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RE: OT: Corona virus

 
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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 1:30:28 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 307
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
I think we are now moving into the next phase of this. Tracking day-to-day cases/deaths will now start to give us increasingly good news - something to be celebrated :).

So I think the question is now - where next?

It seems to me that in Europe and the US we have got on top of the epidemic through 'brute force'. But that strategy is not sustainable economically. It seems to be generally accepted that a vaccine is likely still a year away. What happens in the meantime?

Where do people think the 'holding pattern' is? The balance between economic recovery and avoiding a return to day 1 of an epidemic curve.

South Korea seems to have done a good job of keeping on top of things. But some of the strategies they have used would seem to be anathema to the European/American public. To what extent do we feel comfortable with that kind of heavy monitoring and involvement from 'big government'?

In more general terms (setting aside the public health specifics) how are we going to deal with what looks likely to be a global recession, if not an equivalent of the Great Depression of the 1930s? Do we carry on as normal in the belief that the free market will right itself naturally? Or will we need to make a paradigm shift in our beliefs about the economy and society?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4171
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 1:31:34 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wimp.



Yes, But I will get with a woman that's into it!

Elvis explains it...

"Polk Salad Annie"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4csFnpZXek

_____________________________


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4172
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 1:43:51 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Hospitals Paid Extra to List Patients as COVID19 & 3X as Much if the Patient on Ventilator
April 9, 2020


https://principia-scientific.org/hospitals-paid-extra-to-list-patients-as-covid19-3x-as-much-if-the-patient-on-ventilator/

"his was after Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota physician and Republican state senator, told a local station he received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus.

Dr. Jensen also disclosed that hospitals are paid more if they list patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis. And hospitals get paid THREE TIMES AS MUCH if the patient then goes on a ventilator.

Senator Dr. Scott Jensen: Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do."

_____________________________


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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4173
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 1:47:59 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Horowitz: Dr. Birx: ‘We’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality’
April 8, 2020

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-dr-birx-admits-overcounting-covid-19-deaths-heart-attacks-mysteriously-plummet/

"Yesterday, Dr. Deborah Birx finally let the secret out during the daily press conference in response to a reporter’s question. “I think in this country, we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality,” said Dr. Birx, who along with Dr. Anthony Fauci has become the face of this push for a national lockdown.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.”

“The intent is if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” concluded Birx."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/10/2020 2:52:47 AM >


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Post #: 4174
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 1:54:05 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/nearly-90percent-of-people-hospitalized-for-covid-19-have-underlying-conditions-says-cdc/ar-BB12pf0p?li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."

_____________________________


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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4175
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 1:57:51 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/nearly-90percent-of-people-hospitalized-for-covid-19-have-underlying-conditions-says-cdc/ar-BB12pf0p?li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."


Do you know how this and the previous post compare to Influenza mortality rates?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4176
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 1:58:20 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Good questions, Sammy. I concur with your thoughts.

Regarding how do we set about resuming, I wrote several days back that in the US, I think we'll probably do so when we think we have sufficient medical capacity to handle any likely localized outbreaks. That should be by May 1 or a bit thereafter in many states. We'll err on the side of caution, for good reason. Some restrictions will be easier to relax than others.

I doubt America will be ready to really move forward until the situation in the NYC area is under control. Judging from the U. Washington projections, that should be by the end of this month. Here's hoping for success!

Everyone will watch carefully as pathfinder states like Denmark and Austria ease up on restrictions in the near future. How that goes will be critical.

I am not comfortable measuring financial trends but I think there's a chance many economies will roar back to life, creating a mini-boom for a bit. Long term, though, repercussions from this will ripple throughout our economy and presumable many others. Inflation is a major concern. The USA is giving significant sums to many taxpayers and loans that are really grants to small businesses. A lot of easily obtained cash is going to hit a needy population. Will inflation ensure or depression?



quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

I think we are now moving into the next phase of this. Tracking day-to-day cases/deaths will now start to give us increasingly good news - something to be celebrated :).

So I think the question is now - where next?

It seems to me that in Europe and the US we have got on top of the epidemic through 'brute force'. But that strategy is not sustainable economically. It seems to be generally accepted that a vaccine is likely still a year away. What happens in the meantime?

Where do people think the 'holding pattern' is? The balance between economic recovery and avoiding a return to day 1 of an epidemic curve.

South Korea seems to have done a good job of keeping on top of things. But some of the strategies they have used would seem to be anathema to the European/American public. To what extent do we feel comfortable with that kind of heavy monitoring and involvement from 'big government'?

In more general terms (setting aside the public health specifics) how are we going to deal with what looks likely to be a global recession, if not an equivalent of the Great Depression of the 1930s? Do we carry on as normal in the belief that the free market will right itself naturally? Or will we need to make a paradigm shift in our beliefs about the economy and society?


(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 4177
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:02:35 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
But some of the business and personal expenses are fixed with no money to offset their losses. But yes, there probably will be a mini boom at the restaurants and bars, among others.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4178
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:07:49 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21096
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Presumably, this means Dr. Fauci has a measure of confidence in the Univ. of Washington projections.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4179
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:11:32 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
A Human Coronavirus Responsible for the Common Cold Massively Kills Dendritic Cells but Not Monocytes

2012 July
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/

"Human coronaviruses are associated with upper respiratory tract infections that occasionally spread to the lungs and other organs.

Although airway epithelial cells represent an important target for infection, the respiratory epithelium is also composed of an elaborate network of dendritic cells (DCs) that are essential sentinels of the immune system, sensing pathogens and presenting foreign antigens to T lymphocytes. "

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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4180
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:12:35 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/nearly-90percent-of-people-hospitalized-for-covid-19-have-underlying-conditions-says-cdc/ar-BB12pf0p?li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."


Do you know how this and the previous post compare to Influenza mortality rates?



I would like to know that.

_____________________________


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(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4181
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:14:14 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

The World Health Organizations says: "Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19."


_____________________________


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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4182
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:15:08 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
I just saw this in reference to the economy:

Minnesota issues first $600 CARES Act payments to people receiving unemployment benefits

https://www.fox9.com/news/minnesota-issues-first-600-cares-act-payments-to-people-receiving-unemployment-benefits

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4183
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:18:12 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
In the other sad news department:

Inmate waiting 40 years finally gets appeal hearing. But COVID-19 may shut down court.

Read more here: https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/crime/article241261081.html#storylink=cpy

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4184
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:22:02 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
For a break and a little humour:

quote:

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police received a call that two members of the community were at large earlier this week . . .

“Right now we got fleeing to elude, reckless walking ... I’m sure that’s at least a citation somewhere.”
.
.
.
The caption of the Instagram post said that the officer read “the perpetrators their rights,” which included the right to remain silent and the right to carrots.


https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article241163301.html

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4185
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:22:05 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

CDC — Influenza Deaths: Request for Correction (RFC)





A letter to CDC. No date on it. No talk of CV19

I find it very interesting.



-----------------------------------------------
https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-%E2%80%94-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc



"US data on influenza deaths are false and misleading.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges a difference between flu death and flu associated death yet uses the terms interchangeably.

Additionally, there are significant statistical incompatibilities between official estimates and national vital statistics data.

Compounding these problems is a marketing of fear—a CDC communications strategy in which medical experts "predict dire outcomes" during flu seasons."


"The CDC website states what has become commonly accepted and widely reported in the lay and scientific press: annually "about 36 000 [Americans] die from flu" (www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease.htm) and "influenza/pneumonia" is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States (www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm).

But why are flu and pneumonia bundled together?

Is the relationship so strong or unique to warrant characterizing them as a single cause of death? David Rosenthal, director of Harvard University Health Services, said, "People don't necessarily die, per se, of the [flu] virus—the viraemia.

What they die of is a secondary pneumonia"


"It really did look like we needed to do something to encourage people to get a flu shot."

If flu is in fact not a major cause of death, this public relations approach is surely exaggerated.

Moreover, by arbitrarily linking flu with pneumonia, current data are statistically biased.

Until corrected and until unbiased statistics are developed, the chances for sound discussion and public health policy are limited.

I am a pediatrician and this propaganda affects my practice directly.

Kenneth Stoller
International Hyperbaric Medical Association

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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4186
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:27:12 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Pork producer closes Sioux Falls facility after 'number' of employees test positive for COVID-19

quote:



Smithfield Foods, a meat producer, announced Thursday it would close its Sioux Falls plant after a "number" of employees tested positive for COVID-19.

According to a release from the company, the closure is set to happen over the weekend.

In its release, the company did not list how many employees tested positive.

During the closure, the facility will be cleaned and sanitized.

The company said all employees scheduled to work during the closure will be paid.


https://kstp.com/minnesota-news/pork-producer-closes-sioux-falls-facility-after-number-of-employees-test-positive-for-covid-19/5696851/

Smithfield is now owned by a Chinese corporation. It has many other labels as well. This was the same company which fed banned substances to Chinese pigs.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4187
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:30:39 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
Sleep Number furloughing 40% of employees, cutting hours for another 30%

quote:



Minneapolis-based Sleep Number on Wednesday joined the long list of companies furloughing and cutting employees' hours amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

In a quarterly earnings release, the company announced it is furloughing 40% of its employees and reducing hours for another 30%. The company is also suspending its 401(K) match and other benefit programs.

Sleep Number said its CEO, Shelly Ibach, won't receive any cash compensation for the balance of the year through a 50% deferral plus an exchange of remaining salary for restricted stock units. The company's board and leadership team is also reducing cash compensation for restricted stock units.

The company attributed the moves to it complying with government orders and closing most of its retail and home delivery options amid the pandemic.

According to its website, Sleep Number employs more than 4,000 people and operates over 570 stores in the U.S., pulling in $1.4 billion in revenues in fiscal year 2017.


https://kstp.com/business/sleep-number-furloughing-40-of-employees-cutting-hours-for-another-30/5696293/

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4188
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:30:51 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
US flu activity drops sharply; death toll holds at 24K
Apr 03, 2020

https://www.ky3.com/content/news/US-flu-activity-drops-sharply-death-toll-holds-at-24K-569352381.html


"“Influenza-like illness activity, while lower than last week, is still elevated,” the CDC said Friday.

The overall severity of this season’s flu remains moderate to low.

The CDC estimates that so far there have been at least 24,000 deaths from flu, 39 million flu illnesses and 400,000 hospitalizations."

_____________________________


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(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4189
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:33:54 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 8209
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
COVID-19 in Wisconsin: At least 2,885 confirmed cases, 113 deaths

quote:



At least 2,885 positive COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in Wisconsin as of Thursday, with 113 deaths, according to Wisconsin health officials and ABC affiliate WISN.

Of those cases, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services said 29% of cases have required hospitalization of some kind. A total of 31,424 tests have come back negative in the state.

Milwaukee County remains the hardest hit in Wisconsin, accounting for 1,484 positive cases and 65 deaths as of Thursday. According to WISN, 70% of the Milwaukee County victims have been African American.

Wisconsin has not been updating the number of patients who have recovered and are no longer exhibiting symptoms.


https://kstp.com/minnesota-news/covid-19-in-wisconsin-at-least-2885-confirmed-cases-113-deaths-april-9-2020/5696917/

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4190
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:35:02 AM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Hospitals Paid Extra to List Patients as COVID19 & 3X as Much if the Patient on Ventilator
April 9, 2020


https://principia-scientific.org/hospitals-paid-extra-to-list-patients-as-covid19-3x-as-much-if-the-patient-on-ventilator/

"his was after Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota physician and Republican state senator, told a local station he received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus.

Dr. Jensen also disclosed that hospitals are paid more if they list patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis. And hospitals get paid THREE TIMES AS MUCH if the patient then goes on a ventilator.

Senator Dr. Scott Jensen: Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do."


Yeah, that's one of the reasons for the so praised low fatalities in Germany's hospitals - they had to kick out every other, non urgent case while already deep in red €€€.
Ok, to be fair they needed experience as well.
But small fish, newborn fry in comparison with big pharma. :-)

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4191
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:39:09 AM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


CDC — Influenza Deaths: Request for Correction (RFC)





A letter to CDC. No date on it. No talk of CV19

I find it very interesting.



-----------------------------------------------
https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-%E2%80%94-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc



"US data on influenza deaths are false and misleading.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges a difference between flu death and flu associated death yet uses the terms interchangeably.

Additionally, there are significant statistical incompatibilities between official estimates and national vital statistics data.

Compounding these problems is a marketing of fear—a CDC communications strategy in which medical experts "predict dire outcomes" during flu seasons."


"The CDC website states what has become commonly accepted and widely reported in the lay and scientific press: annually "about 36 000 [Americans] die from flu" (www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease.htm) and "influenza/pneumonia" is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States (www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm).

But why are flu and pneumonia bundled together?

Is the relationship so strong or unique to warrant characterizing them as a single cause of death? David Rosenthal, director of Harvard University Health Services, said, "People don't necessarily die, per se, of the [flu] virus—the viraemia.

What they die of is a secondary pneumonia"


"It really did look like we needed to do something to encourage people to get a flu shot."



Flu = vaccination = $$$$
Mask = o.o1 $
:-)

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4192
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:41:06 AM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

I think we are now moving into the next phase of this. Tracking day-to-day cases/deaths will now start to give us increasingly good news - something to be celebrated :).

So I think the question is now - where next?

It seems to me that in Europe and the US we have got on top of the epidemic through 'brute force'. But that strategy is not sustainable economically. It seems to be generally accepted that a vaccine is likely still a year away. What happens in the meantime?

Where do people think the 'holding pattern' is? The balance between economic recovery and avoiding a return to day 1 of an epidemic curve.

South Korea seems to have done a good job of keeping on top of things. But some of the strategies they have used would seem to be anathema to the European/American public. To what extent do we feel comfortable with that kind of heavy monitoring and involvement from 'big government'?

In more general terms (setting aside the public health specifics) how are we going to deal with what looks likely to be a global recession, if not an equivalent of the Great Depression of the 1930s? Do we carry on as normal in the belief that the free market will right itself naturally? Or will we need to make a paradigm shift in our beliefs about the economy and society?


An exellent exposé.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The U. Washington site (https://covid19.healthdata.org/germany) seems to feel that Germany has a pretty strong handle on things.





Me again, advocatus diavoli.

The burning question: Why should the casualities ever drop in near future?

Because we are all hiding in caves?

No, this will burn and burn through society like WP, maybe on a lower level - you can't put a modern society into a complete lockdown.

---

What is right and what wrong, how should we handle this? Canoerebel, you used the metaphor of Noah's arch (ca. 50 pages ago), the sanctuary for those who needed to be protected — but who is this?

The young, especially the children who will miss an important experience in socializing? All hardworking businessman and employees, whose life work is being destroyed right now? The 90-95 % of our society for whom this will be only a nasty flu indeed. Edit: wrong number, based on a crappy paper: it's more 80%

Or the weak minority, the much fragile and elder, who's future is laying behind them? Should we really destroy our hole economy for some guys with Alzheimer and Bronchitis and Cardiovascular-whatever who would die anyway next year or two?

No easy answer.
If it only would be a nasty, ruined summer - ok, we could hide. Other generations had fight for surviving, we should only stay at home and watch tv.
And wait for x-mas, when our 1 ooo ooo ooo ooo... N95 masks are finally delivered by China.

It's a luxus, a property problem: Never before in human history this question has really arrived — 150 years ago a lot of people at risk would have been long gone: Died A.D. in peace by natural causes we read. But would farmers stopped the harvest then? Would neolithic hunter and gatherers kept the children out of the cave? This exact problem appears only in our time.
Modern medicine has given them, the vulnerable, extra time already and life is neither infinite nor fair. And Adipositas for example, while millions of kids will starving? In a statistic 0.5 % is more or less meaningless.
life is not a simple number, true.
But it's 30 lifes against one. (I thought it was > 200 :1 when I wrote zhis)

And what is with the survivors, the healthy and then immunizised younger generation? Should, could and want we to forbit them all the fun in life we had? And with which force?

At the moment everyone is still under shock. But this will change - keep in mind that for every poor soul in heaven there are at least 200 live-hungry survivors, in a city like New York probably more than only an egocentric minority. When they - the immunized - decide to party again - who has the right to stop them?

Over centuries larger settlements were detremential for population growing - more people died from diseases then newborns survived.

Oh oh, interesting times. Never thought before I would ever be like Nietzsche.
---

Edit: so far the Germans are astonishing reasonable - we have NO real lockdown yet and numbers falling. But complience is fading away and easter is coming - no one took this serious any longer cause nothin' is happening and Italy is far away.

--- sry for spelling, grammar stuff etc. - used to go fishing instead of learning as a teen.

< Message edited by Wuffer -- 4/10/2020 4:07:16 AM >

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 4193
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:41:39 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Californians may have developed some herd immunity to coronavirus last year, Stanford team theorizes
Updated 34 minutes ago

https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus&sxsrf=ALeKk03r2oRkYB0f5ubU56Pz2Gq5TF_hkw:1586486388420&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:h&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiQtP2s6tzoAhVyk-AKHa3RAoUQpwV6BAgfEBo&biw=1163&bih=729

"LOS ANGELES -- New York state has half the population of California but has experienced 14 times as many deaths from coronavirus.

Experts are looking into several possibilities as to why California hasn't been hit as hard.

The trend has been particularly surprising, experts say, given the state has a large number of people in poverty and homelessness, and saw a substantial amount of travel to and from China last year.

One theory centers around the idea of herd immunity - the concept that a large percentage of a population has already contracted and become immune to an infection, slowing the rate at which it spreads to others.

Stanford researchers are looking into the possibility that coronavirus first hit California undetected last year, much earlier than anyone realized, and was only seen at that time as a particularly nasty and early flu season."

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(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 4194
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:47:32 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2138
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
In Korea, our new cases dropped to 27 yesterday. This is very good news. Here's a link: New virus cases fall below 30 for first time in 50 days, Daegu reports no new cases

Regarding civil liberties, it's an interesting question. The government here is great at contact tracing and can do it within 10 minutes (meaning if you test positive, it takes them 10 minutes to figure out everyone's path you've crossed in the last however many days). When this virus situation is done, they say they will eliminate the accumulated tracking data. I think they will.

Korea is an interesting place, at least to me. The government and its agencies are very beholden to public opinion. Since contact tracing is not visibly a tool of oppression, there's no public pressure against it. However, shutting down small businesses and putting people out of work by government decree would generate a huge amount of public badwill, and they don't have the nads to do that kind of thing. The government is more afraid of the people than vice versa, as it should be. Recently, the mayor of Seoul imposed a 10-day shutdown of large nightclubs and hostess bars. That's doable because the average Korean isn't a big fan of those places in the first place. They don't get great PR. School closings are somewhat more unpopular, but at the end of the day private cram schools have mostly re-opened and Mrs. Kim knows those are more important for her kids' future success. The cram schools will help the kiddies pass their college entrance exams, not the regular schools. Cram schools will help them pass the TOEFL (English) test so they can work for a big chaebol like Samsung. So, at the end of the day there are no 100,000+ demonstrations two blocks from my office demanding the government back off, which is nice.

Someone mentioned masks. Masks are to protect others from you, not vice versa. I'm at the point where the missus would kick my arse if I didn't wear one of those every day, especially around the apartment complex.

I'll see if I can answer Obvert's question on what kind of treatments are being done here.

Cheers,
CB



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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4195
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 2:48:42 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4231
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
FACTS ABOUT CORONAVIRUS

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, is spread mainly from person-to-person by those in close contact, or through coughing and sneezing by someone who’s infected.

Symptoms of the coronavirus can show up between two and 14 days of exposure, health officials say. Symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath.

For most people, COVID-19 causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. But some severe cases can lead to death.




Most people can recover from the virus at home using over-the-counter medications to treat their symptoms.




Those who are at the highest risk of developing severe case of COVID-19 are the elderly and those who are already being treated for chronic medical diseases.

Young people who contract the virus are not likely to have a serious case, research shows. However, the CDC said about 40% of people who needed to be hospitalized due to the coronavirus are between the ages of 20 and 54.


< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/10/2020 2:49:03 AM >


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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4196
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 3:47:20 AM   
Cad908

 

Posts: 1325
Joined: 10/9/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Rob,

Do you have any feel whether the lagging case reports are reflected in the U. Washington model/projection?

Attached is the U. Wash. projection for Michigan, as of today.

Pardon me if you're already 100x ahead of me on this, but my experience with the Wash. projections over the past week is that it predominantly overestimates mortality (sometimes considerably) and much more rarely underestimates (but not in my experience considerably). From what I've seen, I'd expect the model to incorporate lagging data and other things behind the curtain, so that the projections continue consistently. Or do you find something that leads you to believe U. Wash. projection will likely seriously underreport, as we'll see in coming days.

I'm anxious to know, because the site has a good record (from where I sit). If it is subject to mistakes, I'd want to know (and presumably they would too!).

Thanks for posting. Good luck to the Wolverine State.



Canoerebel,

Yes, I look at the daily projection vs actual reports quite closely; for Michigan the projections have been consistently higher than those reported by the administration. I am concerned about the state numbers as there has been considerable squabbling between the Governor's office and county / hospital administrators about the lack of consistent, timely data reports. The final "real" numbers will come later, but I feel the state has passed the peak and is headed in a better direction.

The political infighting is just starting to heat up.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/04/09/michigan-stay-home-order-extended/2938605001/

Note the hidden gem in this Detroit Free Press article about the extension of Governor Witmer's "stay at home" order announced today. In particular:

But it also comes as many Republicans and some business groups are calling on Whitmer to ease some restrictions amid a crashed state and national economy and allow businesses that can safely get back to work to do so, even if they are not deemed essential. Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey, R-Clarklake, called on Whitmer on Thursday to revise the order so that it can be enforced less stringently in areas of the state where the virus is not widespread.

This call from out-state business groups will become more intense as we get closer to April 30. So on top of a public health crisis we could face a political one as well. I do not think Michigan will be the only state having to navigate the political consequences as the wave begins to recede.

Appreciate your kind thoughts. Take care.

-Rob

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4197
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 3:47:47 AM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Good news!

Cautious interim result of a mass investigation in one of the largest clusters in Germany:

14% have gone through the infection and show antibodies and not, as previously assumed, 5%.


Therefore, the death rate can be corrected considerably downwards: to about 0.37%

Yeah, this virus seemed to be a man with education and taste, as Jagger said.
German source:
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-in-heinsberg-jeder-siebte-koennte-immun-sein-a-14bd9e0e-0c7e-4775-a8b0-1611ececd870-amp?sara_ecid=soci_upd_KsBF0AFjflf0DZCxpPYDCQgO1dEMph&__twitter_impression=true





Bad news.

if it's to good to be true than it isn't true.
Probably a severe systematic error — they claimed : "An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined".

Problem: there is no specific antibody test for Covid-19 developed yet — the test reacts probably on all corona-types including complete meaningless crap (at least four other humanpathogenic but harmless virus)

The study already disappeared from the official website of the state. Rise and Fall of an overambitious professor.

Crap. Idiots. Mea culpa.
So, o.37 % fatality is dead as s dodo. :-(


(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 4198
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 4:02:39 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 25001
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

quote:


"But our FDA has a system where, using these old regulatory rules, it insisted on sanctioning the test," Makary continued. "And we lost precious time when one of the original scientists submitted an application and was told that he had to submit it also by paper mail with a CD-ROM with the files burned on it."


< Message edited by witpqs -- 4/10/2020 4:03:00 AM >


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(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 4199
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 4:04:21 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 25001
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
We are relying on them and...
Truckers Delivering Essential Goods Struggle to Find Bathrooms, Rest Stops

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(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4200
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