Not sure yet, I've done better than I expected so far. My opp. divided some of his Panzer and infantry units, so that made it a bit easier for me to push those back.
Germans get 100 VP points each for surrender of Holland and Belgium (and the city point value for hexes). Those are givens in this scene, I think. As are the VP hexes up to around Paris, Dunkerque, and Calais. That's about a draw on victory level I think.
Allies have to hold Dunkirk and Calais or chance British withdraw ... So if Germans get one or both of those cities, I think it is pretty sure Germans win. Or if they get Paris, pretty sure win. That's just eyeballing the map. I think a hyper-aggressive German player will surely win (and a overly cautious Allied player will surely lose.) Not sure of replacement schedule for Allies, I forgot to check that. But so far, it seems pretty balanced (or maybe we aren't playing it "right"! LoL)
It seems like a good novice level scene, esp. for learning about "internal support" formations and supply and air units. Expert player probably will be bored by scene, but me (just a kibitzer) think this would be a good "beer & pretzels" scene
below is @beginning Allies turn 4
Belgians fight on, but will fall next turn.
Supplies are beginning to pick up a bit.
Formations / Units that don't move,
get asset sharing and are up to about 45% supply now.
Units that move (even just one hex) are up to about 30% after their move expense.
Tempting to race Allied formations up to the front,
but that just burns their supplies.
Better to let them gas up while they can and then try to fight with a full tank