From: San Antonio, TX
ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
Rommel is stopped at El-Alamein. There is nothing that the US being in the shooting war really changes at this stage – or at least not such it makes a difference to what has just happened.
But there is no doubt that things will be tougher – much tougher – for the USSR and the Commonwealth going foward. Torch doesn’t happen for one thing. The Afrika Korps may still fall back on Tunisia but they aren’t going to be dislodged easily and the retreat will be more ordered. Malta will likely have to be abandoned. This does not have a major strategic effect but became a symbol of defiance.
The above is not at all clear to me. The fall of Malta would have dramatically changed the situation in North Africa. There is good reason to believe that with sufficient fuel and other supplies, Rommel would have broken through and captured Alexandria and Cairo. From there, the Axis could have advanced further into the Middle East (where there were a number of Arabs willing to fight against the British), closed off the southern supply route to Russia through Iran and Iraq, and seized the oil fields. And yes, Malta might well have fallen without the Spitfires delivered by the Wasp and especially without the fuel delivered by the SS Ohio.
One last point: after Singapore and Tobruk, Malta might have been the last straw for the British public, and Churchill might have been forced to resign as Prime Minister.
That being said, I believe that Roosevelt would have found a way to get a declaration of war against Germany, because it was an ally of Japan, and because the U-boats would likely have continued to sink American destroyers escorting the Atlantic convoys. It would have taken longer, and there would not have been the same enthusiasm and mobilization of the economy, but at a wild guess the outcome would have been delayed only a few months.
Warspite1's post is filled with outcome conjecture. The war, in the absence of the Americans, could have gone myriad different directions. No outcome that he conjectures is clear and quantifiable, merely reasonable possibilities.
These 'what-ifs' detract from the OP question, IMO. The question is not, "what would WWII have looked like if the United States had never joined the fracas in Europe", but "would the US have declared war on Germany?" One discussion doesn't look at all like the other.
Not being pissy here, but just wanted to stick to the OP question / discussion, not devolve into what tangential thread respondents like to pull at.