From: Glasgow, Scotland
Obvert, I mistrust the press because of its overt and admitted bias over many years, including issues that are particularly important to me but admittedly not to those aligned with viewpoints of the press. My mistrust of the press is warranted and certainly doesn't pose any threat to any person.
Regarding the governor, as I said before, I heard him specifically talk about asymptomatic people spreading the virus as far back as two or three weeks ago. His comment a few days back was specifically in context of the further more recent development that asymptomatic suffers may never develop symptoms. This was very clear to those who listen to the full stream of things instead of popping in midstream unaware of prior statements that give context and accuracy. (Or do you really think that a governor of one of the mot populous states is that clueless?)
It's been said over and over in here that Georgia specifically left it to local jurisdictions to impose regulations and that they did so early and widespread. You know, for instance, that Georgia schools closed before England's.
Some of the Georgia outbreaks came very early, before those in most other places. Albany, in the SW corner, had two funerals that resulted in big outbreaks starting weeks ago. And Athens, Clarke County, in NE Georgia was one of the earliest and most stringent in imposing countermeasures, yet now has a fairly stout outbreak.
In an interview on local radio Wednesday, I explained why Georgia has been handling this very well. Not perfectly, but very well. I'm glad to be here.
I hope my sentiments don't amount to "Georgia exceptionalism." I think many/most other states are handling things very well. Most (all?) states are using their best judgment to, in good faith, respond to a novel situation.
While it is true the governor said that, it was taken out of context and misrepresented by the press (naturally).
Previously, the governor had said (on at least two occasions I listened to) that the virus could spread from asymptomatic sick.
Wednesday, his statement was with respect to asymptomatic people who will never show symptoms. IE, some Covid sufferers will never show symptoms and never get sick. That's a pretty new finding and the governor was making that point but the press got all excited because they live on gotcha moments - but they were the ones who were got, though most listeners won't ever know it.
The statewide edict almost perfectly matches most of the county and municipal ordinances that were already in effect. I'm not aware of any major differences, though there may be some here and there.
I've looked at all articles I can find that relate to this story. I haven't seen one yet that takes anything out of context. Most give a good paragraph of his speech verbatim.
This is one that has a short piece noting that this evidence was out there for some time, and most places around the world and in the states were acting on it. (my bold)
In Georgia, where at least 154 people have died of COVID-19, Republican Governor Brian Kemp on Wednesday told residents to prepare for a shelter-in-place order beginning on Friday. Governor Kemp’s announcement came weeks after medical professionals warned coronavirus infections would explode across Georgia without strict social distancing measures.
Gov. Brian Kemp: “What we’ve been telling people, from directives from the CDC, for weeks now, that if you start feeling bad, stay home. Those individuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad. But we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours. And as Dr. Toomey told me, she goes, 'This is a game changer.'”
In fact, a report in The New England Journal of Medicine published in late January warned asymptomatic people can spread the coronavirus, and the finding has informed public policy worldwide for weeks.
The mistrust of the press has dire consequences right now, as we've seen with students ignoring warnings and going on spring break, people going about business as usual in some areas with direct local or state directives to stay at home, and in the brash and more subtle ways that people ignore protection and distancing.
Georgia happens to have some very dense concentrations of this virus around right now and it seems this statewide order is coming a bit late. They may not have known asymptomatic cases could transmit the disease, but as government leaders who can influence life or death for millions of people, they should have. I hope that people have been paying attention to the media, the warnings, and doing this themselves. The travel map on the left below does show that some were not over the past week (darker indicating more movement).
Honest question: does Georgia's governor have a public health background?
Geoff, I think your analysis is factually untrue. Lack of testing was the case weeks ago, but testing in the USA has skyrocketed. We have lots of reliable numbers now, form all over the place. JohnDillworth in NYC has numbers and has been offering his insights. As for people dying without anybody knowing that they died of Covid-19, I doubt that. That number would be very low. From the earliest days, testing has been done and everybody was on the lookout for the symptoms. Active cases certainly weren't reported but I think the mortality numbers are about as accurate as any tally could be.
We keep bandying about US numbers when we don't really have the numbers. Without the proper level of testing, and the US, all 50 states, are way behind much of the developed world, we don't know how many cases there are, because we haven't been testing because we can't get the tests. People are dying who may be dying or have died from SARS-Cov-2 virus that we don't know did and in many or most cases will never know because they were't tested and won't be after the fact. Many of those have already been cremated. It appears to me the most relevant countries to watch because their recovered numbers are a significant percent of their total cases, and they were testing heavily include Germany, South Korea, Austria, Taiwan and Canada. China's numbers cannot be trusted at all because their bureaucracy operates by lying at every level because they fear getting canned if they tell the truth.
Taiwan has been amazing in how quickly and successfully they clamped down on this. South Korea got hit hard but they got on top of it, and they're the only country that has a graph like this:
Care to expand on the data validation process that allowed you to make that assertion? From what sources?
I am somewhat sceptical as doing that correctly is a monumental challenge, and absolutely not something that's likely to be accurate this early on.
Fact of the matter is that the official numbers anywhere are akin to be an underestimate.