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OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 1:36:53 PM   
Zorch

 

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I thought this might be helpful...

Your most pressing questions about the new coronavirus, answered https://www.sciencenews.org/article/new-coronavirus-outbreak-your-most-pressing-questions-answered

How the new coronavirus stacks up against SARS and MERS https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers

Can the coronavirus outbreak be contained? https://www.sciencenews.org/article/can-wuhan-new-coronavirus-outbreak-be-contained
Post #: 1
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 2:27:48 PM   
RangerJoe


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Thank you.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 2
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 3:12:40 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25104
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

_____________________________


(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 3
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 3:21:55 PM   
Zorch

 

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Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

Sage advice.

There is also the CB-AE virus that has 100% mortality.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 4
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 3:40:12 PM   
rico21

 

Posts: 2770
Joined: 3/11/2016
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Where is this new wargame, on steam?
The game was be traducted from Chinese?
Could I download it on 5G?
Why isn't it on Kickstarter?
In last news, Warvirus in development...

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 5
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 3:52:15 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25104
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

Sage advice.

There is also the CB-AE virus that has 100% mortality.


Aye. But there are certain mitigating features that can reduce the mortality. Both of my 2x2 partners are still alive and well, thank goodness. I believe that the 'dilution' effect from having twice as many partners was protective.

Also, one of the survivors of that game went on to challenge me in a 1x1 campaign. He is thankfully still alive. But I reckon that previous low-dose exposure to the CB-AE virus left him with a certain degree of protective immunity.

_____________________________


(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 6
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 4:43:37 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7530
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

Sage advice.

There is also the CB-AE virus that has 100% mortality.


Aye. But there are certain mitigating features that can reduce the mortality. Both of my 2x2 partners are still alive and well, thank goodness. I believe that the 'dilution' effect from having twice as many partners was protective.

Also, one of the survivors of that game went on to challenge me in a 1x1 campaign. He is thankfully still alive. But I reckon that previous low-dose exposure to the CB-AE virus left him with a certain degree of protective immunity.

Just make sure he doesn't become a super-spreader...

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 5:34:07 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 17770
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From: Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

Sage advice.

There is also the CB-AE virus that has 100% mortality.





_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 8
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 5:35:00 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 17770
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From: Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.





_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 9
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 7:02:16 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.






I agree. The media has to hype things up to make it more newsworthy.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 10
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 7:50:19 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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Well, to amend my previous comments, it appears that the WHO is classifying this outbreak as a major global health issue today. But that doesn't mean dink for the world at large. They also said that twice for Ebola and Polio in 2014. Regional-yes-but hardly global health issues.

_____________________________


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Post #: 11
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 8:13:23 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Well, to amend my previous comments, it appears that the WHO is classifying this outbreak as a major global health issue today. But that doesn't mean dink for the world at large. They also said that twice for Ebola and Polio in 2014. Regional-yes-but hardly global health issues.


That is so they can extract more money from countries, especially the United States even though it is mostly a mainland Chinese concern at the present.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 12
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 8:55:32 PM   
Blond_Knight


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Im at home with Influenza not dying as we speak.

Those adverse to making a donation to the WHO can make one directly to me. :)

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 13
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 9:05:44 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 25104
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Blond_Knight

Im at home with Influenza not dying as we speak.

Those adverse to making a donation to the WHO can make one directly to me. :)


I'm sorry, my good man, but I will require the PCR/Rapid antigen test results confirming that diagnosis before tendering my donation. God forbid that I should send you a donation for the common cold! If malingering / goldbricking on the sick lists was financially rewarding, I'd have retired by now.

Also, I assume that donations should be in the denomination of "Whiskey, Bourbon"?

_____________________________


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Post #: 14
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 9:59:12 PM   
Zorch

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Blond_Knight

Im at home with Influenza not dying as we speak.

Those adverse to making a donation to the WHO can make one directly to me. :)


I'm sorry, my good man, but I will require the PCR/Rapid antigen test results confirming that diagnosis before tendering my donation. God forbid that I should send you a donation for the common cold! If malingering / goldbricking on the sick lists was financially rewarding, I'd have retired by now.

Also, I assume that donations should be in the denomination of "Whiskey, Bourbon"?

In addition, a specialist Dr. will visit your home to ensure compliance with all aspects of quarantine protocol.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 15
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 10:26:52 PM   
demyansk


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We still don't need any additional viruses to our cesspool. If it hits the homeless in California, it will be a disaster. I don't trust the Chinese government and just like 1986 Chernobyl, lies and more lies.

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 16
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 11:12:43 PM   
Lobster


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If it hits Africa all bets are off.

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Post #: 17
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 11:13:51 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Blond_Knight

Im at home with Influenza not dying as we speak.

Those adverse to making a donation to the WHO can make one directly to me. :)


I'm sorry, my good man, but I will require the PCR/Rapid antigen test results confirming that diagnosis before tendering my donation. God forbid that I should send you a donation for the common cold! If malingering / goldbricking on the sick lists was financially rewarding, I'd have retired by now.

Also, I assume that donations should be in the denomination of "Whiskey, Bourbon"?

In addition, a specialist Dr. will visit your home to ensure compliance with all aspects of quarantine protocol.





If you drink a liter of Jack Daniels, the influenza will not bother you.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 18
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 11:17:26 PM   
Lobster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you drink a liter of Jack Daniels, the influenza will not bother you.


You could probably step in front of a bus and survive the impact.

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

"There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

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Post #: 19
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/30/2020 11:57:08 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 5863
Joined: 11/16/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you drink a liter of Jack Daniels, the influenza will not bother you.


You could probably step in front of a bus and survive the impact.


Especially if the bus is not moving.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 20
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 1:40:36 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7530
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you drink a liter of Jack Daniels, the influenza will not bother you.


You could probably step in front of a bus and survive the impact.


Especially if the bus is not moving.

Unless you are extremely dumb, or an 18 wheeler is coming the other direction..

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 21
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 3:19:20 AM   
Zap


Posts: 3646
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From: LAS VEGAS TAKE A CHANCE
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Why did they name it after a beer?

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Post #: 22
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 5:04:16 AM   
Zovs


Posts: 4769
Joined: 2/23/2009
From: United States
Status: online
quote:

breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.


Do you really have to ask that?

I mean the whole time I was stationed at Fort Bliss every Thursday night was 19 cent Corona night in Juárez, and every Friday morning during our Post Run at 0615 we be not only gasping for breath from our run but gagging for air due to all the nasty smelling farts in front of us. Every 5 minutes you see a soldier who dropped out of formation to puke up his share of $1.14 - $1.71 worth in beer.

Fun times you say? Or was the Chinese in kohoots with the Mexicans experimenting with chemical warfare in 1987 - 1988?

I know where I am placing my bets...






< Message edited by Zovs -- 1/31/2020 5:06:48 AM >


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(in reply to Zap)
Post #: 23
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 10:29:57 AM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 712
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

Where is this new wargame, on steam?


Yup.

https://store.steampowered.com/app/246620/Plague_Inc_Evolved/

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to rico21)
Post #: 24
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 11:26:13 AM   
Lobster


Posts: 3912
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you drink a liter of Jack Daniels, the influenza will not bother you.


You could probably step in front of a bus and survive the impact.


Especially if the bus is not moving.

Unless you are extremely dumb, or an 18 wheeler is coming the other direction..


Or extremely drunk. Here's a hint. Jack Daniels.

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

"There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 25
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 3:10:47 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 712
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Blond_Knight

Im at home with Influenza not dying as we speak.


Same here. I spent four days in bed and now I'm fine - just in time for the Coronavirus' formal arrival in Italy.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Blond_Knight)
Post #: 26
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 3:16:12 PM   
Sieben


Posts: 24
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Status: offline
I hope you folks are still laughing when the virus establishes itself in your country.

_____________________________

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Preserving the Past for the Future

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Post #: 27
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 3:53:09 PM   
rico21

 

Posts: 2770
Joined: 3/11/2016
Status: offline
At first, I was very scared!
This thing that crosses the entire planet at a crazy speed here must cost a crazy nut!
Then when I learned that it was free, I breathed!

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 28
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 4:26:54 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 34402
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From: Vermont, USA
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I'll feel much less concerned about it if we can see the case count stabilizing or declining. Right now, even using the "official" figures from China, it's growing at an alarming rate if that continues for another few weeks.

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Director of Product Development




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(in reply to rico21)
Post #: 29
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 1/31/2020 5:30:45 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7530
Joined: 3/7/2010
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Something new has emerged about 2019-nCoV.

'The first case of coronavirus being spread by a person with no symptoms has been found' https://www.sciencenews.org/article/first-case-coronavirus-spread-person-no-symptoms-found-germany


(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 30
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