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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus

 
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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 1:37:41 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7498
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.



Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

(in reply to Zap)
Post #: 121
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 2:20:18 AM   
Lobster


Posts: 3909
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From: Third rock from the Sun.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

But now hear this: she is in Lombardy, in the middle of one of the hottest zones on Earth (we are told) - and she can't name a single person hit by the Coronavirus. Not one of her fellow students, not one of her friends, not her grocer, not the cab driver, not the brother-in-law of a friend's dentist. No one. She told me "Should I decide to try how this bug is, I wouldn't know how to do it." (she was always the creative one).



Isn't this exactly what governments are trying to achieve? Is it a bad thing that it isn't spreading like the flu or the common cold?

Sometimes it seems to me the media and some in government are trying to make it appear like the black death to scare people into doing the things necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.

On the upside, anyone seen the sat images of China? They found a way to stop pollution. Air quality is great in Beijing.

_____________________________

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(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 122
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 9:14:56 AM   
RFalvo69


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster


quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

But now hear this: she is in Lombardy, in the middle of one of the hottest zones on Earth (we are told) - and she can't name a single person hit by the Coronavirus. Not one of her fellow students, not one of her friends, not her grocer, not the cab driver, not the brother-in-law of a friend's dentist. No one. She told me "Should I decide to try how this bug is, I wouldn't know how to do it." (she was always the creative one).



Isn't this exactly what governments are trying to achieve? Is it a bad thing that it isn't spreading like the flu or the common cold?

Sometimes it seems to me the media and some in government are trying to make it appear like the black death to scare people into doing the things necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.


True, fear is a way to make people react correctly to the problem. Then again, fear makes people run away from "red zone" areas - via corruption or unbeaten paths. The authorities in Northern Italy actually catched some guys who were trying to make a beeline for Genoa starting from Codogno, the "ground zero" in Lombardy. No one knows if others were successful in escaping.

What my daughter meant, however, is that she isn't hearing about someone who got the virus, no matter how distant the relationship is - like in "Boy, my sister's friend knows a doctor that catch the bug and was admitted at the San Raffaele hospital in Milan today; he is very sick. Brrr!" Nothing. Her radar is empty. The only sick people she knows about are those mentioned in the media. I can say the same.


_____________________________

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(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 123
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 11:09:09 AM   
Lobster


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That is encouraging. I hope it stays that way. I hope it goes away with the warm weather like the flu.

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Post #: 124
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 1:12:30 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 712
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

That is encouraging. I hope it stays that way. I hope it goes away with the warm weather like the flu.

Or that "a miracle" happens

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 125
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 1:15:17 PM   
Mobius


Posts: 10338
Joined: 6/30/2006
From: California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.



Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

_____________________________

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panzer

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 126
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 1:42:39 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7498
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mobius


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.



Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

(in reply to Mobius)
Post #: 127
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 2:23:53 PM   
Sieben


Posts: 24
Joined: 1/18/2018
Status: offline


[/quote]
There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.
[/quote]

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%

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Post #: 128
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 2:32:46 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7498
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sieben




There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.


Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%

This report says 'confirmed' cases - that is not the same as total cases. There are 'suspected' and 'possible' cases, too. Many mild cases are not reported or categorized correctly, as described by Chickenboy. Let's wait until the dust settles.

Even if the mortality rate does exceed 2% of cases, it's nothing like 25 or 30% of the total population.

(in reply to Sieben)
Post #: 129
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 2:35:19 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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From: Houston, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sieben

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%


Worse than a tour in Nam. (58,000 / 2,700,000) = 2.15%.

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(in reply to Sieben)
Post #: 130
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 2:45:59 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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From: Houston, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

This report says 'confirmed' cases - that is not the same as total cases. There are 'suspected' and 'possible' cases, too. Many mild cases are not reported or categorized correctly, as described by Chickenboy. Let's wait until the dust settles.


Both ends of the equation are equally unknown. You are correct that we don't know the full extent of the cases, but we also don't know the full extent of how many of those cases (most still in progress) will result in deaths. So, working with what is known for both sides of the equation (known cases vs. known deaths) is probably the best estimate.

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Post #: 131
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 2:51:44 PM   
operating


Posts: 3000
Joined: 1/19/2013
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sieben




There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.


Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%

Here is the problem: Getting your (or anybody's info from a media site) data correct go directly to the source. ABC is releasing the wrong information, although it is not that far off. Below is "today's" WHO statistics: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200229-sitrep-40-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=7203e653_2

(in reply to Sieben)
Post #: 132
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 3:08:49 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7498
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online
If it gets real bad, I'll to retire to my country villa and read Boccaccio's Decameron.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to operating)
Post #: 133
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 3:19:07 PM   
Sieben


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Thanks for the link, operating. I'll quote from there in the future. However, unless my calculator is broken, figures from that site still work out to 3.4%. Also, I've been making this calculation every time new figures are released and it had gone up steadily from just over 2% to over 3.4%. Unlike SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has spread to 60 countries. Excuse me if I worry.

_____________________________

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Post #: 134
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 5:17:09 PM   
Mobius


Posts: 10338
Joined: 6/30/2006
From: California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mobius


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.



Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

Most people realize the bias in politics.
http://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/report-journalists-are-miserable-over-educated-under-paid-middle-aged-men-mostly/361891/
Then there is the bias in class and education as in the UK.
http://theminiaturespage.com/boards/topics.mv?id=22

_____________________________

All your Tanks are Belong to us!
panzer

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 135
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/1/2020 11:07:57 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7498
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mobius


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mobius


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.



Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

Most people realize the bias in politics.
http://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/report-journalists-are-miserable-over-educated-under-paid-middle-aged-men-mostly/361891/
Then there is the bias in class and education as in the UK.
http://theminiaturespage.com/boards/topics.mv?id=22

I can't comment on your links without getting political. Thanks for posting them.

My reasoning is that the media give people what they want, in the search for higher ratings. And a juicy headline with buzzwords is more interesting (to most people) than a complicated, hard to explain, accurate description of the problem. Viewers watch what they can easily understand. I don't see that as being political.


(in reply to Mobius)
Post #: 136
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 1:23:40 AM   
Erik Rutins

 

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Passing this along as I think it's a good summary:

http://blog.eladgil.com/2020/02/coronavirus-covid-19-overview-for.html

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Post #: 137
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 3:23:52 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9141
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From: east coast, usa
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Thanks for that and other posts, Erik; and to Romano for the reports from Italy [glad the sister is ok]. My brother is well established and respected in the medical field [based in the eastern USA and currently traveling to the Mid-West and not unduly worried] and his advice is similar to that blog. That is, no need to flee to Rockall, just have 2-4 weeks of supplies at home in case your area is suddenly shut down.

(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 138
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 12:30:27 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 712
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sieben

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%


Worse than a tour in Nam. (58,000 / 2,700,000) = 2.15%.


But a tour in 'Nam also caused wounded, disabled and people with permanent PTSD. I guess that the overall percentage of "casualties" was much higher.

However, it is true that this virus is causing PTSD in entities ranging from the common guy to the whole World economy - even before it hits.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 139
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 1:19:58 PM   
Lobster


Posts: 3909
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sieben

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%


Worse than a tour in Nam. (58,000 / 2,700,000) = 2.15%.


But a tour in 'Nam also caused wounded, disabled and people with permanent PTSD. I guess that the overall percentage of "casualties" was much higher.

However, it is true that this virus is causing PTSD in entities ranging from the common guy to the whole World economy - even before it hits.


Even before it hits? China is the 'worlds factory'. There are shortages of materials because the world practically put all of it's eggs in one basket. Many of those eggs are pharmaceuticals. If you use the common pain reliever acetaminophen then you will be impacted. Further, if you have high blood pressure that is one of the OTC pain relievers that is used. It has hit in China. No even before.

BTW, Bob was talking about deaths and said so.

< Message edited by Lobster -- 3/2/2020 2:19:32 PM >


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(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 140
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 5:35:04 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 712
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Even before it hits? China is the 'worlds factory'. There are shortages of materials because the world practically put all of it's eggs in one basket. Many of those eggs are pharmaceuticals. If you use the common pain reliever acetaminophen then you will be impacted. Further, if you have high blood pressure that is one of the OTC pain relievers that is used. It has hit in China. No even before.


I don't doubt that (I don't have real data). However I still maintain that the reaction to the Coronavirus is, starting from the single individuals to the World economy, more like a panicked one than a rational one.

Over and over we are told that masks only help if worn by the sick, not by the healthy - yet you see scores of people going around with masks. Masks are the new Linus' blanket.

Over and over we are told about both the simple procedures that will lower significantly the possibility to catch the virus *and* how it can be really dangerous for a specific strata of the population - yet people behave like if the virus is deadly all around, and it is "out there", right out of your door, ready to get you.

News about new cases usually use this form: "Guy is sick with the Coronavirus, 120 colleagues in the same office are being tested". After a while "are being tested" loses its meaning. Maybe another one got it, but it is the "120" number that remains in the public consciousness.

Just to add happiness to happiness, we have the merry people who produce fake news just to have fun. Every then and now Twitter "targets" a place and explains how there are "uncontrolled cases" running around. Only a few people wonder how those who created this news can know about "uncontrolled" cases. This is only an example.

And politicians, in the only truly worldwide coordinated action, bicker between themselves, blaming the rival party for both the inefficient measures and the "unneeded scare". Of course this political bickering always starts with the declaration that "this emergency is not a political thing and it should not be"; before the finger pointing starts.

Meanwhile, in the Real World, I just returned from a meeting with the other Pub/Bar/Restaurant/Hotel owners in my area. The situation is grim in all Southern Italy, with drops in tourism (including cancellations) reaching 50%-60%. Sicily is hit the hardest, because they have an all year around tourism season, but also here in Calabria we are suffering from half-empty places.

There is no reason for this. We do not have the Coronavirus in Southern Italy (OK, yet). Travel between North and South right now is minimal. Some proposed a reason for this crisis: foreign tourists do not fear the virus by itself: what they do fear is being unable to return home "from Italy". Make of it what you want.

And now it seems that the export sector will get an hit, too, because "of fears that the virus can survive on the goods". Already orders for wines, foods and other edibles are being cut. OTOH, others say that buying online will only increase, as a measure to get what you want while remaining at home.

Maybe. Meanwhile the Corona brand of beer is being left on the supermarket shelves. I thought it was a joke. It isn't. Corona lost 285 million dollars in the first two months of 2020. My mother guessed that "there is a second virus going around - a virus that hits the brain the way computer viruses hit computers."

What a mess. And, just to underline once again, I firmly believe that it is the mess that is causing panic and economic collapse, not the virus by itself

quote:


BTW, Bob was talking about deaths and said so.


I know. It is the reason is why I underlined that you can't really compare the two percentages.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 141
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 5:52:57 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7498
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: online
"Meanwhile the Corona brand of beer is being left on the supermarket shelves. I thought it was a joke. It isn't. Corona lost 285 million dollars in the first two months of 2020."

Once upon a time there was a candy roll named AIDS.

(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 142
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 8:09:04 PM   
wodin


Posts: 10349
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From: England
Status: offline
Think I read it has a 2% lethality rate. Storm in a tea cup.

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Post #: 143
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 9:43:58 PM   
Mobius


Posts: 10338
Joined: 6/30/2006
From: California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

Think I read it has a 2% lethality rate. Storm in a tea cup.

That is more or less an overall average. It is very low for the young but grows for older people. Seems to be about 10% for the elderly and medically frail.

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Post #: 144
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 9:52:40 PM   
Zovs


Posts: 4754
Joined: 2/23/2009
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Nope. Just... Nope.


< Message edited by PipFromSlitherine -- 3/2/2020 10:03:20 PM >


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(in reply to Mobius)
Post #: 145
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 9:57:48 PM   
DD696

 

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From: near Savannah, Ga
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Hey, that's me!. I'm 73, yeah, I am an old fart, and I have asthma - or COPD, depends on which doctor I talk to. So, when the crap hits the fan I'm right in the line of fire. Just like many of those here on this site. Out with the old and in with the new.

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(in reply to Mobius)
Post #: 146
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 10:08:25 PM   
PipFromSlitherine

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mobius


quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

Think I read it has a 2% lethality rate. Storm in a tea cup.

That is more or less an overall average. It is very low for the young but grows for older people. Seems to be about 10% for the elderly and medically frail.

The lethality rate is only useful alongside how contagious it is. The key problem is that it is (a) very contagious, (b) most people have mild enough symptoms that they don't stay home and thus infect lots of others.

2% becomes much more significant a public health issue if 50% of the world's population ends up becoming infected.

Cheers

Pip

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(in reply to Mobius)
Post #: 147
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 10:33:29 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5710
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: online
I hate to sound crass, but you have to die from something unless you are immortal. That said, it might just aggravate existing conditions such as asthma, heart problems, and other issues. Live your life but take sensible precautions. Actually, the proper mask can help the non-infected stay that way by not breathing in the pathogens but you can still get sick from catching the various illness causing pathogens some other way.

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(in reply to PipFromSlitherine)
Post #: 148
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 10:39:09 PM   
Lobster


Posts: 3909
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From: Third rock from the Sun.
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You really don't understand. It seems you would rather just ignore it until it's like Wuhan where the healthcare system folds under the masses of people. That's what the rest of the world is trying to prevent. It can't be business as usual. This stuff is much more contagious than the flu. Everything is fine and then it's like a bomb going off because it's contagious very early on yet symptoms don't appear for a week or more. Suddenly people are dying and hospitals become swamped because it goes undetected for so long. Yeah, that's scary to me because I'm not stupid. I've survived a lot of **** storms because I never take anything for granted.

I have an idea, you and your business buddies offer free meals a few times a week and tout how no one will get sick. If you're right then you'll get lots of customers and people will become less afraid. If you're wrong you'll probably end up in court. Roll the dice.

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(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 149
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/2/2020 11:10:08 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 712
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
I have an idea, you and your business buddies offer free meals a few times a week and tout how no one will get sick. If you're right then you'll get lots of customers and people will become less afraid. If you're wrong you'll probably end up in court. Roll the dice.


That wouldn't work: free meals do not automatically lead to increased customers' numbers. And scared customers will ignore the free meal anyway.

Regarding the court thinghie, there would be no law against free meals and no disposition against them in the official precautions taken to fight the bug.

Anyway... Well, right on cue we were notified of 7 suspected cases in Sicily and one in Calabria - all already quarantined, however.

I ranted against the politicians (in a general sense in the Western World); but I must admit that, at least here in Italy, the scientific community does seem to be tackling the problem head-on. Now we have the institution of:

- Red Zones (hot zones from where the virus originated - usually not bigger that a town and the outskirts, like Codogno)
- Yellow Zones (areas containing one or more hot zones, like Lombardy)
- and Green Zones (areas where the know cases are all quarantined and there is no scientific reason to think that the situation will change, like Sicily and Calabria).

This is helping a lot to clarify the situation. I hope that it will help to avoid fear due to confusion amid the populace.

Better yet, the authorities do seem to listen. The government is imposing to all the country the blanket adoption of those measures that do seem to work, overruling the actions taken by the single regions (which were amid the sources of bickering, since every region is governed by a different party ). We will see.

Of course the media "due to the duty to inform" underline how "these are unproven, precautional measures" (wow, you do apply measures against a new form of menace and those measures are "unproven"? who would have thought that) - with follow ups where the widow of a recently deceased man is interviewed.

Edit: That's all for today. If anything, every night I go to bed with a sense of curiosity about what tomorrow will bring.

< Message edited by RFalvo69 -- 3/2/2020 11:11:58 PM >


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(in reply to Lobster)
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