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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/13/2019 11:16:50 AM   
JohnDillworth


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I was doing similar research on the Seafire. They got it to work, eventually, but it's short range continued to be a problem. It always had structural strength issues. During the Sciliy landings over half of the Seafires were inoperable within a few days due to damaged landing gear.

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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/13/2019 11:25:39 AM   
JohnDillworth


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As an aside the late/after-war Seafire in the grey-green paint is one of the most handsome single engine fighters ever to grace a carrier deck

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 12/13/2019 5:27:05 PM >


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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/13/2019 11:40:32 AM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
As to these comments, I just read through the two pages of Anachro's AAR carefully and thoughtfully, and there were no directly rude or malicious comments made about you or Michael. The majority of the comments were focused objectively on the BTS mod and the lack of communication regarding these economic changes, as well as data demonstrating just how far the changes had gone.

+1
In fact in all the cases with citing the economy numbers from the different versions or corrections of the mod I see only the players who cite the numbers. Not the modders themselves. The latter seem to refrain from clarity and instead keep relying on vague language wrt perceived problems and supposed solutions. I also get the impression of a tendency towards acting
offended or even insulted instead of a willingness for more openness.
Don't you think that the clearer is your info about the issues the more useful will be the outside help on the matter? And the lower will be the probability of some trailing mistake that will come to bite you later.

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Post #: 63
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/13/2019 11:56:48 AM   
John 3rd


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The fundamental problem is that there has been soooooooo much work over the years I cannot tell you the exact changes anymore. The computer that has those original notes died a horrific death over a year ago.

The best way to go about this is the reset that Michael has just done. He'll send the files back to me soon and then I shall very specifically detail the changes at Home. For example, the Naval Yards should be about 200 more then DaBabes begins with. This reflects the two new slipways added in the mid-to-late 1930s and slight expansions in two other yards. Hi should be 200-250 higher, Armaments slightly higher, etc... I know what was decided on in the beginning. It has simply become rather foggy over the passage of time. When one adds other hands into the work and LOTS of little tweaks that never were documented it is easy to see how things can get out-of-whack.

We'll get there.

Michael is locked in a mortal struggle with re-doing China. Truly hope Brian's vision works there to make that place a much more reliable stalemate. As is well known, I HATE GROUND WARFARE but have taken all of China except Kunming and Chungking in my game with Sean. STUPID. Japan should never have a chance at accomplishing something like that...




< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/13/2019 12:04:53 PM >


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Post #: 64
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/13/2019 12:11:31 PM   
John 3rd


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As to the differences between ground-based vs carrier-based, why not use something along the lines of the one real example we have with Japan? We use the template of the M2 vs the M3:






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Post #: 65
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/13/2019 1:33:56 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

As to the differences between ground-based vs carrier-based, why not use something along the lines of the one real example we have with Japan? We use the template of the M2 vs the M3:



The Spit V to the Seafire IIC is a drop of 369mph to 342mph or 27mph. That's a 7.3% drop. There is also a drop in manoeuvre in the low altitude bands that is not equivalent to the A6M models below.

Part of the reason the A6M models would not work for this is that they're not the same airframe design, the LBA plane being designed after the CV capable plane, not the CV design coming from an LBA. I'm sure you're aware of this, but there were significant fuselage changes to support the more powerful new Sakae 21 engine and modifications to the wings to increase roll rate.

The Spit Vb and Seafire IIC are based on the exact same model design factors but with the carrier necessary equipment being the major difference, while the A6M variants are really different enough to have been recognised as new by US pilots and given a different code name, "Hap," which didn't last long due to protests by Hap Arnold.

The George, the plane in question, was very heavy for a Japanese fighter due to the Homare engine that gave it so much power. In fact, it was heavier than the B5N Kate while being four feet shorter and having a wingspan more than ten feet smaller, slightly smaller than an A6M2.

(The USN Hellcats and Corsairs were in another category of course, but also had an enormous engine to pull them around and were built specifically to support that engine and the rigors of CV use, which added to the weight).

The George already had problems with its landing gear that led to delays in production after converting it from the floatplane variant.

N1K1

MTOW 9,526 lb / 4,321 kg

Length: 29.17 ft (8.89 m)
Width: 39.37 ft (12 m)

Power: 1 x Nakajima NK9H Homare 21 radial piston engine developing 1,990 horsepower.

B5N2

MTOW: 9,039 lb / 4,100 kg

Length: 10.3 m (33 ft 10 in)
Wingspan: 15.518 m (50 ft 11 in)

Powerplant: 1 × Nakajima Sakae 11 14-cylinder air-cooled radial piston engine, 750 kW (1,000 hp) for take-off
720 kW (970 hp) at 3,000 m (9,843 ft)

A6M2

MTOW: 6,164 lb / 2,796 kg

Length: 9.06 m (29 ft 9 in)
Wingspan: 12 m (39 ft 4 in)

Powerplant: 1 × Nakajima NK1C Sakae-12 14-cylinder air-cooled radial piston engine, 700 kW (940 hp) for take-off
710 kW (950 hp) at 4,200 m (13,800 ft)

Spit Mk VB

MTOW 6,700 lb / 3,039 kg

Length: 29 ft 11 in (9.12 m)
Wingspan: 36 ft 10 in (11.23 m)

Powerplant: 1 × Rolls-Royce Merlin 45[nb 16] supercharged V12 engine, 1,470 hp (1,096 kW) at 9,250 ft (2,819 m)


< Message edited by obvert -- 12/13/2019 2:44:53 PM >


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Post #: 66
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/13/2019 2:36:53 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
The fundamental problem is that there has been soooooooo much work over the years I cannot tell you the exact changes anymore. The computer that has those original notes died a horrific death over a year ago.

Well, you don't need the history of development actually, cause it does not matter when the mistake crept in or who did it. No witch hunting going on here. All you need is 1) some external reference setup that you know is good in a sense that it is well known and trusted (like DBB). And 2) a rough outline of your ideas about the changes from the reference to your mod - the ones you mentioned in your post actually.

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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 6:12:50 AM   
CaptBeefheart


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Gentlemen: Some great comments. I'd like to give thanks to the people who create mods on their hard work and dedication. I've only done a bit of scenario editing on the edges and know it's time consuming work subject to bugs.

I'd like to vote on the side of: "It doesn't matter who did what to the mod for whatever reason, but let's be accurate about the mod's starting conditions so both players know what they are getting into and can therefore have a more enjoyable experience."

Cheers,
CB

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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 7:21:31 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

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I have done some analysis of Japanese economy from the screens posted here and from the ones posted some time ago on the italian forum.

Considering I am a mediocre player, I might be completely wrong in what I state!

Also, I point out that there are little to none strategic considerations here. I would have one million of them, but I decided to avoid writing them: I love strategic considerations, but for the time being I'd rather prefer speaking about brute numbers.

Last, but not least in this start, I add that there is not a single comment on some other MOD's features (such as the whole discussion around George). I have my ideas, but, as stated in a previous post, everybody should be able to play even with flying Yamatos if that suits to them. I make a point of informing people of what they're goint to meet, though.


Now, let's begin.


RESOURCES
That's the situation:
Initial stock
Scen1 7.322.000
BTS 7.172.000
DELTA: -150.000

Production
Scen1 276.600
BTS 311.000
DELTA: +34.000

What does it mean? It means that there are 150.000 less resources in the warehouses on 7th dec but the production is higher. Precisely 34.000tons of resources more per-day.

Implications?

Quite easily.
In Scen1 there is a net requirement of
139.000 (for HIs) + 140.100 (for LIs) tons of resources per-day. TOTAL: 279.100tons per day.
With an easy calculation we have 276.00 (our daily production) minus 279.100 (our daly "expenditure") = -2.500
It means that we are short of 2.500tons of resources per day.

In BTS, and we'll see later, resources requirements are:
147.00 (for HIs) + 153.060 (for LIs) tons of resources per day. TOTAL: 300.060tons per day.
With the same easy calculation we have 311.00 (our daily production) minus 300.060 (our daily "expenditure") = 11.140
We therefore generate a surplus of 11.140 resources per-day.


Comparing the two above sets of data, results are pretty straightfoward.
There is a difference of 13.640tons of resources per-day between Scen1 and BTS. It also implies that, if BTS industry would have been put on top of Scen1 raw materials, we would have had a deficit of 23.460tons per day. Quite a big difference.


NOTE: Having a surplus in resources means a lot to any Japanese player. It's not a matter of their availability, since most of Japs conquer enough of them in the DEI, it's a matter of transport.
Conquering many locations in China stops Japanese needs, but it doesn't really enable to make large and deep stocks. Having so many resources readily available means 3 things:
1) Japan is much less scared by an attack on Kurili axis
2) Japan needs much less fuel to haul resources in case the player wants to make a little bit of stock
3) Industry can run at full speed and be increased without the usual increased burden of transferring more stuff to the locations in which the industry has been expanded.



LIGHT INDUSTRIES

Here is quite straightforward.


Scen1 has a production of 9.340 LI.
BTS has a production of 10.204 LI.

It means that there are 864tons of supply made per-day of difference. Not that much in theory. In practice it means a lot. With added resource base and these industries readily available, Japan can feed industrial expansion through these supplies. It's almost 26.000tons per month. If you consider that an infantry division not fighting consumes around 1.500tons per month, these industries can feed more than 17 divisions.
Provided that the 1.500tons/month is correct, of course.

Also, and that's the best part, LI expansion is wonderful if coupled with increased resource base. Basically, Japan rarely needs more HIs in mid- to late game. Supplies are needed. Problem being that, in order to have them we need to expand early HIs. It means that we have a positive ROI after a long time and we increase the burden on our logistical network. Also, and that's the biggest element, we consume fuel to run HIs.
With more resources and already built LIs, instead, we have a relatively weak increas in resources consumption, no need to ship and burn fuel and we have those damn supplies. Wonderful.
Sadly, it cannot be done in Scen1 because 1 light industry repaired = 1.000 supplies. At 1ton of supply produced per-day, we have recuperated our investment very very late in the game. Here there is no such a tradeoff.



HEAVY INDUSTRIES

A lot of fun here for Japanese aficionados. So much time spent on tables trying to fix everything in a decent manner.


Scen1 has 13.900 HI from the industrial screen. In reality, that amounts to 6.950 HIs at 7-Dec. They do consume 20xRES and 2xFUEL per-HI point per-day. They do produce 2xHI points and 2xSUPPLIES points per-day.

Scen1 has therefore a production/consumption of:
-13.900 supplies produced per-day
-13.900 HI points produced per-day
-139.000 resources consumed per-day
-13.900 fuel consumed per-day


Now BTS, starting at 14.700 HIs:
-14.700 supplies produced per-day
-14.700 HI points produced per-day
-147.000 resources consumed per-day
-14.700 fuel consumed per-day



The difference seems little to non-experts. It's instead quite big. 14.700 - 13.900 gives a grand total of 800. 800HI per-day and 800 supplies per-day. It implies 24.000 supplies more per month.
And 667 1E figher more per-month (800*30/36, where 800 are the daily HIs of delta, 30 days of the month and 36 the HI cost of a 1E fighter, 18HI for the engine and 18HI for the airframe respectively).

It's quite a big jump.



REFINERIES

We are approaching the big topic, OIL, but we're not yet there.

Refineries use OIL as input in order to produce FUEL and SUPPLIES.

In Scen1 the daily production is as follow:
- 9.315 FUEL
- 1.035 SUPPLIES

Big challenge is to keep refineries supplied with OIL, though.

In BTS everything changes.
We have 12.510 fuel produced per-day (+3.195 daily or +95.850 monthly).
And 1.390 supplies.

These differences look, as usual, small to non-expert eyes. They are instead quite substantial. Delta in supplies per-month is indeed 10.650


OIL


By far the most important raw material on the map.

Here we have a lot of changes.

Initial production for Scen1 is 2.240 per-day. It means 224 OIL points (Palembang has 900 if I am not wrong).
Initial production for BTS is 5.950 per-day. 595 points.

Quite a big difference.



Funniest element is that also the rest of the map has many more oilfields available to the Japanese.

From the game in which I analysed the economy for the italian guy on the italian forum, it turned out he had a production of 38.600.


Now, I made some math. The difference between Scen1 and BTS is 5.950 (or 595 OIL points) minus 2.240 (or 224 OIL points), leading to 3.710 (or 371 OIL points difference).

But there is also some difference around in the map as far as I can see.

The guy had the usual DEI, plus Magwe. Plus China (which nets other 160 OIL points).
So, how is it possible to have a production of 38.600 without external "help"?

Let me explain:
SCEN1
224 initial OIL points
2.473 in the DEI
300 Magwe
160 China
TOTAL = 3.157 (or.... 31.570 production)


Now, given that the difference at 7-DEC is of 371 OIL (or 3.170 production), I would have expected his oil fields to be 3.157 plus 371 for a total of 3.528 (or 35.280 production).

Instead he got 38.600

That's a much bigger difference. Over 330 other unidentified OIL points around. Also, he had no philippines and was lacking of many bases in Borneo, so who knows...


To be clear.

The difference in OIL is (if we take the ultra-conservative number of 3.528):
- 3.712ton per-day
- 111.300 per-month
- 1.335.600 per-year

With the above elements it's possible to understand the big changes occured. Having 1,335M more OIL per-year is a lot. Especially if we consider that a huge proportion of this OIL is protected in Onshu, far from enemy intervention, and that I am taking the conservative figures of 3.528.

If I do take the less conservative (albeit, I believe, completely true) numbers...

There are 210.000 OIL more per month and 2.530.800 per-year.



Also, all this interesting oil flow doesn't need to be transported via TK/AO/xAK to Onshu since most of it it's already there, dramatically reducing costs associated with transport.


FUEL

Well. Not much to say here. Fuel comes from OIL......

Still, taking refinery production of
-Scen1: 9.315
-BTS: 12.510
And HI fuel requirements of:
-Scen1: 13.900 fuel
-BTS: 14.700

We have that each month we have the following fuel situation:
-Scen1 has a value of -4.585 per-day (9.315 minus 13.900)
-BTS has a value of - 2.190 per-day (12.510 minus 14.700)

Let's imagine putting BTS industry on Scen1 oil production and refinery capacity... We have a value of -5.385 per-day.

Quite a lot. It's -137.550 monthly for Scen1 and -65.700 for BTS.

The MOD's webpage speaks about capturing DEI immediately. Well, these reserves would last... 62 months wihtout any input from OIL refining (4.127.275 initial fuel stock divided by 65.700). It means that, without moving the fleet of course, fuel would last until the 3rd of March.

March 1947.



OTHER INDUSTRIES

Long story short.

There are:
-ARMAMENTS. 195 points more. 620 (scen1) vs 815 (BTS)
-VEHICLES. 108 points more. 72 (scen1) vs 180 (BTS)
-ENGINE PRODUCTION. 995 points more. 649 (scen1) vs 1.644 (BTS)
-AIRCRAFT. 281 points more. 375 (scen1) vs 656 (BTS)
-NavalShipyard. 346 points more. 1.384 (scen1) vs 1.730 (BTS)
-MerchantShipyard. 69 points more. 807 (scen1) vs 876 (BTS)

Funnies part is that, yes, 427 of these points start disabled, but it's not a big deal to repair them.


Costs associated with the above production are

-SCEN1 : 11.339
-BTS: 15.168

It means that:
-SCEN1: we have a surplus of 2.560 HI points per-day (13.900 minus 11.339)
-BTS: we have a negative of 468 points per-day (14.700 minus 15.168)

However, and here comes the funniest part, A) more HIs are readily capturable in the opening stage; B) there is no need to produce everything [such as so many armaments] from day-1; C) given the mighty increase in OIL production, we can afford much higher HI levels.


If we put the HI requirements of BTS on top of Scen1 raw materials availability and HI points availability, we have a negative of 1.268 points per day.
It means 38.040 points per-month.

Translated in 1E fighter terms, 38.040 means 1.057 fighters. Something quite relevant in 1941...


Now, it's not finished of course.

REPAIRING STUFF AROUND

One may argue that the OIL has been increased but these HIs increases come at a price.

False.


Now, we have that there are both refineries and oilfields to be repaired. Plus few industrial centres scattered around.

Without taking into consideration the fact that nobody obliges us to repair refineries, we can say that:
- 310 engine to be repaired
- 102 aircraft factory to be repaired
- 15 NavalShipyard to be repaired
- 2.200 OIL points to be repaired
- 1.125 REFINERIES to be repaired
TOTAL of 3.752 industrial points to be repaired.

It gives us a grand total of 3.752.000 supplies to invest to repair everything.

Quite a lot.


Now take into consideration how much we would have to spend to have the same industrial level on Scen1, though:
-delta in armaments is 195
-delta in vehicles is 108
-delta in engine is 995
-delta in aircraft is 281
-delta in NavalShipyard is 346
-delta in MerchantShipyard is 69
-delta in R&D factories already repaired is 49
TOTAL: 2.043

It means that in order to reach the same industrial level we would need to invest 2.043.000 supplies in Scen1.

We forgot those interesting 60.570 more supplies we have per-month in BTS and we can see that the difference is made up in roughly 28 months. 2 years. Not a big deal.

Especially if we consider that, if we don't repair those refineries we don't need, we have roughly the same expenditure between repairing stuff in BTS and have a comparable industry increase in Scen1.

So, an eventual statement regarding the fact that these industrial centers begin "disabled" is pointless.

Now, we would break the economy and we don't do that, but that's what would be needed.

Let's make the difference because it's funny.

3.752.000 minus 2.043.000 gives a total of 1.709.000 more supplies needed to repair stuff in BTS.


Another interesting aspect is the fact that the guy on the italian forum had the stratgic situation in the image at the bottom of the post. However, he had 11.650 LI. Meaning a net gain of 2.310 from the conquests in the DEI and in notoriously poor pacific areas. To me, it looks quite strange because the whole India before emergency reinforcements activation (1 hex south of Delhi) PLUS China (bar Chungking) netted me a grand total of 11.836 LI at 01/01/1943.
It means that I conquered the whole India for a meager 187 LI? It means that, if we add few Chinese and Philippines LIs, conquering India and China actually makes you go in negative?!
Conquering the whole Australia (bar Sidney) in another PBEM netted me way less, so it's pointless to even talk about that.

Here is what he got at roughly 1 april 1942, to make clear I am not (completely) mad.









Let me know if I went definitely insane of my calculations are correct.

I'm Italian, we're not well-known to be organised and precise






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by ITAKLinus -- 12/16/2019 7:57:01 PM >


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Post #: 69
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 8:30:55 PM   
durnedwolf


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I thought the whole RA series was based off of the Big Babes Scenario?

Does Stock Scenario #2 have expansions in the industries or does it just start out with more supplies. resources, fuel, and oil stored?

In the end, Japan gets more toys from the alternative history. I think part of the "modest?" increase to HI etc., was to allow the Japanese player to purchase and play with a few more capitol ships, and that Japan still has more ships they can produce than points available, and thus must choose carefully their naval production.

The allies get more toys too (with no production system to worry over). All part-and-parcel to the alternative history.

All I will say is that I think the RA team came up with fun scenarios to play and poke around in.

It's also been my observation that few Japanese players (at least that post in the forums) select Stock Scenario #1.

In the end, these are games and not simulations. Games are supposed to be fun for both sides. I suppose two players could try to simulate the actual entire war by insuring that all of the engagements in a game happen on the correct date with the correct numbers of ships, aircraft, and troops for those battles but I can't even imagine the level of coordination it would take between the two sides for that to happen.

Players took issue with Stock #1 too. That was the driving force for the Big Babes scenarios - to get all of the ships in that were ever part of the pacific theatre. If I recall correctly, Big Babes also made adjustments on penetration factors for munitions, armor ratings for ships, gun ratings for AC, and something for AAA too. I *think* those are all rolled into the RA mods.

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Post #: 70
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 8:39:07 PM   
BillBrown


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In the RA series of scenarios refineries do not produce supply.

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Post #: 71
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 8:39:33 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 321
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
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quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

I thought the whole RA series was based off of the Big Babes Scenario?

Does Stock Scenario #2 have expansions in the industries or does it just start out with more supplies. resources, fuel, and oil stored?

In the end, Japan gets more toys from the alternative history. I think part of the "modest?" increase to HI etc., was to allow the Japanese player to purchase and play with a few more capitol ships, and that Japan still has more ships they can produce than points available, and thus must choose carefully their naval production.

The allies get more toys too (with no production system to worry over). All part-and-parcel to the alternative history.

All I will say is that I think the RA team came up with fun scenarios to play and poke around in.

It's also been my observation that few Japanese players (at least that post in the forums) select Stock Scenario #1.

In the end, these are games and not simulations. Games are supposed to be fun for both sides. I suppose two players could try to simulate the actual entire war by insuring that all of the engagements in a game happen on the correct date with the correct numbers of ships, aircraft, and troops for those battles but I can't even imagine the level of coordination it would take between the two sides for that to happen.

Players took issue with Stock #1 too. That was the driving force for the Big Babes scenarios - to get all of the ships in that were ever part of the pacific theatre. If I recall correctly, Big Babes also made adjustments on penetration factors for munitions, armor ratings for ships, gun ratings for AC, and something for AAA too. I *think* those are all rolled into the RA mods.




The whole point of the above post from me is that increases are not "modest" at all.


If the MOD's tagline would have been "fantasy stuff for japan produced thanks to fantasy raw materials and industries", I think nobody would have ever checked the industrial panel.

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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 8:41:21 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

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Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

In the RA series of scenarios refineries do not produce supply.




Thanks! I didn't remember.


I guess the whole point of repairing those 1.125 refineries is gone, then

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RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 8:49:31 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 851
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

I thought the whole RA series was based off of the Big Babes Scenario?

Does Stock Scenario #2 have expansions in the industries or does it just start out with more supplies. resources, fuel, and oil stored?

In the end, Japan gets more toys from the alternative history. I think part of the "modest?" increase to HI etc., was to allow the Japanese player to purchase and play with a few more capitol ships, and that Japan still has more ships they can produce than points available, and thus must choose carefully their naval production.

The allies get more toys too (with no production system to worry over). All part-and-parcel to the alternative history.

All I will say is that I think the RA team came up with fun scenarios to play and poke around in.

It's also been my observation that few Japanese players (at least that post in the forums) select Stock Scenario #1.

In the end, these are games and not simulations. Games are supposed to be fun for both sides. I suppose two players could try to simulate the actual entire war by insuring that all of the engagements in a game happen on the correct date with the correct numbers of ships, aircraft, and troops for those battles but I can't even imagine the level of coordination it would take between the two sides for that to happen.

Players took issue with Stock #1 too. That was the driving force for the Big Babes scenarios - to get all of the ships in that were ever part of the pacific theatre. If I recall correctly, Big Babes also made adjustments on penetration factors for munitions, armor ratings for ships, gun ratings for AC, and something for AAA too. I *think* those are all rolled into the RA mods.




The whole point of the above post from me is that increases are not "modest" at all.


If the MOD's tagline would have been "fantasy stuff for japan produced thanks to fantasy raw materials and industries", I think nobody would have ever checked the industrial panel.


And I stand by what I said. RA are alternative histories. Stock scenario #1 was the game's closest to historical. JWE and crew did the Babes versions that might-could be closer to what was historically available for both Japan and the Allies during the actual war. I don't think any of the Babes versions have an "alternative history" so if realism above and beyond Stock #1 is desired I'd like to recommend you examine the Babes mods.

Respectfully, from my perspective, you are making comparisons between an apple and an orange.



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Post #: 74
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 10:24:07 PM   
Anachro


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I would agree that the correct comparison is between RA/BTS and DBB. That said, the issue here is that the current version of BTS significantly expands resources/oil production in both the domestic provinces and SRE beyond what it is set to in DBB (and the initial stockpiles are not much different from stock/DBB). On its own, this is fine. I'd have no issue with it, though I'd dislike it personally for the reasons I stated above (I think the scenario more interesting when you account for the ramifications of a Japanese decision to greatly expand its industry and OOB). A modder is perfectly fine to do so, creating a fantasy scenario for a pure even chess match if he so wishes.

But this is not what the mod page states to be the case, and as such its a bit deceptive (though I do not believe in a malicious way). As John and NyGiants have stated here, much of the economy stuff was done by others such as potentially FATR for reasons to which we can only guess. Here is the mod page quote, again:

quote:

Supply and fuel reserves start at a much reduced state. The Japanese MUST take the DEI as fast as possible!


quote:

New and expanded Naval Yards, Heavy Industry, and Armaments are added at tremendous cost for the Japanese economy as the Admiral attempts to prepare Japan for a possibly long war.


Obviously, the implication is that the resource/fuel situation for Japan will be more precarious in-game. Beyond it, no mention is made of changes to fuel/resource production and yet they are greatly expanded. Therefore, there is a misrepresentation here of the true strategic situation in the mod. There is no immense cost to the Japanese economy for all the changes given; indeed, it's actually in an easier situation.

I will state again, there's nothing wrong with the situation, but be more open about it in your design notes. However, I will stand by my critique that the mod as alternate history is more interesting/plausible with the resource/oil production brought back to its original DBB state.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/16/2019 10:26:16 PM >

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Post #: 75
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 10:44:17 PM   
Bearcat2

 

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Excellent analysis ITAKLinus, thank you.





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Post #: 76
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/16/2019 11:49:55 PM   
spence

 

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quote:

Michael is locked in a mortal struggle with re-doing China. Truly hope Brian's vision works there to make that place a much more reliable stalemate. As is well known, I HATE GROUND WARFARE but have taken all of China except Kunming and Chungking in my game with Sean. STUPID. Japan should never have a chance at accomplishing something like that...


If Japan is not STUCK with the majority of her Army TIED UP HOLDING WHAT THEY'VE ALREADY CONQUERED in China by Dec 7th 1941 then any and all modifications to resources, oil, production and OOB are just "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" as far as any relationship to real history or even alternative history are concerned.

THe key is to tie the Japanese to the railroads/major roads existing in China. Tank regiments racing along trails filling up with gasoline from the local gas stations is just plain BS and completely unrealistic.

It seems impossible to differentiate support from motorized support in a way that allows units with motorized support to "stray" further from a railroad. Perhaps if EVERY SINGLE HEX in a valid supply line had a significant garrison requirement for the Japanese Player (to protect against bandits or whatever I would suggest a lower garrison requirement for the Allies (but maybe not so even the US/UK would be inclined to avoid "a land war in Asia")). I'd suggest an even higher garrison requirement for minor roads/trails (for both sides) so that the Japanese Player's attacks would be channeled more (since the US/UK Player is not going to be that tempted to get involved in such a land war).

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Post #: 77
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/17/2019 9:48:18 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

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Another caveat emptor.


As we all know, there are many CVs/CVLs in production. However, and that's quite interesting, there are many interesting consequences coming from their arrival dates.

I don't go into the detail of calculations, but here is the result:

Difference between Scen1 and BTS:
- SCEN1 has:
1942 => 2xCV + 2xCVL
1943 => 0
1944 => 3xCV + 1xCVL
1945 => 3xCV + 1xCVL

-BTS has:
1942 => 3xCV + 3xCVL (1xCVL is technically in December 1941)
1943 => 2xCV + 2xCVL
1944 => 2xCV
1945 => 1xCV + 1xCVL


-DELTA between Scen1 and BTS:
1942 => 1xCV and 1xCVL more in BTS
1943 => 2xCV 2xCVL more in BTS
1944 => 1xCV and 1xCVL less in BTS
1945 => 2xCV less in BTS

NOTE: I haven't put into question the relative quality of these ships. For example, I considered producing Shinano in Scen1 even if it is notoriously a piece of crap.
Also, funny conversions aren't taken into account. It's a whole other topic.


What does all this mean?

It means that on 7-DEC there is the possibility for Japan to massively accelerate many ships paying them little.
In other words, Japanese players in Scen1 can and do accelerate CVs but they come very late, therefore burdening the economy for a very long period of time.

Industrial costs are roughly the same. Average cost for Scen1 is 71,69 NavalShipyard points per-ship. Average cost for BTS is 68,92 per-ship.

Now. What happens in BTS.

It happens that, thanks to the big initial Naval Shipyards available, it's possible to accelerate the first bunch of CV/CVLs. They do all come online within the first 6 months.
I am speaking of:
- CVL Nisshin
- CV Junyo
- CV hiyo
- CVL Ryuho
- CV Kaimon
- CVL Aso

At this point, 01/06/1942, one can accelerate the others which will arrive at the following dates if my math is correct:
CV Taikaku 14/10/1942
CVL Shinryu 06/11/1942
CV Renkaku 16/01/1943
CVL Unryu 22/02/1943
CV Taiho 22/06/1943
CV Katsuragi 25/08/1943
CVL Kurama 22/09/1943
CV Kasigi 26/09/1943

NOTE: it would be much more efficient to accelerate from day-1 ships which are going to arrive latest in the game instead of accelerating the first comers. However, for the sake of clarity and for giving as much space as possible in favour of BTS industrial posture, I decided instead to simulate somebody accelerating the first comers first and then the others. It's inefficient, though.



What does the stuff above mean?

Quite easily, they mean that:
A) Japanese expanded shipyards allow the player to accelerate way more ships than normal.
B) Japanese side doesn't carry the burden of these fantastic fleet.

Regarding point B). What's important to understand is that, since ships arrive well before, Japanese player is going to gain huge amounts of HIs.

Let's make an example. 1.710 NavalShipyards consume 5.130 HI points per-day.
From end of February 1943 I need only 936 NavalShipyard Points dedicated to CVs/CVLs since only CV Taiho, CV Katsuragi, CVL Kurama and CV Kasigi are to be completed.

What happens? It happens that 1.710 - 936 = 774
These are the NavalShipyardPoints that we can theoretically turn off at, let's say, 01/03/1943.

What does it mean? It means that, while the normal Scen1 Jap has to keep his NavShipyard running, here CVs come out of them earlier, allowing the player to redirect his industrial efforts on other stuff.
Those theoretical 774 Naval Shipyard Points saved, for example, account for 1.935 1E fighters per-month. It's not a little number. If we count the remaining part of 1943 only, we have that there are 19.737 more 1E fighters.


As it is shown above, it's quite interesting to note how changes such as anticipating CV/CVL launching dates have major impacts on other things.
A non-expert eye can see that and think it's only a matter of having to face them before the usual time, while, in reality, this change impacts hugely other elements and tradeoffs.
At glance, nobody would ever think that having CV/CVL launching anticipated would translate in almost 20.000 more fighters for 10 months in 1943. However, these are the tradeoffs at stake.

ça va sans dire that there are other required naval productions such as DDs etcetc and so it's unlikely that the Japanese player simply shuts down everything. It should also be noted, on the other side, that it's possible to produce at normal speed several hundred naval shipyard points worth ships while we accelerate our CV/CVL. Also, I have simplified the calculations in a very forgiving manner for BTS. In a game I would have optimised more doing more math, but I guess it's sufficient this way.

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Post #: 78
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 12:33:07 AM   
John 3rd


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Hey Guys. Been busy with work and Christmas stuff coming up.

That is one HECK of a piece of comparative work ITAKLinus. Well done Sir!

Michael has taken the Home Islands back to DBB Stock. He has sent me the files since I have Thurs--Fri off and can do some serious Mod work. I intend to Post here as I do everything to set the HI for what they are SUPPOSED to be. The question I have for ITAKLinus is--would you like to look at the files for comparative work once I have gotten my work done on them? Can always use a fresh set of eyes looking at it! Let me know.

As to ship production, I have had to juggle production all through my current campaign with Sean. I've further expanded yards during the war an still cannot produce what I want. Here is my current production in early-Sept 1943:







Attachment (1)

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Post #: 79
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 12:35:49 AM   
John 3rd


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My Real Life experiences within the Mod has been one of continually trying to get more FUEL into the HI instead of Oil. Supply is OK but iffy in the HI and my Heavy Industry Stockpile is only around 190,000 presently.


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Post #: 80
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 7:31:40 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

My Real Life experiences within the Mod has been one of continually trying to get more FUEL into the HI instead of Oil. Supply is OK but iffy in the HI and my Heavy Industry Stockpile is only around 190,000 presently.



ITAKLinus has done a masterful job above. Like Mike Solli, he works in logistics, so we can be pretty sure he's looking hard at how this all works.

This MOD makes a lot of changes supposing military decisions were different during the interwar periods. What remains the same though is the economy. As BTS has been set up the economic figures were changed in order to make the greatly enlarged OOB, airframe, engine and ship manufacturing actually work to bring the game into the later stages.

If those changes are not made, this MOD won't be playable, even by a conservative IJ player who gets to the historical perimeter and stops. He's put relative numbers above to show this. The deficits would be too great in terms of resources and oil to support the expanded industry, and without the expanded industry you can't get all of the supply for those airframes and engine factories. He's shown it would take the conquest of all of China and India (with industry, resources and oil relatively undamaged) to equal the availability of those in BTS to make it all work.

Your HI is low because you're using so much to make things like airframes and ships and armament. In the "It's the Economy, Stupid" AAR there are a lot of commentary to this effect by PaxMondo and others who noticed the early war production is off the scales by stock/DBB starting points, or what most players make in that era.

So the question then is whether you want to stick to the idea this is somehow historically possible, or just let all of that go and make this a complete alternate world MOD where somehow Japan has more economic ability and therefore can do all of the things you want with ships and planes.

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Post #: 81
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 1:41:56 PM   
John 3rd


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Good comments Obvert.

The goal within the BTS World is:
1. To have an expanded shipyard capability (2 80 Point Slipways added) with some minor additions elsewhere (40 more points worth).
2. Expanded HI and LI to accommodate the IJN's increased preparedness
3. Expanded Armaments to handle the slightly increased/changed IJN LCUs, additional ship board guns, and sundry needs
4. Expanded IJN Aircraft Research and slight bump to 12-7-41 production

Those are the salient points of addition.

To then reflect those changes the starting Fuel, Oil, Resources, and Supply must be adjusted downward.

This is the economic starting point for Dec 7th.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/19/2019 2:09:57 PM >


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Post #: 82
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 2:10:22 PM   
GetAssista

 

Posts: 2280
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
My Real Life experiences within the Mod has been one of continually trying to get more FUEL into the HI instead of Oil.

This is no mystery at all. You are famous here as the guy who runs his fleets around all year long ;)

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Post #: 83
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 2:18:42 PM   
John 3rd


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Not ALL year. Just 11.5 months...


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/19/2019 2:20:07 PM >


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Post #: 84
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 2:19:41 PM   
John 3rd


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OK. Opened up Michael's Zip File and downloaded all the files.

Have to run Sean's turn first and will then get down to serious work.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/19/2019 2:20:38 PM >


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Post #: 85
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 3:06:59 PM   
JohnDillworth


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I still think some of the starting CVLs stretch credibility. They are quite fast with thickly armored flight decks that most bombs bounce off of. With non working torpedoes and bombs that don't penetrate flight decks the Allies have little chance of harming these. And then some convert to full size CVs? Nice ships if you can get em. Also, what constitutes a "small heavy bomber force". A dozen? A couple of hundred? With player defined production there seems to be little check to the growth of 4 engine bombers

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Post #: 86
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 4:01:54 PM   
Cheesesteak


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I still think some of the starting CVLs stretch credibility. They are quite fast with thickly armored flight decks that most bombs bounce off of. With non working torpedoes and bombs that don't penetrate flight decks the Allies have little chance of harming these. And then some convert to full size CVs? Nice ships if you can get em. Also, what constitutes a "small heavy bomber force". A dozen? A couple of hundred? With player defined production there seems to be little check to the growth of 4 engine bombers



Contrarian/devil's advocate time!

On the importance of credibility: Balance and enjoyment to play should take precedent.

John, I would caution you to not over course-correct and strip the IJ economy bare. You're never going to please everyone with this mod (even purists disagree on scen 1 vs 2). A clear change log enables players to walk in with an understanding of the delta between stock and BTS.

Speaking selfishly, it would be a shame to see the economy become so tight that it discourages all but the most efficient Japanese player from having a go. 2 cents, and apologies to Dillworth if I come off a disagreeing brat.



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Post #: 87
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 4:51:34 PM   
John 3rd


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No issues and I think your tone is good.

To JD's comments:
1. The Japanese get a total of 4 Daitai of HB. The Daitai can be built up to 36 planes each. This is what I have currently. The Japanese have one with 5 planes on Dec 7th, gain another in Aug-42, another in April-43, and a final one in Dec 43. If the Japanese player wants them then they have a max build-out of 144 planes. The original LIZ is obsolete at the start of the war, gets one upgrade in late-42/early-43, and then they wait for RITA in mid-45. If the Japanese player builds them then they are hugely expensive but of value (as long as they don't tangle with Fighters).

2. The only CVLs that apply to JD's thinking are not CVLs but the two CAVs. These are the Hybrid CA/CVL allowed in the London Treaty. The G.6 Class is a proto-Soryu design. They are taken from Jentschura's Warships of the Imperial Japanese Navy: 1869-1945. They are the G.6 Class. Two ships: Kushiro and ToKachi. Will Post a Screenshot of them:




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/19/2019 5:06:23 PM >


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Post #: 88
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 4:54:44 PM   
John 3rd


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As with all six of the CLV (2 American) and CAV (2 Japanese, 1 Australian, and 1 New Zealand) the ships are allowed to be converted. The G.6 in Sept 1942 to this:





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/19/2019 5:05:32 PM >


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Post #: 89
RE: New Between the Storms Direction - 12/19/2019 4:57:05 PM   
John 3rd


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The starting CVLs are normal with any scenario except the addition of the Aso-Class who are built on the hulls of a Japanese CL.

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Post #: 90
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