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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:46:12 AM   
RangerJoe


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Satellite images show Iran building burial pits, expanding cemetery for coronavirus victims

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/satellite-images-show-iran-building-burial-pits-expanding-cemetery-for-coronavirus-victims/

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 3:01:42 AM   
z1812


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https://quillette.com/2020/03/14/conceit-and-contagion-how-the-virus-shocked-europe/

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 3:32:02 AM   
Lobster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
Thanks for that very well written report. Now they are talking about a second wave? I have no idea what that means.


In past Pandemics, there can be two "peaks" of infection, a first and a second wave (often when initial restrictions from the first wave are relaxed) until enough people are infected to provide some herd immunity or the virus is contained.

Unfortunately, because this seems determined to spread around the world, it's quite possible that we'll see further waves of exported cases as it becomes prevalent in more countries, sparking new waves until it's either burned through or under control in most places.

I am seriously hoping for the scenario where we do eventually manage to control it before we get to "herd immunity" levels given how dangerous this virus is to many people.

Regards,

- Erik



I guess there's more to learn about this that will only be answered by the passage of time.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 3:42:21 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Hate to be bearer of bad tidings, but I think we've been looking at the statistics wrong. Here are the current figures:

156,478 cases
75,844 recovered
5833 deaths
(Source Wikipedia)

We had been comparing cases to deaths (5833/156478 = 3.7%).
But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).

That puts it far past a tour in Nam. I'm trying to find something that compares. So far I've got the Battle of Shiloh with 1728 vs 40335 = 4.3% for the Confederates (that doesn't count missing - many of which were dead). Gotta find something even worse.

This is definitely something you don't want to get.

(Edit: Confederate dead at Gettysburg sound closer. Stay tuned).

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 3/15/2020 3:54:18 AM >


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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 4:04:08 AM   
Canoerebel


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That's incorrect. The 5,833 who have died didn't come from a pool limited to them and those who have recovered. It's part of a much larger population including active cases.

Secondly, the early tallies may be swayed by local conditions. More than half of the deaths have come from China, which was Ground Zero when everything was new.

Similarly, in the USA, more than half the deaths have come from Washington State, a lot of them from a single nursing home that was overwhelmed. Elsewhere, to this early date, the number of deaths has been far less. Will the rate pick up, keep steady, or drop? We don't know yet.

No credible sources are predicting 7.7% mortality rates for this virus, to my knowledge. Many are at 3% or less. A considerable number are below 1%.

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Post #: 395
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 4:47:10 AM   
USSAmerica


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red2112

Today the goverment of Spain has declared a "state of alarm", pretty much the same restrictions as RFalvo69 has mentioned, except that no oficial documents are needed to be able to transit, but that could change in days to come. The goverment has also taken charge of all autonomic goverments too.

Aside from what RFalvo69 states with regards to how they had to adapt in a rush, we should also be aware that China has very well documented all there cases and findings of COVID-19, which in turn helps other countrys in there struggle with this virus. There´s no medals here folks!

Today we recived the sad news that my mom will not make it, she is now on morphine. The COVID-19 will take down with easy any elder with health issues, that´s a fact and this is REAL folks.


My condolences to you and your family, Red.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 4:58:33 AM   
RangerJoe


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Not only that for the deaths, there were probably other factors as well. If they already had other health problems, then how do you count the death.

As far as the cases go, those are only the known cases which would tend to be more severe. For those who had a mild case which never got tested, how are you going to count those unless you check for antibodies. That would be 60 million people to test in the Wuhan area alone, is it worth it? Are you going to personally pay for it? If not you, then whom?

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Post #: 397
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 5:10:20 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).


I have to correct that slightly: Total resolved cases equal the total of recovered + deaths = 81677. And the new death rate is 5833/81677 = 7.1%.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 7:44:04 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Hate to be bearer of bad tidings.....

But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).


I have to correct that slightly: Total resolved cases equal the total of recovered + deaths = 81677. And the new death rate is 5833/81677 = 7.1%.
warspite1

Have I missed something or isn't that just being alarmist? How can the death rate be compared just to one portion of those with the disease i.e. those that have recovered? Most people in the current cases category will be absolutely fine and we know this, so what's with the 7.1%?

In Italy, where there are almost 18,000 active cases the serious/critical number just over 1,500 so how can you dismiss this? I don't think you are the bearer of bad tidings; I think you've just got the analysis wrong.


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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 8:12:59 AM   
rico21

 

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After read over and over,
I have the impression that the hospital figures that we are given
are true.
However, can someone tell me the column of coronavirus deaths outside the hospital?

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 9:44:00 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

..
We had been comparing cases to deaths (5833/156478 = 3.7%).
But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).

...


Nope, you never sample on the outcome, especially with an unknown N (since too many countries are not testing properly we don't know how many people have a mild dose) or with a changing N (ie people are both infecting and recovering).

If you want to check the mathematic proofs suggest read Bayes (an English clergyman from the late 18C with time on his hands) but the flaw is in the reasoning it leads to.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 10:37:28 AM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

After read over and over,
I have the impression that the hospital figures that we are given
are true.
However, can someone tell me the column of coronavirus deaths outside the hospital?


Good question. If they don't, that would increase the current "official" mortality rate. News from Italy are horrible: ambulances not arriving... people dying at home... corpses not removed.

"Italian actor Luca Franzese [film Gomorrah] pleaded with authorities in Italy to collect his sister's body after she died of coronavirus in their home"

Terrifying.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 11:07:42 AM   
Red2112

 

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Thanks to those for there support. To all, remember this has to be a joint operation, this has nothing to do with left, right, up or down wing! Merit should be given to those who deserve it, no matter what regimen they are. Let´s be mature about this...

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 11:10:00 AM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
That would be 60 million people to test in the Wuhan area alone, is it worth it? Are you going to personally pay for it? If not you, then whom?


That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 11:25:14 AM   
Red2112

 

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Situation in Spain...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rZ_Qqyyb5M

People can stay home, but will see who will pay the bill´s, that goes for most goverments. Lucky enough, we have free health care here in Spain, but supplys are short worlwide. Will see how those countrys with private health tackle this, as well as what happens to the poor and homeless!

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 12:19:44 PM   
Red2112

 

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ECDC data/map...
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china

While the video above shows a full equiped team taken the first case into the ambulance, the truth is that in the coming days such measures were not taken. The ambulance team that took my mom from the nursing home to the hospital had NO protection at all, while they knew that she could have been infected. This brings alot of negligence to the scene of how the saturation can cause overload, tied to the lack of prevision. Some funural companies have refused to take on any victims of the COVID-19, which also goes to show how this will impact socially.

The decision to lockdown a country is not a easy one to take, the economical impact this can have is so drastic that it´s obvious that such a decision is a tough one, while also taking into account the social aspect of a lockdown. All of a sudden you are telling people to stay home, among other things! For those of us who did not live through WWII, this gives us a closer look at how it must have been in those days. Need to write, it helps me keep my mind off of things...

< Message edited by Red2112 -- 3/15/2020 12:20:52 PM >


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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 12:48:34 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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One number that might be crucially true.

South Korea's numbers are confirming that if hospitals are not overwhelmed the real (= developed, well organised + accessible healthcare state) death rate might be as low as 0,5%.

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

Massive testing + selective lockdown if necessary. As the Chinese, a highly competent bunch. Good for them. Two sort of societies: those that will do whatever it takes and those that won't. Strategies, approaches may be slightly different but the spirit is the same... there

PS now of course you have to list those that reach this "real" level

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 3/15/2020 12:51:38 PM >


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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 1:08:03 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
That would be 60 million people to test in the Wuhan area alone, is it worth it? Are you going to personally pay for it? If not you, then whom?


That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.


No, I am not sending that message. The cost is also ongoing until the people have either caught the virus or it is no longer in the population. China has not paid that sum, China has paid the cost of attempting to control the contagion there and it appears to be working. But once those controls are removed, either all at once or a little at a time, the contagion may return.

Also, a lot of the factories that are shut down are needed to produce the products needed elsewhere by the medical staffs to fight the contagion.

If the costs of the tests are $130 each time a person is tested and they may be tested multiple times, who pays for the test and where do the supplies come from? Will they be able to test enough to stop this?

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 1:11:47 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).


I have to correct that slightly: Total resolved cases equal the total of recovered + deaths = 81677. And the new death rate is 5833/81677 = 7.1%.


Those are the total known cases. Many cases may never be reported because they were mild or no symptoms developed.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 1:37:13 PM   
Lobster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus



That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.


What a load of politically motivated tripe.

< Message edited by Lobster -- 3/15/2020 1:39:58 PM >


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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 1:41:22 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
If the costs of the tests are $130 each time a person is tested and they may be tested multiple times, who pays for the test and where do the supplies come from? Will they be able to test enough to stop this?


But the strategy they chose did not need to test "60 million people" to fight and defeat -apparently- this virus. You're talking about a problem that does not exist in the first place.

Could they afford to pay that sum? Are you serious? China's GDP is around 13.000 USD billion. And you doubt they can afford errr 8 billion??

re the 2008 mess, China's stimulus package in November 2008 = US$ 586 billion

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 3/15/2020 2:47:07 PM >


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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 1:49:53 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
If the costs of the tests are $130 each time a person is tested and they may be tested multiple times, who pays for the test and where do the supplies come from? Will they be able to test enough to stop this?


But the strategy they chose did not need to test "60 million people" to fight and defeat -apparently- this virus. You're talking about a problem that does not exist in the first place.

Could they afford to pay that sum? Are you serious? China's GDP is around 13.000 USD billion. And you doubt they can't afford errr 8 billion??

re the 2008 mess, China's stimulus package in November 2008 = US$ 586 billion


The problem exists and will continue to exist until the Corona virus is eradicated. Until then, once people move around again then more people will be infected. So you will have to test and retest until there is a vaccine. Or would you keep the lockdown going until there is a vaccine and only vaccinated people are allowed to freely move around? Remember, a vaccine is not always guaranteed to keep people from getting the disease. A poor vaccine might even make any illness worse.

Just because they have the GDP does not mean that they will have the ability to pay the bill for the testing, nor the equipment and supplies needed be available, nor the trained people to take the samples, and do the testing.


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Post #: 412
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 1:51:04 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus



That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.


What a load of politically motivated tripe.


You don't have to like how the various parts of the real world deal with covid-19. It's in fact irrelevant. But reality won't disappear

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:03:01 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Those are the total known cases. Many cases may never be reported because they were mild or no symptoms developed.

But that's the evidence we have. If there are such mild cases out there that have resolved, the CDC evidently doesn't know about them. That makes it a baseless assumption.

For the evidence we have about all resolved cases, 7.1% fatality is the sad result.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:10:57 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Those are the total known cases. Many cases may never be reported because they were mild or no symptoms developed.

But that's the evidence we have. If there are such mild cases out there that have resolved, the CDC evidently doesn't know about them. That makes it a baseless assumption.

For the evidence we have about all resolved cases, 7.1% fatality is the sad result.
warspite1

Well there's not much point continuing down that track. If 7.1% gives you what you are looking for then fine. Personally I choose not to go down that route, and I'm sure in the fullness of time we'll know more.


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Post #: 415
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:12:27 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Have I missed something or isn't that just being alarmist? How can the death rate be compared just to one portion of those with the disease i.e. those that have recovered? Most people in the current cases category will be absolutely fine and we know this, so what's with the 7.1%?


It's just arithmetic. X number of cases have resolved. 7.1% were fatal. Other cases that haven't resolved yet can't be counted yet because we don't know the outcome of those cases.

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Post #: 416
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:17:30 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Just because they have the GDP does not mean that they will have the ability to pay the bill for the testing, nor the equipment and supplies needed be available, nor the trained people to take the samples, and do the testing.


I suppose any rational strategy is based on what can or can't be done. You're talking about a new outbreak (hopefully not) or wave (next winter they say?). I'm pretty sure every state is already thinking about that future scenario (if it can't be avoided and / or vaccines don't fix the problem). Needless to say, I don't know these plans.

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:18:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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Curtis, your math is way off. Using your method, the USA currently has more than a 100% fatality rate. That, of course, is impossible. Your method is way, way, way off. At least three have brought this to your attention, but you're digging in your heals and insisting on using a seriously flawed method that is in fact impossible.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/15/2020 2:19:02 PM >

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Post #: 418
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:20:14 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Curtis, your math is way off. Using your method, the USA currently has more than a 100% fatality rate. That, of course, is impossible. Your method is way, way, way off. At least three have brought this to your attention, but you're digging in your heals and insisting on using a seriously flawed method that is in fact impossible.

Huh? Let's see your math on that.

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Post #: 419
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/15/2020 2:20:22 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Have I missed something or isn't that just being alarmist? How can the death rate be compared just to one portion of those with the disease i.e. those that have recovered? Most people in the current cases category will be absolutely fine and we know this, so what's with the 7.1%?


It's just arithmetic. X number of cases have resolved. 7.1% were fatal. Other cases that haven't resolved yet can't be counted yet because we don't know the outcome of those cases.
warspite1

But look at the number of active cases and then the number in intensive care. Yes it's arithmetic but fits nicely into the lies, damned lies and statistics camp. Sure, the number of intensive care cases within the active cases may increase - and the number that dies increases, but then I'm not hanging my hat on the assumption that none of the active cases not in intensive care get worse either.

I just think its unhelpful to be bandying around mortality rates of over 7% when we know nothing of the sort.


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