Cautious interim result of a mass investigation in one of the largest clusters in Germany:
14% have gone through the infection and show antibodies and not, as previously assumed, 5%.
Therefore, the death rate can be corrected considerably downwards: to about 0.37%
Yeah, this virus seemed to be a man with education and taste, as Jagger said.
if it's to good to be true than it isn't true.
Probably a severe systematic error — they claimed : "An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined".
Problem: there is no specific antibody test for Covid-19 developed yet — the test reacts probably on all corona-types including complete meaningless crap (at least four other humanpathogenic but harmless virus)
The study already disappeared from the official website of the state. Rise and Fall of an overambitious professor.
Crap. Idiots. Mea culpa.
So, o.37 % fatality is dead as s dodo. :-(
Well, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this. Thinking that there are many more than we know out there is still the right way to go, even if we can't yet test for them. I have been an advocate all along for a lower than advertised mortality, based on a lot of different factors including the Diamond Princess, the Korean rates, and some of the smaller more isolated countries that have done a load of testing (Faroes, Iceland, etc).
The higher rates seem correlated to areas when symptoms cannot be treated effectively, where it gets into more vulnerable population primarily, and when testing is not getting the mild and asymptomatic cases outside of hospitals into the records.
The whole affair turns into an entertaining spectacle of power and politics.
We have here an equally ambitious and young up-and-coming professor of virology who has undoubtedly done a lot to contain it - actually ran from door to door and probably talked to more patients than anyone else.
We have a prime minister (goveneur) with ambitions for the chancellorship.
So far, so good. Now a former editor-in-chief of the worst Yeĺlowpress comes into play, along with another dubious PR professional (the husband of our former Foreign Minister Westerwelle), who unselfishly suggested to our virologist that he publish his results through their agency "Storymachine".
All the other violinists (edit: just a nice example of this autocorrection, read: virolists had been in the media daily, and next to them even the Minister of Health faded away.
Shortly before Easter our hero is now allowed to present first preliminary results, probably he hadn't slept for three nights.
A meagre paper, a stammered conference... and now the media professionals take over and create the total media spin: Everything harmless, we can finally talk about the lifting of the contact ban etc.
Right before a summer Easter weekend, you transfer preliminary test results, which are questionable in terms of methodology, to the whole country - yellow press.
Thousends of misinformed citicens have now a reason to suspend not only the contact ban, but risk all achievements - turning! the curve. That's the point - their test couldn't difference between Covid-19 and the common cold for example! When testing with old blood samples from last year you got positive results too, but there was no Covid-19 at that time... scheiße.
Otherwise I completely agree with you, the virus is much less letal than we thought earlier, but probably more than one in 300 (o.37 %). The thing was the irresponsible communication and spreading through all media, while so far everything was very very serious.
Thx god I added a 'cautioness' in my reporting.
< Message edited by Wuffer -- 4/10/2020 9:49:37 AM >