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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 4:06:42 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 25001
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

_____________________________


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4201
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 4:14:01 AM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

quote:


"But our FDA has a system where, using these old regulatory rules, it insisted on sanctioning the test," Makary continued. "And we lost precious time when one of the original scientists submitted an application and was told that he had to submit it also by paper mail with a CD-ROM with the files burned on it."



To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4202
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 4:34:36 AM   
Nomad

 

Posts: 4707
Joined: 9/5/2001
From: West Yellowstone, Montana
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1

_____________________________


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4203
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 4:57:47 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 25001
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

quote:


"But our FDA has a system where, using these old regulatory rules, it insisted on sanctioning the test," Makary continued. "And we lost precious time when one of the original scientists submitted an application and was told that he had to submit it also by paper mail with a CD-ROM with the files burned on it."



To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.

The point of the article is they (in the US) did not get to begin deploying tests because they had to go through red tape which included archaic requirements.

_____________________________


(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 4204
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 5:59:08 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2138
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
The missus is a nurse practitioner at one of the top three hospitals in Seoul (and therefore Korea). Although her department is pediatric neurosurgery, she said Covid treatment is mainly based on symptoms (duh). She said all admitted Covid patients "get HIV drugs or hydroxychloroquine." Ones with pneumonia-like symptoms get broad-spectrum antibiotics. The ones in very serious shape get "plasma exchange therapy," which has been 100% successful (small numbers, though). Anyway, still zero deaths in Seoul.

And I'm off to have a few pints at an outdoor venue with a mate. Good luck to you all and may your respective governments not infringe your liberties too deeply.

EDITS: Couple of clarifications on the terminology.

Cheers,
CB

< Message edited by CaptBeefheart -- 4/10/2020 6:11:04 AM >


_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4205
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:45:03 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

The missus is a nurse practitioner at one of the top three hospitals in Seoul (and therefore Korea). Although her department is pediatric neurosurgery, she said Covid treatment is mainly based on symptoms (duh). She said all admitted Covid patients "get HIV drugs or hydroxychloroquine." Ones with pneumonia-like symptoms get broad-spectrum antibiotics. The ones in very serious shape get "plasma exchange therapy," which has been 100% successful (small numbers, though). Anyway, still zero deaths in Seoul.

And I'm off to have a few pints at an outdoor venue with a mate. Good luck to you all and may your respective governments not infringe your liberties too deeply.

EDITS: Couple of clarifications on the terminology.

Cheers,
CB


Thanks! This is what I imagined. I think the European, American and some other Asian countries are way behind this kind of thinking on symptomatic treatment. The HIV drugs, the famous hydroxychloroquine, and the pneumonia treatment with antibiotics. Plasma change of course would be amazing if we knew who had already had it here. Sadly, the serology tests are still not accurate enough to mass test.

A friend who had it was treated by her brother, a GP here, and he at first just advised rest and paracetamol, but once she began to get some difficult lung symptoms he prescribed antibiotics and it cleared up, so now she is recovering well. It's this mid-level, highly monitored treatment of symptoms that could lead to so many cases not getting to ICU and cytokine overload.

Enjoy that pint. Very envious.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 4206
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:47:49 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

quote:


"But our FDA has a system where, using these old regulatory rules, it insisted on sanctioning the test," Makary continued. "And we lost precious time when one of the original scientists submitted an application and was told that he had to submit it also by paper mail with a CD-ROM with the files burned on it."



To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.

The point of the article is they (in the US) did not get to begin deploying tests because they had to go through red tape which included archaic requirements.


Red tape has followed this in so many places, not just the US. The sereology tests here are said to be delayed until mid-may, the claim being they're not accurate enough yet. Probably the same as Wuffer mentioned in Germany.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/10/2020 11:05:13 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4207
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:52:28 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1


Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Nomad)
Post #: 4208
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:58:29 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1933
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
This is looking increasingly like many of the discussions you saw in the UK over Brexit!

My old working life (before kids) was in UK-EU haulage and UK-EU freight ferries.

I was constantly amazed at the expertise level that people claimed on this which was based on nothing more than newspaper articles that reinforced their beliefs.

It makes it very hard to have a discussion on stuff like this and remain within the guidelines.

But overall, this is going much more civily than a Brexit discussion!

Well done all!

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4209
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:01:16 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


So I think the question is now - where next?

It seems to me that in Europe and the US we have got on top of the epidemic through 'brute force'. But that strategy is not sustainable economically. It seems to be generally accepted that a vaccine is likely still a year away. What happens in the meantime?



This is the hammer. The comments about this being like the flu so why close the entire economy forget that we've essentially escaped the catastrophe this would have caused if allowed to run through the populace unchecked. Like millions instead of thousands of deaths.

quote:



Where do people think the 'holding pattern' is? The balance between economic recovery and avoiding a return to day 1 of an epidemic curve.

South Korea seems to have done a good job of keeping on top of things. But some of the strategies they have used would seem to be anathema to the European/American public. To what extent do we feel comfortable with that kind of heavy monitoring and involvement from 'big government'?

In more general terms (setting aside the public health specifics) how are we going to deal with what looks likely to be a global recession, if not an equivalent of the Great Depression of the 1930s? Do we carry on as normal in the belief that the free market will right itself naturally? Or will we need to make a paradigm shift in our beliefs about the economy and society?


South Korea is getting this all right. They slammed the hammer on Daegu, case tracked like crazy there and everywhere else, treat symptoms effectively and appropriately to limit severe cases, and now are in the Dance phase. This involves having most things open, including all major industry, and continuing to test, track, and isolate outbreaks. Some restrictions on larger gatherings or even small ones in closed quarters stay in place.

This is the article linked before with a ton of info about these phases and their outcomes. Now dated but still relevant.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Interestingly there is a lot of talk about my industry, education, being opened earlier than some others. I'm not confident that's a good idea, mostly because kids are often asymptomatic or mild symptomatic carriers/transmitters of this one. My friend caught it from her son, aged 1, who caught it in the nursery where our daughter goes as well. We'd pulled her three days before they did, but of course our family all could have had it with mild or no symptoms already too.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/10/2020 7:05:18 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 4210
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:08:38 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

This is looking increasingly like many of the discussions you saw in the UK over Brexit!

My old working life (before kids) was in UK-EU haulage and UK-EU freight ferries.

I was constantly amazed at the expertise level that people claimed on this which was based on nothing more than newspaper articles that reinforced their beliefs.



And no matter how extreme those are, you can find some support for them out there, right?

quote:



It makes it very hard to have a discussion on stuff like this and remain within the guidelines.

But overall, this is going much more civily than a Brexit discussion!

Well done all!


A few bumps, but overall, especially at times that invite more international participation, the thread is very productive. I notice no conflict at all between the hours of 06:00 GMT and about 10:00 GMT.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 4211
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:24:24 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Good news!

Cautious interim result of a mass investigation in one of the largest clusters in Germany:

14% have gone through the infection and show antibodies and not, as previously assumed, 5%.


Therefore, the death rate can be corrected considerably downwards: to about 0.37%

Yeah, this virus seemed to be a man with education and taste, as Jagger said.
German source:
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-in-heinsberg-jeder-siebte-koennte-immun-sein-a-14bd9e0e-0c7e-4775-a8b0-1611ececd870-amp?sara_ecid=soci_upd_KsBF0AFjflf0DZCxpPYDCQgO1dEMph&__twitter_impression=true





Bad news.

if it's to good to be true than it isn't true.
Probably a severe systematic error — they claimed : "An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined".

Problem: there is no specific antibody test for Covid-19 developed yet — the test reacts probably on all corona-types including complete meaningless crap (at least four other humanpathogenic but harmless virus)

The study already disappeared from the official website of the state. Rise and Fall of an overambitious professor.

Crap. Idiots. Mea culpa.
So, o.37 % fatality is dead as s dodo. :-(




Well, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this. Thinking that there are many more than we know out there is still the right way to go, even if we can't yet test for them. I have been an advocate all along for a lower than advertised mortality, based on a lot of different factors including the Diamond Princess, the Korean rates, and some of the smaller more isolated countries that have done a load of testing (Faroes, Iceland, etc).

The higher rates seem correlated to areas when symptoms cannot be treated effectively, where it gets into more vulnerable population primarily, and when testing is not getting the mild and asymptomatic cases outside of hospitals into the records.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/10/2020 7:34:09 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 4212
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:33:54 AM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5397
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?


A cry-baby no doubt.

The US as we knew them (pre-2008) are finished. You want to stop historical processes and that is not going to work eh. Yes, sure, an asteriod could hit Shanghai tomorrow. Or a mega tsunami swallow the whole US continental landmass for that matter. Or the aliens... or whatever...

The basic historical process is that capitalism has already migrated to the east. Do I need to say it? Power and strenght are where capitalism flourishes (China as we speak, are you following me, captain knucklehead?). Many people don't get this massive geopolitical shift going on under our very eyes. We are living interesting times no doubt.

There were various US. Pre civil war, you had a nation of free farmers. Post civil war, a robber barons' industrialised state. After FDR and WW2, the golden age, a nation with flourishing working and middle classes ;)

Well, reaganomics brought in fact the future proletarisation of these two classes (the middle class is in fact going to extinction as we speak). On the other hand US plutocrats made obscene fortunes, as per the plan eh.

So you're talking about an US that do not exist anymore in the first place. It's finito, kaputt, over. You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour. No Chinese wall can stop this drive rofl Manufactures are not coming back, you naive souls... unless you accept Chinese (or Vietnamese, Mexican etc) wages. The most ironic fact is that ONLY socialism would have stopped this historical process. You're gunna luv capitalism's tendencies (which you do not even understand).

I have not the slightest doubt that your oligarchic masters will keep thriving selling their slices of paper until the world says "hey man, we don't want your slices of paper anymore" (munching their caviar with their Chinese, European counterparts), but the conditions that made possible post FDR's golden age have already disappeared: a healthy, sane working and middle classes. That WAS the real backbone of US prosperity and grandeur.

Oh, the last sign (of a serie of many signs). China knocks US from top spot in global patent race...

But perhaps the most clear sign of the state of decay is Mr Maduro's affair. It is well known that the Caribbean Sea always was a vital strategic zone. Well, looks like the US cannot even impose their will on this critical area (their hilarious puppet Guaidollar that is). Houston, we have a problem! And funny ignorant captain knucklehead here wants to force the Chinese to pay trillions HAHAHAHAHA poor troll who's not understood anything... keep braying, bigmouth, you're hilarious!


_____________________________

a nu cheeki breeki iv damke

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4213
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 9:19:12 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?


A cry-baby no doubt.

The US as we knew them (pre-2008) are finished. You want to stop historical processes and that is not going to work eh. Yes, sure, an asteriod could hit Shanghai tomorrow. Or a mega tsunami swallow the whole US continental landmass for that matter. Or the aliens... or whatever...

The basic historical process is that capitalism has already migrated to the east. Do I need to say it? Power and strenght are where capitalism flourishes (China as we speak, are you following me, captain knucklehead?). Many people don't get this massive geopolitical shift going on under our very eyes. We are living interesting times no doubt.

There were various US. Pre civil war, you had a nation of free farmers. Post civil war, a robber barons' industrialised state. After FDR and WW2, the golden age, a nation with flourishing working and middle classes ;)

Well, reaganomics brought in fact the future proletarisation of these two classes (the middle class is in fact going to extinction as we speak). On the other hand US plutocrats made obscene fortunes, as per the plan eh.

So you're talking about an US that do not exist anymore in the first place. It's finito, kaputt, over. You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour. No Chinese wall can stop this drive rofl Manufactures are not coming back, you naive souls... unless you accept Chinese (or Vietnamese, Mexican etc) wages. The most ironic fact is that ONLY socialism would have stopped this historical process. You're gunna luv capitalism's tendencies (which you do not even understand).

I have not the slightest doubt that your oligarchic masters will keep thriving selling their slices of paper until the world says "hey man, we don't want your slices of paper anymore" (munching their caviar with their Chinese, European counterparts), but the conditions that made possible post FDR's golden age have already disappeared: a healthy, sane working and middle classes. That WAS the real backbone of US prosperity and grandeur.

Oh, the last sign (of a serie of many signs). China knocks US from top spot in global patent race...

But perhaps the most clear sign of the state of decay is Mr Maduro's affair. It is well known that the Caribbean Sea always was a vital strategic zone. Well, looks like the US cannot even impose their will on this critical area (their hilarious puppet Guaidollar that is). Houston, we have a problem! And funny ignorant captain knucklehead here wants to force the Chinese to pay trillions HAHAHAHAHA poor troll who's not understood anything... keep braying, bigmouth, you're hilarious.


There is no need to insult anybody.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 4214
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 9:24:31 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1933
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
I don't think its meant as an insult.

Its certainly thought provoking.



_____________________________


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Post #: 4215
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 9:28:27 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
quote:

captain knucklehead


Is that not insulting?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 4216
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 9:39:01 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1933
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
Not if you look at the way he's been describing other people no

Look, I'm assuming its a "if you give it, then you have to take it" kinda thing going on here.

_____________________________


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Post #: 4217
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 9:47:02 AM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Good news!

Cautious interim result of a mass investigation in one of the largest clusters in Germany:

14% have gone through the infection and show antibodies and not, as previously assumed, 5%.


Therefore, the death rate can be corrected considerably downwards: to about 0.37%

Yeah, this virus seemed to be a man with education and taste, as Jagger said.
German source:
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-in-heinsberg-jeder-siebte-koennte-immun-sein-a-14bd9e0e-0c7e-4775-a8b0-1611ececd870-amp?sara_ecid=soci_upd_KsBF0AFjflf0DZCxpPYDCQgO1dEMph&__twitter_impression=true





Bad news.

if it's to good to be true than it isn't true.
Probably a severe systematic error — they claimed : "An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined".

Problem: there is no specific antibody test for Covid-19 developed yet — the test reacts probably on all corona-types including complete meaningless crap (at least four other humanpathogenic but harmless virus)

The study already disappeared from the official website of the state. Rise and Fall of an overambitious professor.

Crap. Idiots. Mea culpa.
So, o.37 % fatality is dead as s dodo. :-(




Well, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this. Thinking that there are many more than we know out there is still the right way to go, even if we can't yet test for them. I have been an advocate all along for a lower than advertised mortality, based on a lot of different factors including the Diamond Princess, the Korean rates, and some of the smaller more isolated countries that have done a load of testing (Faroes, Iceland, etc).

The higher rates seem correlated to areas when symptoms cannot be treated effectively, where it gets into more vulnerable population primarily, and when testing is not getting the mild and asymptomatic cases outside of hospitals into the records.



The whole affair turns into an entertaining spectacle of power and politics.

We have here an equally ambitious and young up-and-coming professor of virology who has undoubtedly done a lot to contain it - actually ran from door to door and probably talked to more patients than anyone else.

We have a prime minister (goveneur) with ambitions for the chancellorship.

So far, so good. Now a former editor-in-chief of the worst Yeĺlowpress comes into play, along with another dubious PR professional (the husband of our former Foreign Minister Westerwelle), who unselfishly suggested to our virologist that he publish his results through their agency "Storymachine".



All the other violinists (edit: just a nice example of this autocorrection, read: virolists had been in the media daily, and next to them even the Minister of Health faded away.

Shortly before Easter our hero is now allowed to present first preliminary results, probably he hadn't slept for three nights.

A meagre paper, a stammered conference... and now the media professionals take over and create the total media spin: Everything harmless, we can finally talk about the lifting of the contact ban etc.

Right before a summer Easter weekend, you transfer preliminary test results, which are questionable in terms of methodology, to the whole country - yellow press.

Thousends of misinformed citicens have now a reason to suspend not only the contact ban, but risk all achievements - turning! the curve. That's the point - their test couldn't difference between Covid-19 and the common cold for example! When testing with old blood samples from last year you got positive results too, but there was no Covid-19 at that time... scheiße.

Otherwise I completely agree with you, the virus is much less letal than we thought earlier, but probably more than one in 300 (o.37 %). The thing was the irresponsible communication and spreading through all media, while so far everything was very very serious.
Thx god I added a 'cautioness' in my reporting.

< Message edited by Wuffer -- 4/10/2020 9:49:37 AM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4218
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:00:50 AM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7339
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From: St. Petersburg, Florida, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


especially at times that invite more international participation


Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.


_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4219
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:05:04 AM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 2912
Joined: 10/28/2013
From: Glasgow, Scotland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


especially at times that invite more international participation


Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.



Jeez Hans, when did you become such a...what's the term again? Snowflake?

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 4220
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:07:22 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1933
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
If I'm not civil to people, I don't expect a civil response.

Just saying.

_____________________________


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Post #: 4221
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:18:50 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Spain report.

396 new deaths reported today, a sharp drop from previous days. Today's totals aren't included in the charts, yet.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/10/2020 10:56:50 AM >

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Post #: 4222
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:26:08 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1933
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

_____________________________


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Post #: 4223
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:28:59 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Univ. of Washington graph for today.

New deaths reported is above projection but within the margin of error. That seems to be the norm for the European countries (notably not the UK), as we've discussed in here. Not as much confidence in this source for this continent as for the US.

Could the problem (assuming there is one) be the model, an error in data included or excluded, or how the host country reports?




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 4224
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:29:20 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 42856
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1


Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.
warspite1

I read the article....

Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

The US failed to learn from the UK. The UK had a head start on everyone, was the world's first industrialised country and thought the sun would never set. Even as countries, hungry to compete - began to encroach and then take over from the UK, the warning signs weren't heeded.

Other countries learned, and improved - they did things better, more cheaply and...... USA (and the west generally) saw it happen - hell they were the beneficiaries of the UK's seeming inability to react.

Then what happened to the self-satisfied UK, happened to the equally bloated west, as Asia awoke - led by Japan. Massively successful corporations like General Motors having more people on the pension roll than were actually making cars.

Sure, America can hark back to better times - but if that harking back is to be turned into practical solutions to turn things around its going to take more than a few wistful memories of the USA's impressive response to Pearl.


< Message edited by warspite1 -- 4/10/2020 10:31:05 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4225
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:36:13 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
New York is near peak.

The Univ. of Washington projection is almost right on.

It looks like U. Wash. updated the NY projection through yesterday's tally, as shown by the solid line. If adjusted daily to reflect actual numbers, it should be that much more up to date/reliable.

Margin of error for NY remains pretty significant. Death toll projected overall for this state is significantly lower than it was last weekend.





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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/10/2020 10:58:11 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4226
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:47:07 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Univ. of Washington projection for the US. On the 9th, reported new deaths were less than projected, by a bit.

While the NY projection seems to have been re-calibrated through the 9th, the US projection looks like it was last updated on the 7th. Since then, the projections and daily reports have been close.

As posted last night, Dr. Fauci seemed to rely on this source for his own projection comments yesterday.




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4227
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:49:18 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1933
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
I have to admit Dan, I'd be a lot happier with these predictions when we have a lot more data.

But it does look encouraging.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4228
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 10:53:22 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
The Univ. of Washington track record for the US graphs (but not European) is strong. Dr. Fauci is using it, as noted last night and last week. He's in the spotlight under great scrutiny, so presumably he's both cautious and confident. The press seems comfortable with it too. So there's a measure of confidence far beyond what I could contribute.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/10/2020 11:16:38 AM >

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 4229
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 11:10:54 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14046
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

A few bumps, but overall, especially at times that invite more international participation, the thread is very productive. I notice no conflict at all between the hours of 06:00 GMT and about 10:00 GMT.


Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.



I think you only copied a portion of my statement. I edited it for you. It's not intended to be offensive. Just observatory.

I also noticed the timecode on your post, GMT.






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< Message edited by obvert -- 4/10/2020 11:11:36 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 4230
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