through their laissez-faire attitude, they let the virus into half of their Stockholm-area nursing homes. Extraordinary death rate in those most susceptible.

The population is being used as a guinea pig to further the pet theories of their state epidemiologist, whose ouster is being sought by most of the prominent academic medical minds in the country.

When an 85 year-old gets this thing, their death is acute or peracute. So voila! No strain on the system by having someone fight for their lives on a ventilator for 14 days if they die acutely.

Their cumulative death rate/M will be the proof in the pudding. Compared to Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland, they've done very poorly for themselves.


To be clear, I think that Sweden's approach was ill-advised and the proof is in the pudding of their deaths being so much higher than the rest of Scandinavia.

It is just interesting that they didn't seem to have the cavalcade of knock on effects (at least as of late March) that other areas have.

Probably was also some overcompensation on my part to not be explicitly biased in calling out something "positive" about a country with a plan I do not agree with.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 5503
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:06:43 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 297
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.



On the bare face of it this statement seems deeply troubling. Around 50 million people died of Spanish Flu worldwide. 70-80M died in WW2. Lets say Covid-19 eventually gets to 5M deaths worldwide (it is currently at 0.18M). Even before we factor in population inflation, would today's deaths be 10+ times more important just because they are happening now rather than a century/80 years ago?

Going a little more towards what I think you were trying to say - was the loss of a life in the early 20th century really 10x less affecting for the family/loved ones of the deceased because people 100 years ago were so much more desensitized to premature death?

Getting closest to what I think you are saying (this relates more to the Spanish Flu deaths than those in WW2) do you think that the governments of the time were so much less caring of the welfare of their citizens that a death toll 10x higher than a deeply pessimistic Covid-19 prediction would have been equally acceptable?

Even that last suggestion is pretty extreme and requiring of further evidencing rather than a simple prima facie statement


You've touched upon many of the key points.

Most obvious is the role of the state. Vastly different from the role of the state of today in its level of involvement in citizens lives.

Then there is the socio-economic aspect of health. Income, living conditions and access to medicine were quite strongly interlinked.

On top of that there is the social aspect.

ONS have a good page explaining it:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/causesofdeathover100years/2017-09-18

Infections dominate the charts for both men and women for all age groups prior to 1955.

In short, premature death via infection was a much more common cause of death for all age groups, effectively normalising it.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This (in bold font, below) is absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.


The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

….





Really? Then demonstrate it.


Sorry mate I'm still not on board with what you are getting at.

Looking first at the graph of deaths - which as far as I can tell is showing base numbers of deaths and not deaths per capita - significant if you take into account that the 1911 census had the UK at 43 million people compared to 67 million today. If you ignore population growth you have a massive drop from the Spanish Flu years to the 'baseline' following years. For what you are saying to hold true I think you would need a graph going another 50-100 years back to show that the Spanish Flu death tolls were not a significant spike in the death tolls of preceding years. Looking at the years that followed they were well out of the ordinary even compared to the spikes around the Great Depression and WW2 and certainly compared to any fluctuations we have had in more 'living memory'.

In terms of causes of death again I don't think I agree. Say if you look at the infographic of contemporary causes of death for women - overwhelmingly due to cancer. If for whatever reason there was a large spike in total annual deaths of women from cancer do you think that the public and the government would simply shrug their shoulders and say that the increase was no cause for concern as that was what women normally died of anyway?

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 5504
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:20:54 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 297
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm not buying that apologia. Through their laissez-faire attitude, they let the virus into half of their Stockholm-area nursing homes. Extraordinary death rate in those most susceptible.

The population is being used as a guinea pig to further the pet theories of their state epidemiologist, whose ouster is being sought by most of the prominent academic medical minds in the country.

When an 85 year-old gets this thing, their death is acute or peracute. So voila! No strain on the system by having someone fight for their lives on a ventilator for 14 days if they die acutely.

Their cumulative death rate/M will be the proof in the pudding. Compared to Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland, they've done very poorly for themselves.


To be clear, I think that Sweden's approach was ill-advised and the proof is in the pudding of their deaths being so much higher than the rest of Scandinavia.

It is just interesting that they didn't seem to have the cavalcade of knock on effects (at least as of late March) that other areas have.

Probably was also some overcompensation on my part to not be explicitly biased in calling out something "positive" about a country with a plan I do not agree with.


For me the knock on effects will be the 'interesting' (if that is the right word for me to use) thing over the next year or so. From that perspective I don't think a great deal will be learnt from Scandinavia - their economies are not typical of Europe let alone the wider world.

From a European perspective I'm expecting the UK deaths to be higher than those in Italy/Spain/France as we have been far more relaxed in the way we have imposed restriction but the reckoning will come later on as we see whether by keeping that semblance of normality (in comparison to the much more draconian measures implemented in France/Spain/Italy) we have managed to keep our economy 'ticking over' and in a better place to recover once the worst of things are over.


(in reply to alanschu)
Post #: 5505
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:40:01 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
This is almost certainly agent provocateur stuff.



quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

No ****.







(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 5506
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:43:36 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Regarding your request (in both bold and italics, below), think about it.


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
……..


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This (in bold font, below) is absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.


The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

….





Really? Then demonstrate it.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/23/2020 2:55:28 AM >

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 5507
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:53:19 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 297
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is almost certainly agent provocateur stuff.




I think you might be onto something in terms of how that image has gone viral and ended up on my twitter feed well before it was posted on here. There are those both within and without the US who revel in the stereotype of the 'dumb American'. When an image fits with that narrative it tends to spread quickly through those channels. FWIW I am well aware that it does not represent the reality.

On the other hand I think that if you are seeing this image (and the various other similar ones that have been doing the rounds) as some kind of false flag operation by left wing activists then I think the most diplomatic thing I can say is that I'll leave you to it.

< Message edited by Sammy5IsAlive -- 4/23/2020 2:54:46 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5508
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:55:02 AM   
Canoerebel


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(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 5509
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:55:13 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2794
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.



On the bare face of it this statement seems deeply troubling. Around 50 million people died of Spanish Flu worldwide. 70-80M died in WW2. Lets say Covid-19 eventually gets to 5M deaths worldwide (it is currently at 0.18M). Even before we factor in population inflation, would today's deaths be 10+ times more important just because they are happening now rather than a century/80 years ago?

Going a little more towards what I think you were trying to say - was the loss of a life in the early 20th century really 10x less affecting for the family/loved ones of the deceased because people 100 years ago were so much more desensitized to premature death?

Getting closest to what I think you are saying (this relates more to the Spanish Flu deaths than those in WW2) do you think that the governments of the time were so much less caring of the welfare of their citizens that a death toll 10x higher than a deeply pessimistic Covid-19 prediction would have been equally acceptable?

Even that last suggestion is pretty extreme and requiring of further evidencing rather than a simple prima facie statement


You've touched upon many of the key points.

Most obvious is the role of the state. Vastly different from the role of the state of today in its level of involvement in citizens lives.

Then there is the socio-economic aspect of health. Income, living conditions and access to medicine were quite strongly interlinked.

On top of that there is the social aspect.

ONS have a good page explaining it:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/causesofdeathover100years/2017-09-18

Infections dominate the charts for both men and women for all age groups prior to 1955.

In short, premature death via infection was a much more common cause of death for all age groups, effectively normalising it.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This (in bold font, below) is absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.


The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

….





Really? Then demonstrate it.


Sorry mate I'm still not on board with what you are getting at.

Looking first at the graph of deaths - which as far as I can tell is showing base numbers of deaths and not deaths per capita - significant if you take into account that the 1911 census had the UK at 43 million people compared to 67 million today. If you ignore population growth you have a massive drop from the Spanish Flu years to the 'baseline' following years. For what you are saying to hold true I think you would need a graph going another 50-100 years back to show that the Spanish Flu death tolls were not a significant spike in the death tolls of preceding years. Looking at the years that followed they were well out of the ordinary even compared to the spikes around the Great Depression and WW2 and certainly compared to any fluctuations we have had in more 'living memory'.


Forget comparative death tolls between 1918 and today, not what I'm getting at.

What I'm exploring here is

1) What people died of; and
2) When

On point 2, see the chart at the end on child mortality. Remarkably different picture than today.

quote:

In terms of causes of death again I don't think I agree. Say if you look at the infographic of contemporary causes of death for women - overwhelmingly due to cancer. If for whatever reason there was a large spike in total annual deaths of women from cancer do you think that the public and the government would simply shrug their shoulders and say that the increase was no cause for concern as that was what women normally died of anyway?


Cancer only appears as the leading cause after 1945, which happens to coincide with the development of the NHS, and the elimination of the big infectious diseases - TB falls right off the chart after 1945. My medical history is rusty but that's around when the BCG vaccine was rolled out in a big way.

Examining the leading causes of death prior to 1945, you'll find that tuberculosis dominates.

Dying from an infection in the 1915-45 before old age was not a novelty (as Covid is now. For the majority of men and women up to around the 40-50 age mark, it was the biggest killer and just a fact of life.

As for the infant mortality, I'd warrant that there'd be a strong correlation with infant mortality and parental income.

Taken together, hence the "less value" statement. The interlink between British military concerns and public health is interesting reading. Lives and health lost to disease became increasingly more valuable in light of the military requirements of the conscript army needed following 1914.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 5510
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:03:29 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2794
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Regarding your request (in both bold and italics, below), think about it.


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
……..


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This (in bold font, below) is absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most of us love history, so that helps us keep this in perspective. While this is one of the gripping stories of our time it bears no resemblance to what our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced a century ago. They dealt with something like 40 million to 100 million Spanish flu deaths and a world war. Coronavirus mortality, in comparison, is an order of magnitude less, is projected to remain so, and most of us are safely at home or at work with plenty of food, power, entertainment, books, etc.

There's also the fact that originally this was projected to be exponentially more significant than its been or appears likely to be. Early on, as we've noted here many times, an Australian group came up with seven projections, the least of which called for 17 million deaths worldwide. Then there was a US estimate calling for 1.7 million deaths. Then came one for California alone to suffer 200k to 500k. Then the oft-sighted projection that the US would suffer 100k to 240k mortalities three weeks ago. Now, the estimates for the US have stabilized at around 60k to 70k. That's a great deal of death but so much fewer than early estimates and so much less than the Spanish flu...and the world survived that.

People are trying to foresee what the future holds and to get ready. Early projections will probably be about as accurate as they were for this round. But mankind is getting a grip on this, through lots of trial and error and guesswork and deductive reasoning and testing. We flattened the curve, which was the dominant approach advocated early on. And it's good that we'll now test various measures of easing, while many/most hospitals have capacity to deal with flare ups. The knowledge gained will be useful when/if the next round comes.


The world was a different place in 1918. Life, to be blunt, was worth less than it is now.

….





Really? Then demonstrate it.




No need for me to think, if it is so absolutely and demonstrably untrue, then I would love to see the evidence of the untruth!


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is almost certainly agent provocateur stuff.




I think you might be onto something in terms of how that image has gone viral and ended up on my twitter feed well before it was posted on here. There are those both within and without the US who revel in the stereotype of the 'dumb American'. When an image fits with that narrative it tends to spread quickly through those channels. FWIW I am well aware that it does not represent the reality.

On the other hand I think that if you are seeing this image (and the various other similar ones that have been doing the rounds) as some kind of false flag operation by left wing activists then I think the most diplomatic thing I can say is that I'll leave you to it.


I don't think you were following the thread when WITP:AE's "House Un-American Activities" Committee was on the go. I got off with a charge of adulation of Chairman Mao

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5511
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:05:51 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 297
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


Cancer only appears as the leading cause after 1945, which happens to coincide with the development of the NHS, and the elimination of the big infectious diseases - TB falls right off the chart after 1945. My medical history is rusty but that's around when the BCG vaccine was rolled out in a big way.

Examining the leading causes of death prior to 1945, you'll find that tuberculosis dominates.

Dying from an infection in the 1915-45 before old age was not a novelty (as Covid is now. For the majority of men and women up to around the 40-50 age mark, it was the biggest killer and just a fact of life.

As for the infant mortality, I'd warrant that there'd be a strong correlation with infant mortality and parental income.

Taken together, hence the "less value" statement. The interlink between British military concerns and public health is interesting reading. Lives and health lost to disease became increasingly more valuable in light of the military requirements of the conscript army needed following 1914.


I think we might be talking at cross-purposes? What I am saying is that a death from cancer in 2020 is the same 'fact of life' that death from an infectious disease was in 1917. IMHO If we saw an equivalent leap in cancer deaths as was seen with deaths from infectious disease in 1918-19 we would be jumping around far more than we currently are for Coronavirus.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 5512
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:08:00 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Infant mortality is considerably higher today than it was 100 years ago, and it's mostly elective. At least half the population and basically all the media have rationalized it to the point that they don't think about it in terms of humans dying. So is life worth more today than it was a century ago? No.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 5513
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:16:34 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 297
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Infant mortality is considerably higher today than it was 100 years ago, and it's mostly elective. At least half the population and basically all the media have rationalized it to the point that they don't think about it in terms of humans dying. So is life worth more today than it was a century ago? No.


On that issue I'd suggest we not go there. Plenty of very deeply held and emotive opinions on both sides that essentially come down to where you see 'human life' as beginning. None of which really pertains to the present situation.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5514
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:18:46 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
I agree. I made the point in reference to an assertion that life is worth more today than it was a century ago. You can see why some would disagree. We can leave it there.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 5515
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:52:08 AM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Amid coronavirus outbreak, Tyson Foods closes its largest pork plant
9:46 p.m.


https://theweek.com/speedreads/910439/amid-coronavirus-outbreak-tyson-foods-closes-largest-pork-plant



"yson Foods on Wednesday announced that it will close its Waterloo, Iowa, pork plant — the company's largest — due to the coronavirus quickly spreading through its employee ranks.

The plant employs 2,800 workers, and they will continue to receive pay during the closure. There are 374 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Black Hawk County, and local health officials have linked 182 of those cases to the Waterloo plant. Tyson said all employees will get tested for COVID-19 later this week, and that will help them decide when to reopen the plant."

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5516
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:54:48 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Nearly all NY coronavirus patients suffered underlying health issue, study finds
Published 1 hour ago

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nearly-all-ny-coronavirus-patients-suffered-underlying-health-issue-study-finds

"A new study by a medical journal revealed that most of the people in New York City who were hospitalized due to coronavirus had one or more underlying health issues.

Health records from 5,700 patients hospitalized within the Northwell Health system -- which housed the most patients in the country throughout the pandemic -- showed that 94 percent of patients had more than one disease other than COVID-19, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)."

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 5517
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:56:36 AM   
alanschu

 

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edit: nvm

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5518
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:57:08 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Sweden Health Agency Withdraws Controversial Coronavirus Report
Apr 22, 2020,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#7a6d0ab74349

"he Swedish Public Health Agency made international headlines yesterday by estimating that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1. Less than 24 hours later, the Agency has taken a dramatic u-turn and withdrawn the report.

The decision was announced via Twitter: "We have discovered an error in the report and so the authors are currently going through the material again. We will republish the report as soon as it is ready."

Error not explained, yet"

_____________________________


“Being intelligent is no guarantee against being stupid”





(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 5519
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:57:27 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Amid coronavirus outbreak, Tyson Foods closes its largest pork plant
9:46 p.m.


https://theweek.com/speedreads/910439/amid-coronavirus-outbreak-tyson-foods-closes-largest-pork-plant



"yson Foods on Wednesday announced that it will close its Waterloo, Iowa, pork plant — the company's largest — due to the coronavirus quickly spreading through its employee ranks.

The plant employs 2,800 workers, and they will continue to receive pay during the closure. There are 374 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Black Hawk County, and local health officials have linked 182 of those cases to the Waterloo plant. Tyson said all employees will get tested for COVID-19 later this week, and that will help them decide when to reopen the plant."


Alberta had one where a meat packing plant had been a vector for transmission as well.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 5520
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