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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 4:59:04 PM   
BillBrown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

Contrarian/devil's advocate time!

On the importance of credibility: Balance and enjoyment to play should take precedent.

John, I would caution you to not over course-correct and strip the IJ economy bare. You're never going to please everyone with this mod (even purists disagree on scen 1 vs 2). A clear change log enables players to walk in with an understanding of the delta between stock and BTS.

Speaking selfishly, it would be a shame to see the economy become so tight that it discourages all but the most efficient Japanese player from having a go. 2 cents, and apologies to Dillworth if I come off a disagreeing brat.




I agree with this sentiment, One of the reasons I like this scenario as Allies is that Japan is viable into 1945.

(in reply to Cheesesteak)
Post #: 91
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 5:04:30 PM   
John 3rd


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Shipyard Expansion:

The Japanese build two new slipways to accommodate the building needs of the AltHis. We add two Sz-80 yards at Pt. Arthur and Shanghai. Originally we had a debate about as where these yards could be 'realistically' added and those were the final choices. Am always open to other ideas for placement if anyone has them. The ships they construct appear in those base hexes.

The remaining 40 points is split into equal additions to the Yokohoma, Osaka, Fukuyama, and Hiroshima Yards.


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Post #: 92
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 5:57:33 PM   
John 3rd


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Am getting a serious numbers headache! In comparing BTS to DBB these are the differences in category numbers:

Heavy Industry +485
Light Industry +414
Armaments +10
Vehicles +68
Engines +702
Assembly +189

Engines and Vehicles jumped out at me. Am currently doing a comparison of Engines and increased Aircraft Production. Will Post that in a few minutes once I am done tabulating.

Checking notes on the other areas.

Got to say THANK YOU to my wife who let me buy a second monitor so I can run two at once. Damn. It does make this comparative work a lot easier.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/19/2019 5:58:13 PM >


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Post #: 93
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 8:49:03 PM   
John 3rd


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Worked my way thru my old notes and these numbers. Will have changes in all areas later tonight or tomorrow morning.


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Post #: 94
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 2:23:07 PM   
John 3rd


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It is a bright and lovely morning in Northern Colorado.

Looks like I have all the plans for the re-tool of the economy and then we can get down to business with all other changes.

Will be Posting a series of comments applying to all facets of the Home Isles economy.


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Post #: 95
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 2:54:58 PM   
John 3rd


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We'll start with the easy ones first.

Heavy Industry
DB starts Japan's HI at 6.950. The current version of BTS is at 7,435. This is a net gain of 485. With Michael's reset, it is again down to 6,950. Increased HI SHOULD only be 250 so we'll add 75 to Port Arthur and Shanghai (where the new slipways are) and then 50 to both Yokohoma and Hiroshima.

Light Industry
DB has Dec 7th start at 9,560. BTS sets it at 9,974. Net BS gain of 414.

Reset to 9,560 and add 300 to reflect additional work. We add LI to Shanghai (75), Port Arthur (75), and Yokohoma, Nagasaki, Osaka, Hiroshima, and Fukuyama (30 each).

Armaments
DB has the war start at 620 while BTS is 630.

Reset but we'll add a total of 50 to starting number with 25 being added to Sendai and Yokohoma.

Vehicles
DaBabes has 72 but BTS raises it to 140.

That is a BS number and I have no idea as to WHY it got bumped that high. OK. Fine. Dial it back 90 for a slight bump of 18. This reflects the added heavy equipment going into the Assault Brigades, small Engineering units, and HQs.

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/20/2019 2:55:29 PM >


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Post #: 96
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 3:20:14 PM   
John 3rd


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We now shift to aircraft and aircraft engines:

Starting War Productions Numbers
DaBabes
A6M2 56
Jake 27
Betty 25
Nell 22
Val 12
Mavis 6
Pete 3
Glen 9

BTS
A6M2 130
Jake 48
Betty 50
Nell 22
Nell Kai 6
Val 60
Emily 12
Tina 10
Kate 50
Kate-C 6
Glen 9
Liz 8

Those number are not too far off what was originally planned but they are high. Reduce A6M2 to 100 (down 30), Tina down to 5(down 5), Liz down to 4 (down 4) and Val/Kate production down to 40 (10 down each).

The original starting production (total aircraft) was 375 and BTS had it starting at 564. That number is now 505 for a net increase in aircraft production of 130 planes.

Engines
I will list the DaBabes number first then BTS after:
Mitsubishi
-31 50--45 Alf-Pete--No change.
-32 60--320 Betty, Emily, Jill--drop 100 down to 220--this is still a rise of 160 engines.
-33 65--230 Nell, Nell Kai, Jake, Val, Tina--drop 30 to 200--increase total of 135.
-42 2--2 Nothing
-43 10--10 Nothing

Net expansion of Mitsubishi engines is 195.

Nakajima
-5 7--10 Align to 7 so this is a drop of 3.
-34 10--45 George--Net gain of 35.
-35 180--490 Liz, Kate, A6M2--drop by 120 to 370--Net gain of 190 engines.
-44 10--0 Jill--Align to DB--Net gain 10.
-45 30--30 Nothing

Net expansion of Nakajima Engines is 238.

The total engine expansion is 433.

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Post #: 97
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 3:27:48 PM   
John 3rd


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That should just about cover the areas of the economy.

We will now have to shift over to the COST of this expansion. Lets summarize the additions/subtractions listed above:

Shipyards +200
Heavy Industry +250
Light Industry +300
Armaments +50
Vehicles +18
Aircraft +130
Engines +433

Industry Expansion--+818 Points
Aircraft Industry Expansion--+563 Points

Total Expansion is--1,381.




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Post #: 98
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 3:45:38 PM   
John 3rd


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DaBabes Starting Numbers:

Resources 7,322,400
Oil 3,232,400

Supply 3,081,338
Fuel 4,490,550

Here is where my notes have evaporated. I REMEMBER us splitting the expansion 50-50 between resources/oil and supply/fuel. Cannot find that in notes however.

Taking 1381 expansion number we cut it in half to 690.5. If my memory is correct then THAT number (690,500) comes off EACH of the above 4 categories. The goal was reflect the gradual expansion of the industry from 1937 to Dec 7, 1941 by pulling down ALL areas reflecting growth, investment, and return over the four years of this period.

New Starting Numbers would be:

Resource 6,631,900
Oil 2,541,900

Supply 2,390,838
Fuel 3,800,050

Total cost of expansion is then 2,762,000 in terms of all starting numbers.

This economic stuff always provides a pretty good headache for me. Any Japanese economic people want to comment?


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Post #: 99
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 9:37:40 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

Contrarian/devil's advocate time!

On the importance of credibility: Balance and enjoyment to play should take precedent.

John, I would caution you to not over course-correct and strip the IJ economy bare. You're never going to please everyone with this mod (even purists disagree on scen 1 vs 2). A clear change log enables players to walk in with an understanding of the delta between stock and BTS.

Speaking selfishly, it would be a shame to see the economy become so tight that it discourages all but the most efficient Japanese player from having a go. 2 cents, and apologies to Dillworth if I come off a disagreeing brat.




I agree with this sentiment, One of the reasons I like this scenario as Allies is that Japan is viable into 1945.


I'm playing a Scen 1 game in Dec 45!! Miller lasted how long vs Mr Kane? There are opportunities to play late if you can manage the economy and use your tactical tools strategically.

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Post #: 100
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 9:42:55 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

My Real Life experiences within the Mod has been one of continually trying to get more FUEL into the HI instead of Oil. Supply is OK but iffy in the HI and my Heavy Industry Stockpile is only around 190,000 presently.



ITAKLinus has done a masterful job above. Like Mike Solli, he works in logistics, so we can be pretty sure he's looking hard at how this all works.

This MOD makes a lot of changes supposing military decisions were different during the interwar periods. What remains the same though is the economy. As BTS has been set up the economic figures were changed in order to make the greatly enlarged OOB, airframe, engine and ship manufacturing actually work to bring the game into the later stages.

If those changes are not made, this MOD won't be playable, even by a conservative IJ player who gets to the historical perimeter and stops. He's put relative numbers above to show this. The deficits would be too great in terms of resources and oil to support the expanded industry, and without the expanded industry you can't get all of the supply for those airframes and engine factories. He's shown it would take the conquest of all of China and India (with industry, resources and oil relatively undamaged) to equal the availability of those in BTS to make it all work.

Your HI is low because you're using so much to make things like airframes and ships and armament. In the "It's the Economy, Stupid" AAR there are a lot of commentary to this effect by PaxMondo and others who noticed the early war production is off the scales by stock/DBB starting points, or what most players make in that era.

So the question then is whether you want to stick to the idea this is somehow historically possible, or just let all of that go and make this a complete alternate world MOD where somehow Japan has more economic ability and therefore can do all of the things you want with ships and planes.


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Good comments Obvert.

The goal within the BTS World is:
1. To have an expanded shipyard capability (2 80 Point Slipways added) with some minor additions elsewhere (40 more points worth).
2. Expanded HI and LI to accommodate the IJN's increased preparedness
3. Expanded Armaments to handle the slightly increased/changed IJN LCUs, additional ship board guns, and sundry needs
4. Expanded IJN Aircraft Research and slight bump to 12-7-41 production

Those are the salient points of addition.

To then reflect those changes the starting Fuel, Oil, Resources, and Supply must be adjusted downward.

This is the economic starting point for Dec 7th.



I think you're misreading the work ITAKLinus has done.

None of us are pointing toward how much you have in stockpiles at the beginning the war in this mod.

All of my comments are about how the economy works after the game begins. It WON'T work without the increases to the number of oil/recourses production centres that have been added and have caused all of this dialogue. These are production centres, and if left as they have been those will make up all of your deficits based on DBB vs BTS easily.

So if you propose to bring those back to the level of DBB/stock not only in the Home Islands but in the outlying Co-Prosperity Sphere, then you will simply have an economy bled dry by all of that industry you're adding.

If you're planning to revert those numbers and lower stockpiles, then you're really in trouble and won't make it out of 42.

< Message edited by obvert -- 12/20/2019 9:45:16 PM >


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Post #: 101
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 9:49:27 PM   
BillBrown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

Contrarian/devil's advocate time!

On the importance of credibility: Balance and enjoyment to play should take precedent.

John, I would caution you to not over course-correct and strip the IJ economy bare. You're never going to please everyone with this mod (even purists disagree on scen 1 vs 2). A clear change log enables players to walk in with an understanding of the delta between stock and BTS.

Speaking selfishly, it would be a shame to see the economy become so tight that it discourages all but the most efficient Japanese player from having a go. 2 cents, and apologies to Dillworth if I come off a disagreeing brat.




I agree with this sentiment, One of the reasons I like this scenario as Allies is that Japan is viable into 1945.


I'm playing a Scen 1 game in Dec 45!! Miller lasted how long vs Mr Kane? There are opportunities to play late if you can manage the economy and use your tactical tools strategically.



And how many don't make it out of 1943?

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 102
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/20/2019 9:55:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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If a Japanese player doesn't make it out of 1943, it's not because of the game. It's because he quit.

The game's points system works very well. I think just about any experienced Japanese layer should make it to 1945, if he doesn't toss in the towel first. The only exceptions would be in competitive mismatches or if the Japanese player doesn't know his stuff and kills his economy.

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Post #: 103
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/21/2019 12:11:52 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

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Sorry if I reply a little bit late: I was travelling back to Europe for a period of R&R. I made it happen during Christmas time and I'm very happy of this coincidence. Some time spent with the family and the beloved ones is always welcomed.

I thank everyone for the nice words, especially Obvert. One little clarification for everyone: Mike Solli is a proper logistician in the US Army, I am a fake one in the humanitarian field That's eventually why he cares for his soldiers, while I have the "Stalin touch"


Anyway. I am personally convinced, and I have tried to show why, that the economy of BTS simply can't run with normal resources settings.

Now. There are few options, as far as I can imagine:
1) Reducing the industrial potential.
2) Keeping the modifications and saying that Japanese has a fantasy economy.
3) Modifying stuff in order to give a somehow realistic feeling without breaking the entire system.


I am a Scen1 maniac, so I am for the historical stuff set up by developers. However, I think that solution 3) could be somehow feasible and justifiable.
For example: an increas of resources is something I strongly disapprove. But, if you put a reduced production in Japan/Manchuria/China and, at the same time, increase more the peripherical amount you can capture in random sh@tty locations in the DEI, it can be justifiable.
What I mean is that there are more resources but are more remotely positioned and more exposed to enemy action.
Therefore, a tradeoff is introduced: more resources theoretically available, but:
A) less available in the beginning putting pressure on Japan.
B) more exposed to enemy action making difficoult to protect them for ever and ever
C) you have to ship them to Onshu (and this one is the biggest element)

It's possible to justify that. Somehow. And the tradeoff is so evident, that it's also somehow acceptable by an allied player. For example, many rare materials available in the DEI are, currently, not sent back to Onshu because Japanese players have enough in China/Manchuria/Hokkaido. Instead, putting more stuff in the DEI simulates the availability of rare materials in the area and pressures Japan to import them, something they historically had to do.


It's just an example to show that I have no prejudice at all against an increase in the availability of raw materials. Introducing many tradeoffs and limitations, it's possible to rework the system without breaking it.

In terms of OIL/FUEL, it's very difficoult to increase the amount with some kind of justification, though.


If one wants to run a huge army, coupled with a huge airforce and the navy we all know, has to have some kind of limitations, it's obvious also in gameplay terms. In line of principle, Japan can run one the these three elements quite easily. Problem being that it has to renounce to the other two.
I tend, for example, to run very intense gound campaigns. I am therefore stingy as hell with fleet usage and with the airforce. I use well over 500 2E in constant ground attack in China, but it's an investment I do in order to reduce future expenditures on that front.

What I am trying to say is that it could be theoretically possible to run an overwhelmingly expanded industry. But it's possible to do it at the expenses of operations.
Running the fleet AND the industry AND the army AND the airforce at the levels seen in this MOD is just too much.


I make another example: I am lavish in my industrial expenses. I am the king of overproduction. I really really push the economy to its limits to have more stuff to throw in battle. Given my usual Japanese strategy, I tend and have to push a lot the economy.

It has many drawbacks, such as an heavy reliance over static defences, which is the poorest form of defence. And limiting the use of the fleet to the least.

Tradeoffs, as usal. If one modifies these tradeoffs set up in the stock game, many consequences are hidden and not immediately obvious, thus creating unintended results. An example being the shipbuilding modifications which enable a huge production of fihgters. I tend to think that the general economic model in the stock game is valid. It can be improved a lot, but it works just fine in general.


If I want to express tradeoffs to non-experts, I always express them in terms of 1E fighters.

It's a simple proxy to make everyone understand.

Tell the people that there are some CVs and CVLs arriving earlier, and people problably won't really grasp what it does mean.
Tell them that having CVs and CVLs arriving much earlier means almost 20.000 1E fighters in the last 10 months of 1943, and you'll see that even the least experienced player will get what is the magnitude of this change.

Sometimes (often?) it's more a matter of how information is presented rather than the content of it.


Now. Few other thoughts.

1) Developers have helped a lot japanese economy. I can make many examples. Japanese economy is already, by default, much much much better than its historical counterpart. Allied players have their other advantages, eh, I am talking about economy here.
2) Stock game has a quite forgiving economic system. It's difficoult to crew it up. It's difficoult not to remedy to mistakes. It's difficoult for the allied player to f@ck up everything to the point of non return.
3) An average player can master the economy to a level that is sufficient to have a decent performance over the years.
4) Most of the problems I have encountered in my games have been due to my errors, rather than the game balance. Too many fleet movements, too many bombing campaigns, high production levels, etcetcetc.

I stress especially this last point. And many games show that it's completely feasible to conduct Japanese well into '45 with an economy relatively healthy.



What I am pointing out in this topic are just few personal opinions. I have explored numbers in a couple of previous posts.


Thanks again everyone for the nice words and to BTS team for the prompt reply to questions arose from players about the topic, showing that, even with some unnecessary tensions born, I'm sure, from misunderstandings due to communications through a forum, they have taken into considerations concerns expressed by some of us.

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Post #: 104
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/21/2019 12:19:33 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If a Japanese player doesn't make it out of 1943, it's not because of the game. It's because he quit.

The game's points system works very well. I think just about any experienced Japanese layer should make it to 1945, if he doesn't toss in the towel first. The only exceptions would be in competitive mismatches or if the Japanese player doesn't know his stuff and kills his economy.




I make a separate post at this regard.



Your statements, Canoerebel, are just perfect.


I just add that killing the economy it's quite hard, at least in an irreversible way. Japanese economy is way more resilient than it was during the war.


Also, making it to 1945 in a relatively good shape is not absolutely impossible. It requires an approach which is quite cautious and, for someone, boring.

I would advice against giving the idea that Japanese economy is doomed to crash soon in the game or that it cannot reach late game. It is perfectly able to reach the very late game, even if sometimes in quite a bad shape.

Actually, I think that's not that hard for Japanese economy to reach late game in a comparatively better shape than it has done historically. Reaching it in a wonderful shape as some of the players here in the thread have achieved, it's another story. Probably very far from my competency level.

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Post #: 105
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/21/2019 9:08:15 PM   
John 3rd


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Now this is excellent discussion. Solid points from everyone and we are listening. ITAKLinus--That was another excellent and well thought out (not to mention well communicated) Posting.

The entire point of BTS is a plausible expansion that sets up a stronger IJN for the Opening two years of the war. That expansion is at a dangerous cost to the economy. We've just seen some of the back-and-forth of possibility detailed above. The economic changes detailed earlier have been made. Will need to look outside the HI next...

Am sending the files back to Michael so he can implement Brian's China changes into the Mod. When he gets done we'll go back to work bouncing ideas around.

Will continue with thoughts here so we'll let the discussion keep right on rolling.


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Post #: 106
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/21/2019 9:29:56 PM   
John 3rd


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Working off of IDAKLinus numbers and the current BTS vs DB #, this is what I get for the cost:

Resources need to drop 440,500
Oil needs to drop 617,800
Supply needs to drop 653,512
Fuel needs to drop 330,225

If we pull ALL of it from the HI starting point, then the stress and fear of immediate need to keep the economy running is pretty real for any JFB.



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Post #: 107
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/21/2019 9:31:02 PM   
John 3rd


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Going to try this and save the file to a different place to see what happens if I make the exact changes detailed above.

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Post #: 108
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/21/2019 11:21:10 PM   
John 3rd


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Files are headed to you Michael. Made all the changes.


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Post #: 109
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 8:52:00 PM   
John 3rd


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Was talking with Michael today and am seriously re-thinking the amount of increase to aircraft production. I slightly puled back A6M2, Val, and Kate production but think I need to do that even more to free up more of the economy.

We are wanting to play-test the Mod before releasing it. Tentatively we decided to play each other from Open to Feb 1942. I would like another pair of play-testers to help. Any takers interested?


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/23/2019 9:06:26 PM >


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Post #: 110
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 9:06:03 PM   
John 3rd


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I have pretty specific concerns for the players:

Japanese
1. The Economy and opinions on it for the first 6-8 weeks. Will probably need Tracker installed to watch and keep track of progress.
2. Japanese Deployment--does it work? CV allocation?

Allies
1. New Central Pacific/South Pacific deployment and base additions/changes. Do they work?
2. Allied DEI deployment, changes, and the Japanese changes.

Both
1. Big B's China changes.

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Post #: 111
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 9:26:28 PM   
BillBrown


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I have time to do a short play test as Allies, that is where my experience is, I only played 3 days as Japan.

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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 10:16:05 PM   
John 3rd


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THREE days Bill??!! Wow. How does one lose the Empire in only three days?

OK. Need a Japanese volunteer.

We're still looking at some time for Michael to get his changes done but if we have the testers lined up then we can move pretty fast.


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Post #: 113
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 10:59:41 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 16822
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
Wow. Just updated to a 27" monitor and went 1920x1080. HOLY CRAP! Think I am in love...

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Post #: 114
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 11:12:29 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

THREE days Bill??!! Wow. How does one lose the Empire in only three days?

OK. Need a Japanese volunteer.

We're still looking at some time for Michael to get his changes done but if we have the testers lined up then we can move pretty fast.



I lost my opponent, not the game.

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 115
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 11:14:03 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Wow. Just updated to a 27" monitor and went 1920x1080. HOLY CRAP! Think I am in love...


I use my 30" 2560 x 1600 main monitor and a 24" 1920 x 1200 secondary monitor. It makes things easy.

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 116
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/23/2019 11:18:15 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 16822
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
Was just funning with you on the three day comment.

I can barely deal with a the 27" let alone a 30". You go on with that bid screen!


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Reluctant Admiral Mod:
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Post #: 117
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/24/2019 12:44:16 AM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline
I like seeing a lot at once. I had to shrink this a bunch, but it show how much territory I can see at one time.
I am not trying to sound off, just saying that more pixels are a blessing.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 118
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/24/2019 1:45:15 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 16822
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
I just got a new monitor and now you have given me monitor envy...

BAD Bill! BAD BILL!!

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Reluctant Admiral Mod:
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(in reply to BillBrown)
Post #: 119
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/24/2019 2:53:00 AM   
AdmNelson


Posts: 550
Joined: 5/14/2001
From: New Mexico
Status: offline
I would be interested if you are still looking for a Japanese player.

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Post #: 120
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