From: Utlima Thule
presume this is an AI game?
So first the AI 'moves' by very different rules to the player (since it can't anticipate its allowed to respond faster).
General pt, I reckon that the period say May invasion - December will shed an allied player around 400 VP.
Bit late, but its worth asking yourself what you wanted in Italy once you got Rome, that is a lot of losses for actually not very much (in the end you prob won't get to S Germany that way.
Generally what you want is damaged German units not to repair. Again this might be a bit late but I like to use 8 AAF on tanks and trucks, both are key components to the German mobile formations. The idea is you fight them at full strength (you really can't avoid this) and the next time they are still weakened.
More tactical, a combination of interdiction (hits supply/replacements and worsens any retreat), a 'unit' bombing mission and allocated ground support will help. This will cause a lot of disruptions and disrupted elements don't fight, even better they are more likely to be damaged or destroyed if you win the battle.
Good news, once you start to take German cities in 1945 the VP recovers - you get both occupation VP and 'bombing' VP (as those assets can't produce for the axis).
its HtH game, but you might want to have a read of the AAR I'm doing, might put some of this into context.