ITAKLinus
Posts: 325
Joined: 2/22/2018 From: Italy Status: offline

I have done some analysis of Japanese economy from the screens posted here and from the ones posted some time ago on the italian forum. Considering I am a mediocre player, I might be completely wrong in what I state! Also, I point out that there are little to none strategic considerations here. I would have one million of them, but I decided to avoid writing them: I love strategic considerations, but for the time being I'd rather prefer speaking about brute numbers. Last, but not least in this start, I add that there is not a single comment on some other MOD's features (such as the whole discussion around George). I have my ideas, but, as stated in a previous post, everybody should be able to play even with flying Yamatos if that suits to them. I make a point of informing people of what they're goint to meet, though. Now, let's begin. RESOURCES That's the situation: Initial stock Scen1 7.322.000 BTS 7.172.000 DELTA: 150.000 Production Scen1 276.600 BTS 311.000 DELTA: +34.000 What does it mean? It means that there are 150.000 less resources in the warehouses on 7th dec but the production is higher. Precisely 34.000tons of resources more perday. Implications? Quite easily. In Scen1 there is a net requirement of 139.000 (for HIs) + 140.100 (for LIs) tons of resources perday. TOTAL: 279.100tons per day. With an easy calculation we have 276.00 (our daily production) minus 279.100 (our daly "expenditure") = 2.500 It means that we are short of 2.500tons of resources per day. In BTS, and we'll see later, resources requirements are: 147.00 (for HIs) + 153.060 (for LIs) tons of resources per day. TOTAL: 300.060tons per day. With the same easy calculation we have 311.00 (our daily production) minus 300.060 (our daily "expenditure") = 11.140 We therefore generate a surplus of 11.140 resources perday. Comparing the two above sets of data, results are pretty straightfoward. There is a difference of 13.640tons of resources perday between Scen1 and BTS. It also implies that, if BTS industry would have been put on top of Scen1 raw materials, we would have had a deficit of 23.460tons per day. Quite a big difference. NOTE: Having a surplus in resources means a lot to any Japanese player. It's not a matter of their availability, since most of Japs conquer enough of them in the DEI, it's a matter of transport. Conquering many locations in China stops Japanese needs, but it doesn't really enable to make large and deep stocks. Having so many resources readily available means 3 things: 1) Japan is much less scared by an attack on Kurili axis 2) Japan needs much less fuel to haul resources in case the player wants to make a little bit of stock 3) Industry can run at full speed and be increased without the usual increased burden of transferring more stuff to the locations in which the industry has been expanded. LIGHT INDUSTRIES Here is quite straightforward. Scen1 has a production of 9.340 LI. BTS has a production of 10.204 LI. It means that there are 864tons of supply made perday of difference. Not that much in theory. In practice it means a lot. With added resource base and these industries readily available, Japan can feed industrial expansion through these supplies. It's almost 26.000tons per month. If you consider that an infantry division not fighting consumes around 1.500tons per month, these industries can feed more than 17 divisions. Provided that the 1.500tons/month is correct, of course. Also, and that's the best part, LI expansion is wonderful if coupled with increased resource base. Basically, Japan rarely needs more HIs in mid to late game. Supplies are needed. Problem being that, in order to have them we need to expand early HIs. It means that we have a positive ROI after a long time and we increase the burden on our logistical network. Also, and that's the biggest element, we consume fuel to run HIs. With more resources and already built LIs, instead, we have a relatively weak increas in resources consumption, no need to ship and burn fuel and we have those damn supplies. Wonderful. Sadly, it cannot be done in Scen1 because 1 light industry repaired = 1.000 supplies. At 1ton of supply produced perday, we have recuperated our investment very very late in the game. Here there is no such a tradeoff. HEAVY INDUSTRIES A lot of fun here for Japanese aficionados. So much time spent on tables trying to fix everything in a decent manner. Scen1 has 13.900 HI from the industrial screen. In reality, that amounts to 6.950 HIs at 7Dec. They do consume 20xRES and 2xFUEL perHI point perday. They do produce 2xHI points and 2xSUPPLIES points perday. Scen1 has therefore a production/consumption of: 13.900 supplies produced perday 13.900 HI points produced perday 139.000 resources consumed perday 13.900 fuel consumed perday Now BTS, starting at 14.700 HIs: 14.700 supplies produced perday 14.700 HI points produced perday 147.000 resources consumed perday 14.700 fuel consumed perday The difference seems little to nonexperts. It's instead quite big. 14.700  13.900 gives a grand total of 800. 800HI perday and 800 supplies perday. It implies 24.000 supplies more per month. And 667 1E figher more permonth (800*30/36, where 800 are the daily HIs of delta, 30 days of the month and 36 the HI cost of a 1E fighter, 18HI for the engine and 18HI for the airframe respectively). It's quite a big jump. REFINERIES We are approaching the big topic, OIL, but we're not yet there. Refineries use OIL as input in order to produce FUEL and SUPPLIES. In Scen1 the daily production is as follow:  9.315 FUEL  1.035 SUPPLIES Big challenge is to keep refineries supplied with OIL, though. In BTS everything changes. We have 12.510 fuel produced perday (+3.195 daily or +95.850 monthly). And 1.390 supplies. These differences look, as usual, small to nonexpert eyes. They are instead quite substantial. Delta in supplies permonth is indeed 10.650 OIL By far the most important raw material on the map. Here we have a lot of changes. Initial production for Scen1 is 2.240 perday. It means 224 OIL points (Palembang has 900 if I am not wrong). Initial production for BTS is 5.950 perday. 595 points. Quite a big difference. Funniest element is that also the rest of the map has many more oilfields available to the Japanese. From the game in which I analysed the economy for the italian guy on the italian forum, it turned out he had a production of 38.600. Now, I made some math. The difference between Scen1 and BTS is 5.950 (or 595 OIL points) minus 2.240 (or 224 OIL points), leading to 3.710 (or 371 OIL points difference). But there is also some difference around in the map as far as I can see. The guy had the usual DEI, plus Magwe. Plus China (which nets other 160 OIL points). So, how is it possible to have a production of 38.600 without external "help"? Let me explain: SCEN1 224 initial OIL points 2.473 in the DEI 300 Magwe 160 China TOTAL = 3.157 (or.... 31.570 production) Now, given that the difference at 7DEC is of 371 OIL (or 3.170 production), I would have expected his oil fields to be 3.157 plus 371 for a total of 3.528 (or 35.280 production). Instead he got 38.600 That's a much bigger difference. Over 330 other unidentified OIL points around. Also, he had no philippines and was lacking of many bases in Borneo, so who knows... To be clear. The difference in OIL is (if we take the ultraconservative number of 3.528):  3.712ton perday  111.300 permonth  1.335.600 peryear With the above elements it's possible to understand the big changes occured. Having 1,335M more OIL peryear is a lot. Especially if we consider that a huge proportion of this OIL is protected in Onshu, far from enemy intervention, and that I am taking the conservative figures of 3.528. If I do take the less conservative (albeit, I believe, completely true) numbers... There are 210.000 OIL more per month and 2.530.800 peryear. Also, all this interesting oil flow doesn't need to be transported via TK/AO/xAK to Onshu since most of it it's already there, dramatically reducing costs associated with transport. FUEL Well. Not much to say here. Fuel comes from OIL...... Still, taking refinery production of Scen1: 9.315 BTS: 12.510 And HI fuel requirements of: Scen1: 13.900 fuel BTS: 14.700 We have that each month we have the following fuel situation: Scen1 has a value of 4.585 perday (9.315 minus 13.900) BTS has a value of  2.190 perday (12.510 minus 14.700) Let's imagine putting BTS industry on Scen1 oil production and refinery capacity... We have a value of 5.385 perday. Quite a lot. It's 137.550 monthly for Scen1 and 65.700 for BTS. The MOD's webpage speaks about capturing DEI immediately. Well, these reserves would last... 62 months wihtout any input from OIL refining (4.127.275 initial fuel stock divided by 65.700). It means that, without moving the fleet of course, fuel would last until the 3rd of March. March 1947. OTHER INDUSTRIES Long story short. There are: ARMAMENTS. 195 points more. 620 (scen1) vs 815 (BTS) VEHICLES. 108 points more. 72 (scen1) vs 180 (BTS) ENGINE PRODUCTION. 995 points more. 649 (scen1) vs 1.644 (BTS) AIRCRAFT. 281 points more. 375 (scen1) vs 656 (BTS) NavalShipyard. 346 points more. 1.384 (scen1) vs 1.730 (BTS) MerchantShipyard. 69 points more. 807 (scen1) vs 876 (BTS) Funnies part is that, yes, 427 of these points start disabled, but it's not a big deal to repair them. Costs associated with the above production are SCEN1 : 11.339 BTS: 15.168 It means that: SCEN1: we have a surplus of 2.560 HI points perday (13.900 minus 11.339) BTS: we have a negative of 468 points perday (14.700 minus 15.168) However, and here comes the funniest part, A) more HIs are readily capturable in the opening stage; B) there is no need to produce everything [such as so many armaments] from day1; C) given the mighty increase in OIL production, we can afford much higher HI levels. If we put the HI requirements of BTS on top of Scen1 raw materials availability and HI points availability, we have a negative of 1.268 points per day. It means 38.040 points permonth. Translated in 1E fighter terms, 38.040 means 1.057 fighters. Something quite relevant in 1941... Now, it's not finished of course. REPAIRING STUFF AROUND One may argue that the OIL has been increased but these HIs increases come at a price. False. Now, we have that there are both refineries and oilfields to be repaired. Plus few industrial centres scattered around. Without taking into consideration the fact that nobody obliges us to repair refineries, we can say that:  310 engine to be repaired  102 aircraft factory to be repaired  15 NavalShipyard to be repaired  2.200 OIL points to be repaired  1.125 REFINERIES to be repaired TOTAL of 3.752 industrial points to be repaired. It gives us a grand total of 3.752.000 supplies to invest to repair everything. Quite a lot. Now take into consideration how much we would have to spend to have the same industrial level on Scen1, though: delta in armaments is 195 delta in vehicles is 108 delta in engine is 995 delta in aircraft is 281 delta in NavalShipyard is 346 delta in MerchantShipyard is 69 delta in R&D factories already repaired is 49 TOTAL: 2.043 It means that in order to reach the same industrial level we would need to invest 2.043.000 supplies in Scen1. We forgot those interesting 60.570 more supplies we have permonth in BTS and we can see that the difference is made up in roughly 28 months. 2 years. Not a big deal. Especially if we consider that, if we don't repair those refineries we don't need, we have roughly the same expenditure between repairing stuff in BTS and have a comparable industry increase in Scen1. So, an eventual statement regarding the fact that these industrial centers begin "disabled" is pointless. Now, we would break the economy and we don't do that, but that's what would be needed. Let's make the difference because it's funny. 3.752.000 minus 2.043.000 gives a total of 1.709.000 more supplies needed to repair stuff in BTS. Another interesting aspect is the fact that the guy on the italian forum had the stratgic situation in the image at the bottom of the post. However, he had 11.650 LI. Meaning a net gain of 2.310 from the conquests in the DEI and in notoriously poor pacific areas. To me, it looks quite strange because the whole India before emergency reinforcements activation (1 hex south of Delhi) PLUS China (bar Chungking) netted me a grand total of 11.836 LI at 01/01/1943. It means that I conquered the whole India for a meager 187 LI? It means that, if we add few Chinese and Philippines LIs, conquering India and China actually makes you go in negative?! Conquering the whole Australia (bar Sidney) in another PBEM netted me way less, so it's pointless to even talk about that. Here is what he got at roughly 1 april 1942, to make clear I am not (completely) mad. Let me know if I went definitely insane of my calculations are correct. I'm Italian, we're not wellknown to be organised and precise
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< Message edited by ITAKLinus  12/16/2019 7:57:01 PM >
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Francesco
