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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus

 
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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 1:09:59 PM   
loki100


Posts: 6537
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

...
I hope you are not criticising my graph. I've put hours into extrapolating the key data points



could you do a time series? that might help?


_____________________________


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Post #: 991
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 2:05:43 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7530
Joined: 3/7/2010
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My data points are 4 bikes, 1 cat. Are your conclusions still valid?

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 992
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 2:26:24 PM   
MrRoadrunner


Posts: 1237
Joined: 10/7/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

My data points are 4 bikes, 1 cat. Are your conclusions still valid?


Maybe it's just me, but when did cats start riding bikes?
Do they keep spare bikes in case visitors come over?

Why did Warspite1's graph not include your cat?

Proving that his numbers must be flawed. I'm going to green button him!

Will Curtis get it? I'm going to green button him.

Cats and dogs living together, with bikes ... ahhhhhhhhh! I'm going to green button them too!

RR



_____________________________

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”
― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 993
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 2:36:37 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11987
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline
Today's worldwide figures:




Those who say that Total Deaths and Total Recovered are "completely unrelated" are blind, deaf, and dumb. Together they make up the Total Resolved, and as such are obviously related.

The number I'm calculating is the only valid death rate we can derive that is based entirely on facts.

Everyone else is proffering opinions, beliefs, gut feelings, intuitions, etc. I'll pass.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 4/7/2020 2:44:05 PM >


_____________________________

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(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 994
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 2:59:50 PM   
Lava


Posts: 1690
Joined: 2/9/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
...that is based entirely on facts.


Not true.

Many folks are given cause of death as coronavirus without having been given a test to see if they have the disease. Doctors have been given that latitude because test kits are in short supply, especially in particularly hard hit countries such as Italy.

None of the numbers you are using are "facts." They are simply "reported."

So the best you can say is "based on reported."

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 995
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:04:30 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 42013
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRoadrunner


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

My data points are 4 bikes, 1 cat. Are your conclusions still valid?


Maybe it's just me, but when did cats start riding bikes?
Do they keep spare bikes in case visitors come over?

Why did Warspite1's graph not include your cat?

Proving that his numbers must be flawed. I'm going to green button him!


Will Curtis get it? I'm going to green button him.

Cats and dogs living together, with bikes ... ahhhhhhhhh! I'm going to green button them too!

RR


warspite1

Fetch me my angry trousers - I'm madder than I've ever been

Are you seriously questioning my numbers Mr RR?? Seriously? But I've dealt in facts. The total number of cats to bikes for the whole of the UK... except at the time of writing I only knew the numbers for my house... BUT never mind, them's the facts so that must be right mustn't it! I mean, no need to caveat my numbers or actually give any information

But that's it, I've had enough. I'm going to Green Button the entire world - including my little green button MWahahahahahahahaha

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to MrRoadrunner)
Post #: 996
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:11:55 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11987
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lava

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
...that is based entirely on facts.


Not true.

Many folks are given cause of death as coronavirus without having been given a test to see if they have the disease. Doctors have been given that latitude because test kits are in short supply, especially in particularly hard hit countries such as Italy.

None of the numbers you are using are "facts." They are simply "reported."

So the best you can say is "based on reported."

Which is what I've always said.

From my post #971:

"It is a FACT: Of all the known resolved corona virus cases worldwide, over 20% have died."

Now, if you want to base anything on Unknown cases, or Unresolved cases, you are engaging in opinion, etc.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 4/7/2020 3:15:42 PM >


_____________________________

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(in reply to Lava)
Post #: 997
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:16:07 PM   
rico21

 

Posts: 2770
Joined: 3/11/2016
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This little post to prepare for deconfinement.
1) An IQ test for everyone.
Only those who get at least 100 will be able to go out, the others will remain confined because their intelligence is a danger for everyone.
2) A National Resilience Council (CNR) which will represent the interests of ...... survivors.
3) A new Bretton Woods to deleverage humanity. All debts will be canceled, a new universal currency created:
The coinvid.
Hope.

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 998
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:16:33 PM   
Red2112

 

Posts: 1355
Joined: 9/9/2006
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Oh, snake-oil vendors again! Don´t know how anyone even supports this, no matter what relation there be.

There's a old German 17th. Century Story/Fable about Death;
At the time of the plague, Death went to town.
An old man on the outskirts asked him where he was going.
Death said: I'll get a hundred people.
On the way back the old man asked him why he got a thousand people.
Death replied: I only got a hundred people. The others died of fear.


_____________________________


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Post #: 999
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:21:42 PM   
Lava


Posts: 1690
Joined: 2/9/2004
Status: offline
Ya'll have seen this map right?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Look at the fine print:

quote:

Confirmed cases include presumptive positive cases


Definition of presumptive

1 : based on probability or presumption the presumptive nominee
2 : giving grounds for reasonable opinion or belief

So no, the numbers being reported are not facts. They are a best guess. All numbers reported are flawed due to the lack of testing, including confirmed cases and death.

Sorry, mate. But you really should change your language to say that the numbers you are using are based on presumption and steer well clear of calling those numbers facts. Especially since the folks generating those numbers do not call them facts either.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 1000
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:30:00 PM   
Lava


Posts: 1690
Joined: 2/9/2004
Status: offline
Are Coronavirus deaths being over recorded?

quote:

Young, healthy Florida man has died from COVID-19 after dying in a car accident

Evidence is beginning to mount that young and healthy people can contract COVID-19 and die from the horrifying disease. Florida health officials reported that a 32-year-old Daytona resident, Carl Junior, with no preexisting conditions has died from coronavirus after dying in a car accident.

“It’s true that most people who are at serious risk of dying from COVID-19 are those who are about to die from other diseases, but young and healthy people are dropping dead left and right too!” Florida coronavirus Czar Jed Goebbels said.

The Daytona man was not officially tested for coronavirus, but the doctor was pretty sure he had it and a coughing fit was what caused him to be hit from behind by an 18-wheeler semi truck.

“This just goes to show that everyone needs to be fearful on this disease, not just a subset of unhealthy old-timers,” Goebbels added. “Everyone needs to panic a little more.”

For information on how to panic more during this crisis, please read GT’s Guide on Panicking during the Coronavirus Pandemic.

The Florida Democratic Committee on Economic Destruction celebrated the news of the untimely death after forcing Governor DeSantis to enact stay at home orders last week.

“Deaths like this prove that we are correct in shutting down the economy in order to protect people from this awful disease.”


Genesus Times



(in reply to Lava)
Post #: 1001
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:30:11 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:




Those who say that Total Deaths and Total Recovered are "completely unrelated" are blind, deaf, and dumb. Together they make up the Total Resolved, and as such are obviously related.

The number I'm calculating is the only valid death rate we can derive that is based entirely on facts.

Everyone else is proffering opinions, beliefs, gut feelings, intuitions, etc. I'll pass.


Like a kidney stone, yours will pass as well.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 1002
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 3:30:55 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11987
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lava

Ya'll have seen this map right?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Look at the fine print:

quote:

Confirmed cases include presumptive positive cases


Definition of presumptive

1 : based on probability or presumption the presumptive nominee
2 : giving grounds for reasonable opinion or belief

So no, the numbers being reported are not facts. They are a best guess. All numbers reported are flawed due to the lack of testing, including confirmed cases and death.

Sorry, mate. But you really should change your language to say that the numbers you are using are based on presumption and steer well clear of calling those numbers facts. Especially since the folks generating those numbers do not call them facts either.

I'm not using the "Confirmed cases". I'm just using the deaths and recoveries.

And your claim sounds like a conspiracy theory. I'm assuming the official figures are as close to reality as we can get at this time.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 4/7/2020 3:40:10 PM >


_____________________________

My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site

(in reply to Lava)
Post #: 1003
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:04:26 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lava

Ya'll have seen this map right?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Look at the fine print:

quote:

Confirmed cases include presumptive positive cases


Definition of presumptive

1 : based on probability or presumption the presumptive nominee
2 : giving grounds for reasonable opinion or belief

So no, the numbers being reported are not facts. They are a best guess. All numbers reported are flawed due to the lack of testing, including confirmed cases and death.

Sorry, mate. But you really should change your language to say that the numbers you are using are based on presumption and steer well clear of calling those numbers facts. Especially since the folks generating those numbers do not call them facts either.

I'm not using the "Confirmed cases". I'm just using the deaths and recoveries.

And your claim sounds like a conspiracy theory. I'm assuming the official figures are as close to reality as we can get at this time.


When you step into the path of a truck going 80 mph and get splattered, when they do testing and find that you are positive for CoViD-19, then you will be marked as a CoViD-19 death. Of course, since you would be dead, I presume that you would not be able to include yourself in any chart.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 1004
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:08:43 PM   
z1812


Posts: 1631
Joined: 9/1/2004
From: Toronto Ontario
Status: offline
@ warspite and lava, are you including presumptive cats and bikes, or only confirmed ones. What about ex-cats and broken bikes?

We have 2 actual bikes and no cats, but we may get may get one more bike or even a cat. Perhaps both.

I just want to be sure of my percentage calculations. Thanks in advance for any clarity you can provide.

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 1005
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:09:09 PM   
Red2112

 

Posts: 1355
Joined: 9/9/2006
Status: offline
60 Ghz and Oxygen absorption...
https://ourgreaterdestiny.org/2020/02/5g-60-ghz-oxygen-absorption-you-and-coronavirus/

Interesting how Wuhan was the first city to test 5G.

Rub this on for awhile.

_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1006
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:13:22 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7530
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:




Those who say that Total Deaths and Total Recovered are "completely unrelated" are blind, deaf, and dumb. Together they make up the Total Resolved, and as such are obviously related.

The number I'm calculating is the only valid death rate we can derive that is based entirely on facts.

Everyone else is proffering opinions, beliefs, gut feelings, intuitions, etc. I'll pass.

The validity of Curtis' metric is called into question because the # of Deaths can exceed the # of Recovered. In that case, his metric would say that >100% of cases are fatal.

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 1007
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:15:29 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7530
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

@ warspite and lava, are you including presumptive cats and bikes, or only confirmed ones. What about ex-cats and broken bikes?

We have 2 actual bikes and no cats, but we may get may get one more bike or even a cat. Perhaps both.

I just want to be sure of my percentage calculations. Thanks in advance for any clarity you can provide.

I've never petted an ex-cat.
Cats multiply; I have not observed this behavior in bikes.

(in reply to z1812)
Post #: 1008
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:36:18 PM   
loki100


Posts: 6537
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRoadrunner


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

My data points are 4 bikes, 1 cat. Are your conclusions still valid?


Maybe it's just me, but when did cats start riding bikes?
Do they keep spare bikes in case visitors come over?

Why did Warspite1's graph not include your cat?

Proving that his numbers must be flawed. I'm going to green button him!

Will Curtis get it? I'm going to green button him.

Cats and dogs living together, with bikes ... ahhhhhhhhh! I'm going to green button them too!

RR




well, for various reasons we will always have at least 2 cats and 2 bikes in the house at any one time. The range up to 4 is variable.

So according to Curtis we have between 50-100% bike ownership among our cats?

Or, just maybe, the cat-bike ratio is arbitrary and perchance has some missing contextual data

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

... I'll pass.


thats nice, a bit like the kidney stone I've just got rid of?


_____________________________


(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 1009
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:45:54 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11987
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

The validity of Curtis' metric is called into question because the # of Deaths can exceed the # of Recovered. In that case, his metric would say that >100% of cases are fatal.


False. My figure is total deaths / total resolved. Total resolved = total deaths + total recovered.

_____________________________

My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1010
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:48:46 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 42013
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

@ warspite and lava, are you including presumptive cats and bikes, or only confirmed ones. What about ex-cats and broken bikes?

We have 2 actual bikes and no cats, but we may get may get one more bike or even a cat. Perhaps both.

I just want to be sure of my percentage calculations. Thanks in advance for any clarity you can provide.
warspite1

Z1812 why do you have to complicate things with additional data points?? I've given you the facts for the UK. 0 Cats and 3 Bikes. Then loki had to complicate things by bring in more data and suggesting a time thingy - how the hell do I model that in excel? I've only got a little brain... And now you are bringing in more data to analyse. No this is not fair, it's not, it's not.

I'm sorry but I'm only dealing in facts (my facts are the facts and everything else is white noise and shall be disregarded).

In the United Kingdom at present there are 0 cats and 3 bikes and they all reside chez warspite.

Psst - could you work out some percentages to go with my pie chart please?



_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to z1812)
Post #: 1011
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:51:49 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7530
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

The validity of Curtis' metric is called into question because the # of Deaths can exceed the # of Recovered. In that case, his metric would say that >100% of cases are fatal.


False. My figure is total deaths / total resolved. Total resolved = total deaths + total recovered.

I'm sorry - I misunderstood. But how can a metric that excludes total cases be meaningful?

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 1012
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 4:53:22 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline
For you Lemay:

GT’s Definitive Guide to Panicking During the Coronavirus Pandemic

quote:

There has been a lot of confusion during the chaos of the coronavirus plague and pandemic. The CDC has said that the current outbreak of stupidity may be worse than coronavirus. Do not listen to them! We are hear to set the record straight and ensure that you reject all reason in this crucial time.


https://genesiustimes.com/gts-definitive-guide-to-panicking-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

If you look at the picture of the person wrapped up, you will notice that his mask does not cover his nose!

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 1013
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 5:08:20 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11987
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

The validity of Curtis' metric is called into question because the # of Deaths can exceed the # of Recovered. In that case, his metric would say that >100% of cases are fatal.


False. My figure is total deaths / total resolved. Total resolved = total deaths + total recovered.

I'm sorry - I misunderstood. But how can a metric that excludes total cases be meaningful?

How could a metric that includes total cases be anything but nonsense, since we don't know how they will resolve.

_____________________________

My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1014
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 5:09:00 PM   
RichG

 

Posts: 96
Joined: 11/28/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Red2112

60 Ghz and Oxygen absorption...
https://ourgreaterdestiny.org/2020/02/5g-60-ghz-oxygen-absorption-you-and-coronavirus/

Interesting how Wuhan was the first city to test 5G.

Rub this on for awhile.


Thanks for returning the laugh

https://fullfact.org/online/wuhan-5g-coronavirus/

< Message edited by RichG -- 4/7/2020 5:14:04 PM >


_____________________________


(in reply to Red2112)
Post #: 1015
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 5:10:02 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11987
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline
No Nihilists yet? Surely someone wants to assert that nothing is knowable?

_____________________________

My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site

(in reply to RichG)
Post #: 1016
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 5:12:28 PM   
Lobster


Posts: 3912
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline
So I guess no one has died of the virus. They have all died of pneumonia and/or organ failure. My daughter says everyone they send home from the hospital on their feet is a victory. She also said the deaths vs recovered is far worse than they imagined it would be. My wife has contact dermatitis so we keep a good supply of nitrile gloves on hand. We sent them all to my daughter to help her out. So while you are all worried about how many have the virus total my daughter is only concerned about those who come to her hospital vs those that walk out. She said the ones not serious enough to be in a hospital are not what she is concerned about. Maybe she is simply delirious from lack of sleep and all of you are much more knowledgeable about what is going on than she.

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

"There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1017
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 5:26:04 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No Nihilists yet? Surely someone wants to assert that nothing is knowable?


Certainly you can know nothing. There was an entire group of know nothings but I won't go into more details here.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 1018
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 5:29:54 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 42013
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

So I guess no one has died of the virus. They have all died of pneumonia and/or organ failure. My daughter says everyone they send home from the hospital on their feet is a victory. She also said the deaths vs recovered is far worse than they imagined it would be. My wife has contact dermatitis so we keep a good supply of nitrile gloves on hand. We sent them all to my daughter to help her out. So while you are all worried about how many have the virus total my daughter is only concerned about those who come to her hospital vs those that walk out. She said the ones not serious enough to be in a hospital are not what she is concerned about. Maybe she is simply delirious from lack of sleep and all of you are much more knowledgeable about what is going on than she.
warspite1

So who are you attacking now? All of the thread? And for what? WTH??

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 1019
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 4/7/2020 5:33:11 PM   
Lobster


Posts: 3912
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

So I guess no one has died of the virus. They have all died of pneumonia and/or organ failure. My daughter says everyone they send home from the hospital on their feet is a victory. She also said the deaths vs recovered is far worse than they imagined it would be. My wife has contact dermatitis so we keep a good supply of nitrile gloves on hand. We sent them all to my daughter to help her out. So while you are all worried about how many have the virus total my daughter is only concerned about those who come to her hospital vs those that walk out. She said the ones not serious enough to be in a hospital are not what she is concerned about. Maybe she is simply delirious from lack of sleep and all of you are much more knowledgeable about what is going on than she.
warspite1

So who are you attacking now? All of the thread? And for what? WTH??


I would suggest you try something to chill out.

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

"There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 1020
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